Cambridgeshire trends

SATURDAY 24/9/16

NEWMARKET 4.10

THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Market

Favs won twice and second favs just once.

The first 3 in the betting won 9

There have been a number of shocks with winners at 100/1, 40/1, 33/1 & 25/1

On the other hand, the first 9 in th betting won 15 renewals

All in all, the market is not the best of guides for this.

Weights

17 carried 9-3 or less

16 carried 8-4 Plus

Official Rating (OR)

Corresponds with the weights trends in that 18 had an OR of 103 or less

Age

No 7yo or older won

 6yo's have the best wins to runs strike rate with 4-70 (6%) with 3yo's next best on 5-137 (4%)

5yo's have the worst record with 3-122 (2%) and 4 yo's are 7-231 (3%)

Profile

ALL had run 1-11 times over the previous year

ALL had run 8 or less times that season

17 had finished in the first 5 in their last run

18 had won over a mile or more

Trainers

John Gosden has won this twice, but his top weight, GM Hopkins, would be winning this off 112, a mark 8lbs higher than any other over the past 19 runnings

David Elsworth has had two winners of this as well and similar remarks apply as to the above. Both are 5yo's too, which, while such winners are not unheard of, statistically have has only a third of the chance of 6yos

Marcus Tregoning has also won this twice  and with the same horse, the 7yo Bronze Angel, who would be the oldest winner in our period

The Noseda yard is in form with 2 winners from 5 runners in the last two weeks. He saddles the 4yo Brave Zolo, who, though his age isn't ideal, is shortlisted

Finally Ed Vaughan has his string in fine fettle and he runs the 5 yo Interconnection. Other than the age, a decent trends profile at a decent price,  but the record of 5yo's puts me off.

CONCLUSION

With 35 runners, this is one of the toughest races to call of the year. Looking at the betting pattern, it has a similar shape to the Grand National, with the fav 8/1 at present and the second fav 12/1.

Therefore any selections are sporting ones and to small stakes only. Any of the below could win.

First the trends shortlist, in card order:

11) Brave Zolo: 12/1 co second fav . If 3 or 6yo i would fancy, but second favs record not inspiring

12) Treasury Notes: a 20/1 4 yo with the same reservation viz age

22) Eric The Red ditto  for this 22/1 4yo

26) Dolphin Vista is a 3yo with a lively outsiders chance at 40/1

However, my short shortlist is:

The 3yo 12/1 co second fav, BANKSEA has strong claims but with reservations about second fav status

As has fellow 3yo, 16/1 co fifth fav , VERY TALENTED

But; I have come down on the side of the 6yo, the 18/1 ninth fav, KNIGHT OWL who is the only one of the shortlist who has everything going for him including age.

He is my sole each way bet at 20/1 with Bet365 or Corals.

 

 

 

AYR GOLD CUP TRENDS

SAT 17/9/16

AYR 3.45 AYR GOLD CUP

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Market

Favs and second favs have not fared well with just one apiece winning

However, the betting is still a decent guide as 17 winners were from the first 10 in the betting

Two 33/1 shots have won but all the rest were returned 20/1 or less

Weights

ALL carried 9-9 or less, 18 humped 9-6- and 17 hauled 9-4 or below

Official Hanidcap Rating (OR)

ALL rated 109 or less and 18 with an OR of 105-

Age

4yo's have the best record with 8 wins from 141 runs (6%), 6yo's are next best with 4-88 (5%) and 5yo' are 5-127 (4%). Not a lot in it on the face of it, but, statistically, 4yo's have a 50% better  chance of winning than 5yo's.

Profile

18 ran 4-13 times over the previous year

18 ran 4-10 times that  season

12 posted a first 4  finish last time

18 won over 6 furlongs plus

ALL RAN over 6F plus

Only 12 were distance  winners

Interestingly, and  perhaps related, 10 had won over further. As so often in these big sprint handicaps,  they have to see out the trip in a big field, fast run, race.

ALL last ran 60 days ago or less

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow it  down to 4, in card order:

G FORCE

This 6yo is a fascinating Irish runner for Adrian Paul Keating. He was a Group 1 winner almost exactly two years ago at Haydock over this trip and in a big (17 runner) field.

