Strike rate and losing runs, a cut out and keep table

I have ‘borrowed’ the  quote below from a recent blog by Kieran at Make Your Betting Pay. I will put the link at the bottom of this blog for the full article. It is so useful, especially the table, and uses such a scientific approach, that i have used about half the blog below.

Keiran says:

“We need to strike the right balance between leveraging our profits and protecting the integrity of our bank.

My usual starting point when carrying out this kind of analysis would be to calculate the longest expected losing run over 1000 bets. There is a formula for calculating this (mail me if you’re interested) but I tend to use a table which makes life a lot easier. I’ve reproduced the table below (it’s accurate enough for our purposes)

The important thing to remember here is that the larger the number of bets you look at, the longer the likely losing run will be. As an example with a 15% strike rate looked at over 1000 bets you are likely to hit a maximum losing run of 43 bets. However, if you were to have 10,000 bets with a similar strike rate, at some point you are likely to hit a losing run of 57 bets. That being the case, it’s useful to have a reasonable idea of the number of bets your selection method is going to throw up over a period of time. If you are looking at a method that throws up 300 bets a year then calculating your longest likely losing run over 1000 bets is ample. If you are looking at a method that throws up 10,000 bets a year, you need to dig a bit deeper than that.

Let’s assume the method we are analysing has 1000 bets a year with a strike rate of 60%. We can see from the table that we are likely to hit 8 consecutive losers at some point during year 1.

You can see that if we were to choose a 10% staking plan on such a method, we are almost certain to hit trouble and quite possibly decimate our bank at some point.

We therefore need our bank to be several times the size of our longest likely losing run – it is well within the realms of statistical possibility that we could get 2 such runs in quick succession!

For safety, I would say it is best to work with your bank broken down into a number of points that equates to 5 times your longest likely losing sequence.”

 

I think 5  times the maximum losing run is on the conservative side. A lot depends on what sort of start you get. If you’re off to a flyer, by the time the inevitable ‘crippler’ comes along you should have taken out more than enough profit  to set up a new bank  and won’t care. If you start on the bad run your faith in the system/method/tipster etc is shaken and you would probably abandon what may be a good thing. What is often forgotten though is that with percentage staking the stakes go down during losing runs so a losing run of ten wouldn’t be ten points lost but considerably less.

I heartily agree with everything else though. There is no doubt that basing your staking on avoiding one long  losing run is folly as it is more common that a series of losing  runs is the bank breaker. Therefore it is wise to allow for this.

The debate will rage on but, in the end, we are back to another grossly underestimated factor in betting – psychology. Some thrive on risk others prefer the more softly softly ” I don’t need the stress as  I would like to live to spend the winnings” approach. There is no “wrong” nor “right” way, (try telling the Frankie Dettori backers that day at Ascot that they were throwing their money away backing 7 horse accas!). Granted, the same people could do a £1 acca 7  every day  for the rest  of their lives and lose every day. But  they wouldn’t be complaining as the stakes would come out of the massive interest on their winnings!

There again though, if you are backing seriously, you have to work on the basis of probability and not possibility so it is a question of finding the optimum. For those who shun risk it will be five times the max or more. For those who thrive on it, maybe twice the max and for those who are trying to strike a happy medium, 2-4 times the max.
Whatever your appetite for risk, the  table above offers a  basis for making an informed choice. You can’t say you weren’t warned!

Here’s the link to Kieran’s site: http://makeyourbettingpay.co.uk/  . You will find the whole blog on there dated 18/1/12.

Eider Chase race trends and trainer/jockey stats

NEWCASTLE 2.55 THE EIDER CHASE

Betting

The fav won 3 of the past 14 runnings and the second fav won 4

12/14 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and 10 from the first 3.

A 28/1 surprise has won, along with a 16/1 shot, but this hasn't been a race for surprises and the other 12 all went off 11/1 or less.

Weight

All carried between 10-00 and 11-12.

12/14 – including ALL the past 10 – carried 11 stone plus.

Ratings

All were rated 139 or less.

Age

7 and 8yo's have the best record with the former winning twice but from just 18 runners (11%) and the latter winning 4 from 34 (12%).

For the rest, the older they are the lower their strike rates, with 9 yo's winning 4-51 (8%), 10 yo's 3-54 (6%) and just 1-26 for the 11 yo's – 4%.

Form Profile

All had previously won over at least 3m and half a furlong with 13 winning over at least 3m 1f.

5 won last time out of the 10 who  finished in the first 4 last time.

12 posted a first 7 finish in their latest race.

