I have ‘borrowed’ the quote below from a recent blog by Kieran at Make Your Betting Pay. I will put the link at the bottom of this blog for the full article. It is so useful, especially the table, and uses such a scientific approach, that i have used about half the blog below.
“We need to strike the right balance between leveraging our profits and protecting the integrity of our bank.
My usual starting point when carrying out this kind of analysis would be to calculate the longest expected losing run over 1000 bets. There is a formula for calculating this (mail me if you’re interested) but I tend to use a table which makes life a lot easier. I’ve reproduced the table below (it’s accurate enough for our purposes)
The important thing to remember here is that the larger the number of bets you look at, the longer the likely losing run will be. As an example with a 15% strike rate looked at over 1000 bets you are likely to hit a maximum losing run of 43 bets. However, if you were to have 10,000 bets with a similar strike rate, at some point you are likely to hit a losing run of 57 bets. That being the case, it’s useful to have a reasonable idea of the number of bets your selection method is going to throw up over a period of time. If you are looking at a method that throws up 300 bets a year then calculating your longest likely losing run over 1000 bets is ample. If you are looking at a method that throws up 10,000 bets a year, you need to dig a bit deeper than that.
Let’s assume the method we are analysing has 1000 bets a year with a strike rate of 60%. We can see from the table that we are likely to hit 8 consecutive losers at some point during year 1.
You can see that if we were to choose a 10% staking plan on such a method, we are almost certain to hit trouble and quite possibly decimate our bank at some point.
We therefore need our bank to be several times the size of our longest likely losing run – it is well within the realms of statistical possibility that we could get 2 such runs in quick succession!
For safety, I would say it is best to work with your bank broken down into a number of points that equates to 5 times your longest likely losing sequence.”
I think 5 times the maximum losing run is on the conservative side. A lot depends on what sort of start you get. If you’re off to a flyer, by the time the inevitable ‘crippler’ comes along you should have taken out more than enough profit to set up a new bank and won’t care. If you start on the bad run your faith in the system/method/tipster etc is shaken and you would probably abandon what may be a good thing. What is often forgotten though is that with percentage staking the stakes go down during losing runs so a losing run of ten wouldn’t be ten points lost but considerably less.
I heartily agree with everything else though. There is no doubt that basing your staking on avoiding one long losing run is folly as it is more common that a series of losing runs is the bank breaker. Therefore it is wise to allow for this.
The debate will rage on but, in the end, we are back to another grossly underestimated factor in betting – psychology. Some thrive on risk others prefer the more softly softly ” I don’t need the stress as I would like to live to spend the winnings” approach. There is no “wrong” nor “right” way, (try telling the Frankie Dettori backers that day at Ascot that they were throwing their money away backing 7 horse accas!). Granted, the same people could do a £1 acca 7 every day for the rest of their lives and lose every day. But they wouldn’t be complaining as the stakes would come out of the massive interest on their winnings!
There again though, if you are backing seriously, you have to work on the basis of probability and not possibility so it is a question of finding the optimum. For those who shun risk it will be five times the max or more. For those who thrive on it, maybe twice the max and for those who are trying to strike a happy medium, 2-4 times the max.
Whatever your appetite for risk, the table above offers a basis for making an informed choice. You can’t say you weren’t warned!
Here’s the link to Kieran’s site: http://makeyourbettingpay.co.uk/ . You will find the whole blog on there dated 18/1/12.
Not a great race for the first two in the betting with just 3 of the last 16 favs winning and no second favs.
However, not a race for surprises either with just the one 40/1 shock in that time. All the rest were returned 10/1 or less.
The first 6 in the betting have won 15 of the last 16 renewals. With just 3 of these coming from the first two, 3rd to 6th fav looks the percentage call.
All carried between 8-1 and 9-5.
15 carried 8-3 plus and 14 had 8-8+ to carry.
All ran off an official rating of between 80 and 95.
15 were rated 84 or more.
3 – 7 runs this season 15/16
All had run over at least 12 furlongs
All had won over at least 10 furlongs (just 2 less than 12F)
12 had won over a mile and a half
Only one was a distance winner and none had won over further
13 posted a first 9 finish last time
12 finished in the first 7
11 in the first 5
Trainers and Jockeys
The Ed Vaughan yard is bang in form and his Adventure Seeker has the perfect trends profile.
Luca Cumani has won this race twice in the last 8 years and has had 8 winners from 28 runners here in the last 2 years. His Connecticut, however, will have to break the weight carrying and the handicap ratings record over the past 16 runnings.
