I have ‘borrowed’ the quote below from a recent blog by Kieran at Make Your Betting Pay. I will put the link at the bottom of this blog for the full article. It is so useful, especially the table, and uses such a scientific approach, that i have used about half the blog below.
“We need to strike the right balance between leveraging our profits and protecting the integrity of our bank.
My usual starting point when carrying out this kind of analysis would be to calculate the longest expected losing run over 1000 bets. There is a formula for calculating this (mail me if you’re interested) but I tend to use a table which makes life a lot easier. I’ve reproduced the table below (it’s accurate enough for our purposes)
The important thing to remember here is that the larger the number of bets you look at, the longer the likely losing run will be. As an example with a 15% strike rate looked at over 1000 bets you are likely to hit a maximum losing run of 43 bets. However, if you were to have 10,000 bets with a similar strike rate, at some point you are likely to hit a losing run of 57 bets. That being the case, it’s useful to have a reasonable idea of the number of bets your selection method is going to throw up over a period of time. If you are looking at a method that throws up 300 bets a year then calculating your longest likely losing run over 1000 bets is ample. If you are looking at a method that throws up 10,000 bets a year, you need to dig a bit deeper than that.
Let’s assume the method we are analysing has 1000 bets a year with a strike rate of 60%. We can see from the table that we are likely to hit 8 consecutive losers at some point during year 1.
You can see that if we were to choose a 10% staking plan on such a method, we are almost certain to hit trouble and quite possibly decimate our bank at some point.
We therefore need our bank to be several times the size of our longest likely losing run – it is well within the realms of statistical possibility that we could get 2 such runs in quick succession!
For safety, I would say it is best to work with your bank broken down into a number of points that equates to 5 times your longest likely losing sequence.”
I think 5 times the maximum losing run is on the conservative side. A lot depends on what sort of start you get. If you’re off to a flyer, by the time the inevitable ‘crippler’ comes along you should have taken out more than enough profit to set up a new bank and won’t care. If you start on the bad run your faith in the system/method/tipster etc is shaken and you would probably abandon what may be a good thing. What is often forgotten though is that with percentage staking the stakes go down during losing runs so a losing run of ten wouldn’t be ten points lost but considerably less.
I heartily agree with everything else though. There is no doubt that basing your staking on avoiding one long losing run is folly as it is more common that a series of losing runs is the bank breaker. Therefore it is wise to allow for this.
The debate will rage on but, in the end, we are back to another grossly underestimated factor in betting – psychology. Some thrive on risk others prefer the more softly softly ” I don’t need the stress as I would like to live to spend the winnings” approach. There is no “wrong” nor “right” way, (try telling the Frankie Dettori backers that day at Ascot that they were throwing their money away backing 7 horse accas!). Granted, the same people could do a £1 acca 7 every day for the rest of their lives and lose every day. But they wouldn’t be complaining as the stakes would come out of the massive interest on their winnings!
There again though, if you are backing seriously, you have to work on the basis of probability and not possibility so it is a question of finding the optimum. For those who shun risk it will be five times the max or more. For those who thrive on it, maybe twice the max and for those who are trying to strike a happy medium, 2-4 times the max.
Whatever your appetite for risk, the table above offers a basis for making an informed choice. You can’t say you weren’t warned!
Here’s the link to Kieran’s site: http://makeyourbettingpay.co.uk/ . You will find the whole blog on there dated 18/1/12.
The fav has won over par at 8/1 and 15/17 were returned 8/1 or less.
None had been off the course more than 60 days.
10 won their last race.
PORTAMENTO is the obvious trends choice.
NBY 2.20 ST SIMON STAKES
All bar one were returned 17/2 or less which narrows it down to the first five in the betting;
2 of those 5 are excluded on weight grounds as none of the last 17 winners carried more than 9-3;
15/17 had between 2 and 5 runs which knocks out Emerahldz leaving us with two: the 5 yo Open Eagle and the 3 yo RUWASI who gets the nod on account of 3 yo's having an 18% wins to runs ratio – twice as good as any other age.
All carried no more than 9-3 and all bar one carried 8-7 plus.
All bar one were rated 97 or less.
This alone narrows it down to 3 of which one has run just 4 times this season (all had at least 5 runs previously that season).
This leaves us with just two: Dungannon and the 3 yo GOLDEN STEPS who i will pick on the basis of the fact that no 7 yo has won whereas 3 yo's have the second best record in this race.
DON 3.50 – RACING POST TROPHY
10 of the last 17 were favs and 10 won last time. 12 had already run over a mile. This points to current fav ELM PARK.
