SATURDAY 19/10/19

ASCOT 1.35

CHAMPIONS SPRINT CUP

GROUP 1

LAST 22 WINNERS

Market

5 favs won and 4 second favs

18 former winners came from the first 5 in the betting

Winners at 28/1 & 20/1 but the remaining 20 were 12/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-9 to 9-4

20 carried 8-12+

21 (including  all  the last 19) carried 9-2  or less

Official Rating

18 had an OR and all of them were rated 100+

17 of the 18 had an OR of 107+

Age

ALL aged 3-6

3 & 4yo’s have a 12% strike rate with 8-7 & 9-83 respectively

5yo’s are 4-57 (7%)

6yo’s have a poor record with 1-46 (2%)

Profile

ALL ran 3-9 times in the last year

21 ran 3-7 times that season

21 finished in the first 5 last time

6 won and 7 were second last run

ALL had won 6F+

20 were distance winners

ALL last ran 1-120 days ago

DRAW

No discernible advantage

Best Trial

The HAYDOCK SPRINT CUP has provided 8 winners

HELLO YOUMZAIN beat the THE TIN MAN half a length.

BRANDO was a further 2L back in 4th  

Trainers

James Fanshawe has won this twice from 14 runners

CONCLUSION

If we take those from the  first 8 in the betting and priced 12/1 or less, who ran less  than 3-7 times  this season  and 3-9   times in the past year while finishing in the  first 5 last time.

Given that 3  and 4 year olds  have won 17 of the last 22 runnings,  with a 12% strike rate compared  to 7%  for 5yo’s, we will  concentrate on these.

This leaves:

Shortlist:

ADVERTISE

HELLO YOUMZAIN

SELECTION

I will be surprised if modern Ascot’s excellent draining  course  rides Heavy  tomorrow.

1 point each way HELLO YOUMZAIN @ 5/1 @ Bet365

HELLO YOUMZAIN is a winner on Soft, was 2.5L third behind ADVERTISE in  the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot over C/D (much faster  ground), and, most importantly, won  by far the best trial.

The former is the selection with the latter (unproven on anything slower than Good   to Soft) the danger.

SATURDAY  19/10/19

ASCOT 3.20

QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

This is a traditional race and has been run under the same name, as a Group 1 race, for a long time – certainly covering all the period we are examining. Qipco started sponsoring it in 2011, the first Ascot Champions Day when, fittingly, Frankel won this race.

Market

10 favs won but no second favs. However 8 third favs won!

Therefore 18 came from the first 3 in the betting –  but NO second  favs!

There was 33/1 winner in 2001 and a 14/1 winner in 2000. Since then the highest priced winner was 8/1 (though there was a 9/1 winner back in 1997).

Therefore 18 past winners were returned  9/1 or less and ALL the last 15 had SPs of 8/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-12 to 9-4. The basic weights seem to have changed over the years therefore I will not look into this any further as it is no guide to this renewal.

Official Rating (OR)

Of the 19 with an OR ALL were rated 113+ 

Since 2011 and Qipco sponsorship, all  bar one    of the last 6 had an OR  of 120+

Age

3yo’s and 5yo’s have dominated

3yo’s have won 14 times from 97 runners (14%)

5yo’s are 5-26 (19%)

4yo’s are just 3-50 (6%)

Older horses are 0-20

Profile

20 had 1-6 runs in the last year

21 ran 1-6 times that season

21 finished in the first 7 last time

8 won and 6 were second last time

19 had won over 7F+

16 had won over 1 mile plus

21 had run over 1m+

ALL had their last run 16-365 days ago

DRAW

10 winners came from  the 3 widest drawn horses.

Best Trials

The G2 Celebration Mile has provided 5 winners

HAPPY POWER  was beaten just  under a length  third.

5 winners came from the G1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood

The Irish Champion Stakes produced 4 winners.

Trainers/Connections.Jockeys

AP O’Brien has won this 4 times.

Saeed bin Suroor has also won this 4 times (as has Godolphin)

John Gosden has won this four  times  too.

Donnacha O’Brien is 140-503 for his Dad, Aidan

Oisin Murphy is 33-109 for Saeed bin Suroor

Jim Crowley is 9-29 for Marcus Tregoning

CONCLUSION

This is a lot trickier than the sprint trends! The following 4 fit the trends.

Shortlist:

BENBATI has a perfect trends profile and, and, as a 5yo, represents the age with easily the best strike rate.

Never won above G2 but was impressive when winning a G2 last time – beating the St James’s Palace Stakes neck runner-up, KING OF COMEDY by 5L.

MAGNA GRECIA is not only the only UK G1 winner from the quartet, but a classic winner in that he won the 2000 Guineas

Flopped in the Irish Guineas next time but has been off since, which suggests a problem.

A 3yo (second best on strike rate and 13 wins in this) , he is trained by one of the co top 3 trainers in this race – the maestro Aidan O’Brien.

His last time fifth isn’t ideal but he is the proven class act and if anyone can bring a horse back, it’s AP!

THE REVENANT has been winning G2 and lower races in France and Germany, culminating in a 4.5L victory in a £100K G2 at Longchamp.

Will love the going if it is as soft as they predict but has a slight trends negative as a 4yo.

However, form like his and a top class G1 like this are two different tings and, at current odds of 5/2, he is a false fav in my opinion.

