Lockinge Stakes 2018

SATURDAY 19/5/18

NEWBURY 3.40

THE LOCKINGE STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Great guide with 11 winning favs and 5 second favs

20 came from the first 4 in the betting

A 20/1 winner, but the other 20 were 9/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-11 to 9-00

Fillies (8-11) have a far better strike rate than males (9-00) with 3-13 (23%) compared to 18-183 (10%) respectively.

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 17 with an OR were rated 113+

Age

20 were aged 4 or 5

4yo's best with 15-109 (14%)

5yo's are 5-50 (10%)

Profile

20 had 1-6 runs in the preceding year

17 (and by a long way the highest strike rate) were making their seasonal debuts

Only one had run more than twice that season

ALL finished in the first 6 last time

18 posted first 4 finishes with 6 winning and 6 finishing second last time

18 had won over a mile plus (10F max)

ALL had run over a mile plus

17 were distance winners

17-75 (23%) last ran 121-365 days ago

Only 4-79 (5%) ran 16-30 days ago

Best trial by a long way is the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes with 7 winners of this coming from that  race at Ascot on Champions Day in October.

Trainers (with declared runners)

Clive Cox has had 8 winners from 27 runners in the past two weeks

CONCLUSION

Shortlist:

RHODODENDRON  has a near perfect trends profile, bolstered by  the strike rate of fillies. O'Brien has only won this the once though and a debut run would have made her profile ideal.

BEAT THE BANK was tenth in the best trial for this. The problem is that was his last run and ALL other winners of this in our period finished in the first 6 last time. Other than that his trends are impeccable.

Selection

Given the record of favs and fillies, RHODODENDRUM'S near perfect trends profile make her the selection;

7/2 widely available

 

TV Trends Saturday 12/5/18

LIN 1.55 OAKS TRIAL

1ST 4 IN BETTING

12/1 OR LESS

OR 76 +

3 RUNS OR LESS

0 – 1 RUNS THAT SEASON

WON 1M +

WON LAST TIME

BECKETT 3 WINS

GOSDEN 2 WINS

OBRIEN 2 WINS

Another with no perfect trends match.

The shortlist is the first 4 in the betting.

Ralph Beckett has had 3 wins of this. He runs CECCHINI whose only downside is he has no OR ( only 1 in the part 13 renewals have been won by a runner with no OR).

The same negative applies to O'Brien's ( 2 wins of this ) Fav,FLATTERING.

Ditto LADY OF SHALOTT

Only 4 winners had more than 3 runs. Gosden ( 2 wins in this ) runs second fav STREAM SONG whose only trends negative is 4 runs.

SELECTION

I think the 4 runs negative is the lesser of two evils and I make my pick STREAM SONG

4/1 with Coral, BetVictor & Boylesport

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2.30 LINGFIELD DERBY TRIAL

1ST 3 IN BETTING

7/1 OR LESS

OR 98 + OR NO RATING

4 runs or less

0 – 1 RUNS THAT SEASON

WON 1M + 

WON LAST TIME

LAST RAN 8 – 30 DAYS AGO or 121 –  365 DAYS.

CONCLUSION

Only 1 has a perfect trend rating and that is  KNIGHT TO BEHOLD.

Best at 7/1 with Bet 365 & Boylesport

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ASC 4.00 VICTORIA CUP

Typical Winner

16/1 OR LESS

WEIGHT 8-5  to  9-1

4YO

OR 83 – 96

6 – 10 RUNS PAST YEAR

1 RUN THIS SEASON

1st 5 RUN LTO

WON 7F+

LAST RUN 8 – 60 DAYS AGO

 

There are no horses with perfect trends profiles but the following two come closest.

SHORTLIST:

KYRNEN ticks all the boxes except he has had only 5 runs in the past year.

KYZER SOSE is the same but he has had only 4 runs. His last run last season was at Royal Ascot over a mile and he got an RPR of 15 (!)- finishing 39L 26th of 29 on GF going in the 75k Brittania Stakes.

Beaten too far out to blame the trip (pulled hard)

SELECTION

KYRNEN has a slight trends advantage with 5 runs in the past year and hasn't ran a shocker here, unlike  his rival.