All ran in the last 90 days

12 ran within 30 days

Trainers and Jockeys

There are three bang in form yards with runners in this:

Kim Bailey, who saddles Knockanrawley, who ticks nearly all the boxes, has had 4 winners from 11 runners in the past 2 weeks.

Stuart Coultherd runs the 9yo, 33/1 shot, Sharney Sike. His yard have sent out 2 winners form just 6 runners this past fortnight.

Nicky Richards has sent out 3 winners from 8  over the same period. He has Tutchec, who, like two previous winners, pulled up last time.

Daryl Jacob is 2/5 for Emma Lavelle and rides top weight Shotgun Paddy. An 8yo who is at the right end of the weights and who finished third last time appeals. However only one has carried that weight in the past 14 renewals and he runs off a mark 8lbs higher than any of the previous 14 winners

CONCLUSION

KNOCKANRAWLEY almost picks himseld from a trends angle

.He is  the only horse in the race who carries 11-00 or more and is rated 139 or less, he comes from the first 5 in the betting, is a 7yo who won last time over 3m 2f. The only blot on his trends copybook is the 54 days since a  run but i am willing to overlook that in the light of the positives

 

 

TV big race trends/stats Saturday

WARWICK 2.05 KINGMAKER NOVICE CHASE

Betting

Favs won 7 of the last 15, and second favs won 6. One of the remaining two was the 7/2 3rd fav.

No shocks with the longest SP being 8/1, then 11/2, then our 7/2 third fav.

Weight

All qualify

Ratings

Of the 9 with an official rating, all were rated 134 plus – all qualify

Age

5 and 6 yo,s have dominated this with 6 wins from18 runners (33%) for the former and 3-10 (30%) for the latter. With no 5 yos running, it is the 6 yo that has almost double the chance on trends against the 5- 28 (18%) for the 7 yos and over 3  times the chance against the 1-9 for the 8 yos.

Form Profile

All bar one ran 60 days or less ago.

10 won their last race

Trainer Stats

Paul Nicholls and Alan King have won nearly half of the last 15 renewals between them with 4 and 3 wins respectively.

The in form yards are Alan King with 5/18 over the past fortnight and Richard Lee with 1/2.

At the  course, Paul Nicholls is top dog strike rate wise with 10/29 over the last 5 seasons and 7/16 with his chases.

Alan King's chasers have a 10/29 win rate over the same period.

CONCLUSION

Given the record of the first two in the betting, this looks a trends match between VIBRATO VALTAT and Top Gamble. The clincher is the superior wins to runs record of 6 yo's. Add to that the trainers record in the race and the horses proven form in and above this grade (has won two Grade 2's and  a Grade 1) as aginst the class 3 form of Top Gamble and the trends and form case are hard to oppose.

Given Alan King's stats, Turnover Sivola could look tempting. But, as an 8 yo with no run for 70 days and no winning run last time He would be an atypical trends winner.

 

NEWBURY 2.25 THE DENMAN CHASE

Betting

Favs won 6 of the last 14 runnings and second favs won two.

The first 3 in the betting won 11 and the first 5 won 13.

One surprise at 33/1 but the rest were two 12/1 shots then the next shortest was 13/2.

Weight

All within range

Ratings

Of the 13 to have an official rating, all were rated 148+

Age

7yos have the best record by a mile with 6 winners from 13 runners (46%). This compares favourably with the 4/27 (15%) for 8 yos and 1/17 (6%) for 9 yos.

Form Profile

Ten had 2 or 3 runs this season

5 won last time, 2 were second, 3 third, and é finished 4th. The other two pulled up.

12 of the 14 had won over 3 miles plus.

11 had won over further and 10 were distance winners.

Trainers

Just the one stat – Paul Nicholls has farmed this race, providing 8 of the last 14 winners! An amazing record.

CONCLUSION

Given the record of 7 yos at or near the top of the market and the record of  P Nicholls there is a shortlist of one: UNIONISTE, who has won over this course and distance and over further (3m 1f). Indeed, according to RPR figures, the  further he has gone the better he performs.

 

NEWBURY 3.00 THE GAME SPIRIT CHASE

Betting

9 of the last 17 favs won and 6 of the second favs

All 17 came from the first 4 in the betting

All were returned 5/1 or less with 15 coming in at 7/2 or less

Weight

All are within the range but only a select band of 3 carried 11-10: Ask Tom, Azertyioup and Master Minded.

A peak form Sire de Grugy would beat the first, give the second a race but not the latter at his very best. Only Moscow Flyer of the last 15  years 2mile chasers could have lived with that pace.

The big question in this race is how close is sire de Grugy to his best?

Ratings

Of the 17 winners, 13 had a  rating.

All these 13 were rated 149+ and 12 rated 152 or more.

