Strike rate and losing runs, a cut out and keep table

I have ‘borrowed’ the  quote below from a recent blog by Kieran at Make Your Betting Pay. I will put the link at the bottom of this blog for the full article. It is so useful, especially the table, and uses such a scientific approach, that i have used about half the blog below.

Keiran says:

“We need to strike the right balance between leveraging our profits and protecting the integrity of our bank.

My usual starting point when carrying out this kind of analysis would be to calculate the longest expected losing run over 1000 bets. There is a formula for calculating this (mail me if you’re interested) but I tend to use a table which makes life a lot easier. I’ve reproduced the table below (it’s accurate enough for our purposes)

The important thing to remember here is that the larger the number of bets you look at, the longer the likely losing run will be. As an example with a 15% strike rate looked at over 1000 bets you are likely to hit a maximum losing run of 43 bets. However, if you were to have 10,000 bets with a similar strike rate, at some point you are likely to hit a losing run of 57 bets. That being the case, it’s useful to have a reasonable idea of the number of bets your selection method is going to throw up over a period of time. If you are looking at a method that throws up 300 bets a year then calculating your longest likely losing run over 1000 bets is ample. If you are looking at a method that throws up 10,000 bets a year, you need to dig a bit deeper than that.

Let’s assume the method we are analysing has 1000 bets a year with a strike rate of 60%. We can see from the table that we are likely to hit 8 consecutive losers at some point during year 1.

You can see that if we were to choose a 10% staking plan on such a method, we are almost certain to hit trouble and quite possibly decimate our bank at some point.

We therefore need our bank to be several times the size of our longest likely losing run – it is well within the realms of statistical possibility that we could get 2 such runs in quick succession!

For safety, I would say it is best to work with your bank broken down into a number of points that equates to 5 times your longest likely losing sequence.”

 

I think 5  times the maximum losing run is on the conservative side. A lot depends on what sort of start you get. If you’re off to a flyer, by the time the inevitable ‘crippler’ comes along you should have taken out more than enough profit  to set up a new bank  and won’t care. If you start on the bad run your faith in the system/method/tipster etc is shaken and you would probably abandon what may be a good thing. What is often forgotten though is that with percentage staking the stakes go down during losing runs so a losing run of ten wouldn’t be ten points lost but considerably less.

I heartily agree with everything else though. There is no doubt that basing your staking on avoiding one long  losing run is folly as it is more common that a series of losing  runs is the bank breaker. Therefore it is wise to allow for this.

The debate will rage on but, in the end, we are back to another grossly underestimated factor in betting – psychology. Some thrive on risk others prefer the more softly softly ” I don’t need the stress as  I would like to live to spend the winnings” approach. There is no “wrong” nor “right” way, (try telling the Frankie Dettori backers that day at Ascot that they were throwing their money away backing 7 horse accas!). Granted, the same people could do a £1 acca 7  every day  for the rest  of their lives and lose every day. But  they wouldn’t be complaining as the stakes would come out of the massive interest on their winnings!

There again though, if you are backing seriously, you have to work on the basis of probability and not possibility so it is a question of finding the optimum. For those who shun risk it will be five times the max or more. For those who thrive on it, maybe twice the max and for those who are trying to strike a happy medium, 2-4 times the max.
Whatever your appetite for risk, the  table above offers a  basis for making an informed choice. You can’t say you weren’t warned!

Here’s the link to Kieran’s site: http://makeyourbettingpay.co.uk/  . You will find the whole blog on there dated 18/1/12.

The Ebor trends, trainer and jockey stats

YORK 3.45 THE EBOR

Betting

A strange one for the markets with winners in the last 18 runnings at 100/1  33/1  25/1 four times and 20/1.

On the other hand, the first five in the betting won 8 times too, including  2 favs and 3 second favs.

So, 7 were returned 20/1 or greater and 8 came from the first five in the market.

Weight

Strong trends here with all the past 18 winners carrying 9-4 or less. This alone excludes 13 runners!

Official Ratings

Other than last year's winner, who had a rating of 106, all the other 17 were rated 102 or less,  which corresponds exactly with the weight trend.

Age

No horse older than 6 won over this period.

Only 20 three yoar olds have run with 3 winning, giving that age the best strike rate of 15%.

From a much bigger sample of  99, ten 5yo's have won.

Next best are 6 yo's with 2 out of  53 (4%) and 4 yo's trail in last, of those ages to have won, with just 3 wins from 152.