Ed de Giles is 2 out of 3 at the track and he runs Kashmiri Sunset who has the opposite problem, trends-wise, to Connecticut, in that he is rated 1 lbs below the previous lowest winning rating.
If we concentrate on all those priced 10/1 or less and take out the first two in the betting, this leaves us with just two, who both have perfect profiles, Rocket Ship and ADVENTURE SEEKER. Preference is for the latter who hails from the bang in form yard of Ed Vaughan, although it is close as the former won last time – as did 4 of the last 16.
NEWBURY 2.05 – WASHINGTON SINGER STAKES
Great race for the fav with 9 of the last 17 winning. Four second favs won so 13/17 were from the first two in the betting.
16 were from the first 3
One won at 10/1 but all the other 16 were returned 6/1 or less.
Weight and Ratings offer no help here.
Trainer and Jockey Stats
Mark Johnston has had 4 runners in this race over the last 10 runnings and 3 have won! He saddles Diaz who trends-wise has to overcome the handicap of having 4 runs and finishing outside the first 3 last time.
14 had between 1 and 3 runs
Only one had run more than 3 times.
10 had just one run.
9 won last time, 4 were second and two were third.
None finished out of the first 3 last time.
The clear fav now is HAWKESBURY who also has the advantage of 3 or less runs and a win last time which akes him the clear trends pick.
NEWBURY 2.40 – THE GEOFFREY FREER STAKES
Another cracking race for the fav with 8 winning in the last 17 runnings. 3 second favs won.
All were from the first 6 in the betting, 15 were from the first 4, and 13 from the first 3.
Of the 16 winners to have an Official Rating (OR) all were rated 105 plus and 13 rated 112+
4 and 5 yo's have dominated this with 6 wins each. However, this doesn't tell the whole story as:
The 5 yo's wins came from just 22 runs (27%) compared to 46 (13%) runs for the 4 yo's.
3 yo's are 3-16 or 19% and the 6 and 7 yo's have a win each from 9 and 8 runs respectively (12%)
8 won last time and 15 posted a first four placing.
All except one ran in the last 60 days.
Trainers and Jockeys
John Gosden's runners have scored 13-37 times in the last 14 days and he has Camborne in this who doesnt have a typical profile age-wise or a first 4 finish last time.
James Fanshawe has a 3-6 strike rate with his group runners at this track and runs the classy Seal of Approval, another who finished out of the first 4 places last time.
Looking at the 5 horses currently in the first 4 in the betting:
Both Red Cadeaux and Seal of Approval lack a first 4 last time run.
Willing Foe hasn't run for 455 days.
This leaves us with two, Somewhat and the current joint 5/1 joint fav and last time out winner PETHERS MOON. Richard Hughes was very bullish about this one on the Morning Line and, despite not being the ideal age, is the trends selection.
Giraolama is the ideal age and anyone looking for an each way alternative (around 12/1 at present) might condier this interesting German trained horse whose trainer has a good record when bringing them over here.
RIPON 3.30 – GREAT SAINT WILFRID HANDICAP
Favs won 3 of the last 17 and 1 second fav.
However, no great shocks with all bar a 20/1 shot returning at 16/1 or less and 13 returned at 12/1 or less.
None carried more than 9-8
15/17 carried 9-6 or less
All were rated 101 or less with 16 rated 99 or less.
4 yo's have won 8 of the last 17 renewals from 92 runners (9%). This strike rate is nearly double the next best, 6 and 7 yo's with a 5% strike rate.
Not a great race for 3 yo's, although they have 1 win from just 30 to try. Nor for 5 yo's with 3-89 (3%).
5 won last time out and 12 posted a first 4 finish. All bar two posted a first 7 finish last time.
5 of the last 6 winners were Course and Distance winners.
Trainers and Jockeys Stats
David O'Meara has won this with 2 of his 4 runners and provided the winner in 2 of the last 3 runnings. So his two runners, Bondesire (tipped by the North in the Racing Post) and Out Do must be respected. The former is a 4 yo C/D winner and the only thing against it is that it is just outside the 12/1 band at present – which could change. Out Do, at 5 is, not the ideal age and hasn't got a C/D win, but Daniel Tudhope has a 6-19 strike rate for the trainer. Both were on the shortlist but the former is out of the odds range at the time of writing and the latter's age and lack of C/D win go against him.
Rachel Richardson is 2/7 for Tim Easterby but this 6yo with no first 4 run last time would be an unusual 20/1 winner.
Spinatrix has 3 C/D wins from 9 runs here but woud have to win off 1lb higher rating than any other winner in the last 17 years.
Richard Whittaker has a 3-6 strike rate with his all age handicappers here.
