Strike rate and losing runs, a cut out and keep table

I have ‘borrowed’ the  quote below from a recent blog by Kieran at Make Your Betting Pay. I will put the link at the bottom of this blog for the full article. It is so useful, especially the table, and uses such a scientific approach, that i have used about half the blog below.

Keiran says:

“We need to strike the right balance between leveraging our profits and protecting the integrity of our bank.

My usual starting point when carrying out this kind of analysis would be to calculate the longest expected losing run over 1000 bets. There is a formula for calculating this (mail me if you’re interested) but I tend to use a table which makes life a lot easier. I’ve reproduced the table below (it’s accurate enough for our purposes)

The important thing to remember here is that the larger the number of bets you look at, the longer the likely losing run will be. As an example with a 15% strike rate looked at over 1000 bets you are likely to hit a maximum losing run of 43 bets. However, if you were to have 10,000 bets with a similar strike rate, at some point you are likely to hit a losing run of 57 bets. That being the case, it’s useful to have a reasonable idea of the number of bets your selection method is going to throw up over a period of time. If you are looking at a method that throws up 300 bets a year then calculating your longest likely losing run over 1000 bets is ample. If you are looking at a method that throws up 10,000 bets a year, you need to dig a bit deeper than that.

Let’s assume the method we are analysing has 1000 bets a year with a strike rate of 60%. We can see from the table that we are likely to hit 8 consecutive losers at some point during year 1.

You can see that if we were to choose a 10% staking plan on such a method, we are almost certain to hit trouble and quite possibly decimate our bank at some point.

We therefore need our bank to be several times the size of our longest likely losing run – it is well within the realms of statistical possibility that we could get 2 such runs in quick succession!

For safety, I would say it is best to work with your bank broken down into a number of points that equates to 5 times your longest likely losing sequence.”

 

I think 5  times the maximum losing run is on the conservative side. A lot depends on what sort of start you get. If you’re off to a flyer, by the time the inevitable ‘crippler’ comes along you should have taken out more than enough profit  to set up a new bank  and won’t care. If you start on the bad run your faith in the system/method/tipster etc is shaken and you would probably abandon what may be a good thing. What is often forgotten though is that with percentage staking the stakes go down during losing runs so a losing run of ten wouldn’t be ten points lost but considerably less.

I heartily agree with everything else though. There is no doubt that basing your staking on avoiding one long  losing run is folly as it is more common that a series of losing  runs is the bank breaker. Therefore it is wise to allow for this.

The debate will rage on but, in the end, we are back to another grossly underestimated factor in betting – psychology. Some thrive on risk others prefer the more softly softly ” I don’t need the stress as  I would like to live to spend the winnings” approach. There is no “wrong” nor “right” way, (try telling the Frankie Dettori backers that day at Ascot that they were throwing their money away backing 7 horse accas!). Granted, the same people could do a £1 acca 7  every day  for the rest  of their lives and lose every day. But  they wouldn’t be complaining as the stakes would come out of the massive interest on their winnings!

There again though, if you are backing seriously, you have to work on the basis of probability and not possibility so it is a question of finding the optimum. For those who shun risk it will be five times the max or more. For those who thrive on it, maybe twice the max and for those who are trying to strike a happy medium, 2-4 times the max.
Whatever your appetite for risk, the  table above offers a  basis for making an informed choice. You can’t say you weren’t warned!

Here’s the link to Kieran’s site: http://makeyourbettingpay.co.uk/  . You will find the whole blog on there dated 18/1/12.

Betfair Chase race trends and trainer/jockey stats

The trends are a little skewed by the fact that this race was won by the great Kauto Star 4 times. It should have been 5 as he was unlucky and almost certainly would have won had he not  unseated Ruby Walsh at the last when 33/1 shock Snoopy Loopy took this in 2008.

There have only been 9 runnings so this won't be the most reliable of trends races. However, lets have a look and see how much the trends help.

Betting

Fav won 4 of the 9 runnings – Kauto Star accounted for 3 of the 4. therefore only 1 of the other 5 favs won.

The second fav won just once.

Other than the 33/1 surprise a 9/1 and 8/1 have taken this.

7-9 were from the first 3 in the betting.

Handicap Ratings

All except the 33/1 shock were rated 162 plus.

Age

As you would expect, Kauto Star skews these stats too having won at 6, 7, 9 & 11.

Of the ages represented today, 7 and 9 yo's (one each for Kauto) have the best record with 2  wins each from 14 and 15 runners respectively. 8 yo' are 1-19

Form Profile

4 plus runs in the past year

Only 2 were making their seasonal debut from 25 to try, whereas 5 of the 24 had just the one run between 16 and 30 days ago.