Form Profile

ALL ran between 3 and 12 times in the previous year

15 ran between 2-5 times that season

17 posted a top 9 finish last time (15 finished in the first 7)

15 had won over at least one and a half miles

15 had already ran over at least one mile six furlongs (today's trip)

ALL had their last run between 8 and 90 days ago

Trainers and Jockeys

Luca Cumani has won this 3 times in the last 18 years and his sole runner, Ajman Bridge, has a lot going for him – except he falls down on the very firm looking weight and ratings stats.

The Saeed bin Suroor yard is flying at present, with 7 winners from 22 runners the last 14 days, and he runs two. Wadi Al Hattawi who, carrying 9-7, rated 105 and with just the one run,  would have a non trends profile. The other, Excellent Result, has had too many runs and finished outside the top 9 last time out, as well as the weight and ratings issued of his stablemate.

John E Kiely has had 1 winner from 3 runners in the past two weeks as has Joseph Tuite.

The former's 6yo, Toe The Line , ticks all the boxes except he is not the ideal age, and he is shortlisted.

The latter's has age (7yo) and  a 491 days lay off to overcome.

Philip Makin has a 3/6 record for Andrew Balding over the past two years. He rides Havana Beat, but that one has the weight and ratings stat to overcome too. In fact, off 108, he would be the highest rated winner for at least the last 19 years.

The 7 lbs claimer, Jack Kennedy is 1/1 for Willie Mullins and he rides the lightly raced (on the  flat) Wicklow Brave. Another that is short listed.

Tom Marquand is 3/6 for David Evans the last 2 years and he rides the 6 yo John Reel who, having raced more than 5 times this season, wouldn't be a typical winner.

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow it  down  to just two (if we pass over the 4 yo Fun Mac -terrible record of 4 yo's and the once raced on the flat this season, Quick Jack):

WICKLOW BRAVE hails from the first 5 in the betting and has the best profile from that end of the market. Currently best priced 10/1.

TOE THE LINE seems to be running into form at just the right time, as is his yard, and could be the one if there is to be yet another big priced shock. Currently 28/1 best price.

 

 

TV Big Race Double

Let's hope that Gleneagles takes his chance on the allegedly Good to Soft going at York today. A lot depends on what the track was like before the 9 mm of rain yesterday and the 5mm over night. If it was fast ground then, the barely half an inch of rain  will have made virtually no difference. If already on the good to soft side, it will likely stay that  way.

I am  assuming the going will be Good and that  AP will run him. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of the King George non event where today's fav (will he run if the ground is softish?) was pulled out of a penalty kick event only for it to be fought out  by two fast ground horses!

But first, the Group 2 appetiser:

YORK 3.05 THE GREAT VOLTIGEUR

Betting

The fav has won 6 of the last 18 runnings and the second fav 3. So the first two have won half.

The first 4 have won 14 times.

Weight and Ratings

Of the 16 runners to have an  official rating, 15 were rated 103 plus.

Form Profile

None had less than 2 runs.

Only one had more than 6 lifetime runs.

16 had run between 1 and 4 times that season.

8 won last time

16 finished in the first four

14  had won over at least 10 furlongs

ALL had run over 10.5 furlongs or more

Trainer and Jockey stats

While, as a mere Group 2, not a race he farms, AP O'Brien has won this twice in the period examined. He runs three. Aloft has a decent trends profile but is a little further out in the betting than a  typical Voligeur winner. Bondi Beach has the perfect profile. Giovanni doesn't look good enough, though this is a drop in class from his last two runs where he was beaten around 10 lengths in both the English and Irish Derbies. I would prefer a win last time too, statistically.

The O'Brien yard is also in tip top  form with 12 wins from 31 runners in the past two weeks.

Willie Haggas has had 11/40 winners in the past fortnight and he runs paper fav Storm the Stars. He is over raced for this event with 9 runs in total and 7 this season. He may not go off fav as he is on the drift and money is coming in for Bondi Beach.

Joseph O;Brien has an amazing record for his Dad of 156/535, 29%, over the past two years.

CONCLUSION

We are looking for a lightly raced horse from the first four in the betting, rated 103 +, winner over at least 10 furlongs, and, preferably, won last time.

Only one horse ticks all the boxes and that hails from the yard of the man with all the trainer  and jockey stats too – Aidan O'Brien's BONDI BEACH

 

YORK 3.40 THE JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL

Betting

10/18 favs won but just 3 second favs. However, that means the first two won over two thirds of the last 18 runnings.

No horse was returned bigger than 8/1

ALL were from the first four in the betting

Ratings

Of the 16 to have had an official handicap rating, all were rated 116 plus. But all bar one of the remainder were rated 120 + and that includes all the last 7 rated winners.

Age

4 yo's have by far the best record with 10 wins from 50 runs. 3 yo's have just under half the strike rate with 4 – 44.