Looking for a 4yo priced 12/1 or less , with a first 4 place last time and preferably a C/D winner, leaves us with just one (unless Bondesire is backed) and that one is PIPERS NOTE – especially given his trainers record in these kind of races here.
The fav has won 5 of the last 17 and the second fav the same – so 10/17 from the first two in the betting won.
The first 3 in the betting have won 14.
Other than a 25/1 surprise, no horse was returned higher than 10/1 and all the others had SPs of 13/2 minus
All 15 who had a rating had an OR of at least 98 and 13 were rated 107 plus.
4 yo's are best with 7 wins from 45 runs (16%). 3 yo's are 5-55 (11%) and 5 yo's are 3-34 (9%) with 6 and 7 yos have a win each from 14 and 5 runs respectively.
Only 2 won last time and 2 were second.
All bar one finished in the first 7 in their last run.
9 of the last 10 had won a race that season.
Trainers and Jockeys
The Gosden yard continues in great form with 13-37 in the last 14 days. He runs what is surely the best horse in the race, Gregorian.However from a trends viewpoint, this one ran just 6 days ago and, more troubling, has a zero for his last run.
Gregorian won this well enough last year and looks to be the class horse but his last run (though eased when beaten in France last Sunday) is a trends negative, as is Producer's lack of a win this season.
This leaves us with two, Chil The Kite and BRETON ROCK with the latter getting the nod on account of his 4 yo age group having a near double wins to runs ratio than the 5yo's.
GOO 2.05 – HERITAGE HANDICAP
Fav has won 4 of the last 15 but the second fav just one. So it looks like the market gets it right between the first two in this.
There have been winners at 28/1, 22/1, 18/1 and 16/1 but 11 of the past 15 were from the first 6 in the betting. The rest were returned at 12/1 or less. NB those four longest priced winners were the last 4.
All carried between 8-6 and 9-11, which knocks out the bottom 2.
The last 11 carried 8-13 plus which knocks the bottom 6 out.
The last 10 were rated 82 plus by the official handicapper (OR).
5 and 6 yo's have won 6 between them and have a 5% winners to runners ratio.
3 yo's are 0-21 in this and 4 yo's just 2-97.
However, although there haven't been that many of them, the older horses have done well with 3-41 (7%) 7yo's winning, 2-20 8 yo's (10%) and even 1-12 (8%)
Not a race for lightly raced types. 15/17 had at least 8 runs in the past year.
16 were distance winners.
15 had won over further – up to a mile which suggests speed alone isn't enough here.
15 posted a top 9 finishing position last time out.
Peter Hedger has an 8-23 strike rate at Goodwood. He saddles the 7 yo Slip Sliding Away who has a lot going for him but no single figure finish last time.
Brian Gubby is 2-7 at the track and he has the 5 yo Kinglami, who is worth a further look.
Given the recent record of longer priced horses i am going to ignore the fine overall record of the first 6 in the betting, which is dominated today by usually ill starred 4 yo's.
Instead i have looked at the older horses, 5 yo plus, with the above form profile.
All have chances but the only one has shown the stamina required for this by winning over further than todays 6F and that is the above mentioned 5yo, KINGLAMI – 25/1 best price as i write.
I realise he is just below the recent weights and ratings trends but i think this win over further is more important. We shall see!
GOO 3.15 – THE NASSAU STAKES
The fav has won 9 of the last 17 runnings and the second fav 4-17.
16 were from the first 3 in the betting and only one returned greater than 11/2.
Of the 13 horses to have a UK or Irish rating just 3 were rated 103 – 107. All the rest were rated at least 110.
3 yo's have dominated this with 12 wins and a 16% strike rate compared to the 4yo's with 3-49 (6%).
13 had already ran at the trip with 10 running over further – 8 of which had won up to a mile and a half.
7 won last time, 4 were second. All bar one finished in the top 5 last time.
With the exception of last years 20/1 shock, all had an Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 111 in the last 10 years.
9 of the last 10 were rated within 9 lbs of the RPR top.
Except for the fact they are both 4yo's, this looks like a two horse race (famous last words!).
Two of the three 3 yo's lack a last time out first 5 placing and the one that won has an OR of just 99 and an adjusted RPR of 110 – which is less than last years shock winner.
On the face of it, the best form is that of VENUS DE MILO WITH her good near 3L second to Thistle Bird in a Group 1 over the trip at the Curragh last time. However, either Thistle Bird improved or that wasn't the strongest of Group 1's.
I am going to take a chance on the second fav here who is rated joint top on RPR and who brings some useful Group 1 form of her own when beaten less that 2 lengths in the 190K Grand Prix de St Cloud, a race where Noble Mission was beaten a head.