Age

There are only 7 and 9 yos in this so: 7yos won 3 times from 12 runners (25%) compared to 3-24 (13%) for the 9 yo's.

Form Profile

6 have tried to win this after a break of more than 121 days but only 1 won.

14/17  had between 1 and 3 runs this season.

In their last run, 8 won, 3 were second, 3 finished third and 2 fourth. So, 16 posted a top 4 finish last time.

Trainers

Yet again a Paul Nicholls benefit with him providing 6 of the last 17 winners.

The other stat is harry Fry's record at the course (8-17) and, within that, of his chasers – 2/6;

CONCLUSION

Sire de Grugy has an emotional tug as he proved all the doubters wrong when winning the Champion Chase carrying our money and tipped up  to our TV and Cheltenham Multiple Bet subscirbers at the festival last year. 

However, you have to wonder why so late for a comeback? Jamie Moore reported a quite recent setback  too in his ATR interview. Were he near his best i  would have no doubts about recommending him despite the relatively small matter of age. But, he is going to have to be within at least a  stone of his very best Champion Chase winning form of last season to take this and that is a big ask  after such a long lay off and with a recent setback to overcome.

Upilison Blue  would be the second lowest rated winner of this in 18 years were he to win and Karinga Dancer (despite Harry Fry's brilliant record at this track) would be the lowest.

Uxizandre would be only the second winner in 18 runnings to finish outside the first 4 last time out.

Which leaves us with the last time out, winning, (at the distance as well as further), 7 yo, 3/1 second fav who has had 2 runs this season and who hails from the races top trainer by far in Paul Nicholls, MR MOLE.

This one has improved around 10lbs from last seasons best in just two runs this season, and, like nine other previous winners, has won over further ( 2M 5F to be precise) as well as at the distance.

I am banking on a half stone or more improvement from this inmate of the races top trainer and, combined with a pipe opening comeback, rather than a near peak one, from the reigning Champ, i am hoping these two things will combine for the trends selection to win.

However, i won't be at all upset if that genuine and classy champion strips fitter  than i thought and jumps right back to the head of the market for the champion Chase!

 

NEWBURY 3.35 BETFAIR HURDLE

Betting

Favs have won 4 of the last 16 renewals and second favs have won 3

There have been a couple of turn ups at 50/1 and 33/1 but, other than that, the maximum odds have been 16/1 once. The remaining 13 were all returned 14/1 or less.

Which ties in with the fact that 14/17 times, the winner came from the first 7 in the betting.

Weight

Fairly inconclusive in that, no horse won carrying more than 11-7 so all except the  top weight remain.

Handicap Ratings

Again, no help as they include all the runners.

Age

15 renewals have been won by 5 to 7 yos which breaks down as follows: 5 yos provided 5 winners from 92 runners (5%), 6 yos 7-96 (7%) and 7 yos  3-67 (4%).

Form Profile

13/17 winners had between 3-7 runs in the past year.

13 had run  between 1 and 4 times that season

Of which: 8 won their last run, 3 finished second and 2 came home third. So, 13 finished in the  first three in their most recent run.

8 won at 2m 1f plus.

9 were distance winners

15 had their most recent run between  8 and 90 days ago.

Trainers

In form yards are: Nicky Henderson with 9/27 winners in the last 14 days.

John Ferguson with 4/12

Jennie Candish has the beststrike rate at the course with 2/7 over the last 5 seasons.

CONCLUSION

If we look for a 5,6 or 7yo from the first seven in the betting, in this case i have looked at all forecast 14/1 or less, with a top 4 finish last time less then 90 days ago, we are left with a shortlist of 4: Activial, Jolly's Cracked It, On Tour and FASCINO RUSTICO.

I have discounted the other 3 on the basis of trainer form. Of Harry Fry's runners only 25% have run to form in the last fortnight, according to the Racing Post and just 30% for Evan Williams. Whereas the selections trainer, Harry Skelton, has got a healthy 67% running to form.

Mind you, this is an ultra competitive affair so minimum stakes.

Great Yorkshire Chase race trends

Betting

Fav won 4/14 and second fav won  twice.

At the other end, there have been winners at 25/1, 20 x 2 and 16 x 2 winners.

12 of the last 14 winners came from the first 9 in the betting.

Weight

All carried between 10-00 and 11-5

12 carried 10-6 plus  and 11 no more than 11-3

Handicap Rating

All rated between 128 and 147

13 ran off a mark of 143 or less

Age

7 yo's have the best strike rate by far with 3 wins from 15 runs (20%). 9 yo's have won more runnings, 5, but from 61 to try ( 8%)

All other ages in the race have a roughly 5% wins to runs record.