Form profile

Only two of the last 18 winners had not won over at least 10 furlongs

Only one had not run over that trip or longer

17 last ran between 16 and 60 days

8 won last time, 5 were second and 3 were third

The last three winning 3 yo's were Derby winners.

Trainers and Jockeys

Aidan O'Brien has won this 5 times over this period and 4 of the last 7. His other stats over the past fortnight and with his Son riding for him are listed in the analysis for the Voligeur above. He is the only  trainer in this with any notable stats.

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow this down to the first three in the betting; Golden Horn, Gleneagles and Time Test.

Gleneagles is untried over 10 furlongs. Only one such runner has won over the last 18 runnings. He also has to overcome the stat against horses whose last run was more than 60 days ago (none have done this).

This latter stat goes against Time Test too.

Though not the perfect age, GOLDEN HORN bids to become the fourth Derby winner on the run  to take this.

For my money he is an under rated Derby winner, the form of which was upheld when the runner up took the Irish Derby by 7 lengths and by the selection's subsequent Coral Eclipse victory.

He would have waltzed the King George had he been allowed to run on ground that was nowhere near the official Soft ground and, if Treve doesn't run in the Arc for  some reason, he will surely be fav for that.

I feel, contrary to those who question his stamina, that to win a Derby you must stay one and a half miles well and that is his best trip. However, he won the Coral Eclipse over this trip, he has a pacemaker in to make sure they go the pace and, above all, he has that quality that trumps everything  else – class.

That' not to say Gleneagles hasn't got  class. After all, he followed an excellent English 2000 Guineas win with one in the Irish equivalent. And last time he won the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. His lack of a run over 10 furlongs is the bugbear for me but let's hope he runs so we can have a clash of the Classic  winners!

I don't discount at all Time Test but, as well as the days since run stat and the fact he is taking on two true champions, he  looks  like a horse who really does need fast ground, as his trainer has stated. It doesn't look like he will get it today and he would need everything right to win in this company today i feel.

So, at 5/1, I thnk Gleneagles is the best option for each way backers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weatherby’s Super Sprint – race trends & trainer stats

NEWBURY 3.45

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT

LAST 17 RUNNINGS SINCE 1997

Betting

Considering the  big fields and the number of unexposed horses, there have been surprisingly few shocks in the 17 runnings since 1997. A 100/1 shot of Hannon's won, but other than that, one 25/1 and a 20/1 won with the next longest priced winner being returned at 14/1.

14 were returned at 10/1 or less.

Average race for favs with 5 of the 17 winnings and below average for second favs with just 2 winning.

The first 5 in the betting won 14.

Weight

ALL are within the weight range but:-

17 carried 9-1 or less and 16 hauled 8-11 or lighter.

At the other end, 17 carried 8-1 plus, while 16 carried 8-5 +

Ratings

Only 2 of the last 17 winners had a handicap rating and they were rated 85 and 104

Form profile

ALL had run between 1 and 5 times.

16 had already won

7 of them won last time

16 made the first 8 in their last run

14 were distance winners  and the other 2 had won over 6 furlongs (of 5 to try)

16 won between 8 and 60 days ago

Trainers

The Hannon family have won this 5 times in the last 17 runnings and Tim Easterby won it twice.

Hannon has 6 of the 25 runners tomorrow  and Easterby has 4.

Of those 10 (or 40% of the field!) the ones from the first 5 in the betting are , in betting order: the Easterby trained 3/1 fav, Excessable, the Hannon trained 5/1 third fav (which have won 4 of the last 17,  nearly as good as the record of favs), Great Page, and the joint 4th fav, 10/1 shot ,Receding Waves. All three have excellent trends profiles.

Also, Tim Easterby has a 4-14 strike rate at the course over the past 5 seasons.

Karl Burke has a 1-3 strike rate with his 2yo's here and he runs the unexposed Moondyne Joe who, at around the 14's to 16's mark, may well be backed and any market move should be noted.

CONCLUSION

With the dominance of Hannon and the fact he has 2 of the first 5 in the betting, this must surely be the first port of call.

The horse with the form in the book Great Page, who has experience with 4 runs to date, the latest when close up in  a Group 3 at the Curragh. Jockey arrangements and the betting would also suggest this is the best Hannon horse. He also has the statistical advantage of not having a handicap mark.

However, RECEDING WAVES has improved 11 lbs on the Racing Post Ratings (RPR), in each of his two runs since his debut, swooping late and fast at Chepstow over this trip for his second win, having previously scored over 6F.

His profile of 3 runs and a win last time clinch it from a trends point of view. Though having a handicap mark of 91 wouldn't be typical.

The other that shouldn't be overlooked is Tim Easterby's Excessable, given the trainers record at the course and in this race. Also he is fav in a race that is ok for favs. Another with no handicap rating.

