ASCOT 3.50

QIPCO CHAMPION STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Up till 2011 this was the Group 1 Dubai Champion Stakes run at Newmarket. This race was won by the likes of Pilsudski, back to back winner Alborada, Kalanisi, Rakti, Pride, New Approach and another back to back winner, Twice Over. Just a glance down the ratings list shows there has been no change in the class of horse needed to win this.

Market

Favs won 5 and second favs 4, so account for nearly half the winners

19 came from the first 6 in the betting

Other than a 25/1 winner, the rest were returned 14/1 or less

Weight 

ALL carried 8-8 to 9-5

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated at least 115 (the 25/1 winner), the rest were rated 117+

Age

5yo's have the best record with 5 wins from 39 runs (13%)

3, 4 & 6yo's are much of a much with 7-87 (7%), 4yo's 7-78 (9%) & 6yo's 1-11 (9%)

Profile

17 ran 1-6 times in the past year

ALL had 0-6 runs that season (seasonal debutants 3-29)

18 finished in the first two last time – 13 won

17 won 1 mile plus

17 ran 10F+

ALL ran 8-365 days ago

Michael Stoute has won this twice. He has 6/1 third fav Poet's Word, a 4yo with a near perfect trends profile. Only a win last time and a year older could Improve it to perfect 

The French have won 4 of the last 11 runnings (2 since 2011) and Jean-Claude Rouget trained two of them. The French Derby winner, (10.5F), Brametot, finished 6L fifth, a couple of weeks ago, in the Arc.

Rouget also has a 4-10 strike rate at the course over the past 5 years (3-7 with his 3yo's here!)

CONCLUSION

The trends point to a shortlist of two:

CRACKSMAN

POETS WORD

SELECTION

The last time win of CRACKSMAN clinches it (13 won last time while 5 were second), he is definitely the trends pick.

I find it interesting that Stoute (double winner of this) pulled out Ulysses and now relies on Poet's Word whose half length second in the 620K Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes (Churchill flopped) makes good reading for this race.

Rouget's record with his 3yo's at Ascot and in this race is hard to ignore, but Brametot's fifth in the Arc last time would be a most unusual route to victory in this.

If the trends are broken, I think one of the two latter will benefit.

However, there is no getting away from the fact that CRACKSMAN is the  trends selection, though, granted, no-one will get rich from backing him at a best priced 2/1 with Ladbroke, Corals, Betway and Skybet.

SAT 14/10/16

NEWMARKET  3.40

THE CESAREWITCH

HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 20 runnings

Market

A poor guide with winners at 66/1 twice, 50/1 twice and 25/1 – 4 of those winners were in the past 6 years!

However 2 favs, 2 second favs and 3 third favs won, giving 7 winners from the first 3 in the betting

15 came from the first 9 in the betting

Weight

ALL carried 9-8 or less and 18 carried 9-6 or lower

Official Rating (OR)

18 were rated 98 or less, which  ties in perfectly with the 9-6 or less trend

Age

The older they get the better their wins to runs strike rate, with two exceptions – the dire record of 5yo's who have won this just once from 149 runners and the decent record of 3 yo's, who are 2-39 (5%)

Of the rest, in order of merit (strike rate wise), 9yo's are 1-16 (7%), 8yo's 2-40 (5%), 7yo's 3-80 (6%), 6yo's 5-117 (4%) & 4yo's 5-208 (2%)

Profile

18 ran 2-11 times in the past year

15 ran between 4-9 times in the past year

18 ran 2-7 times that season

19 ran 1-7 times that season

18 finished in the first 7 last time

18 had won over 2m plus (flat or hurdles)

19 RAN over 2m1f (flat or hurdles)

18 last ran between 16 and 120 days ago

The 2 winning 3yo's were rated 94 & 95

TRAINERS

9 of the 20 winning trainers were jumps trainers who have the odd runner on the flat.

Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of this 3 times

Brian Meehan has trained the winner twice.

As have Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs

The Pipe family have won it twice as have the Baldings.

Joseph G Murphy is 1-2 at the course over the past 5 years

Richard Hughes is 1-3 here with his older horses.

Roger Charlton is 9-23  with his runners over the past 14 days

Michael Madgwick has had 1 winner from just 2 runners in the past fortnight

CONCLUSION

If we ignore the 4 & 5yo's – who have a poor record in this – and concentrate on those from the first 9 in the betting, which is those aged 20/1 or less , and we apply the above trends, there is just one with a perfect trends profile, SHREWD.