Form Profile

Although one had not run that season and another had just the one run, 10 had run between 2 and 5 times that season.

12 had a first 7 finish last run.

13 had their last run between 16 and 90 days ago.

Of the 11 to have scored , (3 had not won previously!), all had won over at least two and a half miles and, of these, 9 had won between 2m 7.5f and 3m 2.5f.

CONCLUSION

There are only two 7 yo's in this and they make up the first two in the betting who account for just under half the past 14 winners.

The bang in form, (3-9 winners in the past 14 days), big race Saturday specialist, Paul Nicholls, runs the current fav Easter Day. He has a couple of things against him from a trends perspective: only the one run this season and no win beyond 2m 6.5f. I would also add that this last season conqueror of the Royal and Sun Alliance winner, O'Faolains Boy, has shown all his best form on Soft going. He certainly has the class though if ground and trip turn out to suit.

Only beaten a length and a bit by subsequent listed winner, Sego Success, the time before last over 3m 1f, IF IN DOUBT got a confidence booster when cruising home in a 4 horse race at Catterick over 3m 1.5 on similar ground to todays. It is interesting that AP McCoy keeps the ride for this JP McManus owned horse.

He ticks all my trends boxes and is the sole selection.

 

 

Peter Marsh Chase trends

Betting

Only one fav and two second favs have won this from the last 14 runnings.

Then again, there was only the one really  big priced winner at 33/1, another at 20's and one at 16/1. The other 11 were all returned 8/1 or less.

All 14 winners came from the first 8 in the betting.

Weight

All are within the weights range but only two have carried 11-10

Handicap Rating

Again, all within the range but the top weight is trying to win off a mark only won off twice in the last 14.

Also, all were rated at least 129, with 13 rated 136 plus, which is helpful as it knocks out the bottom 6.

Age

8 yo's  have dominated, providing 5 of the 14 winners from 29 runners (17%).

7 yo's haven't won from 15 to try. However, the older horses do ok with 9, 10, 11 & 12 yo's  winning 3-37 (8%), 3-22 (14%), 1-7 (14%) and 2-10 (20%), respectively.

Form Profile

12 had run between 2  and 5 times that season.

Of the 9 to complete, three won last time, two were second and two third. So, 7 of the 9 to complete had finished in the first three last time.

12 had already won over at least 2m 6f.

Trainer/Jockey

Colin Tizzard has a 6/21 overall strike rate at Haydock with 5 of his 17 chasers winning. He runs the top weight, Hey Big Spender who will need to equal the weight carrying record over the past 14 runnings. That, and his lack of a first three run last time put me off from a trends perspective. However, only ten12 yo's have run in this over the period and two of them won.

The in form yard is Sue Smith's with 3/9 wnning in the last 14 days,  she runs two: The 9 yo, last time out eigth, Vintage Star and the very interesting 8 yo last time out winner, No Planning.

CONCLUSION

If we look for an 8yo, from the first eight in the betting that ran in the first three last time, carried less than 11-10 with a handicap mark between 137 -147, we  can reduce the field to two: No Planning and Corrin Hill.

No Planning won a 31K handicap chase here over 3m last spring, but that was on fast ground (time just over 9 secs faster than standard). The going tomorrow will be completely different and, as  well as doubts about his jumping (won over hurdles last time, presumably to protect his chase rating but made a couple of bad blunders in his big chase win here), his attempt at 3m 2f at Kelso saw him beaten 68 lengths, last of the 6 finishers.

On  trends and form, i prefer CORRIN HILL who, unlilke No Planning, has  had the typical prep of a minimum of two  runs this season and should relish this trip and going given his best effort last season was defeating subsequent easy listed class winner, Black Thunder, on ground officially Heavy (though more like Soft, going off the times), over three miles and half a furlong at Warwick. Hr got an RPR of 156 for that effort and runs off 146 tomorrow.

Unbeaten in his first three races last season, (he found the going much too fast for him in the grade 1 RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival), his first two prep runs should have put him spot on for this and i am hoping for a good run.

I have just looked at the betting and he is best priced 6/1 fav. However, i will not let that put me off and he is still backable each way at those odds.

 

Kauto Star Chase trends, stats & selection

Betting

Favs have won 8 of the last 17 runnings and second favs have won four – so the first 2 have won 12/17.

There have been no big shocks. A 14/1 and a 12/1 won but, barring them, the other 15 were all returned 6/1 or less.

15 were from the first 4 in the betting.

Ratings

Of the 9 winners with a handicap rating, 7 were rated 149+. This is a terrible trial for the Sun Allance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. I think i am right in saying that no horse has ever won this and  gone on to score in that race. The ratings don't offer any encouragement of that changing this year.