But, no hedging, my bet is:-

1 pt Each Way RECEDING WAVES

 

 

 

 

The Old Newton Cup trends

SAT 4/7/15

HAY 2.50

THE OLD NEWTON CUP

TRENDS FROM LAST 18 RUNNINGS SINCE 1997

Odds

Other than a maverick 40/1 winner, all the other 17 of the last 18 runnings were returned 16/1 or less.

16 came from the first 8 in the betting

Favs won just twice, as did second favs.

Weight

ALL carried 9-8 or less and 17 carried 8-6  or more

Handicap Ratings

None won off a mark higher than 101

Only one won off 96 or higher.

Age

Dominated by 4yo's in terms of numbers and strike rate, providing 12 of the last  18 winners from 113 runners (11%)

3 yo's haven't won, but that is from just 14 runners;

5, 6 and 7 yo's have around the same strike rate of 5% and no horse older has won in the time under consideration.

Form Profile

15 Ran 2 – 8 times in the last year

17 had between 1 to 5 runs that season. None were making their debut

ALL won over a minimum of 10.5 furlongs

13 won over one and a half miles and two.

All ran between 8 – 90 days, no more, no less

6 won their latest run, 3 were second and 15 had finished in the first 9 last time

Trainers

Luca Cumani has won this race 3 times in the last 18 years and twice in the last 10. He runs the 4 yo Penhill which has a great trends profile.

William Knight's yard is in top form, with 4 winners from 12 runners over the last 14 days and 2 out of 6 at the course. He runs Saoi who is an 8yo who ran  just 7 days ago. Not a trends profile for this race.

CONCLUSION

If we look for a 4 yo from the first 8 in the betting and priced 16/1 or less, rated 96 or less, that had already won over at least one and a half miles and finished in the first 9 in its last run between 7 and 90 days ago, we have a shortlist of 3;

The record of favs is poor but the record of Luca Cumani's runners aren't. PENHILL ticks all the boxes and i will take him as my win bet atr 4/1 as i write.

Of the other two ELPERETH has the stats  advantage of having won last time, (though hasn't won over further than 10F on turf) as did a third of all the previous 18 winners but FARQUHAR  put up a great performance in a 62K Newmarket handicap on similar ground in a fast time last October over the trip. He finished 13l ahead of Penhill that day but the latter improved 19 lbs on that performance according to RPR on his seasonal and trainer debut when winning at Ascot in May. There is just a 1 lb weight pull in it between them and they are my two against the field:

PENHILL to win @ 4/1 generally

FARQUHAR E/W @ 14/1 generally

Northumberland Plate trends & stats

SATURDAY 27/6/15

NEWCASTLE 3.45

THE NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE

Betting

Two 33/1 shots  and a 25/1 have taken this in the last 18 runnings. A 16/1 winner and three at 14/1  have won too.  So, while a few horses neglected in the market have sprung a few surprises, 14/18 were returned 14/1 or less.

This is borne out by the fact that 14 winners came from the first 8 in the betting.

Favs are at a below par 4 wins with second favs drawing a blank (and this includes joints and co's). Two lessons from this. Don't be afraid to take the fav on and, if you are going to back one of the first two, make sure it is the fav as the market tends to get it right between the first two in this race. Also bear in mind that the fav has won  2 of the last 3 runnings

Weight

No horse carried more than 9-10 and 16 carried 9-3 or less.

Handicap Rating

All were rated 104  or less and 17 ran off a mark of 102 or less which near perfectly ties in with the  weight range

Age

Of those ages represented today, 6 yo's have by far the best record with 6  wins from 63 runners (10%%)

Next best are 4yo's who have scored 6 – 133 or 5%, ie, less than half the wins to runs record than the 6yo's.

There are only a couple of 7yo's in the race and that age has a 1/36, or 3%, strike rate.

5yo's have an abysmal record with just 1 win from 74 tries.

Form Profile

13 ran between 3 and 9 times in the preceding year.

14 ran between 1 – 3 times that season

4 won their last run, 5 were second and 4 were third, so 13 posted a first three finish last time and 15 had finished in the first 5 last time.

17 Had won over at least 12 furlongs  and  15 had won over 14F plus.

Trainer Stats

Willie Mullins yard is bang in form with 2 winners from 6 runners the last 2 weeks. He runs Max Dynamite who has too much weight and is to high in the handicap for a trends selection  Also a 5yo.

Roger Charlton has only sent one here the past 5 years, and that won. He saddles the  fav, Quest for More. Another 5 yo a little too high in the weights but, given the recent record of favs not to be lightly dismissed.