7 had won over further and 6 had won over 3m 2.5F Kauto Star accounted for two of these)

Only 3 were distance winners and  all of these were multiple 3 mile winners.

7 had won over 3 miles or further.

3 won last time, 2 were second and 1 third. The other two unseated rider and pulled up.  All those that completed last time finished in the first 3.

Trainers/Jockeys

The Nicholls steamroller continues, taking 16 winners from 56 runners the past fortnight. His Silviano Conti is fav but an 8 yo that finished outside the first three last time isn't optimal.

Colin Tizzard's record at Haydock is 6-19 but his Cue Card falls down on the same trend.

Barry Geraghty has a great record for Jonjo O'Neill, 5-10, and rides Taquin Du Soleil. This one falls down on a lack of winning form beyond 2 m 5f and, of less concern, more than one run this season.

CONCLUSION

Of those from  the first three in the betting  and those priced 9/1 or less, only MENORAH ticks all the boxes. Up until his Charlie Hall Chase win over 3m 1f last time, i had him down as a none stayer. But this was a fast run affair (4.9 secs quicker than standard) and none stayers don't win races like that. He will encounter quite different ground today but he ran only 4lbs below his RPR best when winning a 2m 4.5f  Grade 2 chase at Kempton a couple of years ago on Heavy.

A look at yesterdays times at Haydock show the better races with times more like those for races run on Good and, though there was reportedly 12 mm of rain overnight, only showers are forecast today and i doubt it will ride any slower then the Soft side of Good to Soft at worse (unless the weather forecast is wrong!). So I am not too worried about the selection getting the trip again under the prevailing conditions.

However, he is not a typical multiple 3 miles plus winner nor has he won over the Gold Cup distance (though three of those were Kauto Star), so he is a tentative rather than confident selection.

 

 

CHL 3.15 Greatwood Hurdle

Betting

5 of the last 17 favs won and 4 second favs.

There has been one 33/1 shock  but all the rest were returned 14/1 or less – 15 at 12/1or lower.

All were from the first 10 in the betting and 15 were from the first 7.

Weight

Four have carried 11-12 to victory so a big weight has been no problem. Those at the bottom of the weights haven't fared so well though, with only 2 (none in the last 13 runnings) carrying less than 10-5.

Handicap Ratings

Similar to the weights. No problem at the top  but all were rated 124 plus and 16 ran off a mark of 129 or more.

Age

4, 5 and 6 yo's have  dominated this winning 15 of the 17 runnings between them. Of these, 5 yo's have by far the best record with 8 wins from 75 runners (11%)

Form Profile

15 had a maximum of 7 runs in the last year.

7 were making their seasonal debut and another 7 had just the one run. One had already had 9 runs so don't let that put you off Exitas too much!

Similar to the Paddy Power Chase, 10 had won over further – up to 2 miles 4 furlongs.

15 posted a top 5 run last time of which 7 won and 4 finished second.

Trainers/Jockeys

The Nicholls yard goes from strength to strength, as we saw on TV today. They have had 16 winners from 48 runners in the last fortnight. Pearl Swan has nothing like the typical profile for this though and nor does his other runner, Katgary.

The same can be said for John Ferguson's, (6/14 winners last 14 days) pair.

Willie Mullins has had 10 wins from 31 runs this past two weeks. He  has brought the seemingly well handicapped Clondaw Warrior over. But this 7yo has the low weights jinx to overcome.

Tom George (7/20 won in last 14 days) runs Olofi who is older than the usual age at 8 and unseated when last seen on his only run last season.

Phil Middleton has only had 2 runners in the last 14 days 1 of which won. That winner was Exitas who didn't seem to have a hard race when winning 8 days ago and looks one for the shortlist.

David Dennis has only had one runner at the course and it won. That was Roman Flight who he runs tomorrow. Currently 16/1, he is just a tad longer priced than the typical winner of this, but, if he were to be backed a little, he would be worth a second look.

Barry Geraghty is 28% for Nicky Henderson over the past 2 years and rides the fav, Vaniteux, a 5yo with an almost ideal profile.

CONCLUSION

Strictly on trends, there are three 5 yo's from the first 7 in the betting on the shortlist.

Vaniteux's close third behind Vatour in the Grade 1 Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is the best form on show – that is why he has top  weight. He has also shown his stamina by winning a 2m  3.5 f  £3K novice  at Doncaster. The problem is he has had 3 runs (including 2 point to points) on soft going and ran at least a stone below his best on all 3 occasions. Add that to his 250 days off and top weight and I have enough doubts to think 7/2 is skinny odds.