That looks better form to me. She also has the bonus of a win over further (as does the fav).
All her form has been on Softish ging but, firstly, French Good to Soft is our Good and, secondly, the time for that last race of hers indicated Good to Firm.
Her very shrewd trainer wouldn't be running her if he thought she wouldn't like the going and i think they may well try to make use of her stamina by making all.
NARNYN is 4/1 jt second fav at present with Stoute's horse being backed!
GOO 3.50 – STEWARDS CUP
Fav won 4 of the last 17 and 2F won 3.
One from the first 6 in the betting has won 14 times! Amazing in a competitive handicap like this.
Horses priced 40's, 33's & 20's have taken this but the rest were returned 14/1 or less.
No clues here. All are in the weights band.
All are in the ratings band but 16 were rated 104 or less which lops off the top 4.
All except 1 of the last 10 was rated within 5 lbs of the top on RPR.
4 and 5 yo's have won a whopping 13 renewals between them, (7 and 6 respectively) with a 5% strike rate. 6 y'os are next best with 3 wins from 86 runs (3%).
3 yo's have won just 1-48 in this period and no horse older than 6 has won.
Tim Pitt's yard is in fine form with 2-4 winners in the last 14 days.
At least 4 runs in the last year
All were distance winners
Max 60 days since a run
5 won last time and 4 were second.
15/17 posted a top 9 finish last time.
The stats narrow it down to 2 , DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW and MUTHMIR, who are my 2 against the field.
For those who like to back just ne, i would just favour DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW who has had the required 4 plus runs in the past year compared to the other's 3.
ASC 3.50 – THE KING GEORGE
8 favs have won from the last 17 runnings, as have 3 second favs.
One 16/1 shot has won in that time but the other 16 all had SP's of 13/2 or less.
All 17 were from the first 6 in the betting.
John Gosden won this with Nathaniel in 2011 and that had an official rating (OR) of 115. That, however, is the only horse to have won this off a lower mark than 119 in the past 17 runnings.
8 of the last 10 winners had an RPR of 133 plus.
9 of the last 10 were rated within 4 lbs of the top on RPR
4 yo's have dominated this race with 11 winners from 69 runners (16%), including 9 of the last 10.
Then again 3 yo's have been no slouches either with 3 winners from just 26 runners (12%).
5 yo's are next best with 2-33 (6%) and a single 6 yo has won from 12 to try (8%)
10 were distance winners ( 8 in the past 10 years).
Only 2 had won over a longer trip.
All had a maxium of 6 runs in the last year – 15 just 5 times or less.that year.
All bar one had finished in the first 3 last time – 11 won.
3 winners from the Prince of Wales Stakes have tried and 2 have won this in the last 10 years.
2 Hardwicke Stakes winners have won from 7 to try in the last decade.
Only 2 fillies have won this since 1983 and one of those was the great Danedream.
Only one Oaks winner has won in the same year as her Oaks win.
Do bear in mind though that not many fillies try. They have to be very well thought of to be entered for this. Only 4 have tried in the last 10 years and 1 won. Then again some really top class fillies have been beaten in this!
The O'Brien yard is bang in form with 14/50 winners in the past 14 days. They run Magician who has an excellent trends profile for this.
John Gosden has a 5/17 strike rate in Listed/Group races at Ascot and he runs the bottom 3 who are all rated below the 119 every other winner was rated. The exception was Nathaniel (trained by Gosden).
On the RPR ratings though, none them are rated 133 plus and none within 4 lbs of the top on RPR.
Shocks in this are rare in this and the trends tell us to look at or near the top of the market – those priced 13/2 or less.
Given the record of favs (8/17) it may be wise to start there.
As I write, Telescope is just shading favouritism. This horse seems to have everything in his favour: head of the market, top on RPR and the only horse with an RPR of 133 pus in the race. A 4yo with 5 races this last year who won the second best trial for this, the group 2 Hardwicke Stakes, in his last race, in a very fast time and by 7 lengths.The only possible trends doubt could be that he hasn't won a Group 1 yet – but neither had the 2 other Hardwicke winners to take this in the last decade.
His rival for favouritism is the impressive, unbeaten Oaks winner Taghrooda. Against her are the ratings stats discussed above. However, Gosden has done it before with the colt, Nathaniel, who was 11bs off the top on RPR and had an OR of just 115. There are more doubts about this filly than there are about the fav though. What's more the clock speaks in favour of Telescope with him winning the Hardwicke in a time 1.45 faster than standard and Taghrooda winning the Oaks in a time 0.19 secs slower than standard. Granted the former was on official going of Good to Firm and the latter on Good. But who believes official goings these days? I prefer to go off the actual time not the guesstimates of the official going.