CONCLUSION

A 6yo, not too lightly raced over the past year, but not over cooked either, rated 102 or less, from the first 8 in the betting and with a first 3 run last time narrows it down to just two; BLUE SURF and TOTALISE (who has a 6 lbs pull for a length and a half  beating  at the trip, by stable mate, Seamour last time) 

I will be  backing both but preference is for the latter who has already won over 14 furlongs and proven he stays this trip well

 

 

 

Wokingham race trends and trainer stats

Saturday 5.00 ASCOT

THE WOKINGHAM

Betting

No major shocks over the last 18 runnings since 1997. One 25/1 and a couple of 20/1 shots won, which is what you would expect in such a large field, competitive handicap.

The other 15 winners were returned 16/1 or less.

4 favs won and 2 second favs

The first 8 in the betting won 15

Weight

The range covers all todays field but 17 carried 9-7 or less.

Ratings

All were rated 107 or less, which ties in exactly with the latter stat.

Age

No 3 yo, nor horse older than 6, has won this over the period.

5 yo's have done, proportionaltely, about twice as well as other ages with 8 winners from 116 runners (a 7% wins to runs record)

4 yo's and 5 yo's have done roughly the same, percentage – wise with the former scoring 7-164 (4%) and the latter 3-97 (3%) .

Form Profile

ALL the last 18 winners ran between 1 and 11 times in the past year

ALL ran between 1 – 4 times that season

17 finished in the first 4 in their last race

7 won at a maximum of 6 furlongs

10 won at a maximum of 7 furlong – but no further

14 were distance winners

TRAINER STATS

Tom Dascombe's yard seems to be the one whose strike rate has survived the week best – probably through discretion being the better part of valour! 5 of his 18 runners in the last 14 days have won and he runs Huntsmans Close, who, at his current forecast odds, would be the longest priced winner of this in 19 seasons. However, it may be worth watching the market as this 5 yo ticks the other boxes.

Chris Dwyer has sent just two out the past fortnight and one has won. He saddles Basil Berry who has run too may times this season to be anywhere near a typical winner.

CONCLUSION

If we start with the first 8 in the betting, all those, at present, 16/1 or under in the current betting, and look for horses that have run between one and four times and posted a first 4 finish last time, the field is immediately narrowed down to two: ROBERT LE DIABLE and KICKBOXER. I will make them my two against the field with preference for the former as it has won over 7 furlongs and was second (2L receiving a pound) to the well fancied – but withdrawn here earlier this week, Mecca's Angel. He was staying on well that day and the time was very fast at 1.56 secs faster than standard.

On that evidence, there should be no worries about the ground, plus French Good (which he has won on over 6F) is the equivalent to UK Good to Firm. This is a very versatile horse who has been in with somewhere near the best, won on a wide variety of goings  and over 5, 6 and 7 furlongs.

As you can probably tell, i am keen on this one, but, in a big field handicap, and with the French not having won this in the period i have looked at, i  have put the other in as insurance.

 

 

 

 

KING’S STAND STAKES race trends and trainers stats

TUESDAY 16TH JUNE

ASCOT 3.40

KING'S STAND STAKES

This is a remarkably cosmopolitan race in that no less than half of the last 18 winners have come from outside the British Isles.

Much as this adds to the prestige of, and interest in,  the race, it skews the trends somewhat as, before 2010, they didn't have a proper international handicapping system. So, non UK or Irish winners before then were counted as not having a rating.

Also, using HorseRaceBase, as i always do for the facts that enable me to assemble these posts and come up with selections, all these overseas winners are counted as not having a run – debutants effectively – and are treated as  such in the days since run stats.

Don't think i am having a go at HRB. Their race stats are great and, if you fancy your chances of  analysing  the big races yourself, it is worth taking a look. However, it is a database for the UK and Ireland. There are often some small  anomolies due to foreign winners but i don't know of  any other race so dispropotionately represented in the winners enclosure from overseas as this race.

All that said, with a little discernment, their are some interesting trends and here they are:-

Betting

A mix. Not great for favs or second favs with 2 each winning in the last 18 runnings

However, 16 came from the first 8 in the betting, the biggest SP being 20/1.

The other two were returned 33/1 and 25/1

Weight

All between 9-1 and 9-4

The last 6 were all males carrying 9-4

Ratings

Of the 9 to have a handicap rating, 7 were rated 111 plus

The last 6 winners were all rated 113 plus

Since 2003, all the 7 winners with a handicap rating were rated 112  or more.

Age

5 ,6 and 7yo's have by far the best record in this with 13 wins between tham and each around 9% wins to runs ratios.

This seems a race for mature types, as only 5 out of 154 of the 3 and 4 yo's to try have won.