Looking at todays race times, the course isn't riding like the bog they are making out – though the ground is definitely soft. Todays action seemed to show fitness to be an advantage. So, i reluctantly pass over the Nicholls horse.

GARDE LA VICTOIRE was taken off his feet in the Supreme Novice which was  won in a time 4.6 seconds faster than standard – on good to  soft! He  later went on to score in two decent novice hurdles around two and a half miles – one here. He ran a cracker over  a sharp 2m 1f  £25K handicap hurdle at Aintree on ground that would have been too fast over such a trip on such ground, but  stayed on well to finish 3rd on his seasonal debut. On genuinely soft ground and back on a testing track this should bring his stamina and fitness to the fore and, hopefully, the trip will suit in these conditions.

No ground concerns for BALTIMORE ROCK who seems to relish these confitions. On a line through Supreme Novice Hurdle runner up,   Josses Hill, he is very closely weighted with Garde La Victoire. Fitness shouldn't be too big a worry for an inmate of the Pipe yard.

 

 

 

 

 

The Paddy Power trends

Odds

A 33/1  and a 20/1 shot have won in the past 17 renewals, but the rest were returned 16/1 or less.

16 were from the first 8 in the betting and 13 from the first 3.

Favs have a good record with 6 wins but second favs not too good with just 2 wins.

Weights

All carried between 10-2 and 11-9

Handicap Ratings

All were rated 139 +

16 were rated 154 or less .

Age

6 & 7 yo's have won 4-42 and 7-70 respectively, ie they each have a 10% strike rate.This is around double  the wins to runs ratios of 5, 8 and 9 yo's. No horse older than 9 has won over this period.

Form Profile

There have been no back to back winners, (John's Sprit supporters take note), in the past 17 renewals though Cyfor Malta won it twice in 1998 and 2002. However, he was trained by the all conquering (in this race) Pipe family who have won this 7 times in the last 17 runnings – 6 times by Martin and just the once since 2005 by David.

All had run at least once in the previous year and 15 had at least 4 runs.

9 were making their seasonal debut and, of the 8 to have run. none ran more than twice that season, 6 had just the one run and 2 had two.

Underlining the emphasis, in this race, on stamina, no less than 11 had  won over further at distances up to 3m 1.5 furlongs.

Only one had failed to win at 2m 4f plus.

8 won their last race while 13 had finished in the first 4 on their last run.

All of the 15 to complete last time (2 pulled up) had posted a first 8 finish last time.

Trainers/Jockeys Stats

Paul Nicholls yard has struck  form just in time and his sole runner is the highly regarded Caid du Berlais. He would qualify on most  counts except that 5 isn't the ideal age (only the 150 rated dual winner Cyfor Malta has achieved that feat – Martin Pipe again!). Also he has not won over further than 2m 3.5f.

Barry Geraghty is in cracking form and has rode 112 winners from 400 rides for Nicky Henderson in the past 2 years. He rides Oscar Whiskey who would need to break the weight carrying record (Cyfor Mata's second win in 2002 off an OR of 154) in the past 17 runnings.

CONCLUSION

There are two 6 or 7 yo's with a perfect profile and one just one filter short:

Buywise is well in at the weights but will  need to greatly improve his jumping to win this. He has drifted from 6/1 joint fav to 15/2 second fav this morning (having been backed overnight) which, given the record of second favs, is hardly inspiriing either.

There are no such worries about PRESENT VIEW, who had Buywise (improved 13 lbs on RPR since) 7 lengths behind in a 34K Novice Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. On only his sixth chase start there is no reason to suppose he has reached his peak either and he jumps a lot better than Buywise on all past evidence. He is presently 13/2 fav which, given the good record of favs, is encouraging.

Again, i am going to go in double handed,  as last week when we got the winner, with a horse who only falls  down on the first 4 finish last time filter. However, he is within the first 8 limit and ticks all the other boxes – not least on stamina!

INDIAN CASTLE is not obviously well handicapped running off 140 having looked booked for 3rd in the 3m 1.5f Kim Muir Chase at the Festival before blundering badly at the last when running off 130. Earler having won over 3m 1f at Wetherby, he won here over 2m 5f on genuinely soft to heavy going before flopping when 7/2 Fav on faster ground in the above race. He has changed yards from Donald McCain to Ian Williams since and this is his first run for the yard.

Currently a steady 10/1 third fav gives hope too.

 

 

 

 

The November Handicap

DON 3.35 – NOVEMBER HANDICAP

Betting

Other than a 50/1 shock and a 25/1 winner, none were priced above 20/1

Favs have a terrible record with no winners at all from the last 17 runnings.

Second favs, however,  have an above par record of 5/17 and the winner has come from the first 8 in the betting 13/17 times.