Breeders Cup dual Group 1 winner Magician will love the fast ground and, as a 4yo currently trading around 5/1, has a near perfect profile for this. However with the record of last time out winners in this i would have preferred to see a 1 rather than a 2 on the right hand side of his form figures. Having said that, that race was the Prince of Wales stakes at Royal Ascot, a race that has been a really good trial for this and where the first 3 home broke the track record. It is the winners of that race though that tend to win this.
Magician is the only horse in the race rated within 4 bs of the top on RPR and has a lot going for him.
John Gosden has thrown another spanner in the works by supplementing (as he did with Nathaniel) the lightly raced and highly talented Group 2 winning colt, Eagle Top. He is reluctantly discarded on the same ratings basis as his stable mates but his form is outstanding having beaten subsequent Group 1 Belmont Stakes (2nd, by just a head), Adelaide, 3 and a bit lengths in a time around half a second slower than Telescope's on the following day at Royal Ascot. This horse will surely improve and could be anything.
Frankie Dettori referred to this as a classic renewal on the Morning Line earlier today. With only one horse having an RPR of 133 or more, something 8 of the last 10 had, that sounds like hype to me. However, that doesn't mean this won't be an interesting race with the improving 3 yo's taking on the proven group performers.
As a trends blog the percentage call is to go for the horse with the perfect trends profile, TELESCOPE.
However, i wouldn't be putting the house on it and it would not surprise me at all if one of Gosden's improving 3 yo's took the spoils. My pick of those three would be Eagle Rock who could be the each way play.
6 of the last 17 favs won and 6 second favs.
14 were from the first 4 in the betting. All the last 10 were from the first 3.
A 33/1 shot and two 12/1's have won but the rest were sent off at 9/2 or less – including the last 10.
Of the 6 with a rating, all were rated 101 plus.
All the last 10 were rated 126+ by RPR.
All the last 10 were rated within 4lbs of the top on RPR (6 were top rated).
None of the last 17 winners had run beyond todays trip.
15-17 had run between 2 and 6 times in the past year.
16 posted a top 4 finish last time with 8 winning (7 in the last 10 years).
9 of the last 10 posted a first two finish last time.
The Irish 1000 Guineas, (Marvellous), has been a poor trial for this with the last winner coming from that race in 1979.
Similar with The Ribblesdale Stakes winners where 7 have tried and all have failed in this in the past 10 years. In fact 11 have tried and none won since 1994.
The Epsom Oaks has been a good trial with 17 of the last 30 to try winning. However, don't look too far down the field as it was 1997 the last time any horse finishing worst than third in that race won this.
The first thing to strike me is that one stat will have to give today. A horse rated more than 4 lbs off the top RPR and rated less than 126 adjusted will win, or an Irish Guineas winner will win.
Form figures wise, a first two finish from the first 3 or 4 in the market (9 of the last 10 years) narrows it down to two: Bracelet and Tarfasha.The former has the plus of being a last time winner but the minus of winning the Ribblesdale. The latter has the plus of being from the Oaks and running second last time (Volume just missed second place by just a nose in that race and could be the best each way play at 4/1 as English based trainers have won 4 of the last 5 – it is 2008 since an irish based trainer won).
However, this is a trends blog and the trends say a first two finish last time. Therefore TARFASHA is the selection but i think Volume, from the bang in form Luca cumani stable, will go close and is the best each way.
ASCOT 2.30 THE SUMMER MILE
Favs have won 3 of the last 17 runnings with, interestingly, 7 second favs winning – which is way above par.
16 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and there has only been one shock – a 33/1 winner, all the others were returned 11/1 or less.
All carried at least 9-1 and 5 have carried 9-5 plus.
15 had an official rating and, of these, 13 were rated 107 plus while the last 8 with a rating were rated 110 +
4 yo's have won 7 renewals from 57 runners for a 12% strike rate.
3 yo's (2/12 or 17%) and 6yo's (4/21 or 19%) have the best strike rates but from lower samples. However all between 3 and 7 have at least a 9% wins to runs ratio.
No horse above 7 has won this over the period
16 had between 1 and 8 runs in the last year with 14 having a maximumm of 6 runs.
Only 10 were distance winners but ALL had had a run over a mile plus.
15/17 posted a first 5 run last time out.
Trainers and jockeys
It looks ike Tullius, Baltic Knight and Graphic are non runners so i will ignore any stats for these.