At the other end of the spectrum, 24  8yo's and older have tried and none have won. For Sole Power fans (including me) 8 yo's alone are 0-16

Form Profile

This is where it gets difficult viz the foreign winners. Here i will have to rely on the information to hand of the British and Irish winners.

All 9 were distance winners

Of these, 6 had  won over further – 5 at 6 furlongs and  1 at 7F

8 posted a first 3 finish in their previous race and all 9 had finished  in the first 5

4 won, 1 was second  and three finished third last time.

Trainers

Top of the in form yards is William Haggas who  has saddled 11 winners fromm 33 runners. He runs Muthmir who ticks all my trends boxes.

Next best is William Muir who has Stepper Point who falls down on the first 5 last time out run trend.

Dean Ivory's yard is bang in form with 4 wins from 14 runs the past fortnight, and a 1-1 record with his older horses,  but his Lancelot Du Lac has both a duck egg for its last run and a rating of 108 to overcome trends wise.

As regards record at the course, no-one in this race can hold a candle to Edward Lynam whose Sole Power has won this the last twice. His runners have a 5-15 overall strike rate at the course and all in races for older horses. I am a huge fan of Sole Power and he has his conditions. But, firstly, he is an 8yo (the record of which was discussed above), and secondly only he and Equiano have won this twice. Sole Power is the only one to win back to back but, as far as i know, no horse has won this 3 times in the races history.

Jim Goldie doesn't send many all the way down from Scotland, but when he has in the past 5 years 1 of his 3 runners in races for older horses won. His Jack Dexter has a lot going for him but his official rating of 109 puts him just below the class needed since 2003.

CONCLUSION

From the first 8 in the betting, aged 5, 6 or 7, rated 111 plus and with a  first 5 run last time narrows it down to one – the bang in form Haggas yard's MUTHMIR, who has the bonus of having won over 6 furlongs as well as 5;

Those looking for an each way bet could do worse than take a chance on David Baron's Pearl Secret who falls down only on the ratings by one point.

Sole Power will raise the roof if he makes history by winning this a third time. Everything is in his favour – which is why he is fav – except the trends! He looked as good as ever when winning in Dubaii the time before last and his last run can safely be ignored, i think, as it now seems obvious that 6 furlongs is not his trip.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oaks race trends and trainer stats

FRIDAY 4.30 EPSOM,THE OAKS

Betting

Overall, this has been a good race for favs with 7 of the last 18 winning. This has dropped to 3 of the past 10 if we look at the more recent trends.

Ditto with big priced winners. In the 11 runnings between 1997 and 2007 the biggest priced winner was 12/1 with the next highest SP of 13/2.

In the 7 years since, a 33/1 shot and three 20/1 winners have come in!

This has not been a good race for second favs either with just one winner in the period.

So, a mixed bag. The longer term trends say good race for the fav and those priced 9/1 or less (11 of the last 18 winners). The last 10 years say a so so race for favs, with 3 winning, and with 7 priced 5/1 or higher and 6 priced 13/2 or bigger up to 33/1.

The one abiding feature is that 17 of the last 18 winners came from the first 8 in the betting.

Weight and Ratings

All carry 9.00 as usual.

Of the 11 that had acquired an official handicap rating, an OR, the lowest rated was 94.

8 of those 11 were rated 103+

Form Profile

ALL had run between once and 13 times

13 had run between 2 and 5 times.

ALL had run between once and 3 times that season

12 won last time out

3 finished second

16 of the last 18 winners of this had posted a first 3 finish last time

ALL had won over at least a mile

11 had won over 10 furlongs

Curiously, only two had won at or beyond one mile three and a half.

Put another way, 16/18 had won between 1 mile and 10.5 furlongs.

Only 1 was already a distance winner.

Trainer Stats

There are two bang in form yards:

Michael Stoute's has had 29 runners in the past two weeks with 11 winning. He runs Crystal Zvezda who is the close forecast second fav. Other than that bad stat, she has a near perfect profile.

Andre Fabre's yard have won with 7 of their last 22 runners (including last Sundays French Derby) in the past fortnight. He runs forecast 16/1 chance Al Namah, who, but for her second last time, and the lack of a win beyond 7 furlongs (though only beaten a short neck over 10.5 furlongs in a Saint Cloud G3 last time) would have a good profile for this too.

It should also be noted that Fabre has had one winner at Epsom from just 3 runners over the past five years and is 1 from 2 with his 3yo's. Given the recent trend for surprises, this is one that interests me.

CONCLUSION

This is a tricky trends race with nine of them not completely excluded on trends.

Firstly, it is hard to know what will go off fav. Off past records, this could be important as the market generally gets it right between the first two in the betting.

