I have ‘borrowed’ the quote below from a recent blog by Kieran at Make Your Betting Pay. I will put the link at the bottom of this blog for the full article. It is so useful, especially the table, and uses such a scientific approach, that i have used about half the blog below.
“We need to strike the right balance between leveraging our profits and protecting the integrity of our bank.
My usual starting point when carrying out this kind of analysis would be to calculate the longest expected losing run over 1000 bets. There is a formula for calculating this (mail me if you’re interested) but I tend to use a table which makes life a lot easier. I’ve reproduced the table below (it’s accurate enough for our purposes)
The important thing to remember here is that the larger the number of bets you look at, the longer the likely losing run will be. As an example with a 15% strike rate looked at over 1000 bets you are likely to hit a maximum losing run of 43 bets. However, if you were to have 10,000 bets with a similar strike rate, at some point you are likely to hit a losing run of 57 bets. That being the case, it’s useful to have a reasonable idea of the number of bets your selection method is going to throw up over a period of time. If you are looking at a method that throws up 300 bets a year then calculating your longest likely losing run over 1000 bets is ample. If you are looking at a method that throws up 10,000 bets a year, you need to dig a bit deeper than that.
Let’s assume the method we are analysing has 1000 bets a year with a strike rate of 60%. We can see from the table that we are likely to hit 8 consecutive losers at some point during year 1.
You can see that if we were to choose a 10% staking plan on such a method, we are almost certain to hit trouble and quite possibly decimate our bank at some point.
We therefore need our bank to be several times the size of our longest likely losing run – it is well within the realms of statistical possibility that we could get 2 such runs in quick succession!
For safety, I would say it is best to work with your bank broken down into a number of points that equates to 5 times your longest likely losing sequence.”
I think 5 times the maximum losing run is on the conservative side. A lot depends on what sort of start you get. If you’re off to a flyer, by the time the inevitable ‘crippler’ comes along you should have taken out more than enough profit to set up a new bank and won’t care. If you start on the bad run your faith in the system/method/tipster etc is shaken and you would probably abandon what may be a good thing. What is often forgotten though is that with percentage staking the stakes go down during losing runs so a losing run of ten wouldn’t be ten points lost but considerably less.
I heartily agree with everything else though. There is no doubt that basing your staking on avoiding one long losing run is folly as it is more common that a series of losing runs is the bank breaker. Therefore it is wise to allow for this.
The debate will rage on but, in the end, we are back to another grossly underestimated factor in betting – psychology. Some thrive on risk others prefer the more softly softly ” I don’t need the stress as I would like to live to spend the winnings” approach. There is no “wrong” nor “right” way, (try telling the Frankie Dettori backers that day at Ascot that they were throwing their money away backing 7 horse accas!). Granted, the same people could do a £1 acca 7 every day for the rest of their lives and lose every day. But they wouldn’t be complaining as the stakes would come out of the massive interest on their winnings!
There again though, if you are backing seriously, you have to work on the basis of probability and not possibility so it is a question of finding the optimum. For those who shun risk it will be five times the max or more. For those who thrive on it, maybe twice the max and for those who are trying to strike a happy medium, 2-4 times the max.
Whatever your appetite for risk, the table above offers a basis for making an informed choice. You can’t say you weren’t warned!
Here’s the link to Kieran’s site: http://makeyourbettingpay.co.uk/ . You will find the whole blog on there dated 18/1/12.
CHL 2.00 CAVIAR GOLD CUP
Fav 1 out of last 15, second fav once and third fav 6 times!
Returned 9/1 or less 12/15
None of the last 15 carried more than 11-8
133 to 163 means all bar the bottom weight are comfortably within the range.
6 and 7 yo's have domlnated with the former winning 5 from 34 (15%) and the latter winning 6-50 (12%). 8yo's are about half as likely to win with 3 from 49 wins (6%).
No horse older than 8 won in this period.
The record of 5yo's is 0-9.
14/15 ran between 4 to 9 times in the past year.
ALL had ran that season between 1 and 3 times – 9 had two runs.
5 won, 5 finished second and three third last time out. All posted a first 5 run on their latest start.
13 had run between 18 and 30 days ago.
12 had already won at two and a half miles plus, with three winning over 3 miles.
Paul Nicholls has had 12/39 winners this past fortnight and he runs the fav, Caid Du Berlais. This last time Paddy Power winner is not a trends horse with the age, weight and record of favs against him.