This is only his fifth run for Keatley and, if he runs anywhere near his form of two years ago, he will romp home off a mark of 102. But his record since puts me off and that "if" is enough to put me off (i will probably kick myselfaround 3.50!).

The niggle, trends-wise, is he his clear second fav and they have only taken this once in the last 19 runnings.

He has no win beyond 6 furlongs, but you don't win Group 1 races at the wrong trip! If you fancy him, i wouldn't put you off  as he has a near perfect trends profile.

FINAL VENTURE

5-14 wins for this lightly raced 4yo. True the most recent form has been over 5 furlongs but two previous wins at this trip indicate a good chance he will run to the line. As a 4yo, the best on trends.

POYLE VINNIE is 4-25 on turf and, though he creeps into the outsider end of the betting at 20/1, he has a lot to prove for me. He is 0-7 (once placed) in big  fields of 16 plus, 0-7 on flat tracks (5 placed though) and his strike rate when reappearing quickly is 4-7 when running 14 days or less after his last run, but 2-23 when running 15 days or more later. Not for me.

SIR ROBERT CHEVAL

Another intriguing one, not least because trained by sprint king Robert Cowell. This one has never won over 6 furlongs but,  then again 7 of the past 19 weren't distance winners either. If the trip doesn't suit it won't be stamina that's lacking as this 5yo has won over  7 furlongs and a  mile!

A fast run 6 furlongs could be right up his street and, other than being a 5yo, he has a perfect trends profile. Trip wise, who am i to argue with Robert Cowell?

Going off today's times the going is hovering between Good and Good to Soft. A dry night is forecast, so probably will ride on the slower side of Good tomorrow. This shoudn't inconvenience either of my two selections.

They reckon  the place to be drawn tomorrow but lets's hope they are wrong as i go for FINAL VENTURE (drawn 20) and SIR ROBERT CHEVAL (2).

The former is best odds 25/1 with Paddy Power and the latter is best priced 28/1 with BetVictor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

SATURDAY BIG RACE TRENDS (UK and IRELAND)

DONCASTER 3.45 THE ST LEGER (G1)

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Market

11 favs won but only 2 second favs

There has been a winner at 25/1  but the other 18 were returned 14/1 or less

18 came from the first 6 in the betting

Ratings (OR)

ALL 15 winners that were rated had an OR of 108 or more

All the last 10 had an OR

Profile

ALL had run 3-7 times in the last year

17 had 3-5 runs that season

ALL posted a first 4 finish last time

9 won their last race

Proven stamina has not been as important as you would think:

ALL had won over 1 mile plus

And 15 at 10F +

BUT ALL had RAN over 12F or further

CONCLUSION

If we look at the four horses currently priced 12/1 or less Houses of Parliament has had too many races this season as has Sword Fiighter  who also finished out of the top 4 last time.

Boringly, this leaves us with the first two in the betting, 8/11 fav Idaho and 4/1 2F Muntahaa.

It rode Good to Firm today with reasonably fast times despite the head wind in the straight.

But there is around 18 mm (3/4 inch) of rain forecast overnight and up to the race which will (if it arrives as forecast)  surely nudge the going towards Good to Soft.

This will put stamina at more of a premium.

MUNTAHAA has less to prove on that score having won over 1 mile five and a half last time ,running on at the finish,  in a G3 at Chester in a Listed Handicap over 1mile five and a half – just a furlong shorter then the Leger trip. That was on Good to Firm.

Gosden has won this 3 times in the period and it will be no surprise if he adds to his tally.

However, O'Brien has won this 5 times and, though his IDAHO is unproven beyond 12 furlongs, his class is comfortably above that of Gosden's runner – 7lbs accoording to the handicapper but just 4lbs according to RPR. He was a close third in the English Derby and even closer behind Harzan in the Irish version.

I think the first three home in this years Derby are of above average standard, and they pulled way clear fof the thrid. A Derby place is usually a very good qualification to win this.

This is a tricky choice though. A second fav (2 such winners) with the more proven stamina but less class will apppeal to the value  seekers. However, given the record of favs (11 wins) i am going to opt for class  and go for what i think will win, which is  IDAHO (proven on Soft by the way with his close second to Derby winner Harzand in a Group 3 at Leopardstown in April over 10F on Heavy).