Weights

Not many clues here with all within the range. Only 1 carried more than 9-6 though.

Handicap rating

Corresponds with weight stats with only one winner running off a three figure handicap rating.

Age

3 yo's have a significant edge with 6 wins from 86 runners (7%) whereas 4, 5 & 6yo's have a 4 to 5 % strike rate.

No winner was older than 6.

Form profile

16/17 had 4 runs plus that season.

16/17 won between 10 and 12.5 furlongs.

10/17 were distance winners.

Only one had won beyond 12.5 furlongs.

All ran between 8 and 60 days ago.

13/17  finished in the first 4 last time out.

Trainers/Jockeys

Rae Guest's yard is flying at present and he runs a horse with an almost ideal profile, Headline News, (backed from 20/1 to 12/1 this morning!)

Ismael Mohammed has a 3/8 strike rate at the course and runs Rhombus who lacks the typical first 4 last time out finish. However, Martin Harley has a 5/17 record here for the trainer, and so, on trainer and jockey stats alone, is worth a second look.

David Lanigan is 7/19 at Donny but his Plutocracy is too lightly raced to be a typical winner.

CONCLUSION

Those with a perfect profile are:- Mount Logan, Farquhar,  and Late Night Request, all of which are 3 yo's.

If we include the older horses we have another three:- Dashing Star, Open Eagle and Headline News.

Only one horse has won this in the last 17 renewals having run 7 days or less ago. Then again, only 10 have tried, giving  that days since run band the highest strike rate of  all. So, Saturday handicap king,  David O'Meara ,turning out  OPEN EAGLE just 4 days after a win doesn't put me off at all.

I am going to take that one and HEADLINE NEWS as my two against the field. The form of the yard (very few yards are anywhere near peak at this stage of the flat season), and the money for it this morning, makes it irresistible.

However, remember this is a wide open race and the 3 yo's, with, it must be said, slightly better trends profiles, that i mentioned earlier, could be big dangers, so stake accordingly!

 

 

 

 

TV Race trends & selections

DON 2.10

The fav has won over par at 8/1 and 15/17 were returned 8/1 or less.

None had been off the course more than 60 days.

10 won their last race.

PORTAMENTO is the obvious trends choice.

NBY 2.20 ST SIMON STAKES

All bar one were returned 17/2 or less which narrows it down to the first five in the betting;

2 of those 5 are excluded on weight grounds as none of the last 17 winners carried more than 9-3;

15/17 had between 2 and 5 runs which knocks out Emerahldz leaving us with two: the 5 yo Open Eagle and the 3 yo RUWASI who gets the nod on account of 3 yo's having an 18% wins to runs ratio – twice as good as any other age.

DON 3.15

All carried no more than 9-3 and all bar one carried 8-7 plus.

All bar one were rated 97 or less.

This alone narrows it down to 3 of which one has run just 4 times this season (all had at least 5 runs previously that season).

This leaves us with just two: Dungannon and the 3 yo GOLDEN STEPS who i will pick on the basis of the fact that no 7 yo has won whereas 3 yo's have the second best record in this race.

DON 3.50 – RACING POST TROPHY

10 of the last 17 were favs and 10 won last time. 12 had already run over a mile. This points to current fav ELM PARK.

However, i noticed that Bet 365 are trying to 'get' him. But the 3/1 they were offering has been snapped up and he is into 5/2 with AP O'Brien's  Jacobean 10/3 second fav.

O'Brien has farmed this race, taking it 7 times in the last 17 runnings and the record of once raced contenders is interesting with the only such horse trying – and winning, albeit at 5/6.

He hasn't run over a mile but was doing all his best work at the end in a 9K 7 furlong maiden at the Curragh. Should the money come, it would be worth a long second look at this one:

CESAREWITCH race trends, 20/1 and 25/1 selections

NKT 3.50 THE CESAREWITCH

Betting

Only one fav and two second favs have landed this in the last 17 runnings.

Plenty of shocks recently with winners at 66/1 twice, 50/1 & 25/1 – all from the last 6 runnings.

Weight

One carried 9-10, sixteen 9-5 or less and 15 hauled 9-4 minus.

Ratings

All are within the ratings band but 16 were rated 83 plus and 15 were rated 98 or less.

Age

All ages (bar 10) have won this but two stand out – 3yo's and 5 yo's who have around triple the strike rates of the other ages that have any meaningful stats. The former have produced 2 winners from just 36 runners (6%), and the latter 5 winners from 100, in the last 17 renewals.

Form Profile

15 had 5 plus runs in the past year – not a great stat for  fav Quick Jack. Only 3 had run more than 3 times in the past year.