However, i noticed that Bet 365 are trying to 'get' him. But the 3/1 they were offering has been snapped up and he is into 5/2 with AP O'Brien's Jacobean 10/3 second fav.
O'Brien has farmed this race, taking it 7 times in the last 17 runnings and the record of once raced contenders is interesting with the only such horse trying – and winning, albeit at 5/6.
He hasn't run over a mile but was doing all his best work at the end in a 9K 7 furlong maiden at the Curragh. Should the money come, it would be worth a long second look at this one:
NKT 3.50 THE CESAREWITCH
Only one fav and two second favs have landed this in the last 17 runnings.
Plenty of shocks recently with winners at 66/1 twice, 50/1 & 25/1 – all from the last 6 runnings.
One carried 9-10, sixteen 9-5 or less and 15 hauled 9-4 minus.
All are within the ratings band but 16 were rated 83 plus and 15 were rated 98 or less.
All ages (bar 10) have won this but two stand out – 3yo's and 5 yo's who have around triple the strike rates of the other ages that have any meaningful stats. The former have produced 2 winners from just 36 runners (6%), and the latter 5 winners from 100, in the last 17 renewals.
15 had 5 plus runs in the past year – not a great stat for fav Quick Jack. Only 3 had run more than 3 times in the past year.
15 had between 2 and 7 runs that season.
Crucially, for me, none had won over less than 1 mile four and a half furlongs but, even more interesting, no less than 15 had already won over at least 2 miles.
15 posted a first 5 finish last time.
Only one significant stat on this score today and that is the form of the Chapple-Hyam yard who have had 5 winners from 16 runners in the past fortnight.
There is just one horse that meets all the requirements and that is NOBLE SILK, currently 20/1. Strictly speaking, he is the trends selection.
However, GROOVEJET, the only 3yo in the race, fails on only one score – not winning over 2miles plus. Given her age and the fact she has never tried a trip beyond 1 mile six and a half furlongs before this is no great surprise.
Second in a Group 2 last time at Doncaster, over the same course and distance which two days later subsequent Arc 4th, Kingston Hill would win the St Leger, she caught a tartar in Silk Sari when beaten 5 lengths.
But it was the time that caught the eye. That race was won in a time just 0.31 secs slower than the truly run St Leger a couple of days later. That would have put her thereabouts in a Group 1 and, staying on well that day and achieving her best ever RPR, she should stand a good chance of getting this near half mile longer trip. The latter is the only drawback but a Group 1 or 2 class horse running off 96 in a handicap?
Add to all that the form of the yard and she surely can't be missed.
PS, i am surely allowed two selections in a 36 runner race
I make no apologies for reproducing this table from last year nor the trends up until then as the three years since have proved my thesis – that the official goings don't even resemble the reality according to the race times.
Danedream broke the trends in 2011 but the prediction about the going was spot on. Every man and his dog was saying it was Good to Soft, the course had been watered etc. Even now, the record of the race in the Racing Post says the official going was Good. This in a race that was run in course record time of 2 minutes 24.49 seconds, 6.01 seconds faster than the Racing Post standard! Course records don't get broken on Good going and what you have to remember is the french going is one below ours. So, eg 2011's was officially " Good" , this would be Good to Firm in the UK.
In 2012 Solemia, as a 4yo filly, and a 33/1 shot was yet another trends buster. Again though, the going was described as "Heavy" when the time of the race was 7.18 seconds slower than standard which, if you divide by the number of furlongs of the race, means the race was run in a time slower than Racing Post Standard by 0.6 seconds per furlong .- a time indicating ground nearer to Good than to Soft going.
Last year Treve won in a time about one and a half seconds slower, (0.1 secs per furlong), than Racing Post standard on officially Soft going!!
This year they are saying Good going . If we discount as above, this is going that would be called Good to Firm in the UK but even that underestimates how fast the ground will be. We live in Brittany which isn't too far South of Paris and have been walking round in shorts and t-shirts the last couple of weeks.
Do NOT be put away by false going reports
Conventional wisdom is that because the Arc is a back end of the season race run in Autumn it is generally run on softish ground.
This is not what the clock tells us.
Race record time = 2:24.6 Danedream 2m 24.49 secs in 2011 on "Good"
Racing Post Standard time for the course and distance = 2:30.5
5 out of the last 10 winners (all these figures are from the table up to 2010 above but they have been confirmed in the three subsequent Arcs too) ran within 2 secs of the course record
8 out of the 10 won in faster time than Racing Post standard
This is in a period when not once has the word firm appeared in the going description!