I think that Derby form is being underestimated (as i think may be confirmed in later races  at Leopardstown) and, if the rain does materialise, we may even get odds against, so be sure to take BOG!

 

LEOPARDSTOWN 5.05 ENTERPRISE STAKES (G3)

LAST 15 RUNNINGS

Market

6 favs won and 5 second favs

11 were returned 13/2 or less

Ratings

All had an OR of 98+

Age

Immaterial in today's race with both 3 and 4yo's having very similar strike rates. However, 3yo's have won twice as often (10 times) because they have had twice the number of runners

Profile

ALL had run 2-6 times in the last year

14 had run no more than 5 times  that season

ALL finished in the first 4 last time

6 won and 4 were second

14 won over 1 mile plus

CONCLUSION

This has been the AP  and Dermot show with O'Brien winning 6 of the 15 renewals and Weld 5.

On trends, Weld will equalise. He runs the unbeaten (this season) ZHUKOVA who is the only one who ticks all the boxes and is the trends horse.

But i am loathe to oppose one of the Derby horses i talked about in the St Leger preview.

US Army Ranger was our Derby advice and ran an absolute screamer. I thought Ryan Moore gave him plenty to do (though AP says the horse was "babyish") and he was a good 15 lengths last turning for home. The worthy winner, Harzan, turned Tattenham corner around 5 lengths ahead but his jockey kicked early and US Army Ranger, meeting a little trouble in running and having to be pulled out to the widest of the field, made ground hand over fist, looking like he may win at the furlong pole. The winner kept on well though, and our lad, having given his all to get to the heels of the winner, had to settle for the SIlver medal.

Here is the vid showing the race from the home  turn (US Army Ranger is in the Royal Bluue silks of Magnier): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92STmfS5Mpo

He was given a break before blowing up having travelled well in a drop to this G3 class over 10 furlongs at the Curragh on Yielding. The trip wouldn't have helped as well as the  lay off. He is a mile and a halfer, for me.

He will strip fitter today and is the form horse. I get the feeling this isn't his target though and is a prep prace for the Arc (where he is a very tempting 25/1 in places at the moment). If i think he will win well tomorrow, it makes sense to back him now at 25/1 for the Arc, rather than tomorrow  at 11/10 and/or much reduced Arc odds.

Having said all that, this is a trends blog and the trends say ZHUKOVA, currently 11/4 second fav.

 

LEOPARDSTOWN 6.45 IIRISH CHAMPIONS STAKES

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Market

9 favs won and 6 second favs

No horse in the past 19 runnings was returned at an SP greater than 8/1

The first 4 in the betting have won every renewal

In short: this has been a race for market leaders

Handicap Rating (OR)

ALL rated 118 plus

Age

3yo's 9-63 (14%), 4yo's  4-41 (10%)

Profile

17 ran between 3 and 7 times in the last year

15 had 3-5 runs that season

ALL finished in the first 5 last time

18 finished in the first 4

17 posted a first 3 finish last time

Of which 9 won and 6 finished second

17 had won over 10.5F or beyond (suggesting stamina is at a premium in this)

CONCLUSION

Siding with 3yo's the trends narrow it down to the first three in the betting MINDING, HARZAND & ALMANZOR.

As you will know if you have read the above, i am a big fan of this year's Derby form. I think  this or the Oaks form will prevail  but the  former was won in a time of 2:40.09 compared to the Oaks time of 2:42.66

The 15/19 victories for the first two in the betting narrow it down to MINDING and HARZAND on trends. The former's trainer has won this 7 times, so a win for the filly would be no surprise at all, but the clock and my esteem for the Derby form lead me to make HARZAND the selection at 3/1 generally the selection.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TV Trends, Friday Round Robin

DON 2.30 THE FLYING CHILDERS

LAST 19 RENEWALS

Market

Fav won 9 but second fav just twice

33/1 and 18/1 winnnners have surprised but all the rest were returned 11/1 or less

First 5 in betting won 17

Ratings (OR)

8 of the last 9 rated 100+

Profile

16 had run 2-6 times

17 posted a first 7 finish last time

9 of which won

CONCLUSION

No perfect fit here as the two last time out  winners in the market range – Afandem and The Last Lion – have had too many runs (7 and 8 respectively)