3.5L third in the C/D trial for this last time out (Who Dares Wins won but is a 5yo), he didn't get a clear run and can improve for  his shrewd trainer, Ian Jardine (travelling all the way down from Scotland).

Generally available at 20/1, though a few firms have him a 16:1 chance.

GOING

Having looked at the race times for the less classy racing at Newmarket on Thursday, it rode on the fast side of GOOD (the first six races Friday confirm  this as I write). With dry weather forecast, it may well ride GOOD TO FIRM on Saturday. One thing seems sure, unless the forecast is wrong, and there is substantial rain, the going should not have the word "soft " in it.

SAT 30/9/17

NEWMARKET 3.35 

THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE

HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

4 favs have won and one second fav

15 came from he first 6 in the betting

A race not short of surprises with winner at 100/1, 40/1, 33/1 & 25/1. The remaining 16 were returned 20/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-12 to 9-9

19 carried 9-5 or less

19 carried 8-1+ and 18 carried 8-4 plus

Official Rating (OR)

ALL were rated 78-104

18 had OR's of 102 or less

19 were rated 87+

Age

ALL aged 3 to 6

6yo's have the best strike with 4-72 (6%)

3yo' s are 4-141 (4%)

4 and 5yo's are both on 3% with 77-241 and 4-130 respectively

Profile

ALL ran between 1-11 times in the preceding year

19 ran between 1 and 8 times that season

18 posted a first 5 finish last time (16 finished in the first 4)

19 had won over 1 mile plus

ALL had run over further than a mile

None won after more than a year off

Trainers

The Gosden yard have won this twice. He runs 2 tomorrow.  25/1 shot GM Hopkins who is outside the price band and posted a duck egg last time, and Linguistic, who, rated 103, iwould be the second highest rated winner of this in 21 years. Also 25/1 with Ladbrokes puts it outside the price range (yet a couple of firms go 16's).

Martyn Meade is 10-34  here over the past 5 years and he runs two. 401 chance Dolphin iVista who is outside the betting range and ran sixth last time. The  other is 16/1 shot Chelsea Lad who also ran outside the first  5 last time.

Peter Hiatt doesnt run many here, but he has had 2 winners from 2 runners in the past 5 years. He will have to outrun his odds and the trends to win tomorrow as he would be the second longest priced winner in 21years.

Jim Crowley is 5/13 for David Menuisier and they team up with fav, Thundering Blue who has an almost perfect profile (if he was a 6yo it would be perfect) and is shortlisted.

CONCLUSION:

Applying the above trends, using the first 6 in the betting  and currently priced 20/1 or less in the Ladbrokes betting list, narrows it down to 4

Clear 7/1 fav, THUNDERING BLUE – not a great race for favs with 4 former winners achieving break even

Clear 11/1 second fav, BIG COUNTRY –  only 1 second fav has won this in the last 20 years, producing a 5 point loss

Clear 14/1 fourth fav, QASSEM is interesting and looked like he might be backed. Fourth favs show a point profit but third favs have the same strike rate as favs (15%) but show a 12 point profit. Ladbrokes go  14/1 but others go  as long as 20/1 (still just within the price band). If Ladbrokes intelligence is correct, this one may go off third fav.

Joint 18/1 9th fav, NOVOMAN, is another they can't make their minds up about with Hills going 16/1 and others going 20's. Only one 8th fav has won (in fact only 4 from outside the first 6  in the betting have won) and they show a 4 point loss. Trends-wise, I would say this one was possibly the weakest.

Shortlist

THUNDERING BLUE has won the last twice as he pleased. His penultimate race, when he had subsequent 44K Sandown class 2 handicap winner Eddystone Rock back in fourth, was in a 13K handicap of 10F here . He was even more impressive when winning a 31K class 2 handicap at Sandown last time beating subsequent Listed winner, Monarch's Glen, with future 16K Class 2 10F handicap winner Euginio 3L back in fifth. He has gone up 6lbs for his last win but looks like he his still well ahead of the handicapper.

