SAT 22/10/16




Over the period there have been winners at 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1, so shocks not unheard of

12 favs have won though and 7 of the last 10 have done so

16 were returned 14/1 or less

Official Rating

All  3 with a rating had an OR of 96+


17 had between 1 and 4 runs prior to to this race

17 posted a first 3 finsh last time out

12 won LTO

No maiden won

16 won over 7F +

18 had ran over 7 furlongs or further

Trainers and Jockeys

AP O'Brien has won this 7 times; Finn McCool, at 20/1,  looks like he could be in as the  pacemaker and, at those odds, would be the joint third longest priced winner. All of the past 7 O'Brien winners had SP's of 10/1 or less. Other than that, has a fine trends profile.

Of his two other runners, Anvil is a maiden but Yucatan is the fav and, but for the lack of a last time win, would have a perfect trends profile.

David Elsworth has his horses in fine form and he saddles Sir Dancelot whose only trends negative is he has had 5 runs rather than the usual 2-4.

William Haggas is 8/26 with his 2yo's here over the last 5 seasons and his Rivet is clear on the official ratings. His lack of a first three run last time makes him unappealing as a trends horse.  Hope for his followers though is that the jockey, Andrea Atzeni, has rode the last three winners of this race!

Ryan Moore is 67/215 for O'Brien.


Looking at those 14/1 and shorter, Contrapopposto and Raheen House are rated less than 96.

Rivet finished fifth last time.

Sir Dancelot  has had too much racing (5 runs) as has Salouen.

The Anvil is a maiden.

This leaves the fav in a race where more than two thirds of favs have won both over the last 19 years and the last 10 – YUCATAN. Even he could have had  a better profile if he had won his last race but he fulfils the first three last time criteria.

At Evens, currently, you won't get rich backing him so, given the yard's forecast and tri-cast exploits, i wouldn't be at all surprised if his 20/1 shot FINN MCCOOL ran a  big race and is the each way alternative  for those averse to short prices. His only trends downside is his price, but, big prices are not unheard of in this.







Main Trends

18 were returned 9/1 or less, which leaves just four runners today

12 came from the first two in the betting

16 has 2-8 runs in the last year

15 ran 2-6 times that season (we lose once raced this season, and 2014 winner, Forgotten Rules

17 had already ran over 2 miles, which disqualifies Simple Verse on trends

This leaves us with two possibles.

On trends alone Order of St George is best. Quest for More, with 8 runs in the last year is cutting it fine and is well held on a line through Sheikzayed Road who was well beaten by the fromer nearly 6L in the G1 Gold Cup by the former,  but beat the latter a nose in the G2 Doncaster Cup.

Trainers & Jockeys

Dermot Weld always has to be watched at Ascot as he has a 7-21 strike rate  here and is 5-12 with his older horses. As mentioned, his Forgotten Rules is a run short of being a typical winner of this, having won it in 2014. Only the great Persian Punch has won this more than once in the period looked at.

Ryan Moore has a fantastic 31% strike rate, from a huge sample, riding for  AP O'Brien and this tends to add confidence to the trends selection.

For those needing a miracle, Adam Kirby, who is 3-10 for Sylvester Kirk, rides 100/1 shot  Forgotten Rules.


It will be a most uncoventional route, via a 3L third in the Arc just 13 days ago, but ORDER OF ST GEORGE ticks all the boxes. With the speed to run such a screamer in the Arc and to win the Irish St Leger by  11L, yet the stamina to win the two and a half miles G1 Ascot Gold Cup, this looks an extraordinary horse. The only doubt could be the hard race at Chantilly and the return after just 13 days, though his record running between 8-15 days is 2-4.

At best priced 5/6,  no-one will get rich backing him. He is, however by some way the likeliest winner.