Bago in 2004 won in a time 5.5 seconds below standard time on “GOOD” going!
Sea the Stars ran 4.2 seconds below standard time, again on “GOOD”.
These were great horses and in the latter case, all time great, but to run such times on good ground?
Conversely, the three slowest times in the races shown in the table were Sakhee in 2001 who won in a time 5.6 seconds below standard on holding ground, Workforce slow by 4.8 seconds in 2012 on going described as Very soft and we have discussed the case of Solemia above.
If we take Workforce’s time and divide the 4.8 seconds above standard by the number of furlongs, 12, we get a figure of slow by .48 seconds per furlong. The Racing Post would define that as good ground.
All other times, ie, 8 of the last 10, would be defined by the time adjusted Racing Post going, (not the official going before the race but the adjusted going once the day’s race times are known), as Firm! The slowest of these 8 was in 2003 when Dalakhani won in a time 1.8 seconds slower thaN standard. Again, divide this extra by 12 furlongs = slow by 0.15 seconds per furlong – Firm. The remainder are all faster than standard time and by definition that means Firm
I think a few things are illustrated by these times:
This, unlike many French races, is run at a frantic pace from start to finish and your pick has to stay the trip.
For all the talk of the big fields and the rough race, (both true), the best horse tends to win as is shown by the record of the first 4 in the betting. Look at the star studded list above, nearly all Derby winners in France, Ireland and/or UK. These are horses that have won classics on midsummer ground .
Your selection needs a turn of foot. For all the bumping and barging the field is usually strung out enough for the gaps to appear by 2 furlongs out, if your horse has the gears to take these gaps.
Look back over the list of the 20 winners above. It is chock full of winners of the various Derbies and other midsummer fast ground races. These were not horses that needed a slog through the mud!
The fact that you see such scintillating finishes supports my view that the going is faster than the official version. Longchamp wouldn’t get such big fields if the word firm appeared in the description – as we are seeing again this year!
MAIN RACE TRENDS
The last three runnings have been trends busters in one way or the other with two fillies winning and a 33/1 shot. This could be the beginning of a new trend because of the fillies weight allowance but i am betting that the pre 2011 trends will re-assert themselves on Sunday. Below are the race trends which correspond to the last 10 years of the above time period in the table to 2010.
- 3yo who won a group 1 as a 2yo (or was unbeaten at 2)
- Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7
- Won last time out in last 50 days
- Won a group 1 race worth 190K+
- Won over 1M 4F
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Having first start in the race
- Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel and/or Judmonte Int’l
- Irish Champion Stakes or Grand Prix de Paris winner
- From first 4 in the betting
- Trained by Fabre, Pease, Bin Suroor or de Royer-Dupre
- Drawn in bottom half of the stalls
- Hold-up horse
This has not been a great race for 5yo's, though, to be fair, not many have tried. There has only been one winner in past 22 years we are looking at and that was the outsider Marienbard with that master of the Arc, Frankie Dettori, (3 Arc wins) onboard.
Essentially the ideal horse, over the long term, has been an unbeaten (or near enough) 3YO colt from the first 4 in the betting with a first 3 run in the best trial, The Prix Niel.
The stand out trends horse is ECTOT.
Having beaten the subsequent French 200 Guineas winner here over a mile in April, he overcame the 5 month lay off and the half mile jump up in trip to prevail by a neck in the best trial, the Prix Niel.
He looked to have hit the front plenty soon enough and would have needed the run. Despite this he won by half a second better than the two other Arc trials that day.
It is interesting that Gergory Benoist has chosen this one over the French Oaks winner Avenir Certain, the only other unbeaten one in the race and the main danger in my opinion.
If Treve was back to her brilliant best she would win. I have backed her every time this season so she will probably win when not carrying my money tomorrow! However, my theory is she has a niggling injury which makes her duck right when the pressure is really on and you don't get much more pressure than in the Arc! I can see her placing though, such is her class.
The other one i must mention is last years selection and Derby winner Ruler of the World, who has the ability and seems to be peaking at just the right time. The ground should suit as well.
9 of the last 17 Favs won but only 2 second favs:
Only one real shock in that that time at 25/1 – all the rest were 14/1 or less with 15 returned 8/1 or less.
14 had an official rating – all were rated 109 plus.
All the last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of at ;east 126.
All the last 10 winners were rated within 13 lbs of the top on RPR.
All had run between 3 -7 times in the past year.
15 had run between 3 - 5 times that season
None had run less than 2 times that season and none more than 7
14/17 won at 10 furlings plus and 12 at 11.5 furlongs plus:
Interestingly just one won beyond the trip – then again only two had tried.