AP McCoy is 17/30 for Kim Bailey over the last two years. He rides Darna who, with just one (winning) run in the last 2 years is too lightly raced on trends.
9/1 or less, ( third fav), two runs, a 6 YO that won over two and a half miles last time, 15 days ago, is an ideal profile for this and the trends selections is NO BUTS.
SANDOWN 3.00 THE TINGLE CREEK
We have been spoilt this last 11 years with some of the finest 2 mile chasers in history winning this. Moscow Flyer in 2003 and 2004, Kauto Star 2005 and 2006 (yes, that's right, a multiple gold Cup winner with the speed to win this twice!), Twist Magic and Master Minded won it twice each with a win each from Sizing Europe and Sprinter Sacre.
Add to the above Flagshipe Uberalles 3 consecutive wins between 1999 and 2001 and Sire de Grugy's emphatic win last season and I think only Cenkos could be classified as not one of the greats in the past 15 runnings.
However, with the absence of Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy, today's race doesn t look like anythng special and any one of the past 15 winners would have probably won this – though you never know. Flagship Uberalles, Kauto Star, Master Minded and Twist Magic (all Paul Nicholls trained 5 yo's) burst onto the scene in this race so it is possible something from last years novice ranks could improve.
Here are the stats but do bear in mind that the superstars mentioned above may have skewed the stats this past 15 years in regard to favs and ratings. This race looks the most open since Twist Magic's first victory in 2007.
No less than 9 favs have obliged in the last 17 runnings along with three second favs.
One 7/1 shot won with two 6/1's. All the rest were returned 5/1 or less.
15/17 were from the first 3 in the betting.
All carried 11-7 so no winning mares (I don't know how many have tried)
Although Direct Route won this off 147 only the one-off that is Kauto Star won this off a mark of 150 or less since, when taking the first of his two Tingle Creeks. All the rest had ratings of at least 156 (7 of the last 8 were rated 167 plus – that has been the level of class needed to win this in the near past). So, 156+ 15/17.
5 yo's stand out with an impressive 4/13 or 31%. All were trained by P Nicolls.
6 and 7 yo's are next best with 3-17 (18%) and 5-23 (22%) respectively.
Only one 10 yo, Moscow Flyer in his second victory, has won this from only 12 to try (8%)
8 and 9 yo's have won twice each from 22 and 29 attempts respectively. Strike rates of 7 and 9%.
12 had run this season, 11 of which had one or two runs – the latter scoring 5 times from 30 to try.
Don't be put off seasonal debutants though as they have a better wins to runs ratio in that they have provided 5 of the winners from just 19 runners.
All had run between 3-6 times in the preceding year.
16 had won over further than todays 2 miles trip. Ok, 7 had won at between 2m half a furlong and 2m 1f, but 6 had won at 2m 2f and beyond with one winning over 3 miles. So your horse needs to stay, particularly in this ground, which going off yesterdays race times, is Heavy.
14/17 were distance winners.
8 won last time, five were second and 2 pulled up. The other two finished 3rd and 4th. So, all 15 to complete had a first 4 finish with 13 coming home first or second last time.
First port of call has to be the bang in form Nicholls yard with 13 of his 46 runners winning in the last fortnight. He runs Dodging Bullets, last years Arkle 4th who should come on for his debut third, but a third place run last time out is not typical, other than that he has a good profile.
His other runner, Hinterland, looks held by his stablemate on a line through Grandouet but, oddly enough, a pulled up last time has a much better record (in fact the best of all) than a third last time, with 2 winning from just 3 to try. Also, interestingly, Noel Fehily has a 7/25 record for Nicholls over the last 2 years.
Another in form stable is Colin Tizzard's with 8-23 in the last 14 days. He runs Third Intention who has a rating of 151 and, on what he has shown so far, doesn't look goood enough. Having said that, he does look stamina laden with an excellent second to Captain Conan here over 2m 4.5 in a G1 in Feb 2013 and having won over two and a half miles. He couldn't have won his seasonal debut 2m, 4-runner listed race more easily, but what did he beat? Forecast 16/1 it wouldn't surprise me if he ran a really big race. But he is not a trends horse.