12/1 widely available

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HAY 3.00 SWINTON HANDICAP HURDLE

Typical Winner

1st 9 IN BETTING

16/1 0R LESS

10-00 to 11 – 5

OR 128 to 141

4 – 6  YO

DISTANCE WINNER

LAST RAN 8 – 60 DAYS AGO

Shortlist

4 have perfect profiles:

OPTIMUS PRIME whose in form yard has had 8 winners from 29 runners the past 14 days

CAPITAINE

FORTH BRIDGE

ACT OF VALOUR Byrony Frost is 29/97 riding for Nicholls over the last 2 years

Selection

4yo's have the best strike rate in this rqce (14%) double that of the next best age.

That, and the trainer/jockey combo tips it in fqvour of ACT OF VALOUR

Widely available at 8/1

2000 Guineas 2018

SATURDAY 5/5/18

NEWMARKET 3.35

THE 2000 GUINEAS

GROUP 1

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 6 times and second fav won 4

18 came from the first 6 in the betting

Winners at 40/1, 33/1 & 25/1 but the rest were 14/1 or less

Weight

All carried 9-00

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 11 with an OR were rated 109+

Age

All 3yo's

Profile

20 had 5 runs or less in the preceding year

ALL had one run or less that season

Seasonal debutants have the best record with 16 winners from 178 runners (9%)

Those with one run are 5-165 (3%)

ALL finished in the first 3 last time – 15 won

19 had won over 6F+

16 had won over 7F+

19 had run over 7F+

Of those that ran this season ,ALL ran within the last 30 days

ALL the seasonal debutants last ran 121-365 days ago

12 were drawn 1-6

Of which 9 were drawn 1-3

Trainers with runners

Aidan O'Brien has won this 8 times!

Michael Stoute has won it 3 times

Charlie Appleby is 22-76 with his 3yo's at the course

CONCLUSION

If we opt for the seasonal debutants (who have a three times better strike rate than those with one run this season) along with all the other trends, it narrows it down to two:

Shortlist:

SAXON WARRIOR

ELARQAM

Selection

SAXON WARRIOR won the 122K G1 Racing Post Trophy over this trip at Doncaster. 

I wouldn't take the form line with Masar (through Roaring Lion) too seriously as the latter's trainer said the horse was only 80% fit for his debut.

Given AP O'Brien's record in this race, SAXON WARRIOR is the selection.

Best priced 9/2 at Paddy Power

THE WHITBREAD 2018

SATURDAY 28/4/18

SANDOWN 3.35

THE WHITBREAD HANDICAP CHASE

GRADE 3 

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Shocking race for the first two, with the fav winning just once – same as the second fav

ALL came from the first 13 in the betting

Winners at 40/1 (last year), 25/1 twice & 20/1, but the other 17 were 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 10-0 to 11-12

18 carried 10-13 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 126-154

18 rated 148 or less

19 had OR's of 131+

Age

ALL aged 6-11

7, 8 & 11yo's are best with 5-50 (10%), 7-82 (9%) & 3-34 (9%) respectively

6yo's next best with 1-14 (7%)

9yo's are 4-90 (4%)

10yo's are 1-83 (1%)

Profile

ALL ran 1-11 times in the preceding year

20 ran 1-11 times that season

17 had run 3-8 times that season

17 completed last time

14 of these finished in the first 6

Only 2 won, but 5 ran second last time

Non completers have a bad record, but those tthat unseated last time are 3-39 (8%)

18 had won over 3 miles or more

20 had run over 3m1f

ALL last ran 60 days ago or less

Those that last ran 8-15 days ago have an awful record with just 1 win from 84 to try (possibly many were runners in the Grand National?)

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has won this race 4 times

The Pipes have an interesting record here with Martin winning this race back in 2002 and 2004, while David has a 4/14 strike rate with his chasers here in the past 5 years.

Stuart Edmunds is 4/10 here with his chasers in the past 5 years

Mark Bradstock is 1/3 at this course with his last  years runners

CONCLUSION

There is no perfect trends horse in this but these two come the closest:

Shortlist

No horse has won this more than once in our period, but Just A Par come within just a short head of doing so in 2016 when THE YOUNG MASTER stayed on gamly up the Sandown hill to deny him.

The latter won off 148 that day and hasn't won in 10 starts since (including 10L fourth off 148 in this race last year). He runs off 135 this year and, though he 'ran' 7 days ago, he unseated at the first in the Scottish National, so didn't have a race. Off that mark, a repeat of last year's effort would see him go close.