16 of the 17 were in the first three last time with 9 winning – the other finished
TRAINER JOCKEY STATS
John Gosden has won this 3 times from 9 runners in the past decade.His 3 runners today though all fall down on one or more trends.Forever Now, rated 106, would be the lowest rated runner in the past 18 years, Marzocco is rated just 107 and finished 4th last time (both are rated 24 lbs plus below the top on RPR), and Derby third Romsdal has to overcome a bad run in the King George last time where he finished 7th. The latter looks his best chance.
Andrea Atzeni is 9/30 for Roger Varian and he rides the Derby 2nd and class horse of the race, Kingston Hill. A fourth placed run and no win beyond a mile are the trends drawbacks for this one.
Class versus trends The single best piece of form on offer is Kinsgton Hills second to Australia in the Derby. Beaten just over a length, staying on as well as the winner and well clear of the rest offers no reason why third placed, and subsequent King George flop Romsdal should reverse that form. Though with the latters trainers record in the race, and the longer trip, that is by no means excluded. The trends negatives are a never nearer 4th in the 10 furlong Coral Eclipse next time and no win beyond a mile. A fourth in his last run is not typical either. However, the record of favs makes him a tempting play – but i will resist.
The trends horses are the first two from the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood (one of the best trials for this). With just a neck between them it looks too close to call between SNOW SKY and WINDSHEAR with the former favoured on account of his much superior RPR (130 VS 124) and his just 1 lbs superiority on the official ratings. Add to that the fact that Snow Sky, in common with over half the last 17 winners, won last time and that seals it.
A lot of people, me included were very impressed by the way Windshear finished in that race, gaining with every stride. But Snow Sky wasn't stopping and may well have run on again if challenged.
Ever year a fancied horse gets found out in this race as stamina is at a premium here with a fast pace on fastish ground. These two look like they will both relish the trip and i think whichever of the two likes it most will win – if Kingston Hill doesn't turn out a quite untypical winner!
Those looking for a double figure each way play could do worse than back Hartnell, whose stamina is assured. He won the Group 2 Queens Vase over 2 miles in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot before beating Windshear nearly 3 lengths in a Group 3 at Newmarket next time. If you excuse his latest flop in the Great Voligeur at York, over what may now be a too sharp mile and a half, then he has a great each way chance. A little over-raced with 9 runs in the past year, just a couple of pounds short on the RPR stats (though fine with the official rating) and outside the first 3 last time would not be the biggest trends shock ever. 20/1 best odds as i write.
Not a great race for the first two in the betting with just 3 of the last 16 favs winning and no second favs.
However, not a race for surprises either with just the one 40/1 shock in that time. All the rest were returned 10/1 or less.
The first 6 in the betting have won 15 of the last 16 renewals. With just 3 of these coming from the first two, 3rd to 6th fav looks the percentage call.
All carried between 8-1 and 9-5.
15 carried 8-3 plus and 14 had 8-8+ to carry.
All ran off an official rating of between 80 and 95.
15 were rated 84 or more.
3 – 7 runs this season 15/16
All had run over at least 12 furlongs
All had won over at least 10 furlongs (just 2 less than 12F)
12 had won over a mile and a half
Only one was a distance winner and none had won over further
13 posted a first 9 finish last time
12 finished in the first 7
11 in the first 5
Trainers and Jockeys
The Ed Vaughan yard is bang in form and his Adventure Seeker has the perfect trends profile.
Luca Cumani has won this race twice in the last 8 years and has had 8 winners from 28 runners here in the last 2 years. His Connecticut, however, will have to break the weight carrying and the handicap ratings record over the past 16 runnings.
Ed de Giles is 2 out of 3 at the track and he runs Kashmiri Sunset who has the opposite problem, trends-wise, to Connecticut, in that he is rated 1 lbs below the previous lowest winning rating.
If we concentrate on all those priced 10/1 or less and take out the first two in the betting, this leaves us with just two, who both have perfect profiles, Rocket Ship and ADVENTURE SEEKER. Preference is for the latter who hails from the bang in form yard of Ed Vaughan, although it is close as the former won last time – as did 4 of the last 16.
NEWBURY 2.05 – WASHINGTON SINGER STAKES
Great race for the fav with 9 of the last 17 winning. Four second favs won so 13/17 were from the first two in the betting.
16 were from the first 3
One won at 10/1 but all the other 16 were returned 6/1 or less.
Weight and Ratings offer no help here.