All the others are within the rating band for all winners with an OR (125+). The 8 others had less than 3 chase runs and therefore hadn't earned an official rating (an OR).

Age

5 yo's have won 3 times from 20 runners (15%), 6yo's 9/45 (20%) and 7 yo's 2/22 (9%).

So, 6 yo's are best with 5 yo's not far behind strike rate wise.

Form Profile

All had 4 – 9 runs in the last year.

14/17 had run between 2 and 7 times that season.

11 won their last race while 3 were second;

All had won over at least 2m 5f

10 had already won over 3M or further.

Trainers/Jockeys

Of the trainers with runners tomorrow, Paul Nicholls has won it twice in the past decade (both were favs).

Mick Channon has a 3/10 strike rate at Kempton and 1/1 with his chasers here. He runs Warden's Hill who is the lowest rated of the 9 rated horses on 135. He is also the 25/1 outsider of the lot and surely must improve 11 or 12 lbs to take this, even if there were no improvement from any of his opponents.

Mark Bradstock's has had just 2 runners the past 2 weeks and 1 has won. I am not sure how relevant this is given the small sample but he runs a promising sort called Coneygree who came back from a near two year absence to take a Grade 2 on his chase debut at Newbury over two and a half miles. A winner over 3 miles in a G2 hurdle at Cheltenham on Heavy you would think the trip would be no problem. He has a couple of negative stats to overcome though; his long lay off means he has had just the one run in the past year – no winner had less than 4 runs. He is also a 7 yo.

CONCLUSION

If we look for a 5 or 6 yo from the first 4 in the betting, who won last time and has the form profile above, we are left with the Nicholls pair; 11/10 fav Saphir Du Rheau  and VIRAK.

Preference is for the latter because, unlike the classy 165 rated hurdler Saphir Du Rheu, he  has the  form in the book. Lots of stats are in the favs  favour (not least the 8 wins for  favs!) but his chase form doesn't justify his price. He unseated first time at Newbury in the race won by Coneygree (going well and tracking that one at the time but that was early doors). Next time at Exeter he jumped much better against Class 2 horses and won easily, but it is difficult  to know what he beat as none have run since.

VIRAK has, by contrast won all 3 of his chase starts, graduating to a heavily eased 13 lengths G2  victory at Doncaster last time and, though the last 3 fences were omitted, i like the fact he has won in just below this grade in a chase (rather than a hurdle race) over today's 3 miles (as had 10 of the last 17).

Saphin Du Rheu may laugh at us but with both being trends horses VIRAK each way makes more appeal than his stable-mate.

 

 

Christmas Hurdle

Betting

6 winning favs and no less than 7 winning second favs from the last 17 runnings suggest the market gets it right but not always between the top two.

Third fav won twice so the first 3 in the betting have won 15/17.

The first 5 have won all.

Ratings

This looks a sub standard renewal as only 1 of the 13 previous runners with a rating has taken this off a mark lower than 160. Or, put another way, all bar one had an official rating of 160 or more – just two runners meet that criteria.

Age

5, 6 and 7 yo's have dominated with 5 wins from 25 (20%) for the 5 yo's, 6 -27 (22%) for the 6yo's and  and 3 – 12 (25%) for the 7 yo's.

Form profile

Much of a much really as far as todays runners with the only relevant factor today being that 14/17 had a first 3 finish last time.

Trainer/Jockey

Nicky Henderson has won 6 of the last 17 including the last 4 but his Sign of Victory would be the lowest rated winner for at least 17 years.

AP McCoy won on all 4 of those recent Henderson winners plus one other which makes him the top jockey in this race with 5 wins.

The in form trainers are:

Willie Mullins with 8 of his 17 runners in the last 14 days winning. Though beware as his raiders over here haven't been doing so well as his runners in Ireland. Over the same period he has had 4 runners in the UK: an 8/1 unplaced, a 5/2 second,  a 3/1 third and a 5/1 fav unplaced. I am not sayin the Mullins yard is crumbling but either his placing skills are having a bad run or this years crop of Irish horses are falling short away from home aginst the others. He saddles the 2/5 fav Faugheen who has an outstanding chance on stats.

The Nicky Henderson yard is going well too with 7/24 the past  fortnight but, as mentioned above, his  Sign of Victory doesn't look good enough. He has also had 54/154 winners at Kempton over the past 5 years.

Nick Williams is 3/8 the last 2 weeks  and 4/11 in this type of  race at the course. He runs Hint of Mint who, again lacks the proven class and finished 4th last time.