Harry Fry's runners have won 5 of their 13 runs the past two weeks. He runs a possible dark horse in Vukovar. This one is the ideal age, he has won over further and that in a bog. However, his rating is below the norm and that is not surprising as the highest grade he has won at was a class 3 Novice chase. A last run 7th is unheard of too in the last 17 renewals. In his favour, the trainer was a protege of Paul Nicholls – the only one in the period we are reviewing to train a 5 yo winner – so he may know what it takes.
Barry Geraghty has an impressive 108/392 (28%) for Nicky Henderson and he rides Oscar Whisky, a 9 yo who, if this were a hurdle race, would probably be fav. But his jumping has been such that he is 8/1. He jumped better and ran well for a long way in the Paddy Power but will his jumping hold up at this 2 mile chase speed?
Richard Johnson is 12/30 for Alan King this past 2 years. He rides Forecast fav, but now drifting second fav, Balder Success. He has an excellent profile and is shortlisted.
The trends narrow it down to 2, old rivals Balder Success and God's Own.
The latter, a Grade 1 winner, has never encountered ground like todays heavy going? He seemed to relish a stamina test when staying on well in second last season when just over a length behind old rival Balder Success over two and a half miles at Kempton in a Grade 2. He received 7lbs that day but has improved 10 lbs on RPR's running over shorter trips in his last 2 runs and is unbeaten this season.
BALDER SUCCESS is also a Grade 1 winner. He is 2-1 down to God's Own but has a 7 lbs pull for the 5 lengths he was beaten in the best trial for this race at Exeter last run. It looks a toss up but, although in lower company, Balder Success is 2/5 on soft to heavy going (unseated on one of the losing runs), he likes this going, and secondly we have the jockey stat. He looks like he will relish a slog through the mud just that bit better than his main market rival.
It could be close but he is my win selection. Anyone fancying an each way flutter could do worse than bet on substantial improvement from Third Intention.
Favs won 6 of the last 17 and second favs won . So good for top of the market with 10/17 ;
There has been one 25/1 winner and one 20/1. The other 15 were all returned 16/1 or less.
The first 7 in the betting have won 14.
10-00 to 11-12 have won this. Three carried 11-12 but the great Denman accounts for two of these. If you take him out, only Trabolgan, the other 11-12 winner, carried more than 11-8 and Suny Bay, way back in 1997, was the only other horse to carry more than 11-6.
All are within the ratings band but 15 were running off 139 or more.
6 to 9 yo's have dominate this with 6 and 7 yo's winning 12 renewals between them and having double the strike rate of the 8 and 9 yo's
5 yo's are 0-5
All ran between 1 and 6 times in the previous year
7 were making their seasonal debut
7 had just the one run but the other 3 to have run that season had up to 4 runs
9 won last time, 2 were second and 3 finished third
16 had won over at least 3 miles.
Only 3 had won over further than todays trip of 3m 2.5f
Only 1 was a distance winner.
No horse has won this back to back on the last 17 runnings and only the great Denman won it more than once in 2007 and 2009 – the only distance winner.
Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins are the two men in form with, in the past 2 weeks, 13/43 winners for the former and 22/50 for the latter.
Nicholls runs Rocky Creek, an 8 yo carrying 11-11 and Unioniste, a 6 yo without a first 3 finish last time.
Mullins has the 5 yo fav, Djakadam that fell last time. Only 1 of the last 17 winners failed to complete last time.
Barry Gerraghty has a 28% strike rate for Nicky Henderson and he rides last years winner, Trio d'Alene. Pulled up last time, trying to carry 11-12 and attempting to be the only horse other than Denman to win this twice makes it hard to make a trends case for this one.
Noel Fehily had a 7/25 strike rate for Nicholls but Unioniste could only manage an 8th place last run.
Ruby Walsh as an amazing 37% win record when riding for Mullins. Djakadams' was discussed above.
The percentage call here is a 6 or 7 yo from the first 7 in the betting that has won over 3 miles or more and posted a first 3 finish last time.
Amazingly this leaves us with a short list of one – THE DRUIDS NEPHEW.
I liked the look of Many Clouds but he falls down on a crucial trend – he has not won over any further than two and a half miles. Only 1 had such a profile the past 17 renewals.