Trainer and Jockey Stats
Mark Johnston has had 4 runners in this race over the last 10 runnings and 3 have won! He saddles Diaz who trends-wise has to overcome the handicap of having 4 runs and finishing outside the first 3 last time.
14 had between 1 and 3 runs
Only one had run more than 3 times.
10 had just one run.
9 won last time, 4 were second and two were third.
None finished out of the first 3 last time.
The clear fav now is HAWKESBURY who also has the advantage of 3 or less runs and a win last time which akes him the clear trends pick.
NEWBURY 2.40 – THE GEOFFREY FREER STAKES
Another cracking race for the fav with 8 winning in the last 17 runnings. 3 second favs won.
All were from the first 6 in the betting, 15 were from the first 4, and 13 from the first 3.
Of the 16 winners to have an Official Rating (OR) all were rated 105 plus and 13 rated 112+
4 and 5 yo's have dominated this with 6 wins each. However, this doesn't tell the whole story as:
The 5 yo's wins came from just 22 runs (27%) compared to 46 (13%) runs for the 4 yo's.
3 yo's are 3-16 or 19% and the 6 and 7 yo's have a win each from 9 and 8 runs respectively (12%)
8 won last time and 15 posted a first four placing.
All except one ran in the last 60 days.
Trainers and Jockeys
John Gosden's runners have scored 13-37 times in the last 14 days and he has Camborne in this who doesnt have a typical profile age-wise or a first 4 finish last time.
James Fanshawe has a 3-6 strike rate with his group runners at this track and runs the classy Seal of Approval, another who finished out of the first 4 places last time.
Looking at the 5 horses currently in the first 4 in the betting:
Both Red Cadeaux and Seal of Approval lack a first 4 last time run.
Willing Foe hasn't run for 455 days.
This leaves us with two, Somewhat and the current joint 5/1 joint fav and last time out winner PETHERS MOON. Richard Hughes was very bullish about this one on the Morning Line and, despite not being the ideal age, is the trends selection.
Giraolama is the ideal age and anyone looking for an each way alternative (around 12/1 at present) might condier this interesting German trained horse whose trainer has a good record when bringing them over here.
RIPON 3.30 – GREAT SAINT WILFRID HANDICAP
Favs won 3 of the last 17 and 1 second fav.
However, no great shocks with all bar a 20/1 shot returning at 16/1 or less and 13 returned at 12/1 or less.
None carried more than 9-8
15/17 carried 9-6 or less
All were rated 101 or less with 16 rated 99 or less.
4 yo's have won 8 of the last 17 renewals from 92 runners (9%). This strike rate is nearly double the next best, 6 and 7 yo's with a 5% strike rate.
Not a great race for 3 yo's, although they have 1 win from just 30 to try. Nor for 5 yo's with 3-89 (3%).
5 won last time out and 12 posted a first 4 finish. All bar two posted a first 7 finish last time.
5 of the last 6 winners were Course and Distance winners.
Trainers and Jockeys Stats
David O'Meara has won this with 2 of his 4 runners and provided the winner in 2 of the last 3 runnings. So his two runners, Bondesire (tipped by the North in the Racing Post) and Out Do must be respected. The former is a 4 yo C/D winner and the only thing against it is that it is just outside the 12/1 band at present – which could change. Out Do, at 5 is, not the ideal age and hasn't got a C/D win, but Daniel Tudhope has a 6-19 strike rate for the trainer. Both were on the shortlist but the former is out of the odds range at the time of writing and the latter's age and lack of C/D win go against him.
Rachel Richardson is 2/7 for Tim Easterby but this 6yo with no first 4 run last time would be an unusual 20/1 winner.
Spinatrix has 3 C/D wins from 9 runs here but woud have to win off 1lb higher rating than any other winner in the last 17 years.
Richard Whittaker has a 3-6 strike rate with his all age handicappers here.
Looking for a 4yo priced 12/1 or less , with a first 4 place last time and preferably a C/D winner, leaves us with just one (unless Bondesire is backed) and that one is PIPERS NOTE – especially given his trainers record in these kind of races here.
The fav has won 5 of the last 17 and the second fav the same – so 10/17 from the first two in the betting won.
The first 3 in the betting have won 14.
Other than a 25/1 surprise, no horse was returned higher than 10/1 and all the others had SPs of 13/2 minus
All 15 who had a rating had an OR of at least 98 and 13 were rated 107 plus.
4 yo's are best with 7 wins from 45 runs (16%). 3 yo's are 5-55 (11%) and 5 yo's are 3-34 (9%) with 6 and 7 yos have a win each from 14 and 5 runs respectively.
Only 2 won last time and 2 were second.