Mick Channon is 3/10 at the track and his Sgt Reckless, (who returns from a chase run), would have a very unusual profile.

CONCLUSION

Faugheen is a worthy fav but not a 2/5 shot. His Irish Champion  Hurdle form is the best on offer here but his liking for further makes me think it may be a little on the sharp side here. Strictly speaking he is the sole trends horse.

Irving was given too much to do in last years Supreme Novice and seemed taken off his feet on the fastish ground (ignore the official going – read the race time). He did well to finish 12L 3rd to impressive winner Vatour and just 6 lengths behind the second, Joshes Hill. He  fell at the last when he probably would have won first time up, but made no mistake next time when beating the potentially very smart mare (8/1 for the mares only hurdle at the2015 Festival) Aurore D'Estruval giving 7 lbs and a near two length beating. The  time was very fast that day compared to other race times on a good card and I make IRVING my each way choice  should my misgivings about the fav prove correct.

The record of second favs encourages me too.

 

KING GEORGE trends

It must be borne in mind that the trends are  somewhat skewed by the amazing 8 wins of  Paul Nicholls, five of them with the inimitable Kauto Star.

With that in mind:

Betting

9 of the last 17 were fav ( Kauto  4 times)

4  were second favs, so 13/17 were from the first two in the betting.

16 were from the first 5

Only one shock in the  last 17 runnings when Edredon Bleu won the 2003 renewal at 25/1. All the others were returned 10/1 or less.

Ratings

Of the 12 horses with a British handicap rating, (3 Irish and one French have won):

All were rated 156 plus

11 had a mark of 162 or more

10 (inc Kauto Star – KS from now on!) had a rating of 169 + including 10 of the last 11.

Age

7yo's have the best record with 7 wins from 36 runners (19%). Strangely enough 11 yo's are next best with 2 wins  from 11 runs, (18%), KS being one of them and the other Teeton Mill, the lowest rated winner for the period.

6 yo's have a decent record too with 3 wins from 19 to try (16%) 

8 yo's are only 1 out of 41 (KS third win)

Form profile

ALL had between 3 – 8 runs in the past year

ALL had 1 – 4 runs that season.

11 won last time

15 had a first 3 placing last time

14 won at or beyond the distance

3 have won this twice or more in the time under consideration and two of them  were trained by Paul Nicholls – KS amazing 5 wins  and See More Business two wins (though the latter didn't win back to back).

The other was Kicking King who won back to back in 2004/5

Trainers/Jockeys

I don't have all the up to date stats other than Nicholls'  8 wins and Ruby Walsh's 5 (all on KS).

CONCLUSION

If we start with the first five in the betting with a first 3 run last time who won at the distance (NB under rules, NOT point to points) we immediately narrow it down to three: Dynaste, Menorah and Silvianaco Conti.

None are the ideal  age and none of them have the class of KS – the only  winning 8yo. But the younger horses don't look good enough or, in the case of Champagne Fever, have unproven stamina except in a point to point.

Looking at the three, immediately Dynaste's rating of 166 catches the eye. This is lower than 10 of the last 11 winners with a UK handicap rating.

This leaves us with two 8yo's and the first and second in the Betfair Chase (the best recent trial for this) where SILVIANACO CONTI won on merit by 2 lengths from Menorah on ground much quicker  than the alleged Heavy that day. It should  ride similar at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Given Nicholls overall  record, his knack for multiple winners in this race and the fact that the horse won last time, this, with the only reservation being his age, looks the most likely winner and is my  win selection.

However, having scored 3 of his best 4 all time RPR ratings in his last four runs , MENORAH seems like he maybe improving at 9! He pulled up in this last year but was 3-3 at Kempton before that and, with the breathing problem seemingly sorted out and his stamina now proven, this trip here may be just the ticket.

I backed him  (16/1 into 10/1) in the Betfair Chase and tipped him up here,  so there is a little sentiment here. He was put in his place that day but that was over a furlong further and he only has 2 lengths to find with the winner. At 8/1 he looks the each way play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Ladbroke race trends and trainer/jockey stats

Apologies in advance but short of time to today so i will put content above style.

Betting

1 Fav  and no second favs won from the last 11 runnings.

33/1 and 25/1 twice other than that 14/1 or less.

1st 7 in betting 6/11, rest 5/11

The market is no great guide so don't be afraid to punt a longshot.

Weight

ALL 10-00 to 11-5

9/11 carried 11-2 or less

10 lugged 10-2 or more and nine hauled 10-5 plus.

Ratings

ALL ran off 123 to 143

10 off 127 plus and 10 off 142 or less.

All the last 8 were within 8lbs of the top on RPR.