The other that caught my eye was bottom weight Merry King with Tonly McCoy on board. He must be right near his minimum weight for this ride but the horse falls down on the same trend as Many Clouds, though he ran a cracker when beaten just 6.5 lengths in a 56K handicap at Ascot over 3 miles last time, staying on one paced as though this trip might just suit. His rating of 138 is typically below the level needed to win this too, with just 2 running off a mark lower than 139. The jockey booking is eye catching and Jonjo is the maestro at winning these big staying handicap chases (though neither has won this? from memory). I am tempted to have a small each way bet but THE DRUIDS NEPHEW is the clear trends selection.
The trends are a little skewed by the fact that this race was won by the great Kauto Star 4 times. It should have been 5 as he was unlucky and almost certainly would have won had he not unseated Ruby Walsh at the last when 33/1 shock Snoopy Loopy took this in 2008.
There have only been 9 runnings so this won't be the most reliable of trends races. However, lets have a look and see how much the trends help.
Fav won 4 of the 9 runnings – Kauto Star accounted for 3 of the 4. therefore only 1 of the other 5 favs won.
The second fav won just once.
Other than the 33/1 surprise a 9/1 and 8/1 have taken this.
7-9 were from the first 3 in the betting.
All except the 33/1 shock were rated 162 plus.
As you would expect, Kauto Star skews these stats too having won at 6, 7, 9 & 11.
Of the ages represented today, 7 and 9 yo's (one each for Kauto) have the best record with 2 wins each from 14 and 15 runners respectively. 8 yo' are 1-19
4 plus runs in the past year
Only 2 were making their seasonal debut from 25 to try, whereas 5 of the 24 had just the one run between 16 and 30 days ago.
7 had won over further and 6 had won over 3m 2.5F Kauto Star accounted for two of these)
Only 3 were distance winners and all of these were multiple 3 mile winners.
7 had won over 3 miles or further.
3 won last time, 2 were second and 1 third. The other two unseated rider and pulled up. All those that completed last time finished in the first 3.
The Nicholls steamroller continues, taking 16 winners from 56 runners the past fortnight. His Silviano Conti is fav but an 8 yo that finished outside the first three last time isn't optimal.
Colin Tizzard's record at Haydock is 6-19 but his Cue Card falls down on the same trend.
Barry Geraghty has a great record for Jonjo O'Neill, 5-10, and rides Taquin Du Soleil. This one falls down on a lack of winning form beyond 2 m 5f and, of less concern, more than one run this season.
Of those from the first three in the betting and those priced 9/1 or less, only MENORAH ticks all the boxes. Up until his Charlie Hall Chase win over 3m 1f last time, i had him down as a none stayer. But this was a fast run affair (4.9 secs quicker than standard) and none stayers don't win races like that. He will encounter quite different ground today but he ran only 4lbs below his RPR best when winning a 2m 4.5f Grade 2 chase at Kempton a couple of years ago on Heavy.
A look at yesterdays times at Haydock show the better races with times more like those for races run on Good and, though there was reportedly 12 mm of rain overnight, only showers are forecast today and i doubt it will ride any slower then the Soft side of Good to Soft at worse (unless the weather forecast is wrong!). So I am not too worried about the selection getting the trip again under the prevailing conditions.
However, he is not a typical multiple 3 miles plus winner nor has he won over the Gold Cup distance (though three of those were Kauto Star), so he is a tentative rather than confident selection.
5 of the last 17 favs won and 4 second favs.
There has been one 33/1 shock but all the rest were returned 14/1 or less – 15 at 12/1or lower.
All were from the first 10 in the betting and 15 were from the first 7.
Four have carried 11-12 to victory so a big weight has been no problem. Those at the bottom of the weights haven't fared so well though, with only 2 (none in the last 13 runnings) carrying less than 10-5.
Similar to the weights. No problem at the top but all were rated 124 plus and 16 ran off a mark of 129 or more.
4, 5 and 6 yo's have dominated this winning 15 of the 17 runnings between them. Of these, 5 yo's have by far the best record with 8 wins from 75 runners (11%)
15 had a maximum of 7 runs in the last year.
7 were making their seasonal debut and another 7 had just the one run. One had already had 9 runs so don't let that put you off Exitas too much!
Similar to the Paddy Power Chase, 10 had won over further – up to 2 miles 4 furlongs.
15 posted a top 5 run last time of which 7 won and 4 finished second.
The Nicholls yard goes from strength to strength, as we saw on TV today. They have had 16 winners from 48 runners in the last fortnight. Pearl Swan has nothing like the typical profile for this though and nor does his other runner, Katgary.
The same can be said for John Ferguson's, (6/14 winners last 14 days) pair.