At present, Newmarket 1000 Guinees winner, Legatissimo, is a 5/2 fav. Deservedly so having won that race after just a week off! Her win in a Gowran Listed race over 9.5 furlongs  is just half a furlong short of the 10 furlongs that 11 of the last 18 winners had won over.

The clear 3/1 second fav is Stoute's Crystal Sverda and, if it remains second fav, that would put me off.

So, I am going to apply the trends as follows: From the first 8 in the betting, that won last time, won over 10 furlongs or further, rated 103 plus and is not second fav.

Assuming the betting stays as it is, that leaves us with two: Musidora winner (provided one winner from the last 10 runnings of this), Star of Seville, who, despite having fitness and weight concessions just scraped home in the Musidora, I thought, by a head and, according to people who know about breeding, is not guaranteed to get this longer trip; and LADY OF DUBAI who, having been beaten just half a length in a Newmarket listed race by last years French Guinees runner up, Irish Rookie, in her last race over a mile last season, seemed to relish being upped in trip to 10 furlongs when winning a Goodwood (similar to Epsom but the other way round) Listed race “comfortably” last time out by four and a half lengths.

She posted an 11 lbs improved rating that day and can surely be expected to come on from that race. Again, knowing nothing about breeding, I am at the mercy of the Racing Post, who inform me that she is “bred to relish middle-distances “ you would expect the trip to bring some improvement as well.

In a competitive renewal of the Oaks, I make her my each way race trends selection at 12/1 with Hills and some of the smaller bookies.

Living in France, I can testify to the form of the Fabre yard and was taken with his Derby winner last Sunday. His record here is very encouraging and, given the recent spate of surprise winners, I take AL NAMAH as my each way trainer stats bet. Currently available at 18/1 with Paddy Power.

 

Lockinge Stakes 2015 race trends

NEWBURY 4.15 THE LOCKINGE STAKES

This race has been dominated by 3 trainers in the past 18 years; Richard Hannon has won 3 of the last 5 runnings, Saed Bin Suroor 5 of the past 18 runnings and Michael Stoute 3.

Betting

Fav won 9 of the past 18 runnings and second favs 4 times

One 20/1 shot won but all the others were returned 9/1 or less

First 4 in betting won 16/18

Ratings

The 12 that had a handicap ratings were all rated 116 plus

Age

4 and 5yo's have completely dominated this with 17 winners between them and a wins to runs ratio of 13%. The only other winner was 6  with a strike rate of 6%.

Form Profile

ALL had between 1-6 runs in the last year

ALL were either making their seasonal debut or had just one run that season. 15 the former, 3 the latter.

16 won at 1 mile plus (10F max)

Distance winner x 15

6 won last time, 4 were second and ALL finished in the first 6 in their latest run

ALL ran between 8-30 or 121 -365days since their last run

TRAINERS

Other than the trainers recods in this race listed at the start, the following are of note:

Willie Haggas has a 5/18 strike rate with his older horses here and he trains Yuftur who has plenty going for him trends-wise except he would be the joint longest priced winner of this in the last 18 runnings.

Michael Stoute has won with 4 of his 13 four yo plus runners here in the past 5 seasons and he runs second fav Integral, who has to overcome the stat that ALL the last 18 winners finished in the first 6 last time.

CONCLUSION

If we start with the 16 winners from the first 4 in the betting (9 of which were favs) then look at 4 or 5 yo's  with a rating of 114 plus and  a first 6 run last time plus a win at between a mile and a mile and a quarter, we are left with two horses from the yard who have farmed this over the past 5 years – the Hannon stable.

Last year's 2000 Guinees winner on his seasonal debut,  NIGHT OF THUNDER, conqueror of Kingman and Australia in that race will surely get the pace he needs in this 18 runner race and is the fav (9 of the last 18 won) and deservedly so. Though it is interesting that Richard Hughes (who i presume had the choice) has opted for third fav Toormore who may be more tot he taste of each way backers

 

 

WHITBREAD race trends and trainer stats 2015

SAN 3.50 BET 365 CHASE (THE WHITBREAD) – last 18 runnings

Betting

A mixture. 9 were returned between 14/1 & 25/1 (twice).

Yet 14 came from the first 8 in the betting, which would mean 14/1 or less today.

Weight

17 carried 11-5 or less

Ratings

ALl  ran off handicap marks of 154 or less (which ties in exactly with the weight stat)

Age

6, 7, 8 & 11 yo's have the best record with 1 win from 13 runners (8%), 4-41 ((10%), 6-89 (9%) and 3-34 (9%) respectively.

9 yo's have won 3 times from 78 runners (4%) but 10 yo's scored just 1-69 and 7 of the 20 runners are 10 yo's!