BIG COUNTRY is 3/3 between 1m 2.5F and a mile and a half and  when fav. He won't lack for stamina but will he have the speed? He ran a screamer to finish second to  our trends bet, Ballet Concerto, in the 125K John Smith's Magnet Cup over 10.5F at York in July, running on well at the finish when in receipt of 10lbs from the winner. He looks to be improving still and his class isn't in question.

But in the 6 runs since his move to Appleby's yard he has been campaigned generally over 11 and 12F. His earlier form, when trained by Charles O'Brien, didn't indicate a liking for this trip with RPR's of 70 over 1M and 72 over 10F. 

He has improved a ton – his latest RPR was his best (105), but I can't help wondering if he won't get outpaced only to fly all to late at the finish.

QASSEM ran a cracker in only his third race since being gelded when beaten 1.75L by Flaming Spear in a 55K York  1M handicap at York at the end of August. Previously won won a Class 3 Handicap at Chelmsford comfortably. However, the form of those two races has not worked out well at all with just one of 26 subsequent runners placed.

But there is something about this ex Andre Fabre inmate that shouts "improver". I told you earlier that Ladbrokes were going shorter than the rest at 14/1, they now have him at 12's and the  other firms have been following (though, having just checked he has drifted back some now).

Selections

The horse with the form in the book and improving is the fav  THUNDERING BLUES, currently best priced 8/1 with Hills and Boylesports.

The possible improver is QASSEM, best priced 20/1 with 365 and Betvictor.

I have split my stake between the two.

SATURDAY 23/9/17

NEWBURY 2.50

THE MILL REEF STAKES

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

10 favs won and 3 second favs

ALL came from the first 5 in the betting

17 came from the first 3

ALL were returned 10/1 or less

17 were returned 7/1 or shorter

Weights

ALL carried 8-12 to 9-4

Official Rating (OR)

14 had an OR and ALL were rated 100+

Age

2yo's only

Profile

ALL had 1-8 runs

ALL finished in the first 7 in their last run

17 finished in the first 4 and 9 won

Of the 18 with a previous win, 14 won over a maximum of 6F and 4 over a max of 5F

None had won over further

None had run over further than 7.5F

Trainers

Mick Channon has won this twice but his 40/1 shot, Helvetian, with his rating of just 91 and a duck egg last time,  is not a trends horse.

Clive Cox is the in form trainer with 9/23 winners in the last fortnight. His Grand Koonta, with his 94 rating and 8th place last time, don't recommend him as a trends horse.

James Tates is 2/7 with his 2yo's a Newbury in the past 5 years and runs  the fav, Invincible Army, who has a perfect trends profile and is  shortlisted.

Jamie Spencer is 7/25 for Jeremy Noseda and they team up with 7/1 fourth or fifth fav, Lansky. He improved 18 lbs on RPR to run a good 4L third on only his second run, in the 7F G3 Acomb Stakes at York, which makes me wonder if this drop back will help.However, all he would need for a perfect trends profile would be a win last time.

CONCLUSION

The betting alone narrows it down to 5 and the favs have a great record in this. The last two winners of this were Harry Angel and Ribchester, to give you some idea of the class of this race recently.

I have narrowed it down to the 2 last time winners and  first two in the betting:

SHORTLIST

ENJAZAAT

INVINCIBLE ARMY

SELECTION

INVINCIBLE ARMY has the group form in the book and is already being backed as though his favouritism is assured.

Enjazaat has improved with each race and may well do so again tomorrow. He only needed to be pushed out to win a 6F Ripon Listed race, beating Tip To  Win 2L. That one went on to "easily" win the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes over 7F at Doncaster's St Leger meeting. So this horse is no pushover.

However, in the G3 Molecomb Stakes at Glorious  Goodwood, INVINCIBLE ARMY bumped into one of the best 2yo's in Britain in the shape of Havana Grey. That one went on to run 1.25L second in the prestigous French 2yo race, the G1 Morny Stakes and then was just collared close home, beaten half a length, trying to give Heartache 3lbs in the G2 Flying Childers at the Leger meeting.

INVINCIBLE ARMY is the selection but  I do consider Enjazaat a possible big danger.