Willie Mullins has had 10 wins from 31 runs this past two weeks. He has brought the seemingly well handicapped Clondaw Warrior over. But this 7yo has the low weights jinx to overcome.
Tom George (7/20 won in last 14 days) runs Olofi who is older than the usual age at 8 and unseated when last seen on his only run last season.
Phil Middleton has only had 2 runners in the last 14 days 1 of which won. That winner was Exitas who didn't seem to have a hard race when winning 8 days ago and looks one for the shortlist.
David Dennis has only had one runner at the course and it won. That was Roman Flight who he runs tomorrow. Currently 16/1, he is just a tad longer priced than the typical winner of this, but, if he were to be backed a little, he would be worth a second look.
Barry Geraghty is 28% for Nicky Henderson over the past 2 years and rides the fav, Vaniteux, a 5yo with an almost ideal profile.
Strictly on trends, there are three 5 yo's from the first 7 in the betting on the shortlist.
Vaniteux's close third behind Vatour in the Grade 1 Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is the best form on show – that is why he has top weight. He has also shown his stamina by winning a 2m 3.5 f £3K novice at Doncaster. The problem is he has had 3 runs (including 2 point to points) on soft going and ran at least a stone below his best on all 3 occasions. Add that to his 250 days off and top weight and I have enough doubts to think 7/2 is skinny odds.
Looking at todays race times, the course isn't riding like the bog they are making out – though the ground is definitely soft. Todays action seemed to show fitness to be an advantage. So, i reluctantly pass over the Nicholls horse.
GARDE LA VICTOIRE was taken off his feet in the Supreme Novice which was won in a time 4.6 seconds faster than standard – on good to soft! He later went on to score in two decent novice hurdles around two and a half miles – one here. He ran a cracker over a sharp 2m 1f £25K handicap hurdle at Aintree on ground that would have been too fast over such a trip on such ground, but stayed on well to finish 3rd on his seasonal debut. On genuinely soft ground and back on a testing track this should bring his stamina and fitness to the fore and, hopefully, the trip will suit in these conditions.
No ground concerns for BALTIMORE ROCK who seems to relish these confitions. On a line through Supreme Novice Hurdle runner up, Josses Hill, he is very closely weighted with Garde La Victoire. Fitness shouldn't be too big a worry for an inmate of the Pipe yard.
A 33/1 and a 20/1 shot have won in the past 17 renewals, but the rest were returned 16/1 or less.
16 were from the first 8 in the betting and 13 from the first 3.
Favs have a good record with 6 wins but second favs not too good with just 2 wins.
All carried between 10-2 and 11-9
All were rated 139 +
16 were rated 154 or less .
6 & 7 yo's have won 4-42 and 7-70 respectively, ie they each have a 10% strike rate.This is around double the wins to runs ratios of 5, 8 and 9 yo's. No horse older than 9 has won over this period.
There have been no back to back winners, (John's Sprit supporters take note), in the past 17 renewals though Cyfor Malta won it twice in 1998 and 2002. However, he was trained by the all conquering (in this race) Pipe family who have won this 7 times in the last 17 runnings – 6 times by Martin and just the once since 2005 by David.
All had run at least once in the previous year and 15 had at least 4 runs.
9 were making their seasonal debut and, of the 8 to have run. none ran more than twice that season, 6 had just the one run and 2 had two.
Underlining the emphasis, in this race, on stamina, no less than 11 had won over further at distances up to 3m 1.5 furlongs.
Only one had failed to win at 2m 4f plus.
8 won their last race while 13 had finished in the first 4 on their last run.
All of the 15 to complete last time (2 pulled up) had posted a first 8 finish last time.
Paul Nicholls yard has struck form just in time and his sole runner is the highly regarded Caid du Berlais. He would qualify on most counts except that 5 isn't the ideal age (only the 150 rated dual winner Cyfor Malta has achieved that feat – Martin Pipe again!). Also he has not won over further than 2m 3.5f.
Barry Geraghty is in cracking form and has rode 112 winners from 400 rides for Nicky Henderson in the past 2 years. He rides Oscar Whiskey who would need to break the weight carrying record (Cyfor Mata's second win in 2002 off an OR of 154) in the past 17 runnings.