Age

Dominated by 5yo's both in numbers and wins to runs ratios, winning 5 times from 55 runners (9%) – at least twice as good as  the others to win.

No horse older than 7  won

Form profile

4 + runs in the past year 10/11

2+ runs this season x 10

First 3 run – all last 7

Only one was making  seasonal debut.

Trainers:jockeys

There are  numerous stats for trainers with the in-form yards being Henderson, Lee, Gordon and Mullins.

Those with 28% plus record at the course are Fry, Ferguson, Skelton and Mullins

Symonds and Fry have 28% plus strike rates in all hurdles at Sandown while Skelton is 2/5 in handicap hurdles specifically

Fehilly is 29% riding for Fry and Geraghty 28% for Henderson.

CONCLUSION

We are looking for a 5 yo with a first 3 finish last time carrying between 10-5 and 11-2; rated between 127 – 142 and within 8lbs of the RPR top rated. Just one fits the bill, GASSIN GOLF  from the bang in form (3-8 last 14 days) Dr Newland yard.

A quick look at its form  figures suggests each way may be the way to go and 20/1 makes this a good bet. He seems to come good in these big handicaps (second in last years Imperial Cup) and it is very close between him and SHELFORD on last years  form. You could say the latter has improved since but so, in August, did the former.

If Shelford had an RPR 1 lbs higher he would have had  the perfect profile too. Not only that  but his trainer, Dan Skelton is 4 – 14 at the course and 2 -5 in handicap hurdles. He beat Aubisson (who is fancied by some good judges to take today's Grade 1 Long Walk Hudle just under an hour earlier ) on merit receiving just 1 lb last time. That was Chepstow form though which i don't always find a good guide.

So, for me, each way GASSIN GOLF @ 20/1

saver: SHELFORD @ 7/1

 

 

 

 

CHL 2.00 race trends and trainer stats

CHL 2.00 CAVIAR GOLD CUP

Betting

Fav 1 out of last 15, second fav once and third fav 6 times!

Returned 9/1 or less 12/15

Weight

None of the last 15 carried more than 11-8

Handicap ratings

133 to 163 means all bar the bottom weight are comfortably within the range.

Age

6 and 7 yo's have domlnated with the former winning 5 from 34 (15%) and the latter winning 6-50 (12%). 8yo's are about half as likely  to win with 3 from 49 wins (6%).

No horse older than 8 won in this period.

The record of 5yo's is 0-9.

Form Profile

14/15 ran between 4 to 9 times in the past year.

ALL had ran that season between 1 and 3 times – 9 had two runs.

5 won, 5 finished second and three third last time out. All posted a first 5 run on their latest start.

13 had run between 18 and 30 days ago.

12 had already won at two and a half miles plus, with three winning over 3 miles.

Trainers/Jockeys

Paul Nicholls has had 12/39 winners this past fortnight and he runs the fav, Caid Du Berlais. This  last time Paddy Power winner is not a trends horse with the age, weight and record of favs against him.

AP McCoy is 17/30 for Kim Bailey over the last two years. He rides Darna who, with just one (winning) run in the last 2 years is too lightly raced on trends.

CONCLUSION

9/1 or less, ( third fav), two runs, a 6 YO that won over two and a half miles last time, 15 days ago, is an ideal profile for this and the  trends selections is NO BUTS.

 

 

Tingle Creek Chase race trends and trainer stats

SANDOWN 3.00 THE TINGLE CREEK

We have been spoilt this last 11 years with some of the finest 2 mile chasers in history winning this. Moscow Flyer in 2003 and 2004, Kauto Star 2005 and 2006 (yes, that's right, a multiple gold Cup winner with the speed to win this twice!), Twist Magic and Master Minded won it twice each with a win each from Sizing Europe and Sprinter Sacre.

Add to the above Flagshipe Uberalles 3 consecutive wins between 1999 and 2001 and Sire de Grugy's emphatic win last season and I think only Cenkos could be classified as not one of the greats in the  past 15 runnings.

However, with the absence of Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy, today's race doesn t look like anythng special and any one of the past 15 winners would have probably won this – though you never know.  Flagship Uberalles, Kauto Star, Master Minded and Twist Magic (all Paul Nicholls trained 5 yo's) burst onto the scene in this race so it is possible something from last years novice ranks could improve.

Here are the stats but do bear in mind that the superstars mentioned above may have skewed the stats this past 15 years in regard to favs and ratings. This race looks the most open since Twist Magic's first victory in 2007.

Betting

No less than 9 favs have obliged in the last 17 runnings along with three second favs.

One 7/1 shot  won with two 6/1's. All the rest were returned 5/1 or less.

15/17 were from the first 3 in the betting.