15 had between 2 and 7 runs that season.

Crucially, for me, none had won over less than 1 mile four and a half furlongs but, even more interesting, no less than 15 had already won over at least 2 miles.

15 posted a first 5 finish last time.

Trainers

Only one significant stat on this score today and that is the form of the Chapple-Hyam  yard who have had 5 winners from 16 runners in the past fortnight.

CONCLUSION

There is just one horse that meets all the requirements and that is NOBLE SILK, currently 20/1. Strictly speaking, he is the trends selection.

However, GROOVEJET, the only 3yo in the race, fails on only one score – not winning over 2miles plus. Given her age  and the fact she has never tried a trip beyond 1 mile six and a half furlongs before this is no great surprise.

Second in a Group 2 last time at Doncaster, over the same course and distance which two days later subsequent Arc 4th, Kingston Hill would win the St Leger, she caught a tartar in Silk Sari when beaten 5 lengths.

But it was the time that caught the eye. That race was won in a time just 0.31 secs slower than the truly run St Leger a couple of days later. That would have put her thereabouts in a Group 1 and, staying on well that day and achieving her best ever RPR, she should stand a good chance of getting this near half mile longer trip. The latter is the only drawback but a Group 1 or 2 class horse running off 96 in  a handicap?

Add to all that the form of the yard and she surely can't be missed.

PS, i am surely allowed two selections in a 36 runner race :-)

 

 

Arc going, stats and selection

http://grabilla.com/02a05-34b17790-8cc4-4ebf-956e-da226c26f945.png

I make no apologies for reproducing this table from last year nor the trends up until then as the three years since have proved my thesis – that the official goings don't even resemble the reality according to the race times.

Danedream broke the trends in 2011 but the prediction about the going was spot on. Every man and his dog was saying it was Good to Soft, the course had been watered  etc. Even now, the record of the race in the Racing Post says the official going was Good. This in a race that was run in course record time of 2 minutes 24.49 seconds, 6.01 seconds faster than the Racing Post standard! Course records  don't get broken on Good going and what you have to remember is the french going is one below ours. So, eg 2011's was officially  " Good" , this would be Good to Firm in the UK.

In 2012 Solemia, as a 4yo filly, and a 33/1 shot was yet another trends buster. Again though, the going was described as "Heavy" when the time of the race was 7.18 seconds slower than standard which, if you divide by the number of furlongs  of the race, means the race was run in a time slower than Racing Post Standard by 0.6 seconds per furlong .- a time indicating ground nearer to Good than to Soft going.

Last year Treve won in a time about one and a half seconds slower, (0.1 secs  per furlong), than Racing Post standard on officially Soft going!!

This year they are saying Good going . If we discount as above, this is going that would be called Good to Firm in the UK but even that underestimates how fast the ground will be. We live in Brittany which isn't too far South of Paris and have been walking round in shorts and t-shirts the  last couple of weeks.

Do NOT be put away by false going reports

Conventional wisdom is that because the Arc is a back end of the season race run in Autumn it is generally run on softish ground.

This is not what the clock tells us.

Race record time = 2:24.6  Danedream 2m 24.49 secs in 2011 on "Good"

Racing Post Standard time for the course and distance = 2:30.5

5 out of the last 10 winners (all these figures are from the table up to 2010 above but they have been confirmed in the three subsequent  Arcs too) ran within 2 secs of the course record

8 out of the 10 won in faster time than Racing Post standard

This is in a period when not once has the word firm appeared in the going description!

Bago in 2004 won in a time 5.5 seconds below standard time on “GOOD” going!

Sea the Stars ran 4.2 seconds below standard time, again on “GOOD”.

These were great horses and in the latter case, all time great, but to run such times on good ground?

Conversely, the three slowest times in the races shown in the table were Sakhee in 2001 who won in a time 5.6 seconds below standard on holding ground, Workforce slow by 4.8 seconds in 2012 on going described as Very soft and we have discussed the case of Solemia above.
If we take Workforce’s time and divide the 4.8 seconds above standard by the number of furlongs, 12, we get a figure of slow by .48 seconds per furlong. The Racing Post would define that as good ground.

All other times, ie, 8 of the last 10, would be defined by the time adjusted Racing Post going, (not the official going before the race but the adjusted going once the day’s race times are known), as Firm! The slowest of these 8 was in 2003 when Dalakhani won in a time 1.8 seconds slower thaN standard. Again, divide this extra by 12 furlongs = slow by 0.15 seconds per furlong – Firm. The remainder are all faster than standard time and by definition that means Firm

I think a few things are illustrated by these times:

This, unlike many French races, is run at a frantic pace from start to finish and your pick has to stay the trip.