Adam Kirby has a 7/17 strike rate for Charle Appleby who runs Long John. However, this horse finished 6th last time.
Fergus Sweeney is 2/4 for Seamus Durack who runs The Rectifier – a 20/1 shot with an atypical profile for this.
If we begin with the first 5 in the betting, we can discard Mull of Killough right away on the age stats (an 8yo). Long John can also go to as he doesn't meet the first 5 place last time out. This leaves us with 3: Guest of Honour, Highland Knight and Producer.
Highland Knight has had 9 runs in the past year therefore just 2 fit the profile to win this. I am going to opt for Marco Botti's second fav, GUEST OF HONOUR, who, even allowing for the 3 non runners, is now 7/2 from 6/1 first show and when the oney is down for this yard it is well worth a second look!
ASC 2.05 THE SPRINT STAKES
The first 4 in the betting have won 16 of the last 17 so best to start there.
3,4 and 6 yo's have the best record with 5 yo's just 1-36, which raises question marks against Stepper Point, and no horse older than 6 won, which rules out Kingsgate Native.
None ran more than 60 days ago.
Only 3 horses drawn higher than 4 have won which narrows it down to a horse that was unlucky for us a few weeks ago when it would have won but for badly missing the break – STEPS. Even if it misses the break today the Sandown hill should give it every chance of getting up late.
HAY 2.55 LANCASHIRE OAKS
13 of the last 17 and 8 of the last 10 were from the first 3 in the betting so we will start there.
8 of the last 17 won (from just 34 runners) won last time compared to just 4 who finished 4th or worse.
John Gosden has won this 3 times from 10 runners in the last 10 years.
The clear trends selection is the unbeaten and lightly raced SULTANINA.
HAY 3.30 THE OLD NEWTON CUP
Other than a 40/1 shock, no horse was returned at 16/1 or greater and 15 of the last 17 runnings were won by one from the first 8 in the betting.
With only 2 favs and 2 second favs winning in that time i will strike those out too.
There are distinct weight and ratings trends too with 16 carrying 9-3 or less and 15/17 rated 97 or less.
4 yo's have won 12 (11% of runners) with a wins to runs twice as good as the rest.
This narrows it down to 3: Salutation, Mighty Yar and Dashing Star.
The latter are both too high in the weights and ratings which leaves us with THE MIGHTY YAR.
However, the record of those with a first two finish last time is 8 wins out of 86 runners which makes me think Salutation may well be a big danger. Mighty Yar finished 7th last time and this finisihing position has a 2-10 strike rate.
SAN 3.50 THE CORAL ECLIPSE STAKES
All bar one came from the first 5 in the betting 14 of the remaining 16 came from the first 3. The fav has won 6 while the second fav won 4.
This narrows it down already to The Fugue Night of Thunder and Kingston Hill.
5 yo's have won 6 from 29 runners (21%) compared to 3 and 4 yo's 11-94 (12%). No horse older than 5 won.
The clincher here is class, which in my book, trumps all:
ALL the last 8 winners with a rating had an OR of 122 plus.
ALL had an RPR of 126 plus (not god news for War Command fans)
9 of the last 10 were rated within 5 lbs of the RPR top rated.
THE FUGUE is 7 lbs clear on RPR and 5 lbs clear on the official rating (OR) for a reason – she beat perhaps the most impressive winner of one of the classiest Arc de Triumphe (Treve) last time. Ok, Treve was injured and ran 10 lbs below her RPR best in the Arc (won by an amazing 5 lengths!). But Magician, according to RPR, ran his best ever race yet could only just get within 2 lengths of the selection. And let's not forget Magician is no mug, he won the Irish 2000 Guineas and the Breeders cup Turf.
These are some trends followers who will point out that a filly hasn't won this since Kooyonga in 1992. But, firstly this mare is better than Kooyonga and secondly not many fillies have tried – just 5 in the past 10 years.
NEWCASTLE 3.50 – THE NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE
Not too good for the head of the market with just 3 of the last 17 favs winning and no second favs.
Two 33/1 shots have won along with one returned at 25/1 and another at 16/1.
However 13 of the 17 were returned from the first 8 in the betting so, although not a race for the head of the market, nor is it a race for big priced shocks.
Just one horse has carried more than 9-5.
15/17 carried 9-3 or less.
14/17 carried 8-11 or less, though it must be noted that the recent trend has been for those higher in the weight with the last two winners carrying 9-3 and 9-10 – these are two of the three highest weights carried in the last 17 runnings.
None of the last 17 won off a mark higher than 104 – which doesn't augur well for the top weight.