Weight

All carried 11-7 so no winning mares (I don't know how many have tried)

Ratings

Although Direct Route won this off 147 only the one-off that is Kauto Star won this off a mark of 150 or less since, when taking the first of his two Tingle Creeks. All the rest had ratings of at least 156 (7 of the last 8 were rated 167 plus – that has been the level of class needed to win this in the near past). So, 156+ 15/17.

Age

5 yo's stand out with an impressive 4/13 or 31%. All were trained by P Nicolls.

6 and 7 yo's are  next best with 3-17 (18%) and 5-23 (22%) respectively.

Only one 10 yo, Moscow Flyer in his second victory, has won this from only 12 to try (8%)

8 and 9 yo's have won twice each from 22 and 29 attempts respectively. Strike rates of 7 and 9%.

Form profile

12 had run this season, 11 of which had one or two runs – the latter scoring 5 times from 30 to try.

Don't be put off seasonal debutants though as they have a better wins to runs ratio in that they have provided 5 of the winners from just 19 runners.

All had run between 3-6 times in the preceding year.

16 had won over further than todays 2 miles trip. Ok, 7 had won at between 2m half a furlong and 2m 1f,  but 6 had won at 2m 2f and beyond with one winning over 3 miles. So your horse needs to stay, particularly in this ground, which going off yesterdays race times, is Heavy.

14/17 were distance winners.

8  won last time, five were second and 2 pulled up. The other two finished 3rd and 4th. So, all 15 to complete had a first 4 finish with 13 coming home first or second last time.

Trainers/Jockeys

First port of call has to be the bang in form Nicholls yard with 13 of his 46 runners winning in the last fortnight. He runs Dodging Bullets, last years Arkle 4th who should come on  for his debut third, but a third place run last time out is not typical, other than that he has a good profile.

His other runner, Hinterland, looks held by his stablemate on a line through Grandouet but, oddly enough, a pulled up last time has a much better record (in fact the best of all) than a third last time, with 2 winning from just 3 to try. Also, interestingly, Noel Fehily has a 7/25 record for Nicholls over the last 2 years.

Another in form stable is Colin Tizzard's with 8-23 in the last 14 days. He runs Third Intention who has a rating of 151 and, on  what he has shown so far, doesn't look goood enough. Having said that, he does look stamina laden with an excellent second to Captain Conan here over 2m 4.5 in a G1 in Feb 2013 and having won over two and a half miles. He couldn't  have won his seasonal debut 2m, 4-runner listed race more easily, but what did he beat?  Forecast 16/1 it wouldn't surprise me if he ran a really big race. But he is not a trends horse.

Harry Fry's runners have won 5 of their 13 runs the past two weeks. He runs a possible dark horse in Vukovar. This one is the ideal age, he has won over further and that in a bog. However, his rating is below the norm and that is not surprising  as the highest grade he has won at was a class 3 Novice chase. A last run 7th is unheard of too in the last 17 renewals. In his favour, the trainer was a protege of Paul Nicholls – the only one in the period we are reviewing to train a 5 yo winner – so he may know what it takes.

Barry Geraghty has an impressive 108/392 (28%) for Nicky Henderson and he rides Oscar Whisky, a 9 yo who, if this were a hurdle race, would probably be fav. But his jumping has been such that he is 8/1. He jumped better and ran well for a long way in the Paddy Power but  will his  jumping hold up at this 2 mile chase speed?

Richard Johnson is 12/30 for Alan King this past 2 years. He rides Forecast fav, but now drifting second fav, Balder Success. He has an excellent profile and is shortlisted.

CONCLUSION

The trends  narrow it down to 2, old rivals Balder Success and God's Own.

The latter, a Grade 1 winner, has never encountered ground like todays heavy going?  He seemed to relish a stamina test  when staying on well in second last season when just over a length  behind old rival Balder Success over two and a half miles at Kempton in a Grade 2. He received 7lbs that day but has improved 10 lbs on RPR's running over shorter trips in his last 2 runs and is unbeaten this season.

BALDER SUCCESS is also a Grade 1 winner. He is 2-1 down to God's Own but has a 7 lbs pull for the 5 lengths he was beaten in the best trial for this race at Exeter last run. It looks a toss up but,  although in lower company, Balder Success is 2/5 on soft to heavy going (unseated on one of the losing runs), he likes this going, and secondly we have the jockey stat. He looks like he will relish a  slog through the mud just that bit better than his main market rival.

It could be close but he is my win selection. Anyone fancying an each way flutter could do worse than bet on substantial improvement from Third Intention.

http://www.thepunterspal.com/?p=9087&preview=true

 

Good lu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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