Currently best priced 11/4 with Hills

SAT 16/9/17

DOCASTER 3.35

THE ST LEGER

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

Great race for favs with 11 of them winning along with 2 second favs

Winners at 25/1, 22/1 & 14/1 but the other 17 winners had SP's of 8/1 or less

Weight

Up until 2014, all carried 9-0

Since then 2 carried 9-1 and  a filly, in receipt of the 3 lbs allowance, carried 8-12

The record of fillies is 1-16

Official Rating (OR)

Of the 16 past winners with an OR, ALL were rated 102+ and 15 were rated 108 or higher

Age

3yo' only

Profile

All had 2-7 runs in the past year

18 had 3-5 runs that season

ALL finished in the first 4 last time

9 won and 5 finished second

All won over at least a mile while 16 won over 10F+

ALL had ran over a mile and a half

NONE were distance winners

ALL last ran 16-90 days ago

Trainers.

AP O'Brien has  won 4 runnings of this.

John Gosden has won 3 renewals

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow it down to 5:

AP O'Brien's 7/2 joint fav, CAPRI, certainly ticks all the boxes and has the form to go with it having won a classy renewal of the Irish Derby last time. He beat subsequent 6L winner of the G2 Great  Voltigeur and 3.5L winner of the G2 Prix De Niel, Cracksman, with the English Derby hero, Wings of Eagles, ( retired after the race because of an injury) a close third.

CRYSTAL OCEAN fulfils all the critreia but has. never won a race beyond G3 company, though he has twice ran really well when beaten 1.25L in the  Dante  in G2 company and the G2 Edward the Seven,  behind Permian (went on to be beaten a nose in a valuable G1 in France next time). Beaten a length and a quarter in both those races – the Dante at York and the King Edward the Seventh at Royal Ascot – he could go close.

Top class mile and a half form is key to this and, assuming the step up in trip suits, this one may not have to improve too much and may do so. 

DEFOE too ticks the trends boxes, but a win over 1m5.5F Stakes at Newburyin the G3 Geoffrey Freer last time, is an unusual route to victory in this and he is untried beyond G3 level. His defeat of the classy, if quirky (his running around at the end of the race is apparently due to being partially sighted in one eye)  Frontiersman –  looks impressive at first glance. Frontiersman had previously split the top class  Highland Reel and last season's Eclipse winner Hawkbill in thG1 Coronation Cup at the Derby meeting. He then went on to go down just  3/4L to Hawbill in a Newmarket G2.

Defoe had Frontiersman four and a quarter lengths behind in the Geoffrey Freer but the latter's RPR for that effort was 10 lbs below his previous two efforts referred to above. This tells me Defoe needs to improve. Unbeaten in all 4 of his races this season – and having graduated from handicap to G3 copany, he may well do so.

3 times winner John Gosden has two runners

Last time out winner, STRADIVARIOUS, would be another unusual winner in that he beat Big Orange (previous conqueror of subsequent 9L Irish St Leger winner, Order of St George) over 2 miles last time. Only 1 – of 11 to try – has dropped back in trip to win this test of stamina AND speed. Still, he is one of only two Group one winners on our shortlist. His G1 form would be tempting were it over a mile and a half.

His other runner, the filly CORNONET,who has a near perfect trends record (a win last time would make it perfect).  Simple Verse was the first filly to win this for donkey's years . But, then again, few have tried. Form-wise, if she won this it would be a tremendous compliment to Enabled as she has been beaten 18l in the 1000 Guineas, then 9L in the Irish Oaks and finishing 5L behind the wonder filly last time in the Yorkshire Oaks.  Looks to be improving but I  don't think Enabled would beat the winner of a classy Irish Derby by 5L. If you do, lump on Enable for the Arc now!

Shorlist:

CAPRI

CRYSTAL OCEAN

SELECTION

CAPRI is a stand out for me. No flaws trends wise and a classic winner. I can't believe the 4/1 on offer (Ladbrokes have him significantly shorter than the others at 10/3).

I listened to the pundits on ITV yesterday and Matt Chapman talking out of his wallet about the ride given to Cracksman in the Irish Derby. Yes, he needed pushing along to get going but he was close enough if good enough in the last furlong and wasn't stopping as he took second close home from English Guineas winner Wings of Eagles.

Talk like that minimises the courage of the winner and Capri found plenty for a canny ride from Seamie Hefferman and was the worthy winner. Cracksman was close enough to pass him but couldn't.

The way he stuck on that day and his trainer's record –  both in this race and with stepping horses up to staying trips in general – makes him a confident selection.