Again, as with the weights, the very recent trend has favoured those higher in the handicap with the last two winning off 101 and 102 – two of just four horses to win off a three figure rating these past 17 years.
12/17 were rated 93 or less which makes it statistically a 70% chance that the winner will come from race card number 15 and lower.
9 of the last 10 winners were rated within 6 lbs of RPR's top rated.
3yo's are 2-6 but there are none in todays race.
4yo's have won 6 of the last 17 renewals from 127 runners, a respectable 5%. However, they don't seem to offer much value as they show a 31.5 pts loss if you backed them all
Worse still are 5 yo's who haven't had a single winner in the last 17 years from 66 runners.
7 yo's are 1-35 (3%) but show a 20 pt loss.
The two best ages are 6 yo's with 6 winners from 59 (10%) and a 9.5 pts level stakes profit and 8 yo's who are 2-10 with a 20 pts LS Profit.
All had at least 2 runs in the last year and 16 has at least 3 runs. None ran more than 15 times.
11-17 were distance winners.
All ran between 8 and 60 days ago.
12 posted a first 3 finish last time, 14 were in the top 5 and 16 finished in the first 8.
There has been a definite advantage for those drawn in a single figure stall with them having statistically almost double the chance than those drawn 10 or higher. 11 have won from stall 9 or lower with 6 winning from a double figure draw from an almost identical number of runners.
Trainers and Jockeys stats
Peter Chapple -Hyam has a 2-4 strike rate at the course in the shape of Boite whose chance on the trends is diminished greatly by his 352 days lay off.
Donald McCain has won this race twice from just 4 runners in the last 10 years. His record is 2-5 overall at the course as his his record here in handicaps. He runs Mawaqeet who has the stats disadvantages of being a 5yo with no first 8 run last time.
John Quinn is 2-4 in handicaps here but his Agreeent is another who lacks a first 8 finish last time.
I am going to take the first 8 in the betting.
Exclude the 5 and 7yo's.
I am not sure whether the last two winners are flukes or the beginning of a new trend so i am not going to attach too much importance to weight and ratings.
I want a horse with a first 8 finish last time – preferably first three – that ran between 8 and 60 days ago.
Also a single figure draw is important.
This leaves me with a shortlist of 3: ORIENTAL FOX, NEARLY CAUGHT and DARK CRUSADER
Given the record of 6 yo's, the first named is of interest. Ran a blinder last time when only 9 lengths sixth in the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup won by Leading Light. As you will notice he carries 9-10 and will need to beat the handicap mark record by one to win today.
However, given the most recent stats this doesn't put me off too much. Another stat against though is that only 2 of the last 10 winners won over further than 2 miles and his sole recent win was over 2 m 2f in last seasons Cesarewich trial. In summary though, this horse has 9-10 because it has class and this represents a sizeable drop in class that must give him a good chance. the record of 6 yo's only gives further encouragement.
Nearly Caught has run just twice over this sort of trip over whhich he got by far his two best RPR ratings. Went down by just 2 lengths over the trip last time to Noble Silk in what the clock says was a slowly run race. This classier faster run race may suit better but he will need to iprove – as he may well with this being only his 8th run.
Tony Martin sends over Dark Crusader who has been running over lesser distances and is now just 5 lbs higher than when he only needed to be ridden out to win the £47K Melrose Cup at York last August on going officially described as Soft (though the time was just a couple of seconds below standard indicating Firm). He is not proven at this trip though.
My first choice is for the class horse ORIENTAL FOX
However this is such a tricky race i want another on my side. Nearly Caught will like the trip but does he have the class? His last time out second was in a £16K handicap.
DARK CRUSADER has the class but will he get the trip? Anyone who watched his York win last season couldn't help but be impressed by the manner of victory in such a competitive event. Martin is canny and wouldn't have sent the horse over unless he was very confident of the longer distance being no problem so i will make the one my other choice.
18TH JUNE 2014
ASCOT 5.00 ROYAL HUNT CUP
The fav has win just 1 from the past 17 runnings, though the second fav has done ok with 3 wins.
There have been winners at 33/1, 28/1 twice, 25/1 twice and 20/1. So don't be afraid to back a big priced one, just not too big!
On the other side of the coin, the first 11 in the betting have won 15 times and the first 9 won 14 of the last 17 renewals. So, if you use that as your starting point, you can immediately discard around two thirds of the field.
All carried 9-5 or less and 15/17 carried 9-3 or less.
None ran off a mark higher than 105
16/17 ran off 102 or less.