For all the talk of the big fields and the rough race, (both true), the best horse tends to win as is shown by the record of the first 4 in the betting. Look at the star studded list above, nearly all Derby winners in France, Ireland and/or UK. These are horses that have won classics on midsummer ground .

Your selection needs a turn of foot. For all the bumping and barging the field is usually strung out enough for the gaps to appear by 2 furlongs out, if your horse has the gears to take these gaps.

Look back over the list of the 20 winners above. It is chock full of winners of the various Derbies and other midsummer fast ground races. These were not horses that needed a slog through the mud!

The fact that you see such scintillating finishes supports my view that the going is faster than the official version. Longchamp wouldn’t get such big fields if the word firm appeared in the description – as we are seeing again this year!

MAIN RACE TRENDS

 

The last three runnings have been trends busters in one way or the other with two fillies winning and a 33/1 shot. This could be the beginning of a new trend because of the fillies weight allowance but i am betting that the pre 2011 trends will re-assert themselves on Sunday. Below are the race trends which correspond to the last 10 years of the above time period in the table to 2010.

  • 3yo who won a group 1 as a 2yo (or was unbeaten at 2)
  • Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7
  • Won last time out in last 50 days
  • Won a group 1 race worth 190K+
  • Won over 1M 4F
  • Course winner (or having first run here)
  • Having first start in the race
  • Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel and/or Judmonte Int’l
  • Irish Champion Stakes or Grand Prix de Paris winner
  • From first 4 in the betting
  • Trained by Fabre, Pease, Bin Suroor or de Royer-Dupre
  • Drawn in bottom half of the stalls
  • Hold-up horse

CONCLUSION

This has not been a great race for 5yo's, though, to be fair, not many have tried. There has only been one winner in past 22 years we are looking at and that was the outsider Marienbard with that master of the Arc, Frankie Dettori, (3 Arc wins) onboard.

Essentially the ideal horse, over the long term,  has been an unbeaten (or near enough)  3YO colt from the first 4 in the betting with a first 3 run in the best trial,  The Prix Niel.

The stand out trends horse is ECTOT.

Having beaten the subsequent French 200 Guineas winner here over a mile in April, he overcame the 5 month lay off and the half mile jump up in trip to prevail by a neck in the best trial, the Prix Niel.

He looked to have hit the front plenty soon enough and would have needed the run. Despite this he won by half a second better than the two other Arc trials that day.

It is interesting that Gergory Benoist has chosen this one over the French Oaks winner Avenir Certain, the only other unbeaten one in the race and the main danger in my opinion.

If Treve was back to her brilliant best she would win. I have backed her every time this season so she will probably win when not carrying my money tomorrow! However, my theory is she has a niggling injury which makes her duck right when the pressure is really on and you don't get much more pressure than in the Arc! I can see her placing though, such is her class.

The other one i must mention is last years selection and Derby winner Ruler of the World, who has the ability and seems to be peaking at just the right time. The ground should suit as well.

John

 

ST LEGER RACE TRENDS, TRAINER AND JOCKEY STATS

Betting

9 of the last 17 Favs won but only 2 second favs:

Only one real shock in that that time at 25/1 – all the rest were 14/1 or less with 15 returned 8/1 or less.

Ratings

14  had an official rating – all were rated 109 plus.

All the last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of at ;east 126.

All the last 10 winners were rated within 13 lbs of the top on RPR.

Form Profile

All had run between 3 -7 times in the past year.

15 had run between 3 - 5 times that season

None had run less than 2 times that season and none more than 7

14/17 won at 10 furlings plus and 12 at 11.5 furlongs plus:

Interestingly just one won beyond the trip – then again only two had tried.

16 of the 17 were in the first three last time with 9 winning – the other finished

4th.

TRAINER JOCKEY STATS

John Gosden has won this 3 times from 9 runners in the past decade.His 3 runners today though all fall down on one or more trends.Forever Now, rated 106, would be the lowest rated runner in the past 18 years, Marzocco is rated just 107 and finished 4th last time (both are rated 24 lbs plus below the top on RPR), and Derby third Romsdal has to overcome a bad run in the King George last time where he finished 7th. The latter looks his best chance.

Andrea Atzeni is 9/30 for Roger Varian and he rides the Derby 2nd and class horse of the race, Kingston Hill. A fourth placed run and no win beyond a mile are the trends drawbacks for this one.

 

CONCLUSION

Class versus trends The single best piece of form on offer is Kinsgton Hills second to Australia in the Derby. Beaten just over a length, staying on as well as the winner and well clear of the rest offers  no reason   why third placed, and subsequent King George flop Romsdal should reverse that form. Though with the latters trainers record in the race, and the longer trip, that is by no  means excluded. The trends negatives are a never nearer 4th in the 10 furlong Coral Eclipse next time and no win beyond a mile. A fourth in his last run is not typical either. However, the record of favs makes him a tempting play – but i will resist.