This is his race and Good ground would be ideal. He could be the first for at least 22 years to double up.

The other is the lightly raced novice,  STEP BACK. He has not yet run over 3m1f, a trend only one winner in the period managed to defy.

Having said that, he wasn't stopping over 3 miles at Fakenham last time when demolishing a decent field of novices 16L "impressively" 

Given he has only raced  5 times under rules (3 chases), it is perhaps no surprise he goes beyond 3 miles for the first time tomorrow.

With the Bradstock yard in form and Jamie Moore booked to ride for the first time, I think this could be the improver in the race.

Selection:

I am backing the pair.

Should THE YOUNG MASTER be unable to scupper the repeat win trend I will have STEP BACK running for me.

Equally, should STEP BACK's lack of a run over 3m1f go against him, I will have THE YOUNG MASTER on my side.

STEP BACK is 12/1 generally

THE YOUNG MASTER is 12/1 with Betvictor

Scottish National 2018

SATURDAY 21/4/18

AYR 4.05

SCOTTISH NATIONAL

HANDICAP CHASE

GRADE 3

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 3 and the second fav ditto

17 came from the first 12 in the betting

Winners  at 66/1, 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 & 20/1 twice, make the market a poor guide to this 

Weight

ALL carried 10-0 to 11-12

20 carried 11-10 or less

Official Ratings (OR)

ALL rated 124-150

20 had OR's of 148 or less

Age

ALL aged 7-11

8yo's are best with 8-120 (7%)

11yo's just next best, strike rate wise, on 3-63 (5%)

7 and 9 yo's are next on 4% with 3-79 & 4-106 respectively

10 yo's  are 3-87 (3%)

Profile

20 ran 2-8 times in the preceding year

19 ran 1-6 times that season

19 had won over 3m+

ALL had run over 3m1f+

ALL bar one completed last time

19 of those 20 finished in the first 6

13 finished in the first 3 – 6 won

ALL last ran 120 days or less ago

Vicente – the only horse to win this more than once over our period – goes for the hat trick

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has won this 3 times, including the last twice. 11-39 of his runners at the course over the past 5 years have won.

Fergal O'Brien is 4-8 at the course over the same period (2-5 with his chasers)

Nicky Richards is 12-42 with his chasers at this track over the last 5 years

Michael Scudamore is 1-2 with his chasers here

CONCLUSION

This is not an easy race to narrow down on trends.

Usually, my starting point would be the market, but that is not much of a guide at all for this race.

In this case I am going to make age the starting point.

8yos have won 8 of the last 21 runnings and 7% of 8yo's who ran in this won. So they have easily the best record. 

Next best  in terms of wins are 9 yo's, with 4 wins (4%). Next best on strike rate are 11yo's on 5% with 3 wins

Applying all the trends to 8yo's and the sole 11yo, narrows it down to the following:

Shortlist:

The two 8yo's who fit the trends perfectly are:

VINTAGE CLOUDS

GLENCAIRN VIEW

The sole 11yo in the race is REGAL FLOW who, as well as having the perfect trends profile, comes from the in-form yard of Bob Buckler.

Selections:

I am not going to try and second guess the form.

REGAL FLOW is the proven stayer with an in form trainer

VINTAGE CLOUDS ran a cracker in a 3m 1f handicap at the Cheltenham festival when just out of novice company. He looks a potential improver.

GLENCAIRN VIEW, is Irish trained and will be having only his seventh chase run. This one is a bang in form improver, having won a 35K 3 mile Novice Handicap Chase at Navan last time.

VINTAGE CLOUDS is widely available at 10/1

GLENCAIRN VIEW is widely available at 20/1

REGAL FLOW is best priced 25/1 with Sportingbet

Grand National 2018

SATURDAY 14/4/18

AINTREE 5.15

THE GRAND NATIONAL

GRADE 3 HANDICAP

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Poor race for market leaders with 4 favs winning and just one second fav

Formerly not a bad guide, the market has been way out over the last 11 years with winners at 100/1, 66/1, 33/1 twice and two 25/1 shots.

For me, hardly a guide at all. 33/1 or less looks best, but if there is one with all the other trends that is a longer price, I won't let it put me off.