All bar one finished in the first 7 in their last run.
9 of the last 10 had won a race that season.
Trainers and Jockeys
The Gosden yard continues in great form with 13-37 in the last 14 days. He runs what is surely the best horse in the race, Gregorian.However from a trends viewpoint, this one ran just 6 days ago and, more troubling, has a zero for his last run.
Gregorian won this well enough last year and looks to be the class horse but his last run (though eased when beaten in France last Sunday) is a trends negative, as is Producer's lack of a win this season.
This leaves us with two, Chil The Kite and BRETON ROCK with the latter getting the nod on account of his 4 yo age group having a near double wins to runs ratio than the 5yo's.
GOO 2.05 – HERITAGE HANDICAP
Fav has won 4 of the last 15 but the second fav just one. So it looks like the market gets it right between the first two in this.
There have been winners at 28/1, 22/1, 18/1 and 16/1 but 11 of the past 15 were from the first 6 in the betting. The rest were returned at 12/1 or less. NB those four longest priced winners were the last 4.
All carried between 8-6 and 9-11, which knocks out the bottom 2.
The last 11 carried 8-13 plus which knocks the bottom 6 out.
The last 10 were rated 82 plus by the official handicapper (OR).
5 and 6 yo's have won 6 between them and have a 5% winners to runners ratio.
3 yo's are 0-21 in this and 4 yo's just 2-97.
However, although there haven't been that many of them, the older horses have done well with 3-41 (7%) 7yo's winning, 2-20 8 yo's (10%) and even 1-12 (8%)
Not a race for lightly raced types. 15/17 had at least 8 runs in the past year.
16 were distance winners.
15 had won over further – up to a mile which suggests speed alone isn't enough here.
15 posted a top 9 finishing position last time out.
Peter Hedger has an 8-23 strike rate at Goodwood. He saddles the 7 yo Slip Sliding Away who has a lot going for him but no single figure finish last time.
Brian Gubby is 2-7 at the track and he has the 5 yo Kinglami, who is worth a further look.
Given the recent record of longer priced horses i am going to ignore the fine overall record of the first 6 in the betting, which is dominated today by usually ill starred 4 yo's.
Instead i have looked at the older horses, 5 yo plus, with the above form profile.
All have chances but the only one has shown the stamina required for this by winning over further than todays 6F and that is the above mentioned 5yo, KINGLAMI – 25/1 best price as i write.
I realise he is just below the recent weights and ratings trends but i think this win over further is more important. We shall see!
GOO 3.15 – THE NASSAU STAKES
The fav has won 9 of the last 17 runnings and the second fav 4-17.
16 were from the first 3 in the betting and only one returned greater than 11/2.
Of the 13 horses to have a UK or Irish rating just 3 were rated 103 – 107. All the rest were rated at least 110.
3 yo's have dominated this with 12 wins and a 16% strike rate compared to the 4yo's with 3-49 (6%).
13 had already ran at the trip with 10 running over further – 8 of which had won up to a mile and a half.
7 won last time, 4 were second. All bar one finished in the top 5 last time.
With the exception of last years 20/1 shock, all had an Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 111 in the last 10 years.
9 of the last 10 were rated within 9 lbs of the RPR top.
Except for the fact they are both 4yo's, this looks like a two horse race (famous last words!).
Two of the three 3 yo's lack a last time out first 5 placing and the one that won has an OR of just 99 and an adjusted RPR of 110 – which is less than last years shock winner.
On the face of it, the best form is that of VENUS DE MILO WITH her good near 3L second to Thistle Bird in a Group 1 over the trip at the Curragh last time. However, either Thistle Bird improved or that wasn't the strongest of Group 1's.
I am going to take a chance on the second fav here who is rated joint top on RPR and who brings some useful Group 1 form of her own when beaten less that 2 lengths in the 190K Grand Prix de St Cloud, a race where Noble Mission was beaten a head.
That looks better form to me. She also has the bonus of a win over further (as does the fav).
All her form has been on Softish ging but, firstly, French Good to Soft is our Good and, secondly, the time for that last race of hers indicated Good to Firm.
Her very shrewd trainer wouldn't be running her if he thought she wouldn't like the going and i think they may well try to make use of her stamina by making all.
NARNYN is 4/1 jt second fav at present with Stoute's horse being backed!
GOO 3.50 – STEWARDS CUP
Fav won 4 of the last 17 and 2F won 3.
One from the first 6 in the betting has won 14 times! Amazing in a competitive handicap like this.
Horses priced 40's, 33's & 20's have taken this but the rest were returned 14/1 or less.