The only other on the trends shortlist finished fifth last time (ok but not ideal) and has no OR (last 2 runs in France) but, as current 3/1 fav in a race that the fav has won virtually half the time, the selection is TIS MARVELLOUS

 

DON 3.05 MALLARD STAKES

LAST 19 RUNINGS

Market

Fav won 6 and second favs 3 – provided nearly half the winners

No big shocks with just the 20/1 winner. 16 were returned 10/1 or less

17 came from the first 7 in the betting

Weight

18 carried 9-8 or less

Official Rating (OR)

18 rated 102 or less

Age

3yo's have dominated this both in numbers and strike rate wise with 10 wins  from 53 runners (19%)

Profile

18 ran 4-11 times in the preceding year

All had run between 1  and 8 times that season

15 finished in the first 5 last time

16 won over at least one mile three and a half furlongs

17 had already RAN over 1m6F

16 ran 8-30 days ago

NONE had a lay off longer than 60 days

CONCLUSION

Michael Bell, who has won this race twice,runs an interesting one, Fabricate,  that is very nearly a trends selection. It falls down on not having won over a mile and a half plus and not having run over 1M6F+.

The selection has won at todays trip and, a  big bonus, is a 3yo. WALL OF FIRE is the clear trends pick.

 

 

DON 3.40 DONCASTER CUP

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Market

Favs won 6,second favs 4 and third favs won 5 = 15 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

A  further 3 winners were fourth in the betting making that 18/19 for the first 4

RATINGS

15 of the 16 that had a rating had a rating of 99 or more

Age

7 and 3yo's have the best record with 5-20 (25%) and 2-9 (22%) respectively

4 and 6yo's are next best with 5-43 (12%) and 3-27 (11%)

5 yo's are next best with 3-35 (9%) and one 8yo has won from 13 to try (8%)

No horse older than 8 has won in this period

Profile

ALL had run  2-10 times in the past year

18 had run 2-6 times that season

16 posted a first 4 finish in their last run

9 won last time out

ALL had won over 1M6F or more

16 had won over 2 miles plus

18 had ran over 2 miles or further

ALL last ran 16-90 days ago

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow it down to just one who, though not the perfect age at 6, ticks all the boxes. QUEST FOR MORE is the definite trends horse.

Watch the market for Prescott's horse though. He has won this twice in the period and once was with the lowest rated winner, off an OR of just 85,over the last 19 runnings.

He runs the only 3yo, ST MICHEL, who may be worth an each way tickle as a seperate bet

Big G1 Sprint Haydock (32 Red Sprint) trends

SAT 3/9/16

HAYDOCK 4.30

32 RED SPRINT CUP STAKES (G1)

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Market

Favs won 5 and second favs twice

The first 7 in the betting won 18 times – not a race for big shocks

Other than a 25/1 shot winning, the rest were returned 14/1 or less

Ratings

Of the 16 to have an official rating, all were rated 104 plus and 15  had on OR of 109 or more.

Age

3yo's and 5yo's have the best record with near idendtical strike rates, 7-71 (10%) for the former and 5-49 (10%) for the latter.

Their record is nearly twice as good as 4yo's who are 5-82 (6%)

No horse older than 7 has won this over the period.

Profile

18 had run between twice and 11 times in the last year

18 had run 2-7 times that season

ALL posted a top 6 finish last time out

15 finished in the first 4 last time

12 of which were in the first two (six each for the  winner and second)

16 won at 6 furlongs or further

Interestingly, 12 hadn't won at LESS than 6F suggesting stamina as well as speed is necessary in this

18  had run at 6F

15 were distance  winners

ALL ran 8-90 days ago

Trainers

Henry Candy has won this twice in the last 6 years and saddles the fav, LIMATO, who has everything going for him trends wise barring age (4yo is ok but not ideal).

Ed Vaughan has had 7 runners in the last 14 days and 3 have won. Add to that his record at Haydock (4-9) and with his older horses here (4-6) and you see what i mean.

His MEHHRONISSA is priced around 40/1 at the moment and this 4yo has plenty going for her. But her rating of 105 would make her the second lowest rated and biggest priced winner in 20 years. Also, though not a negative, the record of 4yo's is not ideal. Not a trends horse but tempting with those stats!