Another objection was that he needs Soft going. Yet the clock says the going for the Irish Derby was Good/Yielding at worse. Yesterday it rode Good according to the race times and no rain is forecast for today. But it is forecast for tomorrow and if it does rain, the ground should be perfect for CAPRI.

Take the 4/1 BOG  available now at Boylesports, as I think, if he is going to win, he will be well backed into clear favouritism

SATURDAY 9/9/17         

HAYDOCK 2.25

SPRINT CUP

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 6 and second fav twice

1st 7 in the betting won 19

Other than a 25/1 winner, the other 19 were all l returned 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL 8-11 to 9-3

Official Rating

15 of the 17 with an OR were rated 104+

Of these 15, 13 had OR's of 111 or more

Age

ALL were aged 3-7

18 were aged 3-5

3 and 5yo's are best with a 10% strike rate each of 10-77 and 5-50 respectively

4yo's strike rate is just over half with 5-88 (6%)

6yo's are 1-36 (3%) and  1-19 (5%) respectively

Best to concentrate on 3 to 5yo's I think

Profile

18 had 2-11 runs in the past year

19 had 2-7 runs that season

17 had already won over 6 furlongs or more

19 had ran over 6F+

16 were distance winners

19  last ran 8-90 days ago

19 finished in the first 6 in their last run

16 posted a first 4 run last time – 6 won

Trainers

Charlie Appleby has his horses in fine form with 7 winners from 22 runners the past fortnight. His runner, Blue Point,ticks all the boxes (a win last time would be a bonus) and is shortlisted.

Willie Haggas has had 12 winners from 40 runners in the last two weeks. . He also has a great record at this course with 34 wins from 103 runners in the past 5 years. 7 of those winners were aged 4yo plus, from 25 runners. He runs the 4yo Tasleet who falls down on trends due to his lack of a  first 6 run last time.

CONCLUSION

The first 6 in the betting are 12/1 or less with the rest 20/1 plus. Given market trends, this narrows it down to those 6.

Of these, Tasleet and The Tin Man finished outside the first 6 last time (19 posted a first 6 finish last time).

This narrows it down to 4:

MAGICAL MEMORY has run in 6 Group 1's and managed  just  one placed effort. That was as a 3yo in this race in 2015 just three quarters of a length behind the 104 rated Twilight Sun. This is a lot tougher with the top rated 119 and 4 others rated 116. Still a trends horse, but doesn't look good enough to me. He has 4L to find with Maurice de Gheest winner, Brando, on their running in that race last time.

Shortlist:

BRANDO

BLUE POINT

HARRY ANGEL

SELECTION

An easy race to narrow down but not so easy to separate them.

I have already ditched Magical Memory on form grounds so, given the remaining 3 are trends horses, the only way I can narrow down further is by the same criteria.I

Having looked at the race times for Thursday and concluded it rode Good, the official going for Saturday of GOOD TO SOFT, given a forecast inch of rain over Friday and Saturday morning, looks about right.

We can't know to what extent the forecast rain will affect the going. Will it make it on the Soft side of Good to Soft will the newIsh drainage system allow it to be on the Good side of Good to Soft?

If the latter, then I can't see it inconveniencing any of the 3, if the on the softer side  though, there could be a surprise as none of the 3 are proven on proper Good to Soft/ Soft going. Going off race times, and not official goings, none of the 3 have won on  anything worse than Good.

I am going to work on the assumption that the drainage will mean it rides closer to Good than to Soft. Which brings us back to form.

9/4 fav Harry Angel has been a revelation since adopting front running tactics, winning the G1 July Cup last time. Previously 3/4Lsecond to Carravagio in the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot with fellow  Godolphin owned Blue Point just half a length back in third (not raced since). The first 3 pulled 3L clear of the rest..

This six times raced 3yo would appear to be approving, yet his last 3 RPR's have been the same – 122.

Carrying the second colours of Godolphin, Blue point is no mug either. He beat Harry Angel in his penultimate race, though this was when the latter was pulling hard and before front running tactics were adopted. But he beat him emphatically by a length and a half before finishing just a half length behind him in the Commonwealth Cup.

This one has been put away since Royal Ascot and, according to his RPR's, has been improving with each run. At 1-1 between the pair, the 10/1 widely available is very tempting, especially with the Appleby yard in such good form.