Weight

ALL 10-00 to 11-9

20 carried 10-3 or more

20 carried 11-6 or less

Official Rating

ALL 136-160

20 were rated 138+

20 were rated 157 or less

Age

NO horse under 8 has won this – from 53 to try

ALL aged 8-12

20 were aged 8-11 with roughly the same strike rate

9, 10 & 11yo's are on 3% with  7-230, 6-194 & 4-132 respectively

8yo's are 3-130 (2%)

Profile

Ran 3-10 times in the last year

19 ran 3-7 times that season

ALL 19 to complete last time finished in the first 8

20 had won over 3 miles plus

ALL had ran over a minimum of 3m1f

Of the 19 to complete, ALL finished in the first 8 last time

15 finished in the first 5

Last time fallers are 1-15 (7%)

Those pulled up last time have a terrible record with 1-121 (1%)

A HUGE stat: 20 had their last run 16-60 days ago

Trainers

Nigel Twiston-Davies has won it twice. the last time was 2002

Gavin Cromwell has a 2-4 strike rate at Aintree over the past  years

Robert Walford is 1-2  here over the same period

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow it down to 7 + the reserve

Shortlist:

TOTAL RECALL

SHANTOU FLYER

TIGER ROLL

VIEUX LION ROUGE

I JUST KNOW

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX

MILANSBAR

VINTAGE CLOUDS (reserve)

Selections:

TOTAL RECALL a faller when making headway 4 out in the Gold Cup has all the trends and looks fairly treated for a horse who looked like he may well have been fighting it out for third without the fall.

One doubt is he has never run over these fences.

My other  two ran a staying on sixth and 10th in last year's race.

Officially Good to Soft it was much faster than that. The race was run in a time half a second faster than standard. 

This year's going should slow it down enough for my other two:

Last year's staying on sixth VIEUX LION ROUGE and last years never nearer 10th, HOUBLON DES OBEAUX.

Best prices:

TOTAL RECALL 11/1 @ Bet 365, Boylesports & Skybet

VIEUX LION ROUGE 33/1 @ Hills, B365 & Sportingbet

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 50/1 widely available

 

 

4YO JUVENILE NOVICE HURDLE

THURSDAY 12/4/18

4YO JUVENILE NOVICE HURDLE

AINTREE 2.20

GRADE 1

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Good race for favs with 10 winning but lousy race for second favs with just 1 winner

Short priced favs have scored 5 out of 6 for those returned 6/4 or less

The market has got it right half the time and 10/11 times between the first two and with the shorties of 6/4 or less.

18 came from the first 7 in the betting

Winners at 40/'s, 33's & 25's but the other 18 were 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 10-7 to 11-4 

Official Rating

13 of the last 14 had an OR

Of these, ALL were rated 124+ and 12 had OR's of 130+

12 of the last 13 winners were rated 135+

Age

Race is for 4yo's only

Profile

ALL had 1-16 runs in the preceding year

19 had 13 runs or less

19 had 2-8 runs that season

19 had already won

ALL had previously run between 2 miles half a furlong and 2m2f – but no further

ALL completed last time

19 finished in the first 6

16 ran in the first 3 last time and 6 won

ALL last ran 8-60 days ago

17 last ran 16-30 days ago and such runners have double the strike rate of the next best

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has scored 3 times in this and is 6/14 with his runners in the past 14 days.

CONCLUSION

Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this by his standards, with just future Champion Hurdle winner Binocular as his sole triumph.

He trains the first two in the betting. 9/4 fav, APPLES SHAKIRA, the 'good thing' in the Triumph Hurdle who pulled too hard and got turned over (same again?)  Also 5/2 second fav, WE HAVE A DREAM, who, though a winner of a weak G1 at Chepstow, doesn't have the form in the book.

The latter has now beenn backed into 15/8 and the former has drifted to the same price.

Shortlist

MALAYA  (Paul Nicholls)

NUBE NEGRA

Selection

Given his record in this race and the roaring form of the yard, I am opting for MALAYA.