As an each way punt i may, thanks to the amazing record of Dermot Weld here,overlook the minimum 2 seasonal runs rule and back former winner FORGOTTEN RULES




Main Trends

16 were returned 11/1 or less

16 were from the first 5 in the betting

ALL had run at leat 3 times thaat season – Shalaa has run just once

18 posted a first 5 finish last time which loses Twilight Son

18 were distance winners, which gets rid of Meca's Angel and Librisi Breeze

This leaves us with a trends shortlist of 2: The Tin Man and Quiet Reflection

Trainers & Jockeys

Gosden's is the in form yard with 15 winners from 46 runners in the past 2 weeks. He runs Shalaa whose trends flaw was mentioned above.

Pat Smullen is 1-2 for Mick Channon and he rides 50/1 shot, Mobsta.

Ryan Moore is 1-3 for Henry Candy and he rides Twilight Son whose zero last time out rules him out as a trends pick


The trends point to the first two home in the £160K G1 6F Sprint at Haydock 6 weeks ago. I can see no reason why the form should be reversed and QUIET REFLECTION  (3/1 generally) is the  selection.




Main Trends

Returned 14/1 or less

Won over 10F which leaves Queens Trust out of it having won over no more than 7F

Ran over 12F  which, though having flopped over that trip twice (once in this race last season), would seem to go against Speedy Boarding.

This leaves a shortlist of three: Journey, Zhukova and Seventh Heaven.

Trainers & Jockeys

The in form Gosden yard run two and Journey is on the shortlist

Suroor is 8/28 the last 14 days but runs a 33/1 outsider in Promising Run

Dermot Weld (whose record at Ascot was discussed above) runs Zhukova, also shortlisted

Ryan Moore's record for AP O'Brien bodes well for the other shortlisted horse, Seventh Heaven

Jim Crowley is 2/5 for Suroor and Promising Run is beginning to look like the one that could provide the shock if there is to be one

Aidan O'Brien has never won this race


Without doubt Seventh Heaven is the form horse. The conqueror of Arc winner, Found, in the Yorkshire Oaks, though receiving 10lbs weight for age, may well have been a little flattered though as Found is an Autumn horse who came good when unlucky in the Arc last year before winning the Breeders Cup. According to RPR, Found improved 7lbs from that race to the Arc which would have probably been enough to turn the form round in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Add to that the trainers  record in this race and i am prepared to take her on at 7/4.

Gosden's Journey could be an improver but will need to be, having been beaten in this last year's lower class renewal.

I still maintain the Epsom Derby form of the first 3 was top class form and, in beating US Army Ranger last time, ZHUKOVA stamped herself a top class horse and, at 7/2 looks over priced.




Main Trends

This is the best race for favs on the card with 8 winning

Interestingly, NO second favs won but three third favs obliged

17 were returned 9/1 or less

Now we come  to what i think is the key stat, the stand out stat of all the research i have done on  all the races so far:

17 had no more than 5 runs in the last year

18 had no more than 5 runs that season

This trend is interesting as it suggests this is not a race for horses who have had busy campaigns in hard races. This knocks all bar Lightning Spear, from the 9/1 or less price band, out of it.

Trainers & Jockeys

Aiden O'Brien has won this 3 times and his fav, Minding, having done the 1000 Guineas and Oaks double, is the obvious form horse. But, too many hard races this season?

Shane Foley is 5/17 for Adrian Paul Keatley whose Jet Setting beat Minding in the Irish 1000 Guineas. The same question applies to her.

Breton Rock is not a miler but Andrea Atzeni is 5/18  riding for trainer David Simcock. I can't help wondering if this 66/1 shot is a pacemaker for his other runner, Lightning Spear.


LIGHTNING SPEAR is the trends pick by default but he is no mug. Won going away last time in the G2 Celebration Mile at Glorious Goodwood last time and, reading the following, that may have been only a prep for this:

"the last two races have been so frustrating to watch as Lightning Spear hasn´t been able to produce and show for one reason or another. You feel sorry for the horse because he´s got so much talent and I think he´ll show that at the end of this year and next. He´s got a turn of foot and can pick up – David Simcock, trainer. " Racing Post

Best priced 12/1 but likely to go off around 8 or 9's, LIGHTNING SPEAR is my trends  surprise horse, so far.