There are two 6 or 7 yo's with a perfect profile and one just one filter short:
Buywise is well in at the weights but will need to greatly improve his jumping to win this. He has drifted from 6/1 joint fav to 15/2 second fav this morning (having been backed overnight) which, given the record of second favs, is hardly inspiriing either.
There are no such worries about PRESENT VIEW, who had Buywise (improved 13 lbs on RPR since) 7 lengths behind in a 34K Novice Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. On only his sixth chase start there is no reason to suppose he has reached his peak either and he jumps a lot better than Buywise on all past evidence. He is presently 13/2 fav which, given the good record of favs, is encouraging.
Again, i am going to go in double handed, as last week when we got the winner, with a horse who only falls down on the first 4 finish last time filter. However, he is within the first 8 limit and ticks all the other boxes – not least on stamina!
INDIAN CASTLE is not obviously well handicapped running off 140 having looked booked for 3rd in the 3m 1.5f Kim Muir Chase at the Festival before blundering badly at the last when running off 130. Earler having won over 3m 1f at Wetherby, he won here over 2m 5f on genuinely soft to heavy going before flopping when 7/2 Fav on faster ground in the above race. He has changed yards from Donald McCain to Ian Williams since and this is his first run for the yard.
Currently a steady 10/1 third fav gives hope too.
DON 3.35 – NOVEMBER HANDICAP
Other than a 50/1 shock and a 25/1 winner, none were priced above 20/1
Favs have a terrible record with no winners at all from the last 17 runnings.
Second favs, however, have an above par record of 5/17 and the winner has come from the first 8 in the betting 13/17 times.
Not many clues here with all within the range. Only 1 carried more than 9-6 though.
Corresponds with weight stats with only one winner running off a three figure handicap rating.
3 yo's have a significant edge with 6 wins from 86 runners (7%) whereas 4, 5 & 6yo's have a 4 to 5 % strike rate.
No winner was older than 6.
16/17 had 4 runs plus that season.
16/17 won between 10 and 12.5 furlongs.
10/17 were distance winners.
Only one had won beyond 12.5 furlongs.
All ran between 8 and 60 days ago.
13/17 finished in the first 4 last time out.
Rae Guest's yard is flying at present and he runs a horse with an almost ideal profile, Headline News, (backed from 20/1 to 12/1 this morning!)
Ismael Mohammed has a 3/8 strike rate at the course and runs Rhombus who lacks the typical first 4 last time out finish. However, Martin Harley has a 5/17 record here for the trainer, and so, on trainer and jockey stats alone, is worth a second look.
David Lanigan is 7/19 at Donny but his Plutocracy is too lightly raced to be a typical winner.
Those with a perfect profile are:- Mount Logan, Farquhar, and Late Night Request, all of which are 3 yo's.
If we include the older horses we have another three:- Dashing Star, Open Eagle and Headline News.
Only one horse has won this in the last 17 renewals having run 7 days or less ago. Then again, only 10 have tried, giving that days since run band the highest strike rate of all. So, Saturday handicap king, David O'Meara ,turning out OPEN EAGLE just 4 days after a win doesn't put me off at all.
I am going to take that one and HEADLINE NEWS as my two against the field. The form of the yard (very few yards are anywhere near peak at this stage of the flat season), and the money for it this morning, makes it irresistible.
However, remember this is a wide open race and the 3 yo's, with, it must be said, slightly better trends profiles, that i mentioned earlier, could be big dangers, so stake accordingly!
The fav has won over par at 8/1 and 15/17 were returned 8/1 or less.
None had been off the course more than 60 days.
10 won their last race.
PORTAMENTO is the obvious trends choice.
NBY 2.20 ST SIMON STAKES
All bar one were returned 17/2 or less which narrows it down to the first five in the betting;
2 of those 5 are excluded on weight grounds as none of the last 17 winners carried more than 9-3;
15/17 had between 2 and 5 runs which knocks out Emerahldz leaving us with two: the 5 yo Open Eagle and the 3 yo RUWASI who gets the nod on account of 3 yo's having an 18% wins to runs ratio – twice as good as any other age.
All carried no more than 9-3 and all bar one carried 8-7 plus.
All bar one were rated 97 or less.
This alone narrows it down to 3 of which one has run just 4 times this season (all had at least 5 runs previously that season).
This leaves us with just two: Dungannon and the 3 yo GOLDEN STEPS who i will pick on the basis of the fact that no 7 yo has won whereas 3 yo's have the second best record in this race.