Best priced 13/2 with Hills

 

 

 

 

 

MELLING CHASE 2018

FRIDAY 13/4/18

AINTREE 3.25

MELLING CHASE

GRADE 1

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

9 favs won and 4 second favs

19 came from the first 4 in the betting

A 14/1 winner but the rest were 10/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 11-5 to 11-10

Official Rating (OR)

Of the 13 with a rating, ALL had OR's of 154+

12 were rated 160+

Age

20 were aged 7-10

9yo's 7-39 (18%)

10yo's 4-25 (16%)

8yo's 6-41 (15%)

7yo's 3-22 (14%)

Profile

ALL had 1-7 runs in the preceding year

19 had 3-7 runs that season

20 finished in the first 8 in their last run

18 posted a first 4 finish – 7 won

19 won over 2m1f+

18 had run over 2m3.5f+

ALL last ran 8-60 days ago

18 last ran 16-30 days ago

Trainers/Jockeys

 Paul Nicholls has won this twice and is 4/13 with his runeers over  the past fortnight (as I write)

Paul Townend is 30% (from a big sample) riding for Paddy Mullins over the past the last 2 days.

Robbie Power is 16/58 for  Colin Tiard over the  same period

CONCUSION

There are 4 with a perfect trends profile

BALKO DES FLLOS

MIN

POLITOLOGUE

CLOUDY DREAM

So we need to decide on other factors.

Shortlist:

Altior is a superstar and I think form lines through him are better than the one through Un de Sceaux.

POLITOLOGUE'S 4L second to Altior now looks a great effort in the Game Spirit.

Cheltenham is not his track and he was well beaten in the Champion Chase. But Aintree is.

After winging the last in the G1 Novice Chase over C/D last year, he stumbled a few strides later and was a very unlucky loser. He is also 2/2 at Kempton. So he is better on a flat track

MIN ran a great race in defeat in the Champion Chase when beaten 7L by ALTIOR. On a literal form line this makes POLITOLOGUE 3L better.

But, according to RPR, the winner ran 9lbs better in the Champion Chase (though the official handicapper  gave him the same rating).

So, it all depends on whether you think Altior's come back run or his Champion Chase win was best. For me, he jumped perfectly and won as he pleased in the Game Spirit.

Whereas at Cheltenham he wasn't fluent, never travelled that well, yet still sprinted clear on the run in.

The line through Altior and who will like the course best will decide it for me.

Selection

I think there isn't that much in it on the book between the two, but POLITOLOGUE'S proven liking for this sharp track, the record of Nicholls runners in the race and the form of his yard, tip it in his horse's favour.

11/2 with Hills Ladbrokes  and Boylesports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Snowdrop Fillies Stakes 2018

SATURDAY 7/4/18

KEMPTON 3.15

SNOWDROP STAKES

CLASS 1 LISTED FILLIES STAKES

LAST 14 RUNNINGS

Market

An amazing race for the first 3 in the betting

5 winning favs and 5 second favs

13 came from the first 3 in the betting

Two 14/1 shots have won but the other 12 were 7/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-9 to 9-1

Official Rating (OR)

Of the 11 past winners with an OR, ALL were rated 94+

Age

Only 4 and 5yo's  have won this, with near identical strike rates

4yo's have won 12, from 100 to try (12%)

5yos are 2-19 (10%)

Profile

12 ran 4-8 runs in the past year

13 won this on their seasonal debut – from 117 to try (11%)

1 had run once – from 17 to try (9%)

NONE had run more than once that season

11 posted a first 7 run last time

ALL had won over 6 furlongs plus

13 had run over 1 mile or more

12, of the 80  to try (15%), had last run 121-365 days ago

1-5 (20%) last ran within the last 7 days

1-11 (9%) had their last run 31-60 days ago

Trainers

James Fanshawe has won this twice in the last 6 runnings

Jeremy Noseda has a 32-112 (29%) strike rate at Kempton and is 14-49 (29%) with his 3yos here since 2013. Of his 3 runners in the last 14 days, 1 has won.

Sir Michael Stoute has a 4-12 record with his horses aged 4yo plus here over the past 5 years

CONCLUSION

Shortlist:

That first three in the betting stat takes some ignoring!

The fav, Stoute's SMART CALL, is a 6yo (0-7). Also last ran 118 days ago. ALL running after a long lay off ran at least 121 days ago.

The second fav, Noseda's LA FIGLIA, has only had 2 runs compared to the 4+ runs that 12 of the previous winners had

Third fav HUNAINA, has the opposite problem. He has had 9 runs in the last year. NO previous winner had more than 8 runs. Also had two runs this season. NO previous winner had more than one run that season.