Main Trends

17 were returned 12/1 or less

18 had 6 runs or less over the last year (which puts paid to Found's chances, trends-wise)

ALL ran 6 times or less that season (again bad news for Found)

15 finished in the first 3 last time

5yo's have a 14% strike rate compared to 7% (6 winners) for 3yo's & 9% (8 winners) for 4yo's

10 won LTO

Trainers & Jockeys

We have the Weld stats at the track, Gosden's and Suroor's yards good recent  form and Ryan Moore's record for O'Brien.

The only new stat for trainers is the record of JC Rouget at the course, 2-7, with 2-6 being 3yo's

Christophe Soumillon is 2-4 for Rouget here and he rides the horse with the perfect trends profile – ALANZOR

Sivlestre de Sousa is 2/3 for Suroor and he rides Racing History, who, as a seasonal  debutant, would be an unusual  winner.

AP O'Brien has never  won this race.


Applying the above, we have a trends shortlist of three:

Fascinating Rock, as a 5yo, appeals and he won this last year. Alborada and Twice Over won it two years running. A win, rather than a second, last time would  have been ideal.

French Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner, ALMANZOR, has a flawless trends profile and can't really be opposed.

I backed US Army Ranger ante post for the Arc. I thought he was ridden to get the trip in the Epsom Derby when making up amazing ground from Tattenham Corner and looking like he was going to run Harzand down, only to fade, having done all his  work getting there.

Harzand let the form down since but was struck into  in the Irish Champion and, just two weeks later, was still feeling that in the Arc, for my money.

At 25/1 last night (now gone) US ARMY RANGER has a near perfect trends profile and, should there be a surprise,  could be the one to provide it. My each way bet in this at 16/1 generally.









SAT 8/10/16

NKT 4.10


LAST 19 runnings


A poor guide with winners at 66/1 twice, 50/1 twice and 25/1 – 4 of those winners were in the past 5 years!

However 2 favs, 2 second favs and 2 third favs won, giving 6 winners from the first 3 in the betting

14 came from the first 9 in the betting


ALL carried 9-8 or less and 17 carried 9-6 or lower

Official Rating (OR)

17 were rated 98 or less, which very nearly ties in perfectly with the 9-6 or less trend


The older they get the better their wins to runs strike rate, with two exceptions – the dire record of 5yo's who have won this just once from 140 runners and the decent record of 3 yo's, who are 2-38 (5%)

Of the rest, in order of merit (strike rate wise), 9yo's are 1-15 (7%), 8yo's 2-36 (6%), 7yo's 3-77 (6%), & 4yo's 4-198 (2%)


14 ran between 4-9 times in the past year

17 ran 2-7 times that season

16 ran 1-7 times that season

17 finished in the first 7 last time

17 had won over 2m plus (flat or hurdles)

18 RAN over 2m1f (flat or hurdles)

17 ran between 16 and 120 days ago

2 winning 3yo's rated 94 & 95


All the above filters lead us to three – and they are all 4yo's, which, while they have  won 4, have  the second  worse strike rate, is not ideal. So none of these are perfect fits, just bear in mind we have  to choose how exactly to narrow down a 35 runner  field and i am choosing to downplay the age stats.

The three are third fourth and fifth favs and i would back  all three to win based on the none too good record of the  first two in the beting and the fact that fav St Michel (a 3yo in a race good for them) has had more than 7 runs this season annd has to run off a mark 2 lbs higher than the two other 3yo  winners. Starchitect is  the opposite with just the one  run this season.

So, the selections:

Prescott's supposed second string SEA OF HEAVEN 10/1 @ boylesport

Current third fav, and ratings pick, SWEET SELECTION 10/1 @ boylesport

THE CASHEL MAN @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1 Betvictor

ALL 3 have perfect trends profiles other than being 4 yo's.






FRI  7/10/16

NKT 3.10




Good guide with 8 favs and 4 second favs winning

Other than a 28/1 winner, all the others were returned 10/1 or less

18 came from the first 4 in the betting

Official Rating (OR)

Of the 8 winners of this with an OR, ALL were rated 90+, as are the  only two with an OR tomorrow.