DON 3.50 – RACING POST TROPHY
10 of the last 17 were favs and 10 won last time. 12 had already run over a mile. This points to current fav ELM PARK.
However, i noticed that Bet 365 are trying to 'get' him. But the 3/1 they were offering has been snapped up and he is into 5/2 with AP O'Brien's Jacobean 10/3 second fav.
O'Brien has farmed this race, taking it 7 times in the last 17 runnings and the record of once raced contenders is interesting with the only such horse trying – and winning, albeit at 5/6.
He hasn't run over a mile but was doing all his best work at the end in a 9K 7 furlong maiden at the Curragh. Should the money come, it would be worth a long second look at this one:
NKT 3.50 THE CESAREWITCH
Only one fav and two second favs have landed this in the last 17 runnings.
Plenty of shocks recently with winners at 66/1 twice, 50/1 & 25/1 – all from the last 6 runnings.
One carried 9-10, sixteen 9-5 or less and 15 hauled 9-4 minus.
All are within the ratings band but 16 were rated 83 plus and 15 were rated 98 or less.
All ages (bar 10) have won this but two stand out – 3yo's and 5 yo's who have around triple the strike rates of the other ages that have any meaningful stats. The former have produced 2 winners from just 36 runners (6%), and the latter 5 winners from 100, in the last 17 renewals.
15 had 5 plus runs in the past year – not a great stat for fav Quick Jack. Only 3 had run more than 3 times in the past year.
15 had between 2 and 7 runs that season.
Crucially, for me, none had won over less than 1 mile four and a half furlongs but, even more interesting, no less than 15 had already won over at least 2 miles.
15 posted a first 5 finish last time.
Only one significant stat on this score today and that is the form of the Chapple-Hyam yard who have had 5 winners from 16 runners in the past fortnight.
There is just one horse that meets all the requirements and that is NOBLE SILK, currently 20/1. Strictly speaking, he is the trends selection.
However, GROOVEJET, the only 3yo in the race, fails on only one score – not winning over 2miles plus. Given her age and the fact she has never tried a trip beyond 1 mile six and a half furlongs before this is no great surprise.
Second in a Group 2 last time at Doncaster, over the same course and distance which two days later subsequent Arc 4th, Kingston Hill would win the St Leger, she caught a tartar in Silk Sari when beaten 5 lengths.
But it was the time that caught the eye. That race was won in a time just 0.31 secs slower than the truly run St Leger a couple of days later. That would have put her thereabouts in a Group 1 and, staying on well that day and achieving her best ever RPR, she should stand a good chance of getting this near half mile longer trip. The latter is the only drawback but a Group 1 or 2 class horse running off 96 in a handicap?
Add to all that the form of the yard and she surely can't be missed.
PS, i am surely allowed two selections in a 36 runner race
I make no apologies for reproducing this table from last year nor the trends up until then as the three years since have proved my thesis – that the official goings don't even resemble the reality according to the race times.
Danedream broke the trends in 2011 but the prediction about the going was spot on. Every man and his dog was saying it was Good to Soft, the course had been watered etc. Even now, the record of the race in the Racing Post says the official going was Good. This in a race that was run in course record time of 2 minutes 24.49 seconds, 6.01 seconds faster than the Racing Post standard! Course records don't get broken on Good going and what you have to remember is the french going is one below ours. So, eg 2011's was officially " Good" , this would be Good to Firm in the UK.
In 2012 Solemia, as a 4yo filly, and a 33/1 shot was yet another trends buster. Again though, the going was described as "Heavy" when the time of the race was 7.18 seconds slower than standard which, if you divide by the number of furlongs of the race, means the race was run in a time slower than Racing Post Standard by 0.6 seconds per furlong .- a time indicating ground nearer to Good than to Soft going.
Last year Treve won in a time about one and a half seconds slower, (0.1 secs per furlong), than Racing Post standard on officially Soft going!!
This year they are saying Good going . If we discount as above, this is going that would be called Good to Firm in the UK but even that underestimates how fast the ground will be. We live in Brittany which isn't too far South of Paris and have been walking round in shorts and t-shirts the last couple of weeks.
Do NOT be put away by false going reports
Conventional wisdom is that because the Arc is a back end of the season race run in Autumn it is generally run on softish ground.
This is not what the clock tells us.