Jockeys

Frankie Dettori is 8/18 riding for Charles Hills over the past two years and he rides MAGICAL MEMORY who has a seventh place finish last time to overcome, something no other winner has done over the last 19 years. Also, not ideal, a 4yo.

CONCLUSION

There is around 8mm of rain forecast before 4.30 tomorrow and the ground rode Good to Firm today. So the going should be no worse than Good tomorrow.

LIMATO is a worthy fav after chasing home Mecca's Angel last time over an inadequate 5 furlongs in the Nunthorpe. Beaten in a Group 3 on his only visit to this track, the ratings suggest he is not seen to best effect on a  flat track.

His G1 July Cup form over the trip at Newmarket is top class, and Irish raider DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT (who should be noted in the market!) franked that form by running second in a top class G1 over 6.5F next time at Deauville. He is only 1-4 in Group ones though.

However, on a line through the only 5yo in this, Suedois, there is nothing between these two and the Irish horse should not  be 8 times the price! Also the latter has the trends merit of being a 3yo.

QUIET REFLECTION has 2L and a hd to find with LIMATO on July Cup form, though the slightly slower ground should help.

TIN MAN is 0-2 in G1's.

Which leaves us with the filly DANCING STAR who did us all a favour when winning the £155K Stewards Cup  last time out, the  first filly to  do this since the great Lochsong back in 1994. This one is owned by Jeff Smith, owner of Lochsong, and is held in the highest regard.

She ticks all the trends boxes and is very much on the upgrade. At 10/1 with Paddy Power  as i type, DANCING STAR is the trends selection.

With those trainer stats of Ed Vaughan's though, i can't resist an each way tickle on MEHRONISSA at 40/1 generally. Though not a trends horse, it is a trainer stats punt.

 

 

Ebor trends

Tough as it was analysing the Nunthorpe, (i started writing this before that race) this was a  walk in the park to do the trends.

Basically the weights and handicap ratings narrow it down to the bottom 6 in the weights.

SATURDAY 20/8/16

YORK  4.00

THE TOTE EBOR STAKES

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Betting

Not exactly a bookie's benefit but not far off

2 favs have  won and 3 second favs

However there has been a  winner at 100/1, two at 33/1 and four at 25/1!

The only sense in which the market is a guide is that 15 were returned at 12/1 SP or bigger

Weight

(Thank  god for these stats!)

No horse has won with more than 9-4 on its back

Official Handicap Rating (OR)

17 were rated 102 or less

Age

Remarkably there are no 3yo's running in this tomorrow, which is a shame as they have a good record.

Of the other ages, 5yo's have got easily the best record with 10 wins from 104 runs (10%)

No horse older than 7 has won in this period

All the other ages have wins to runs ratios of around 4%

Profile

17 had 4-12 runs in the last year

16 had 2-5 runs that season

16 posted a first 7 finish last time

12 finished in the first 3 LTO

16 had won over 12F +

16 had ran at 14F plus

Trainers

Ian Jardine has his horses in fine fettle with 7 winners from his 21 runners in the past fortnight. He runs Shrewd who has everything in his favour except not being the ideal age. Shortlisted.

Tony Martin has a 1/1 record with his his older horses here and sends Heartbreak City over from Ireland. This one lacks a single figure finish last time which 18 previous winners had posted.

Alan King is 1/2 at this course with his older horses and he saddles Top Tug who has a perfect profile except he lack a run over 1m 6f.

CONCLUSION

The only 5yo in the weight and ratings range is TOP TUG who would have a perfect profile if he had run over tomorrow's trip.

As insurance therefore, i am going to ignore the age stat for the bang in  form Jardine yard's SHREWD as a saver, who IS proven at the trip.

The former is currently available at 20/1 with Ladbrokes or Paddy Power and the latter is 16/1 at Bet365.

 

Nunthorpe trends

This does not look a good trends race but, of  course, you don't find that out until you have looked into it!
 
There are a couple of negative trends that may help you or may leave me with egg on my face.
 
1) To my surprise, the fav, Limato has never run, let alone won, over 5 furlongs. 15 of the previous 19 runnings were won by distance winners.
 