17 had run between 2-4 times

18 finished in the first 3 last time – 14 won

17 won over 7F plus

ALL ran over 7F+

ALL ran within the last 60 days


AP O'Brien has won this 4 times and he saddles two.

Hydrangea has had one too many runs to be ideal  trends material,  and is  just held by stablemate, Rohdendrum anyway. The latter would have been a strong trends pick with a win last time, but the third place LTO puts me off because of the preponderance of last time winners.

Hugo Palmer has his horses in fine form with 9 winners from 29 runners over the last two weeks. His horse, Fleabiscuit, won  last time but has had just the one  run (no other winner in the period had less than 2) and is 20/1 at the moment, well outside the 10/1 second longest priced winner.


Looking at the first four in the betting, we can exclude the O'Brien pair (reluctantly, as he is a serial trends buster!).

The problem is that the fourth in the betting is a close call. As i write, Hydarangea has  drifted out to 11/2 and the ideal trends horse (three times runners have  won 9 renewals), RICH LEGACY is a rock solid 6/1.

Current fav, Sobetsu  won a  maiden by 10 lengths over over C/D last time, improving vastly on his dubut run behind race experienced second fav, Spatial, over 7F, again in a maiden.

But RICH LEGACY is the (potential) trends horse with the form in the book, having won the G2 May Hill Stakes over a mile and, as i say, with three runs and a win last time, has a perfect profile IF she is sent off from the first four in the betting. I am gambling she will either be backed into the first four in the betting and/or Hydrangea will drift . She is available at 6/1 generally.





SAT 1/10/16





Mixed bag. There have been big priced winners at 40/1 & 28/1, a 20/1 winner and two 16/1's.

On the other hand, 7 favs won as did  4 second favs

16 came from the first 7 in the betting

15 came from  the first 5

Official Rating (OR)

15 had an OR (all todays runners are rated) of which 13 were rated 89 plus


ALL ran 1-9 times

16 finished in the first 4 last time

7 won last time

Only 2 maidens have won this over the period

Only 10 had already won over 6F plus

But 18 had RAN over  6F+


The ratings trend alone narrows it down to 5 and, when we introduce the top 4 finish last time out, we are left with two.

OREWA has the perfect profile and won a 108K Curragh sales race 2 lengths last time. Whether he will be as at home on this faster ground (yielding at the Curragh  last time) remains to be seen but he has ran well and achieved a good RPR on Good)

Hugo Palmer's yard is in fine form,  with 9 winners from his 31 runners over the past fortnight and 2 of his 3 two year old runners here have won. He runs the worthy 5/1 fav, MAZYOUN who was second in an even more valuable 147K sales race at Doncaster last time and  will like this ground. The trends negative for this one though is his lack of a win (only 2 such winners).

In summary, i have backed OREWA, who is the definite best on trends, at 14/1 with Hills (Ladbrokes go the same), each way. My only worry is the ground may be too fast.

I have backed MAZYOUN as a saver at 5/1 with 365 (generally available) who will like the ground.


Cambridgeshire trends

SATURDAY 24/9/16





Favs won twice and second favs just once.

The first 3 in the betting won 9

There have been a number of shocks with winners at 100/1, 40/1, 33/1 & 25/1

On the other hand, the first 9 in th betting won 15 renewals

All in all, the market is not the best of guides for this.


17 carried 9-3 or less

16 carried 8-4 Plus

Official Rating (OR)

Corresponds with the weights trends in that 18 had an OR of 103 or less


No 7yo or older won

 6yo's have the best wins to runs strike rate with 4-70 (6%) with 3yo's next best on 5-137 (4%)

5yo's have the worst record with 3-122 (2%) and 4 yo's are 7-231 (3%)


ALL had run 1-11 times over the previous year

ALL had run 8 or less times that season

17 had finished in the first 5 in their last run

18 had won over a mile or more


John Gosden has won this twice, but his top weight, GM Hopkins, would be winning this off 112, a mark 8lbs higher than any other over the past 19 runnings

David Elsworth has had two winners of this as well and similar remarks apply as to the above. Both are 5yo's too, which, while such winners are not unheard of, statistically have has only a third of the chance of 6yos

Marcus Tregoning has also won this twice  and with the same horse, the 7yo Bronze Angel, who would be the oldest winner in our period

The Noseda yard is in form with 2 winners from 5 runners in the last two weeks. He saddles the 4yo Brave Zolo, who, though his age isn't ideal, is shortlisted

Finally Ed Vaughan has his string in fine fettle and he runs the 5 yo Interconnection. Other than the age, a decent trends profile at a decent price,  but the record of 5yo's puts me off.