Race record time = 2:24.6 Danedream 2m 24.49 secs in 2011 on "Good"
Racing Post Standard time for the course and distance = 2:30.5
5 out of the last 10 winners (all these figures are from the table up to 2010 above but they have been confirmed in the three subsequent Arcs too) ran within 2 secs of the course record
8 out of the 10 won in faster time than Racing Post standard
This is in a period when not once has the word firm appeared in the going description!
Bago in 2004 won in a time 5.5 seconds below standard time on “GOOD” going!
Sea the Stars ran 4.2 seconds below standard time, again on “GOOD”.
These were great horses and in the latter case, all time great, but to run such times on good ground?
Conversely, the three slowest times in the races shown in the table were Sakhee in 2001 who won in a time 5.6 seconds below standard on holding ground, Workforce slow by 4.8 seconds in 2012 on going described as Very soft and we have discussed the case of Solemia above.
If we take Workforce’s time and divide the 4.8 seconds above standard by the number of furlongs, 12, we get a figure of slow by .48 seconds per furlong. The Racing Post would define that as good ground.
All other times, ie, 8 of the last 10, would be defined by the time adjusted Racing Post going, (not the official going before the race but the adjusted going once the day’s race times are known), as Firm! The slowest of these 8 was in 2003 when Dalakhani won in a time 1.8 seconds slower thaN standard. Again, divide this extra by 12 furlongs = slow by 0.15 seconds per furlong – Firm. The remainder are all faster than standard time and by definition that means Firm
I think a few things are illustrated by these times:
This, unlike many French races, is run at a frantic pace from start to finish and your pick has to stay the trip.
For all the talk of the big fields and the rough race, (both true), the best horse tends to win as is shown by the record of the first 4 in the betting. Look at the star studded list above, nearly all Derby winners in France, Ireland and/or UK. These are horses that have won classics on midsummer ground .
Your selection needs a turn of foot. For all the bumping and barging the field is usually strung out enough for the gaps to appear by 2 furlongs out, if your horse has the gears to take these gaps.
Look back over the list of the 20 winners above. It is chock full of winners of the various Derbies and other midsummer fast ground races. These were not horses that needed a slog through the mud!
The fact that you see such scintillating finishes supports my view that the going is faster than the official version. Longchamp wouldn’t get such big fields if the word firm appeared in the description – as we are seeing again this year!
MAIN RACE TRENDS
The last three runnings have been trends busters in one way or the other with two fillies winning and a 33/1 shot. This could be the beginning of a new trend because of the fillies weight allowance but i am betting that the pre 2011 trends will re-assert themselves on Sunday. Below are the race trends which correspond to the last 10 years of the above time period in the table to 2010.
- 3yo who won a group 1 as a 2yo (or was unbeaten at 2)
- Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7
- Won last time out in last 50 days
- Won a group 1 race worth 190K+
- Won over 1M 4F
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Having first start in the race
- Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel and/or Judmonte Int’l
- Irish Champion Stakes or Grand Prix de Paris winner
- From first 4 in the betting
- Trained by Fabre, Pease, Bin Suroor or de Royer-Dupre
- Drawn in bottom half of the stalls
- Hold-up horse
This has not been a great race for 5yo's, though, to be fair, not many have tried. There has only been one winner in past 22 years we are looking at and that was the outsider Marienbard with that master of the Arc, Frankie Dettori, (3 Arc wins) onboard.
Essentially the ideal horse, over the long term, has been an unbeaten (or near enough) 3YO colt from the first 4 in the betting with a first 3 run in the best trial, The Prix Niel.
The stand out trends horse is ECTOT.
Having beaten the subsequent French 200 Guineas winner here over a mile in April, he overcame the 5 month lay off and the half mile jump up in trip to prevail by a neck in the best trial, the Prix Niel.
He looked to have hit the front plenty soon enough and would have needed the run. Despite this he won by half a second better than the two other Arc trials that day.
It is interesting that Gergory Benoist has chosen this one over the French Oaks winner Avenir Certain, the only other unbeaten one in the race and the main danger in my opinion.
If Treve was back to her brilliant best she would win. I have backed her every time this season so she will probably win when not carrying my money tomorrow! However, my theory is she has a niggling injury which makes her duck right when the pressure is really on and you don't get much more pressure than in the Arc! I can see her placing though, such is her class.
The other one i must mention is last years selection and Derby winner Ruler of the World, who has the ability and seems to be peaking at just the right time. The ground should suit as well.