The trends horses are the first two from the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood (one of the best trials for this). With just a neck between them it looks too close to call between SNOW  SKY and WINDSHEAR with the former favoured on account of his much superior RPR (130 VS 124) and his just 1 lbs superiority on the official ratings. Add to that the fact that Snow Sky, in common with over half the last 17 winners, won last time and that seals it.

A lot of people, me included were very impressed by the way Windshear finished in that race, gaining with every stride. But Snow Sky wasn't stopping and may well have run on again if challenged.

Ever year a fancied horse gets found out in this race as stamina is at a premium here with a fast pace on fastish ground. These two look like they will both relish the trip and i think whichever of the two likes it most will win – if Kingston Hill doesn't turn out a quite untypical winner!

Those looking for a double figure each way play could do worse than back Hartnell, whose stamina is assured. He won the Group 2 Queens Vase over 2 miles in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot before beating Windshear nearly 3 lengths in a Group 3 at Newmarket next time. If you excuse his latest flop in the Great Voligeur at York, over what may now be a too sharp mile and a half, then he has a great each way chance. A little over-raced with 9 runs in the past year, just a couple of pounds short on the RPR stats (though fine with the official rating) and outside the first 3 last time would not be the biggest trends shock ever. 20/1 best odds as i write.

 

 

 

2.40 York Melrose Handicap race trends and trainer stats

Betting

Not a great race for the first two in the betting with just 3 of the last 16 favs winning and no second favs.

However, not a race for surprises either with just the one 40/1 shock in that time. All the rest were returned 10/1 or less.

The first 6 in the betting have won 15 of the last 16 renewals. With  just 3 of these coming from the first two, 3rd to 6th fav looks the percentage call.

Weights

All carried between 8-1 and 9-5.

15 carried 8-3 plus and 14  had 8-8+ to carry.

Ratings

All ran off an official rating of between 80 and 95.

15 were rated 84 or more.

Form Profile

3 – 7 runs this season 15/16

All had run over at least 12 furlongs

All had won over at least 10 furlongs (just 2 less than 12F)

12 had won over a mile and a half

Only one was a distance winner and none had won over  further

13 posted a first 9 finish last time

12 finished in the first 7

11 in the first 5

Trainers and Jockeys

The Ed Vaughan yard is bang in form and his Adventure Seeker has the perfect trends profile.

Luca Cumani has won this race twice in the last 8 years and has had 8 winners from 28 runners here in the last 2 years. His Connecticut, however, will have to  break the weight carrying and the handicap ratings record over the past 16  runnings.

Ed de Giles  is 2 out of 3 at the track and he runs Kashmiri Sunset who has the opposite problem, trends-wise, to Connecticut, in that he is rated 1 lbs below the previous lowest winning rating.

CONCLUSION

If we concentrate on all those priced 10/1 or less and take out the first two in the betting, this leaves us with just two, who both have perfect profiles, Rocket Ship and ADVENTURE SEEKER. Preference is for the latter who hails from the bang in form yard of Ed Vaughan, although it is close as the former won last time – as did 4 of the last 16.

 

 

Big Race TV Trends & Selections

NEWBURY 2.05 – WASHINGTON SINGER STAKES

Betting

Great race for the fav with 9 of the last 17 winning. Four second favs won so 13/17 were from the first two in the betting.

16 were from the first 3

One won at 10/1 but all the other 16 were returned 6/1 or less.

Weight and Ratings offer no help here.

Trainer and Jockey Stats

Mark Johnston has had 4 runners in this race over the last 10 runnings and 3 have won! He saddles Diaz who trends-wise has to overcome the handicap of having 4 runs and finishing outside the first 3 last time.

Form Profile

14 had between 1 and 3 runs

Only one had run more than 3 times.

10 had just one run.

9 won last time, 4 were second and two were third.

None finished out of the first 3 last time.

CONCLUSION

The clear fav now is HAWKESBURY who also has the advantage of 3 or less runs and a win last time which akes him the clear trends pick.

 

NEWBURY 2.40 – THE GEOFFREY FREER STAKES

Betting

Another cracking race for the fav with 8 winning  in the last 17 runnings. 3 second favs won.

All were from the first 6 in the betting, 15 were from the first 4, and 13 from the first 3.