With 35 runners, this is one of the toughest races to call of the year. Looking at the betting pattern, it has a similar shape to the Grand National, with the fav 8/1 at present and the second fav 12/1.

Therefore any selections are sporting ones and to small stakes only. Any of the below could win.

First the trends shortlist, in card order:

11) Brave Zolo: 12/1 co second fav . If 3 or 6yo i would fancy, but second favs record not inspiring

12) Treasury Notes: a 20/1 4 yo with the same reservation viz age

22) Eric The Red ditto  for this 22/1 4yo

26) Dolphin Vista is a 3yo with a lively outsiders chance at 40/1

However, my short shortlist is:

The 3yo 12/1 co second fav, BANKSEA has strong claims but with reservations about second fav status

As has fellow 3yo, 16/1 co fifth fav , VERY TALENTED

But; I have come down on the side of the 6yo, the 18/1 ninth fav, KNIGHT OWL who is the only one of the shortlist who has everything going for him including age.

He is my sole each way bet at 20/1 with Bet365 or Corals.





SAT 17/9/16




Favs and second favs have not fared well with just one apiece winning

However, the betting is still a decent guide as 17 winners were from the first 10 in the betting

Two 33/1 shots have won but all the rest were returned 20/1 or less


ALL carried 9-9 or less, 18 humped 9-6- and 17 hauled 9-4 or below

Official Hanidcap Rating (OR)

ALL rated 109 or less and 18 with an OR of 105-


4yo's have the best record with 8 wins from 141 runs (6%), 6yo's are next best with 4-88 (5%) and 5yo' are 5-127 (4%). Not a lot in it on the face of it, but, statistically, 4yo's have a 50% better  chance of winning than 5yo's.


18 ran 4-13 times over the previous year

18 ran 4-10 times that  season

12 posted a first 4  finish last time

18 won over 6 furlongs plus

ALL RAN over 6F plus

Only 12 were distance  winners

Interestingly, and  perhaps related, 10 had won over further. As so often in these big sprint handicaps,  they have to see out the trip in a big field, fast run, race.

ALL last ran 60 days ago or less


The trends narrow it  down to 4, in card order:


This 6yo is a fascinating Irish runner for Adrian Paul Keating. He was a Group 1 winner almost exactly two years ago at Haydock over this trip and in a big (17 runner) field.

This is only his fifth run for Keatley and, if he runs anywhere near his form of two years ago, he will romp home off a mark of 102. But his record since puts me off and that "if" is enough to put me off (i will probably kick myselfaround 3.50!).

The niggle, trends-wise, is he his clear second fav and they have only taken this once in the last 19 runnings.

He has no win beyond 6 furlongs, but you don't win Group 1 races at the wrong trip! If you fancy him, i wouldn't put you off  as he has a near perfect trends profile.


5-14 wins for this lightly raced 4yo. True the most recent form has been over 5 furlongs but two previous wins at this trip indicate a good chance he will run to the line. As a 4yo, the best on trends.

POYLE VINNIE is 4-25 on turf and, though he creeps into the outsider end of the betting at 20/1, he has a lot to prove for me. He is 0-7 (once placed) in big  fields of 16 plus, 0-7 on flat tracks (5 placed though) and his strike rate when reappearing quickly is 4-7 when running 14 days or less after his last run, but 2-23 when running 15 days or more later. Not for me.


Another intriguing one, not least because trained by sprint king Robert Cowell. This one has never won over 6 furlongs but,  then again 7 of the past 19 weren't distance winners either. If the trip doesn't suit it won't be stamina that's lacking as this 5yo has won over  7 furlongs and a  mile!