Form Profile

ALL had won over at least two and a half miles with 15 winning over at least 3 miles

15 had run between 3 and 5 times that season

Just 2 were last time out winners but 5 finished second last time. 11 posted a first 6 finish last time.

NONE fell last time, (from 34 last time out fallers to try) though two unseated and one pulled up.

All ran within the last 60 days.

Trainer Stats

The bang in form (12 winners from 34 runners the last 14 days) yard is that of Philip Hobbs.He runs three, two of which are 10 yo's,  who have a terrible record in this. The other one is the 8 yo Record Spring who ticks a lot of boxes except his lack of a first 6 run last timeand is shortlisted.

Paul Nicholls is the top trainer at the course and his chasers here are 27/94. He saddles the highly rated (and weighted) Unioniste who, as well as his weight, has the last time out fall to overcome stats wise.

His other runner Has a near perfect trends profile but is very quirky. Just A Par doesn't wear blinkers for nothing but he is definitely one for the shortlist.

Henry de Bromhead doesn't send many over to Sandown but they are to be watched when he does. He has sent 2 chasers over the past few years and 1 has won. This is not a great race for the Irish but they have won 2 of the last 10 runnings. He trains Grand Jesture who, though he has the negative of no 3 miles win,  was second at the Cheltenham Festival in a valuable 3m 1f handicap. Another for the shortlist.

CONCLUSION

Looking for a horse from the first 8 in the betting, aged 6, 7, 8 & 10, that had 3 to 5 runs this season,  won over 3 miles plus and preferably with a first 6 place last time out, within the last 60 days leads us to no qualifier. The nearest are Grand Jesture And Lost Legend (6 runs this season) who finished 2nd and 6th in the 51K handicap at Cheltenhham referred to above won by susequent strongly fancied Grand National faller, the Druid's Nephew.

Grand Jesture was beaten only three and three quarter lengths that day with Lost Legend a further 12 lengths back. However, the latter gave the former a pound that day but receives 6 lbs tomorrow, so it could be closer this time. Also, Jonjo has a good record in these staying handicaps, though not this particular race.

Neither have won over the required 3 miles though, as had 15 of the last 18 winners.

To find one that has, you have to go outside the first 8 in the betting, right up to equalling the 25/1 biggest SP for this race during the past 18 renewals.

With Paul Nicholls record in big races throughout the season, it would be folly to dismiss a horse that ticks  all the trends boxes. Just A Par beat the smart Third Intention by 14 lengths in a 3 mile Grade 2 in November 2013, gettingan RPR of 155 (runs off 140 tomorrow). However, having followed up with a decent 7th in the Sun Alliance Chase at the 2014 Festival, he seems to have gone backwards and has had an assortment of headgear on and off for his last 7 races. He achieved his best RPR since his defeat of Third Intention last time when third in a £7K handicap, but here is what the write  up says: "Never travelling and pushed along throughout, in last trio, in touch 13th, driven before next, stayed on same pace from 3 out, went 3rd nearing finish, never threatened "

Blinkers are back on tomorrow and it wouldn't be the  biggest shock if Nicholls worked the oracle as he has so often this season on the big days. This horse doesn't look in love with the game though and, on what i know, i couldn't be having him.

Next is Return Spring who finished 9th in the Cheltenham race where Grand Jesture and Lost Legend finished 3rd and 6th, but he was beaten 41L. He has proven stamina in that he has won over 3 miles one and a half furlong and some decent form going back to his close third to King's Palace last December. Raced prominently and was on the premises until weakening before clobbering the second last in the above Cheltenham race but all his best form has been on ground easier than tomorrows.

Finally the 6 YO Algernon Pazham who ran an absolute screamer behind the classy Virak last time, gaining an RPR of 145, and, after having hit the last, being beaten just 7 lengths receiving just 9lbs. However, having just the four chase runs and having refused the time before last, i doubt his jumping will be good enough here. I could be wrong and if he jumps well he is thrown in here but on balance, not for me tomorrow.

You will have discerned from the length of this conclusion that this is by no means clear cut and that there is no perfect trends fit. So, we have to decide between those two from the first 8 in the betting who have top class recent form but fall down on the 3m plus win trend (although with stamina proven), and those with the requisite 3 miles win but from outside the first 8 and with doubts about recent form or experience.

I am going to discriminate in favour of the former. I think that the latest run of GRAND JESTURE has the best from on offer amongst the trends candidates and his shrewd trainer has selectively and successfully placed his chasers here.

With the weight pull and the longer trip, it wouldn't surprise me if LOST LEGEND didn't make a fight of it so i am going to take those two against the field (currently 15/2 – from 16's! – and 20/1 respectively.

 

 

 

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