Last year's Ayr Gold Cup winner, Brando, had to go abroad to win his first race above G3 level – but what a G1 to win! The 6.5F Maurice de Gheest is one of the most prestigious races in the French calendar. This win over the extra half furlong augurs well should the going be on the soft side tomorrow.

However, despite this 5yo jumping from handicap to G1 winner, the RPR figures  show improvement of just 1 pound. He was rated 119 for winning the Ayr Gold Cup last year, but 120 for winning his G1 last time.

He is held (just, as he has a 4lbs pull for a length and a quarter third) by Harry Angel on July Cup form.

All in all, there is little between them on the book. Therefore, with BLUE POINT more than 3 times the price than either of the other two, he is the selection.

SELECTION

BLUE POINT  14/1 @ Paddy Power

SAT 2/9/17

BEVELEY 3.15

THE BEVERLEY BULLET SPRINT

LAST 13 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won just 1 but second favs over represented with 4 wins

12 came from the first 7 in the betting

A 40/1 shot won and one with an SP of 16/1 – all the rest were priced 10/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-12 – 9-7

12 shouldered 9-0 or lower

Official Ratings (OR)

ALL 96-113

Age

Winners from 3 to 10, except for 9yo's who score 0-5

10 yo's  are 1-4 in this which puts them top on strike rate from a small sample

Of those with more than one win, 6yo's just tip it on strike rate with 3 wins from16 runners (19%)

3yo's are a very close second with 4-24 (17%)

8yo's have a good strike rate of 13% from a small sample (1-8)

5 & 7yo's both have a 6% strike rate with 2-35 and 1-16 respectively

4yo's are just 1-37 (3%)

Profile

ALL had 2 or more runs in the past year

10 had 2-7 runs in in the past year

Recent form doesn't look very important, though 9 fiished in the first 9 last time out

12 had 3-8 runs that season

11 were distance winners

11 had won over further

12 had run over further

ALL last ran 8-90 days ago

Trainers

Bryan Smart has won this 3 times with 3 different horses. He runs Alpha Delfini, who has a near perfect trends profile.

Paul Midgely's horses are in fine form at present with 10 of his last 34 runners winning over the past fortnight. He runs top weight Final Venture, who would be only the second horse in the last 12 years to carry more than 9-0.

CONCLUSION

Only one horse ticks all the boxes and that is the 10yo MIRZA, who has the perfect profile.

ALPHA DELFINI ticks all the boxes bar one – he has never won beyond 5F (though ran a couple of good races in defeat at 6F). He ran 7L behind Marsa in the G1 Nunthorpe at York 8 days ago.

Given the record of his trainer in this (Bryan Smart), I can't leave him out.

SELECTIONS

MIRZA – 10/1 with BET365, BETVICTOR & SKYBET

ALPHA DELFINI – 15/2 with LADBROKES

SATURDAY 26/8/16

YORK  3.35

THE TOTE EBOR STAKES

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Betting

Not exactly a bookie's benefit but not far off

2 favs have  won and 3 second favs

However there has been a  winner at 100/1, two at 33/1 and four at 25/1!

The only sense in which the market is a guide is that 15 were returned at 12/1 SP or bigger

Weight

NO  horse has won this with more than 9-4 on its back

Official Handicap Rating (OR)

19 were rated 103 or less

Age

3yo's have the best strike rate with 3-21 (14%) but are not represented tomorrow

Of the other ages, 5yo's have got easily the best record with 10 wins from 104 runs (10%)

No horse older than 7 has won in this period

All the other ages have wins to runs ratios of around 4%

Profile

18 had 4-12 runs in the last year

17 had 2-5 runs that season

16 posted a first 7 finish last time

12 finished in the first 3 LTO

17 had won over 12F +

16 had ran at 14F plus

19 last ran 8-90 days ago

Trainers

The Irish have won 4 times and WIllie Mullins has sent one over in the shape of Ivan Grozny who, as a seasonal debutant, would not be a typical winner. Also he had a run on the jumps just  23 days ago. The real trends crippler – for him  and the top 14 in the field – is that NO horse in the last 20 runnings has won this carrying more than 9-4

Stoute's  yard are 10/33 in the last two weeks and his 4yo, Dubka, is the sole representative. He has everything going for him bar age. 4yo's have a strike rate in this race around 4% compared to the 10% of 5yo's)

It is a similar story with  the red hot (7/17 last 14 days) Prescott yard's horse (I have just watched Marsha win!), Flymetothestars. This one was a close third in the 94K Northumberland Plate last time over 2 miles and had the speed to  land a 5K handicap before. The age puts me off but this is Prescott and we have just seen what he is capable of pulling of!