No clues here. All are in the weights band.
All are in the ratings band but 16 were rated 104 or less which lops off the top 4.
All except 1 of the last 10 was rated within 5 lbs of the top on RPR.
4 and 5 yo's have won a whopping 13 renewals between them, (7 and 6 respectively) with a 5% strike rate. 6 y'os are next best with 3 wins from 86 runs (3%).
3 yo's have won just 1-48 in this period and no horse older than 6 has won.
Tim Pitt's yard is in fine form with 2-4 winners in the last 14 days.
At least 4 runs in the last year
All were distance winners
Max 60 days since a run
5 won last time and 4 were second.
15/17 posted a top 9 finish last time.
The stats narrow it down to 2 , DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW and MUTHMIR, who are my 2 against the field.
For those who like to back just ne, i would just favour DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW who has had the required 4 plus runs in the past year compared to the other's 3.
ASC 3.50 – THE KING GEORGE
8 favs have won from the last 17 runnings, as have 3 second favs.
One 16/1 shot has won in that time but the other 16 all had SP's of 13/2 or less.
All 17 were from the first 6 in the betting.
John Gosden won this with Nathaniel in 2011 and that had an official rating (OR) of 115. That, however, is the only horse to have won this off a lower mark than 119 in the past 17 runnings.
8 of the last 10 winners had an RPR of 133 plus.
9 of the last 10 were rated within 4 lbs of the top on RPR
4 yo's have dominated this race with 11 winners from 69 runners (16%), including 9 of the last 10.
Then again 3 yo's have been no slouches either with 3 winners from just 26 runners (12%).
5 yo's are next best with 2-33 (6%) and a single 6 yo has won from 12 to try (8%)
10 were distance winners ( 8 in the past 10 years).
Only 2 had won over a longer trip.
All had a maxium of 6 runs in the last year – 15 just 5 times or less.that year.
All bar one had finished in the first 3 last time – 11 won.
3 winners from the Prince of Wales Stakes have tried and 2 have won this in the last 10 years.
2 Hardwicke Stakes winners have won from 7 to try in the last decade.
Only 2 fillies have won this since 1983 and one of those was the great Danedream.
Only one Oaks winner has won in the same year as her Oaks win.
Do bear in mind though that not many fillies try. They have to be very well thought of to be entered for this. Only 4 have tried in the last 10 years and 1 won. Then again some really top class fillies have been beaten in this!
The O'Brien yard is bang in form with 14/50 winners in the past 14 days. They run Magician who has an excellent trends profile for this.
John Gosden has a 5/17 strike rate in Listed/Group races at Ascot and he runs the bottom 3 who are all rated below the 119 every other winner was rated. The exception was Nathaniel (trained by Gosden).
On the RPR ratings though, none them are rated 133 plus and none within 4 lbs of the top on RPR.
Shocks in this are rare in this and the trends tell us to look at or near the top of the market – those priced 13/2 or less.
Given the record of favs (8/17) it may be wise to start there.
As I write, Telescope is just shading favouritism. This horse seems to have everything in his favour: head of the market, top on RPR and the only horse with an RPR of 133 pus in the race. A 4yo with 5 races this last year who won the second best trial for this, the group 2 Hardwicke Stakes, in his last race, in a very fast time and by 7 lengths.The only possible trends doubt could be that he hasn't won a Group 1 yet – but neither had the 2 other Hardwicke winners to take this in the last decade.
His rival for favouritism is the impressive, unbeaten Oaks winner Taghrooda. Against her are the ratings stats discussed above. However, Gosden has done it before with the colt, Nathaniel, who was 11bs off the top on RPR and had an OR of just 115. There are more doubts about this filly than there are about the fav though. What's more the clock speaks in favour of Telescope with him winning the Hardwicke in a time 1.45 faster than standard and Taghrooda winning the Oaks in a time 0.19 secs slower than standard. Granted the former was on official going of Good to Firm and the latter on Good. But who believes official goings these days? I prefer to go off the actual time not the guesstimates of the official going.
Breeders Cup dual Group 1 winner Magician will love the fast ground and, as a 4yo currently trading around 5/1, has a near perfect profile for this. However with the record of last time out winners in this i would have preferred to see a 1 rather than a 2 on the right hand side of his form figures. Having said that, that race was the Prince of Wales stakes at Royal Ascot, a race that has been a really good trial for this and where the first 3 home broke the track record. It is the winners of that race though that tend to win this.
Magician is the only horse in the race rated within 4 bs of the top on RPR and has a lot going for him.