A fast run 6 furlongs could be right up his street and, other than being a 5yo, he has a perfect trends profile. Trip wise, who am i to argue with Robert Cowell?

Going off today's times the going is hovering between Good and Good to Soft. A dry night is forecast, so probably will ride on the slower side of Good tomorrow. This shoudn't inconvenience either of my two selections.

They reckon  the place to be drawn tomorrow but lets's hope they are wrong as i go for FINAL VENTURE (drawn 20) and SIR ROBERT CHEVAL (2).

The former is best odds 25/1 with Paddy Power and the latter is best priced 28/1 with BetVictor.











11 favs won but only 2 second favs

There has been a winner at 25/1  but the other 18 were returned 14/1 or less

18 came from the first 6 in the betting

Ratings (OR)

ALL 15 winners that were rated had an OR of 108 or more

All the last 10 had an OR


ALL had run 3-7 times in the last year

17 had 3-5 runs that season

ALL posted a first 4 finish last time

9 won their last race

Proven stamina has not been as important as you would think:

ALL had won over 1 mile plus

And 15 at 10F +

BUT ALL had RAN over 12F or further


If we look at the four horses currently priced 12/1 or less Houses of Parliament has had too many races this season as has Sword Fiighter  who also finished out of the top 4 last time.

Boringly, this leaves us with the first two in the betting, 8/11 fav Idaho and 4/1 2F Muntahaa.

It rode Good to Firm today with reasonably fast times despite the head wind in the straight.

But there is around 18 mm (3/4 inch) of rain forecast overnight and up to the race which will (if it arrives as forecast)  surely nudge the going towards Good to Soft.

This will put stamina at more of a premium.

MUNTAHAA has less to prove on that score having won over 1 mile five and a half last time ,running on at the finish,  in a G3 at Chester in a Listed Handicap over 1mile five and a half – just a furlong shorter then the Leger trip. That was on Good to Firm.

Gosden has won this 3 times in the period and it will be no surprise if he adds to his tally.

However, O'Brien has won this 5 times and, though his IDAHO is unproven beyond 12 furlongs, his class is comfortably above that of Gosden's runner – 7lbs accoording to the handicapper but just 4lbs according to RPR. He was a close third in the English Derby and even closer behind Harzan in the Irish version.

I think the first three home in this years Derby are of above average standard, and they pulled way clear fof the thrid. A Derby place is usually a very good qualification to win this.

This is a tricky choice though. A second fav (2 such winners) with the more proven stamina but less class will apppeal to the value  seekers. However, given the record of favs (11 wins) i am going to opt for class  and go for what i think will win, which is  IDAHO (proven on Soft by the way with his close second to Derby winner Harzand in a Group 3 at Leopardstown in April over 10F on Heavy).

I think that Derby form is being underestimated (as i think may be confirmed in later races  at Leopardstown) and, if the rain does materialise, we may even get odds against, so be sure to take BOG!





6 favs won and 5 second favs

11 were returned 13/2 or less


All had an OR of 98+


Immaterial in today's race with both 3 and 4yo's having very similar strike rates. However, 3yo's have won twice as often (10 times) because they have had twice the number of runners


ALL had run 2-6 times in the last year

14 had run no more than 5 times  that season

ALL finished in the first 4 last time

6 won and 4 were second

14 won over 1 mile plus


This has been the AP  and Dermot show with O'Brien winning 6 of the 15 renewals and Weld 5.

On trends, Weld will equalise. He runs the unbeaten (this season) ZHUKOVA who is the only one who ticks all the boxes and is the trends horse.

But i am loathe to oppose one of the Derby horses i talked about in the St Leger preview.

US Army Ranger was our Derby advice and ran an absolute screamer. I thought Ryan Moore gave him plenty to do (though AP says the horse was "babyish") and he was a good 15 lengths last turning for home. The worthy winner, Harzan, turned Tattenham corner around 5 lengths ahead but his jockey kicked early and US Army Ranger, meeting a little trouble in running and having to be pulled out to the widest of the field, made ground hand over fist, looking like he may win at the furlong pole. The winner kept on well though, and our lad, having given his all to get to the heels of the winner, had to settle for the SIlver medal.