Ralph Beckett's yard is flying too and he saddles the 5yo bottom weight, Magic Circle. This one ticks nearly every box (including age) and is 2/2 at this course, the latest win being in a 43K handicap here the other day. The quic return could be a concern but he is 1/1 when reappearing after 7 days or less.

Peter Niven has a 4-12 strike rate here and they were all 4yo plus. However, his 9yo Clever Cookie falls down on both age and weight trends.

CONCLUSION

We are looking for a 3 or 5yo carrying 9-4 or less and rated 103 or lower. It must have won over 1m2f plus and run over 1m6f, had 2-5 runs this season, finished in the first 7 (preferably 3) last time and last run between 8-90 days ago.

At the risk of Prescott making a fool of me, I am going to opt for MAGIC CIRCLE whose one trends flaw is he returns after just 3 days off. Only 8 have tried to win this off a 7 days or less lay off over the last 20 years and none have succeeded. Three have placed though and i take him to overcome this minor trends negative at the widely available price of 10/1

Saturday 19/8/17

RIPON 3.15

GREAT ST WILFRED HANDICAP

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav 5/20 and second fav scored zero. Another race where the bookies seem to get it right between the front two

18 winners came from the first 10 in the betting

The winning SP's tie in with this, two 20/1 shots having won and one at 18/1

The remaining 17 were all returned 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-13 to 9-10

19 carried 9-7 or less

19 carried 8-7 or more

Official Rating

ALL rated 75-101

19 rated 80+

Age

ALL aged 3-7

4yo's best with a strike rate of 7%, 8 wins from 107 runs

 3 & 7yo's are next best in terms of strike rate with 2-32 (6%) and 3-49 (6%) respectively

5 and 6yo's have the worst record with 4-97 and 3-76 (4% each) respectively

Profile

ALL had run 3 times or more in the past year

17 had run 3-9 times that season

17 finished in the first 7 last time with 6 winning and 13 finishing in the first 4

18 had already won over 6 furlongs plus (8 had won between 7F and 1mile and half a furlong)

ALL had ran over 6F with 16 having run over further (between 7F & 10.5F)

So, though it sounds odd in a sprint; the trends suggest horses that get every inch of the 6F, as evidenced by winning or runninng over further, do best in this. You don't want a 5 furlong horse for this!

16 were distance winners

18 had their last run 30 days or  less ago

17 were drawn 1-13

Trainers/Jockeys

David O'Meara and  Daniel Tudhope, have won 3 of the last 6 runnings. Out Do is their runner, but he is an 8yo who finished out of the first  last time.

Richard Fahey and Tony Hamilton won 2 of the remaining 3. So 5 of the last 6 were won by these connections. They  combine with bottom weight George Bowen who has a near perfect profile and is shortlisted.

Tom Dascombe's had a 4/11 strike rate at Ripon with his 4yo+ runners over the last 5 years. His Kachy looks like one of those 5 furlong horses i referred to earlier.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist

SHANGHAI GLORY is 0 wins and a place out of 5 efforts on ground faster than Good to Soft

PIPERS NOTE – Is right on the limit of the number of runs this seasons with 9 runs. Loves this track (6-19 at the course)  and Good or faster going (9-31). One and a half lengths 4th in this last year off a 4 lbs lower mark on similar  ground. Surely an each way prospect.

FLYING PURSUIT – Is another who  loves the track with a 2-5 record and one placed effort. Won on all ground bar fast. Comfortably won a class 2 31K handicap over this trip last time and the 6lbs rise may not be enough to stop this 4yo who suddenly seems to have started to  improve (RPR 7lbs higher for last win than previous win in the race before last.

GEORGE BOWEN  – Represents the FAHEY/HAMILTON connection. This one is on the drift and now between 18 and 20/1 (17 winners have been returned 16/1 or less).  Kept top class handicap company last 3 runs, finishing 4L sith in the Stewards Cup consolaion race last time. Very tempting with the connections but doesn't look good enough and 0-2 (both efforts unplaced) at the track.

SELECTIONS

It looks like the going will be too fast for Shangai Glory and (tempting though he is with those connections) George Bowen doesn't look good enough.