2) Mecca's Angel attempts to be only the second horse in the last 19 runnings to win this back to back  – in fact only one has won this more than once over the period.
 
I managed to narrow it down to 5 (!) using the following filters. Last 19 runnings (dead heat in 1997, so 20 winners):
 
Fav won 7
 
First 8 in betting won 18
 
18 were returned 16/1 or less
 
19 had run 10 or less times in the past year
 
18 had run 1-6 times that season
 
17 posted a first 6 last run last time
 
7 won last time
 
10 had won over further than 5F
 
17 had RAN over 6F+
 
15 were distance winners
 
7 yo' have the best record with 3-25 (12%)
 
2, 3 & 4yo's are next  best with 8% winners to runners
 
5, 6 & horses aged 8yo plus have only a 4% wins to runs
 
 
This narrows it down to, in card order, Brando, Goldream, Profitable, Easton Angel and Yalta.
 
As so often with these top sprints, it seems you need some stamina as well as speed! 17  winners had run at 6F or further and 10 (so half the winners) had won over further.
 
On that (somewhat tenous) basis i  would exclude Profitable  and Easton Angel.
 
Of the 3 left, Goldream is the ideal age as a 7yo.
 
However, if i had  to choose one, it would be Mark Johnston's 2yo, YALTA who won twice over 6 furlongs before improving a stone on Racing Post Ratings to win the 5 furlong Group 3 Molecombe Stakes at Goodwood "impressively" by 3 lengths.
 
This one looks an improver and will be my small bet in what looks to be a tricky race trends-wise and otherwise.
 
 
​​​​​​Good luck,

John

 
 
 

 

 

Great St Wilfred race trends & trainer stats

SAT 3/8/16

RIPON 3.55

THE GREAT ST WILFRED HANDICAP

LAST 19  RUNNINGS

Betting

5 favs have won this and 4 of those were priced 4/1 or less (Orion's Bow is 9/2 from 5's)

There have been 8 favs priced 4/1 or less and 3 of those won!

Second favs haven't won once in all these years

This isn't a race for big shocks with 20/1 being the biggest priced winner, one 18/1 shot winning  and three 16/1's.

The first 10 in the betting won 17

Weight

ALL carried 9-8 or less, eighteen 9-7 or less and sixteen 9-4 or less

Official Handicap Rating (OR)

ALL  had an OR of 100 or below

Age

4 yo's have won 8 times  from 100 runners. At 8% strike rate, that is twice as good as the other ages involved today.

No horse over aged over 7 has won

Draw

A distinct advantage for the lower half of the draw with those drawn 12 or less scoring 12 times from 238 runs (5%), while those drawn 13 plus managed just 2 wins from 61 runs (2%)

Profile

16 had between 3-9 runs over the last year

16 had between 3-9 runs that season

16 finished in the first 7 last time of which 13 were in the first 4. 6 won

17 had won over 6F+

15 were distance winners

17 ran within the past 30 days

Trainers

David O'Meara and Richard Fahey have won the last 5 runnings of this with 3 and 2 winners respectively

O'Meara runs two, Moonraker and Intisaab. The former has nothing going for it trends-wise but Intisaab is interesting. However, a berth in stall 17 and (less important) age (5yo) are off putting trends-wise

Fahey runs 3. Alben Star is  an 8yo with the stats all against him and Tatislu is too far out in the betting and lacks a first 7 finish last time. Nuno Trystan though, has a near perfect trends profile and is shortlisted

David Nicholls  has saddled two winners of this race and he runs two. Favourite Orion's Brow who must go close and it should be noted if he looks likely to go off 4/1 or shorter (as illustrated above). Three niggles though; statistically he is a little high in the weights, he runs off an OR 6lbs higher than any of the past 9 winners and 5yo is not the ideal age. The same remarks also apply to Nicholls' other runner, Kimberella

Tom Dascombe is 3/9 here with his older runners and he saddles Snap Shots, another with a near perfect profile and another for the shortlist.

CONCLUSION

Using all the trends filters above there are no perfect matches but the two who have near perfect profiles are SNAP SHOTS (whose only trends 'sin' is to have ran 10 times in the past year) and NUNO TRYSTAN, a perfect fit but has had 11 runs over the last year.