Ratings

Of the 16 winners to have an Official Rating (OR) all were rated 105 plus and 13 rated 112+

Age

4 and 5 yo's have dominated this with 6 wins each. However, this doesn't tell the whole story as:

The 5 yo's wins came from just 22 runs (27%) compared to 46 (13%)  runs for the 4 yo's.

3 yo's are 3-16 or 19% and the 6 and  7 yo's have a win each  from 9 and 8 runs respectively (12%)

Form Profile

8 won last time and 15 posted a first four placing.

All except one ran in the last 60 days.

Trainers and Jockeys

John Gosden's runners have scored 13-37 times in the last 14 days and he has Camborne in this who doesnt have a typical profile age-wise or a first 4 finish last time.

James Fanshawe has a 3-6 strike rate with his group runners at this track and runs the classy Seal of Approval, another who finished out of the first 4 places last time.

CONCLUSION

Looking at the 5 horses currently in the first 4 in the betting:

Both Red Cadeaux and Seal of Approval lack a first 4 last time run.

Willing Foe hasn't run for 455 days.

This leaves us with two, Somewhat and the current joint 5/1 joint fav and last time out winner PETHERS MOON. Richard Hughes was very bullish about this one on the Morning Line and, despite not being the ideal age, is the trends selection.

Giraolama is the ideal age and anyone looking for an each  way alternative (around 12/1 at present) might condier this interesting German trained horse whose trainer has a good record when bringing them over here.

 

RIPON 3.30 – GREAT SAINT WILFRID HANDICAP

Betting

Favs won 3 of the last 17 and 1 second fav.

However, no great shocks with all bar a 20/1 shot returning at 16/1 or less and 13 returned at 12/1 or less.

Weight

None carried more than 9-8

15/17 carried 9-6 or less

Ratings

All were rated 101  or less with 16 rated 99 or less.

Age

4  yo's have won 8 of the last 17 renewals from 92 runners (9%). This strike rate is nearly double the next best,  6 and 7 yo's with a 5% strike rate.

Not a great race for 3 yo's, although they have 1 win from just 30 to try. Nor for 5 yo's with 3-89 (3%).

Form Profile

5 won last time out and 12 posted a first 4 finish. All bar two posted a first 7 finish last time.

5 of the last 6 winners were Course and Distance winners.

Trainers and Jockeys Stats

David O'Meara has won this with 2 of his 4 runners and provided the winner in 2 of the last 3 runnings. So his two runners, Bondesire (tipped by the North in the Racing Post) and Out Do must be respected. The former is a 4 yo C/D winner and the only thing against it is that it is just outside the 12/1 band at present – which could change. Out Do, at 5 is, not the ideal age and hasn't got a C/D win, but Daniel Tudhope has a 6-19 strike rate for the trainer. Both were on the shortlist but the former is out of the odds range at the time of writing and the latter's age and  lack of C/D win go against him.

Rachel Richardson is 2/7 for  Tim Easterby but this 6yo with no first  4 run last time would be an unusual 20/1 winner.

Spinatrix has 3 C/D wins from 9 runs here but woud have to win off 1lb higher rating than any other winner in the last 17 years.

Richard Whittaker has a 3-6 strike rate with his all  age handicappers here.

CONCLUSION

Looking for a 4yo priced 12/1 or less , with a first 4 place last time and preferably a C/D winner, leaves us with just one (unless Bondesire is backed) and that one is PIPERS NOTE – especially given his trainers record in these kind of races here.

 

NEWBURY 3.50

Betting

The fav has won 5 of the last 17 and the  second fav the same – so 10/17 from the first two in the betting won.

The first 3 in the betting have won 14.

Other than a 25/1 surprise, no horse was returned higher than 10/1 and all the others had SPs of 13/2 minus

Ratings

All 15 who had a rating had an OR of at least 98 and 13 were rated 107 plus.

Age

4 yo's are best with 7 wins from 45 runs (16%). 3 yo's are 5-55 (11%) and 5 yo's are 3-34 (9%) with 6 and 7 yos have a win each from 14 and 5 runs respectively.

Form Profile

Only 2 won last time and 2 were second.

All bar one finished in the first 7 in their last run.

9 of the last 10 had won a race that season.

Trainers and Jockeys

The Gosden yard continues in great form with 13-37 in the last 14 days. He  runs what is surely the best horse in the race, Gregorian.However from a trends viewpoint, this one ran just 6 days ago and, more troubling, has a zero for his last run.

CONCLUSION

Gregorian won this well enough last  year and looks to be the class horse but his last run (though eased when beaten in France last Sunday) is a trends negative, as is Producer's lack of a win this season.

This leaves us with two, Chil The Kite and BRETON ROCK with the latter getting the nod on account of his 4 yo age group having a near double wins to runs ratio than the 5yo's.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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