This leaves us with the two course specialists:

PIPERS NOTE @ 11/1 with 365 & BetVictor

FLYING PURSUIT @ 14/1 with Corals & Paddy Power

GOODWOOD 3.35

THE STEWARDS CUP

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

A very good guide! 6 favs won and 4 second favs

17 came from the first 6 in the betting

Correspondingly, there have been winners at 40/1, 33/1 & 20/1 but the other 17 were returned 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-2 to 10-00

19 hauled 9-9 or less

18 had 8-9 plus to carry

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 83-111

19 were rated 104 or lower

19 had an OR of 91+

Age

ALL were 3-6yo's with the older they get, the less chance statistically

3yo's are best with 3-52 (6%) and 4yo's next on 8-163 (5%)

5yo's are 6-139 (4%) while 6yo's are 3-102 (3%)

Based on strike rate and number of wins, 6yo's only have half the chance of 3yo's

In terms of number of wins 4yo's (8 wins) and 5yo's (6) have the stats.

My inclination would be to be wary of 6yo's and rule out any older horses

Profile

ALL had run 4  times or more in the past year

14 had run 4-7 times over the last year

18 ran 3-6 times that season

16 posted a first 7 finish last time out (8 won)

ALL had won over 6F+

ALL were distance winners

Trainers

Roger Charlton has won this 3 times and he runs the fav, Projection.

This one has plenty in his fav but three niggles put me off from a trends perspective. Firstly 14 former winners had 4-7 runs in the last year. This one has had only 3 runs. 18 had run 3-6 times that season but Projection has had only 2 runs. Perhaps more significantly, only 1 horse in the last 20 years has won off a mark higher than the 104 he runs off tomorrow.

Willie Haggas has won it twice and his only runner is Raucous. This 4yo has a near perfect profile (could only be improved by him losing a year!) and is shortlisted.

David Griffiths has a 2-7 strike rate here at Goodwood over the past 5 seasons, all of them with horses aged 4yo+. His 33/1 8yo, Duke of Firenze doesn't look trends material  at all.

Alan Bailey is 2-7 with his 4yo+ horses here too but his 7yo 40/1 shot and 7yo, Go far is  another trends blowout

Pat Cosgrave is 2/4 for Ed Walker over the past two years. His Aeolus  would have been interesting were he within the price range. He seems to be drifting at the moment an is available at 25/1;

CONCLUSION

Looking at those from the first 6 in the betting, carrying 8-9 to 9-9 and  91-104.

Projection is rejected as a trends pick on the grounds discussed above

With the good record of 3yo's, the combination of David Elsworth and the on fire Ryan Moore catches the eye as their Sir Dancealot is one of only two 3yo's in the race.

14 past winners had a max of  7 runs in the last year and this one has been busy, with 9 runs. Not undoable though as 6 winners had 10 or more races over the past year.

Of his 9 runs he has won only 1 and that was at this trip. But, in the remaining 8,  he ran 7 times over  7F and once over 1M.  This is no problem though as 12 previous winners had run over 7F+.

This isn't the most confident of trends selections, due to the small niggles, but being a 3yo and ticking nearly all the boxes  with a trainer and jockey combo who just had a winner as I write, SIR DANCEALOT is a tentative suggestion, especially if the going is GOOD, as today's race times suggest.

RAUCOUS is another one of definite interest. Closely matched with POLYBIUS on Wokingham form (the former got into a barging match) he has, arguably, the best profile for this. Were he a 3yo rather than 4, it would be perfect.

The two wins of this race by hs trainer inspire some hope too.

POLYBIUS finished two and a quarter lengths in front of RAUCOUS in the Wokingham receiving 4 lbs. He is 2lbs worse off tomorrow with that one, but I think the latter could turn the form round as he was well backed fav in the Wokingham but suffered a rough race.

It is interesting that Ryan Moore rode Raucous in the Wokingham but he switches to the 3yo SIR DANCEALOT tomorrow.

What puts me off Polybius as a trends selection is only his age. 6yo's have the worst record of the winning age groups (between 3-6 in this race) with a strike rate of just 3%

Shortlist

SIR DANCEALOT

RAUCOUS

POLYBIUS

Trends Selections

SIR DANCEALOT 14/1 best priced with Ladborkes and Corals

RAUCUS best priced 16/1 with Ladbrokes