KING OF COMEDY is the other 3yo in the race and was 66/1 runner-up in the 2000 Guineas. So, held on that form.

Had a lay-off and came back to win a listed race last time. Will need to improve but could be the each way play around 10/1.

SELECTION

To me it is between the in-form and classy BENBATI and the classic winner MAGNA GRECIA;

I am going for the former on his age edge and a last time win.

He is also third fav at present whereas the latter is second fav (0-22 last 22 runnings)

Both trainers have won this race 4 times but it wouldn’t surprise me if O’Brien worked the oracle again!

However:

1 point each way                  BENBATI @ 7/1 Boylesport

TAKE BOG

ASCOT 4.00

QIPCO CHAMPION STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Up till 2011 this was the Group 1 Dubai Champion Stakes run at Newmarket. This race was won by the likes of Pilsudski, back to back winner Alborada, Kalanisi, Rakti, Pride, New Approach and back to back winners, Twice Over and Cracksman. Just a glance down the ratings list shows there has been no change in the class of horse needed to win this.

Market

Favs won 7 (including the last 3  runnings) and second favs 4, so account for half the winners

21 came from  the    first 6 in the betting

17 came from the first 4

Other than a 25/1 winner, the rest were returned 14/1 or less

Weight 

ALL carried 8-8 to 9-5

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated at least 115 (the 25/1 winner), the rest were rated 117+

Age

5yo’s have the best record with 5 wins from 42 runs (12%)

4yo’s are next  best with 8-84 (10%)

3yo’s are 8-93 (9%)

 6yo’s 1-13 (8%)

Profile

ALL had 7 runs or less in the past year

ALL had 0-6 runs that season (seasonal debutants 3-29)

17 finished in the first two last time – 12 won

19 won 1 mile plus

19 ran 10F+

ALL ran 8-365 days ago

DRAW

No  obvious     bias

Best Trials

The Irish Champion Stakes     has  been by  far  the    best guide to this with the 5 past  winners coming from that race.

MAGICAL won    this  well   by 2.25L with DEIRDRE nearly 3L  back in fourth.

Trainers

Michael Stoute has won this twice.

John Gosden has  won it the last twice with Cracksman and Frankie is 92/291 riding for him

CONCLUSION

None have a perfect trends profile.

MAGICAL will be having her eighth run of the season (NONE ran more than 6 times). She also doesn’t have a first two finish last time.

Ran below par last time in the Arc (a stone below peak)

DEIRDRE fails on the last time place point. Though was an unlucky 4th in the best trial for this.

Of those past winners with OR’s, only one won with a lower rating than 117 and that was off 115 – which does for the 114 rated ADDEYBB.

That leaves us with one. The 115 rated CORONET who gave 6lbs weight for age to MAGICAL in last year’s Fillies and Mares race on this same card and was unlucky (given too much to do by Olivier Peslier) to be beaten just a length.

SELECTION

I am assuming that AP is bringing Magical to the well once too often this season (a dangerous assumption against AP!) and that CORONET will be given a better ride by Frankie this time  1 point win CORONET @ 7/2 with Bet365             & Boylesport

SATURDAY 19/10/19

ASCOT 2.45

CHAMPION FILLIES AND MARES STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

This was a Group 1 race up to 2008, until 2011 when it became the G2 Pride Stakes. In 2011/12 it was run as the Qipco Champion Fillies and Mares (G2) for the first time, upgraded to a G1 in 2013.

Market

4 favs and 5 second favs won

ALL came from the first 8 in the betting

16 came from the first 4

16/1 was the biggest priced winner, but  the other 21 were returned 14/1 with 17 having SP’s of 12/1 or less

Weight

ALL declared runners are within the weight range

Ratings

Of the 20 with an OR, all were rated 93+

Since becoming a G2, 98 was the minimum OR

Since becoming a G1 the lowest was an OR of 99. That was the longest priced winner of this over the period and the next lowest rated was 109

Age

3 yo’s are on 10% with 15-138

4yo’s are -6-66 (9%)

5yo’s are no forlorn hope either with their 1-14 (7%) record although this is obviously a much lower sample

No horse older than 5 has won this over the past 22 years

Profile

ALL had 1-8 runs in the preceding year

ALL had 0-6 runs that season

18 finished in the first 7 last time – 8 won

17 had won over a minimum of 10F

20 had run over           10F+

16/22 had already run over 12F

ALL ran 8-365 days ago or less

DRAW

13 were drawn  amongst the 3 highest

Best Trial

The Park Hill Stakes has provided 3 winners

DELPHINIA was a short head second

Trainers

Michael Stoute has won this 3 times

Aidan O’Brien has won the last two and Donnacha is 140/503 riding for him

John Gosden is 12-43 in the last 14 days Frankie is 92/291 riding for him

Oisin Murphy is 18/45 riding for Gosden

CONCLUSION

If we take all those priced 12/1 or less, rated 109+ with less than 6 runs this season and a win last time, we are left with 2:

Shortlist:

ANAPURNA

STAR CATCHER

Selection:

I can see no chinks in the armour of the fav, who is a G1 winner and a C/D winner and has won on the sort of ground anticipated.

Not original, but STAR CATCHER is the selection.

2 points win STAR CATCHER @ 7/4 with Bet365

TAKE BOG