Here is the vid showing the race from the home  turn (US Army Ranger is in the Royal Bluue silks of Magnier):

He was given a break before blowing up having travelled well in a drop to this G3 class over 10 furlongs at the Curragh on Yielding. The trip wouldn't have helped as well as the  lay off. He is a mile and a halfer, for me.

He will strip fitter today and is the form horse. I get the feeling this isn't his target though and is a prep prace for the Arc (where he is a very tempting 25/1 in places at the moment). If i think he will win well tomorrow, it makes sense to back him now at 25/1 for the Arc, rather than tomorrow  at 11/10 and/or much reduced Arc odds.

Having said all that, this is a trends blog and the trends say ZHUKOVA, currently 11/4 second fav.





9 favs won and 6 second favs

No horse in the past 19 runnings was returned at an SP greater than 8/1

The first 4 in the betting have won every renewal

In short: this has been a race for market leaders

Handicap Rating (OR)

ALL rated 118 plus


3yo's 9-63 (14%), 4yo's  4-41 (10%)


17 ran between 3 and 7 times in the last year

15 had 3-5 runs that season

ALL finished in the first 5 last time

18 finished in the first 4

17 posted a first 3 finish last time

Of which 9 won and 6 finished second

17 had won over 10.5F or beyond (suggesting stamina is at a premium in this)


Siding with 3yo's the trends narrow it down to the first three in the betting MINDING, HARZAND & ALMANZOR.

As you will know if you have read the above, i am a big fan of this year's Derby form. I think  this or the Oaks form will prevail  but the  former was won in a time of 2:40.09 compared to the Oaks time of 2:42.66

The 15/19 victories for the first two in the betting narrow it down to MINDING and HARZAND on trends. The former's trainer has won this 7 times, so a win for the filly would be no surprise at all, but the clock and my esteem for the Derby form lead me to make HARZAND the selection at 3/1 generally the selection.












TV Trends, Friday Round Robin




Fav won 9 but second fav just twice

33/1 and 18/1 winnnners have surprised but all the rest were returned 11/1 or less

First 5 in betting won 17

Ratings (OR)

8 of the last 9 rated 100+


16 had run 2-6 times

17 posted a first 7 finish last time

9 of which won


No perfect fit here as the two last time out  winners in the market range – Afandem and The Last Lion – have had too many runs (7 and 8 respectively)

The only other on the trends shortlist finished fifth last time (ok but not ideal) and has no OR (last 2 runs in France) but, as current 3/1 fav in a race that the fav has won virtually half the time, the selection is TIS MARVELLOUS





Fav won 6 and second favs 3 – provided nearly half the winners

No big shocks with just the 20/1 winner. 16 were returned 10/1 or less

17 came from the first 7 in the betting


18 carried 9-8 or less

Official Rating (OR)

18 rated 102 or less


3yo's have dominated this both in numbers and strike rate wise with 10 wins  from 53 runners (19%)


18 ran 4-11 times in the preceding year

All had run between 1  and 8 times that season

15 finished in the first 5 last time

16 won over at least one mile three and a half furlongs

17 had already RAN over 1m6F

16 ran 8-30 days ago

NONE had a lay off longer than 60 days


Michael Bell, who has won this race twice,runs an interesting one, Fabricate,  that is very nearly a trends selection. It falls down on not having won over a mile and a half plus and not having run over 1M6F+.

The selection has won at todays trip and, a  big bonus, is a 3yo. WALL OF FIRE is the clear trends pick.