9 of the last 10 were rated within 7 lbs of the RPR
Only 4, 5 and 6 yo's have won this in the last 17 races. 5 yo's have by far the best record with 7-123 (6%). 4 yo's, numerically, are next best with 8 winners but that was from from 233 runners (3%). Percentage wise 6 yo's have an identical record to the 4 yo's with 2 of 73 runners winning (3%).
Trainers and jockeys
George Baker has had just 2 runners in this race and 1 won. He runs last years winner Belgian Bill. No horse has won this more than once in the period we are looking at but, other than that negative, this horse has a lot going for him trends wise.
Tom Tate is 1-3 in this race but his charge, Prince of Johanne, is an 8 yo and that age has a 0-18 record.
Joe Doyle has a 2-7 strike rate for John Ryan and he rides top weight (10-1) Ocean Tempest.
George Baker has an identical record for Hughie Morrison but, again, Chil The Kite will have to break the recent weight carrying record if he is to carry 9-9 to victory.
First 4 finish last time 11/17 and first 12 finished in the first 7 last time.
All the last 10 were distance winners.
All the last 10 had between 1 and 3 runs
If we look at 5 yo's, from the first 11 in the betting, carrying 9-3 or less, rated 102 or less and rated within 7 lbs of RPR top rated who are distance winners with between 1 and 3 runs this season and a first 7 (preferably 4) run last time, we are left with just one – NICEOFYOUTOTELLME.
However, 6 yo's are no back number in this and, because of George Baker's record in this race and the fact his horse qualifies on all other filters, i can't resist splitting my stake by including last years winner, BELGIAN BILL.
Over the past 17 years, as you might expect in a handicap as competitive as this, there have been a couple of shock winners (50's and 33's) and a couple of biggish priced winners at 20/1 and 16/1. Overall though this is not by any means a lottery as 13 of the last 17 winners were returned 14/1 or less.
Favs have won 4, second favs just 1, (so the market usually gets it right between the top two). Third favs have won 4 too, giving the first 3 in the betting a 50% strike rate.
The first 10 in the betting have won 15, the first 9 – 14, first 8 – 13, first 7 – won 12.
Pretty inconclusive though no horse has carried more than 9-10, which is a shame as the only horse excluded by this stat is Steps, who was my initial fancy.
15/17 carried at least 8-7, which takes out just the bottom two.
Again, inconclusive as all qualify – even top weight Steps comes back into the picture
All the last 9 winners were rated within 6 lbs of RPR – again though, all qualify!
6 & 8 yo's have the best strike rate with 6-55 (11%) and 2-20 (10%) respectively. The former looks more reliable from a bigger sample.
4 yo's have won 5 times from 73 runners (7%).
The rest, up to and including 9 yo's, are much of a much around 7 or 8% but from relatively few runs. The one exception is 5 yo's who have by far the worst record with just 1 winner from 47 runs.
All bar one were distance winners but 12 had won beyond 5 furlongs too.
15 ran in the last 60 days.
Notably, no last time winner in the last 17 runnings, from 30 to try , had won its last race!
12 posted a single figure finish last time out.
Trainers and jockeys
Stuart Williams has had 7 runners in this and won with 2 of them. He saddles Eton Rifles who has good credentials. I wouldn't let the age put me off either as 9 yo's are 1-12 in this.
Robert Cowell has had 5 winners from 15 runners in the past fortnight and runs the 5yo Free Zone.
Last Saturday's hero,David O'Meara, is 15/54 in the last 14 days and saddles the 4yo joint fav, Smoothtalkinrascal, who has a big chance on the stats.
Clive Cox has a 4/13 strike rate at the track and saddles Seeking Magic – another trends chance.
Scott Dixon is 4/12 at the course and his all age handicappers have scored 4/11, but Even Stevens has three duck eggs to overcome.
Oisin Murphy has an 11/40 strike rate for Andrew Balding and rides New Fforest. He has a 245 day absence to overcome.
This is an utra competitive handicap and i am loathe to oppose the top two. However, Steps will have to break the weight carrying record over the last 17 years while Eton Rifles is not the ideal age (though i wouldn't want to put you off as the 1-12 strike rate for 9yo's is no forlorn hope).
However, this is a trends preview above all else and we have to be true to these.
We are looking, ideally, for a 4, 6 or 8 yo from the first 10 in the betting that posted a single figure finish last time (but not a win) within the past 60 days. A win at the distance is obligatory and one or more over further would give further confidence.
Using the above criteria I have narrowed it down to two, SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL & BARNET FAIR. The latter is currently 20/1 and so would be joint the third longest priced winners in the period covered.
The former has a bang in form trainer and is from the right part of the market (don't forget the first three in the betting won 50%). So, my selections are:
SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL to win.
BARNET FAIR each way.