John Gosden has thrown another spanner in the works by supplementing (as he did with Nathaniel) the lightly raced and highly talented Group 2 winning colt, Eagle Top. He is reluctantly discarded on the same ratings basis as his stable mates but his form is outstanding having beaten subsequent Group 1 Belmont Stakes (2nd, by just a head), Adelaide, 3 and a bit lengths in a time around half a second slower than Telescope's on the following day at Royal Ascot. This horse will surely improve and could be anything.
Frankie Dettori referred to this as a classic renewal on the Morning Line earlier today. With only one horse having an RPR of 133 or more, something 8 of the last 10 had, that sounds like hype to me. However, that doesn't mean this won't be an interesting race with the improving 3 yo's taking on the proven group performers.
As a trends blog the percentage call is to go for the horse with the perfect trends profile, TELESCOPE.
However, i wouldn't be putting the house on it and it would not surprise me at all if one of Gosden's improving 3 yo's took the spoils. My pick of those three would be Eagle Rock who could be the each way play.
6 of the last 17 favs won and 6 second favs.
14 were from the first 4 in the betting. All the last 10 were from the first 3.
A 33/1 shot and two 12/1's have won but the rest were sent off at 9/2 or less – including the last 10.
Of the 6 with a rating, all were rated 101 plus.
All the last 10 were rated 126+ by RPR.
All the last 10 were rated within 4lbs of the top on RPR (6 were top rated).
None of the last 17 winners had run beyond todays trip.
15-17 had run between 2 and 6 times in the past year.
16 posted a top 4 finish last time with 8 winning (7 in the last 10 years).
9 of the last 10 posted a first two finish last time.
The Irish 1000 Guineas, (Marvellous), has been a poor trial for this with the last winner coming from that race in 1979.
Similar with The Ribblesdale Stakes winners where 7 have tried and all have failed in this in the past 10 years. In fact 11 have tried and none won since 1994.
The Epsom Oaks has been a good trial with 17 of the last 30 to try winning. However, don't look too far down the field as it was 1997 the last time any horse finishing worst than third in that race won this.
The first thing to strike me is that one stat will have to give today. A horse rated more than 4 lbs off the top RPR and rated less than 126 adjusted will win, or an Irish Guineas winner will win.
Form figures wise, a first two finish from the first 3 or 4 in the market (9 of the last 10 years) narrows it down to two: Bracelet and Tarfasha.The former has the plus of being a last time winner but the minus of winning the Ribblesdale. The latter has the plus of being from the Oaks and running second last time (Volume just missed second place by just a nose in that race and could be the best each way play at 4/1 as English based trainers have won 4 of the last 5 – it is 2008 since an irish based trainer won).
However, this is a trends blog and the trends say a first two finish last time. Therefore TARFASHA is the selection but i think Volume, from the bang in form Luca cumani stable, will go close and is the best each way.
ASCOT 2.30 THE SUMMER MILE
Favs have won 3 of the last 17 runnings with, interestingly, 7 second favs winning – which is way above par.
16 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and there has only been one shock – a 33/1 winner, all the others were returned 11/1 or less.
All carried at least 9-1 and 5 have carried 9-5 plus.
15 had an official rating and, of these, 13 were rated 107 plus while the last 8 with a rating were rated 110 +
4 yo's have won 7 renewals from 57 runners for a 12% strike rate.
3 yo's (2/12 or 17%) and 6yo's (4/21 or 19%) have the best strike rates but from lower samples. However all between 3 and 7 have at least a 9% wins to runs ratio.
No horse above 7 has won this over the period
16 had between 1 and 8 runs in the last year with 14 having a maximumm of 6 runs.
Only 10 were distance winners but ALL had had a run over a mile plus.
15/17 posted a first 5 run last time out.
Trainers and jockeys
It looks ike Tullius, Baltic Knight and Graphic are non runners so i will ignore any stats for these.
Adam Kirby has a 7/17 strike rate for Charle Appleby who runs Long John. However, this horse finished 6th last time.
Fergus Sweeney is 2/4 for Seamus Durack who runs The Rectifier – a 20/1 shot with an atypical profile for this.
If we begin with the first 5 in the betting, we can discard Mull of Killough right away on the age stats (an 8yo). Long John can also go to as he doesn't meet the first 5 place last time out. This leaves us with 3: Guest of Honour, Highland Knight and Producer.
Highland Knight has had 9 runs in the past year therefore just 2 fit the profile to win this. I am going to opt for Marco Botti's second fav, GUEST OF HONOUR, who, even allowing for the 3 non runners, is now 7/2 from 6/1 first show and when the oney is down for this yard it is well worth a second look!