Favs won 6,second favs 4 and third favs won 5 = 15 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

A  further 3 winners were fourth in the betting making that 18/19 for the first 4


15 of the 16 that had a rating had a rating of 99 or more


7 and 3yo's have the best record with 5-20 (25%) and 2-9 (22%) respectively

4 and 6yo's are next best with 5-43 (12%) and 3-27 (11%)

5 yo's are next best with 3-35 (9%) and one 8yo has won from 13 to try (8%)

No horse older than 8 has won in this period


ALL had run  2-10 times in the past year

18 had run 2-6 times that season

16 posted a first 4 finish in their last run

9 won last time out

ALL had won over 1M6F or more

16 had won over 2 miles plus

18 had ran over 2 miles or further

ALL last ran 16-90 days ago


The trends narrow it down to just one who, though not the perfect age at 6, ticks all the boxes. QUEST FOR MORE is the definite trends horse.

Watch the market for Prescott's horse though. He has won this twice in the period and once was with the lowest rated winner, off an OR of just 85,over the last 19 runnings.

He runs the only 3yo, ST MICHEL, who may be worth an each way tickle as a seperate bet

Big G1 Sprint Haydock (32 Red Sprint) trends

SAT 3/9/16





Favs won 5 and second favs twice

The first 7 in the betting won 18 times – not a race for big shocks

Other than a 25/1 shot winning, the rest were returned 14/1 or less


Of the 16 to have an official rating, all were rated 104 plus and 15  had on OR of 109 or more.


3yo's and 5yo's have the best record with near idendtical strike rates, 7-71 (10%) for the former and 5-49 (10%) for the latter.

Their record is nearly twice as good as 4yo's who are 5-82 (6%)

No horse older than 7 has won this over the period.


18 had run between twice and 11 times in the last year

18 had run 2-7 times that season

ALL posted a top 6 finish last time out

15 finished in the first 4 last time

12 of which were in the first two (six each for the  winner and second)

16 won at 6 furlongs or further

Interestingly, 12 hadn't won at LESS than 6F suggesting stamina as well as speed is necessary in this

18  had run at 6F

15 were distance  winners

ALL ran 8-90 days ago


Henry Candy has won this twice in the last 6 years and saddles the fav, LIMATO, who has everything going for him trends wise barring age (4yo is ok but not ideal).

Ed Vaughan has had 7 runners in the last 14 days and 3 have won. Add to that his record at Haydock (4-9) and with his older horses here (4-6) and you see what i mean.

His MEHHRONISSA is priced around 40/1 at the moment and this 4yo has plenty going for her. But her rating of 105 would make her the second lowest rated and biggest priced winner in 20 years. Also, though not a negative, the record of 4yo's is not ideal. Not a trends horse but tempting with those stats!


Frankie Dettori is 8/18 riding for Charles Hills over the past two years and he rides MAGICAL MEMORY who has a seventh place finish last time to overcome, something no other winner has done over the last 19 years. Also, not ideal, a 4yo.


There is around 8mm of rain forecast before 4.30 tomorrow and the ground rode Good to Firm today. So the going should be no worse than Good tomorrow.

LIMATO is a worthy fav after chasing home Mecca's Angel last time over an inadequate 5 furlongs in the Nunthorpe. Beaten in a Group 3 on his only visit to this track, the ratings suggest he is not seen to best effect on a  flat track.

His G1 July Cup form over the trip at Newmarket is top class, and Irish raider DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT (who should be noted in the market!) franked that form by running second in a top class G1 over 6.5F next time at Deauville. He is only 1-4 in Group ones though.

However, on a line through the only 5yo in this, Suedois, there is nothing between these two and the Irish horse should not  be 8 times the price! Also the latter has the trends merit of being a 3yo.

QUIET REFLECTION has 2L and a hd to find with LIMATO on July Cup form, though the slightly slower ground should help.

TIN MAN is 0-2 in G1's.

Which leaves us with the filly DANCING STAR who did us all a favour when winning the £155K Stewards Cup  last time out, the  first filly to  do this since the great Lochsong back in 1994. This one is owned by Jeff Smith, owner of Lochsong, and is held in the highest regard.

She ticks all the trends boxes and is very much on the upgrade. At 10/1 with Paddy Power  as i type, DANCING STAR is the trends selection.

With those trainer stats of Ed Vaughan's though, i can't resist an each way tickle on MEHRONISSA at 40/1 generally. Though not a trends horse, it is a trainer stats punt.



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