Close fourth fav, SHENANIGANS, could easily be in the first 3 in the betting and fits all the trends perfectly.

SELECTION

SHENANIGANS is knocking on the door of being in the first 3 in the betting ( a big plus in this) and is the only one of the first 4 in the betting with a perfect trends profile.

All the front 4 bar the fav are being well backed but it is perfectly possible ours will go off third or less fav (9/2 third fav with PP and 5/1 third fav with LADS) which would statistically boost our chances.

Currently best priced 13/2 with BetVictor and Racebets

 

The Lincoln 2018

SATURDAY 24/3/17

DONCASTER 3.35

THE LINCOLN

C2 HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

6 favs won & just one second fav, which shows the market usually gets it right between the front two

19 came from the first 10 in  the betting

Winners at 33/1 & 25/1 but the other 19 were 20/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-4 to 9-10

19 carried 8-9+

19 carried 9-4  or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 86-107

19 were rated 100 or less

20 had OR's of 90+

Age

20 were aged 4-6 

4yo's are best with 9-143 (6%)

6yo's are 5-106 (5%)

5yo's are 6-140 (4%)

One 8yo won 20 years ago, from just 22 to try.

Profile

9 winners have come from just 5 stalls: 1 & 3  and the highest 3 . Nearly half the winners came from around 20% of the stalls.

19 had 4-10 runs in the preceding year

16 finished in the first 9 last time

Of which 11 finished in the first 3

17 had already won over a mile or more

ALL had ran over a mile plus

Those that ran 8-15 days ago have the best strike rate with 4-49 (8%)

The remaining 17 won 121-365 days ago – 6% strike rate

No horse in the last 21 years has won this ore than once

Trainers

Richard Fahey has won this twice in the last 6 years

Willie Haggas has won it twice and his runners have scored 2/3 in the past 14 days.

Hughie Morrison is 2/4 in the past fortnight

William Knight's runners have scored 1/2 over the same period

1 of Michael Bell's 3 runners have on over the last two weeks

CONCLUSION

If he hadn't won this last year, BRAVERY, from his 1 draw would have been very interesting as would STAMP HILL from stall 20 if he had won over a  mile or more.

But given their trends negatives, I think we are going to have to look for those drawn outside the best 5 stalls. The three with the perfect trends profiles are:

Shortlist:

The Haggas yard is firing on all cylinders recently and he runs current 6/1 second fav, ADDEYBB.

This one won the 9F Silver Cambridgeshire, on the straight course at Newmarket in, his last run last season on Good to Soft. 

As interesting, was his 2.75L third in a 32K Goodwood handicap over 10F the time before on officially Soft going. Those that have run well over further have a good record in this and he should find the ground no problem.

Current 5/1 fav, FIRE BRIGADE, was 7/2 JF with ADDYEBB in the above Newmarket race. He met a little trouble in running but was beaten only half a length receving 3lbs (receives 1 lb tomorrow).

What I find interesting is that Ryan Moore rode ADDEYBB that day but rides FIRE BRIGADE tomorrow.

Also, drawn 19, were one of the three highest drawn horses to pull out, he would be in one of the plum highest 3 stall numbers.

REPERCUSSION improved for the application of a tongue tie to run out an easy 5L winner of a Class 3 straight mile Newmarket handicap in his last race last season. Bronze Angel was 5.5L third in that race (giving 8lbs to the winner), whereas two runs later he ran third to FIRE BRIGADE by 1L receiving 3 lbs.

REPERCUSSION is another with good form over further having won over 9F and beaten 2L over 10F on French Soft going – so the ground should suit.

At the risk of getting egg on my face, this ex Andre Fabre inmate COULD, nb "could" be the group horse hiding amongst the handicappers here. In his last run in France he ran a good 3L second to ZAYVA. That one went on to win a Chantilly Listed race and was beaten onlyy 3.25L in a Chantilly G2 next (subsequently winning a g3 & G2 later that season). The winner of that race was Taareef who went on to run Ribchester to half a length in the G2 Prix Moulin at Chantilly last September.

Selections

I really can't split them on known trends or known form so I will take the three against the field:

FIRE BRIGADE is currently best priced 11/2 with Hills

ADDEYBB is 13/2 with Bet365, Betway Betvictor & Sky Bet

REPERCUSSION  is 20/1 with Bet365, Betway Betvictor & Sky Bet

 

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