They are my two against the field in what is always a competitive race. They are available at best prices of 16/1 and 10/1 respectively.

 

 

 

 

 

ROSE OF LANCASTER STAKES TRENDS

SAT 6/8/16

HAY 3.45

LAST 18 RUNNINGS

Market

Good race for favs with nearly half (8) winning

Not so good for second favs with just the one winning. The market tends to get it right between the first two in the betting

There have been winners at 25/1& 14/1 but the other 16 were returned 15/2 or less

Official Rating (OR)

All had a rating of 105 plus

Age

3yo have by far the best record with 10 winners from 37 runners (27%)

4yo's are 5-44 (11%)

5 yo's 3-22 (14%)

Profile

15 had run between 3-7 times in the previous year

17 had run between  2 to 5 runs that season

14 had won over 9 furlongor further

ALL had ran over 10F +

17 were distance winners

18 last ran between 8 and 90 days ago

17 posted a first 7 finish last time

6 won

Trainers

Stoute has won this 3 times and the yard is bang in form with 14 winners from 42 runners in the last 14 days. His runner, Arab Spring, has a couple of trends against him though.  No 6yo or older horse has won this from 15 to try and none of the ten having last ran 90 days or more ago succeeded either. Not big samples so i wouldn't put you off, but the trends are against this one, for me.

Gosden is 23-74 at Haydock and he has Foundation. The lack of a distance win puts me off, seeing as 17 of the last 19 winners had won at the trip. Also only two winners hadn't posted a first 7 placing last time. Ideal age but the negatives put me off.

CONCLUSION

Fire Fighting is interesting but, with 9 runs this season is over raced.

This leaves SCOTTISH who has a near perfect trends profile. Had he been a 3yo, the profile would have been flawless.

 

King George trends

SATURDAY 23/7/16

ASCOT 4.30

THE KING GEORGE VI AND QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Betting

Good race for favs, with 8 winning

Second fav won 4 so the first two in the betting have won around two thirds of the last 19 runnings

17 were from the first 4 in the betting  

NO third fav won

A 16/1 shot won as well as a 9/1, but all the rest were returned 13/2 or less.

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 11 winners who had a rating (including the last 7 winners) had an OR of 115 plus

9 of those 11 had a rating of 118+

Age

3yo's have won 4 times from 29 runners (14%)

4yo's 12-79 (15%)

5yo's 2-34 (6%)

So the percentage call is a 3 or 4yo

Profile

ALL had ran no more than 6 times in the preceding year

ALL ran 4 times or less that season

13/14 who had won in the UK won over 10.5F plus

15/17 that ran in the UK had raced over 12F plus

17 posted a first 3 finish last time

11 won last time

13 were distance winners

Trainers

AP O'Brien and Sir Michael Stoute have won this 3 times each. The former runs Highland Reel who, with 8 runs in the last year, is over the 6 runs max.

Stoute has the current fav, Dartmouth, who has a perfect trends profile.

John Gosden has won 2 of the last 5 runnings and he has two, last time out 6th, the 5yo Western Hymn (also has more than 4 runs this season) , and the 3yo, Wings of Desire, who, with an OR of 113, would be the lowest rated winner of this over the last 20 years.

CONCLUSION

The times for the first four races indicate fast going and the 6mm of rain which was forecast  doesn't seem to have made much difference with the last winner winning in near enough standard time. No rain forecast tonight or tomorrow morning either.

DARTMOUTH is the perfact trends pick. He outbattled Highland Reel in the Hardwicke Stakes over C/D last time on ground probably a little on the slow side for him; I see no reason why the latter should reverse that form especially with faster ground likely tomorrow. 

A bigger danger may be the French horse, Erupt who was only beaten a few lengths in creme de la creme races such as last seasons Arc and the Japan Cup. Has not seemed quite the same horse this season but was only beaten a length and a quarter in a G1 at Saint Cloud last time and that alone shows he is capable of winning what looks like, since the withdrawal of Postponed, a sub standard King George. Erupt, currently 9/2 fourth fav generally (don't forget the record of third favs!) could be the one for each way backers.

However, DARTMOUTH looks like a typical Stoute late developer on the upgrade. Yet to win a Group 1, true, but i think the French horse may be all that stands between him  and his first group one victory tomorrow.

 

 

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