CHAMPIONS SPRINT CUP
LAST 22 WINNERS
5 favs won and 4 second favs
18 former winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Winners at 28/1 & 20/1 but the remaining 20 were 12/1 or less
ALL carried 8-9 to 9-4
20 carried 8-12+
21 (including all the last 19) carried 9-2 or less
18 had an OR and all of them were rated 100+
17 of the 18 had an OR of 107+
ALL aged 3-6
3 & 4yo’s have a 12% strike rate with 8-7 & 9-83 respectively
5yo’s are 4-57 (7%)
6yo’s have a poor record with 1-46 (2%)
ALL ran 3-9 times in the last year
21 ran 3-7 times that season
21 finished in the first 5 last time
6 won and 7 were second last run
ALL had won 6F+
20 were distance winners
ALL last ran 1-120 days ago
No discernible advantage
The HAYDOCK SPRINT CUP has provided 8 winners
HELLO YOUMZAIN beat the THE TIN MAN half a length.
BRANDO was a further 2L back in 4th
James Fanshawe has won this twice from 14 runners
If we take those from the first 8 in the betting and priced 12/1 or less, who ran less than 3-7 times this season and 3-9 times in the past year while finishing in the first 5 last time.
Given that 3 and 4 year olds have won 17 of the last 22 runnings, with a 12% strike rate compared to 7% for 5yo’s, we will concentrate on these.
I will be surprised if modern Ascot’s excellent draining course rides Heavy tomorrow.
1 point each way HELLO YOUMZAIN @ 5/1 @ Bet365
HELLO YOUMZAIN is a winner on Soft, was 2.5L third behind ADVERTISE in the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot over C/D (much faster ground), and, most importantly, won by far the best trial.
The former is the selection with the latter (unproven on anything slower than Good to Soft) the danger.
QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES
LAST 22 RUNNINGS
This is a traditional race and has been run under the same name, as a Group 1 race, for a long time – certainly covering all the period we are examining. Qipco started sponsoring it in 2011, the first Ascot Champions Day when, fittingly, Frankel won this race.
10 favs won but no second favs. However 8 third favs won!
Therefore 18 came from the first 3 in the betting – but NO second favs!
There was 33/1 winner in 2001 and a 14/1 winner in 2000. Since then the highest priced winner was 8/1 (though there was a 9/1 winner back in 1997).
Therefore 18 past winners were returned 9/1 or less and ALL the last 15 had SPs of 8/1 or less
ALL carried 8-12 to 9-4. The basic weights seem to have changed over the years therefore I will not look into this any further as it is no guide to this renewal.
Official Rating (OR)
Of the 19 with an OR ALL were rated 113+
Since 2011 and Qipco sponsorship, all bar one of the last 6 had an OR of 120+
3yo’s and 5yo’s have dominated
3yo’s have won 14 times from 97 runners (14%)
5yo’s are 5-26 (19%)
4yo’s are just 3-50 (6%)
Older horses are 0-20
20 had 1-6 runs in the last year
21 ran 1-6 times that season
21 finished in the first 7 last time
8 won and 6 were second last time
19 had won over 7F+
16 had won over 1 mile plus
21 had run over 1m+
ALL had their last run 16-365 days ago
10 winners came from the 3 widest drawn horses.
The G2 Celebration Mile has provided 5 winners
HAPPY POWER was beaten just under a length third.
5 winners came from the G1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood
The Irish Champion Stakes produced 4 winners.
AP O’Brien has won this 4 times.
Saeed bin Suroor has also won this 4 times (as has Godolphin)
John Gosden has won this four times too.
Donnacha O’Brien is 140-503 for his Dad, Aidan
Oisin Murphy is 33-109 for Saeed bin Suroor
Jim Crowley is 9-29 for Marcus Tregoning
This is a lot trickier than the sprint trends! The following 4 fit the trends.
BENBATI has a perfect trends profile and, and, as a 5yo, represents the age with easily the best strike rate.
Never won above G2 but was impressive when winning a G2 last time – beating the St James’s Palace Stakes neck runner-up, KING OF COMEDY by 5L.
MAGNA GRECIA is not only the only UK G1 winner from the quartet, but a classic winner in that he won the 2000 Guineas
Flopped in the Irish Guineas next time but has been off since, which suggests a problem.
A 3yo (second best on strike rate and 13 wins in this) , he is trained by one of the co top 3 trainers in this race – the maestro Aidan O’Brien.
His last time fifth isn’t ideal but he is the proven class act and if anyone can bring a horse back, it’s AP!
THE REVENANT has been winning G2 and lower races in France and Germany, culminating in a 4.5L victory in a £100K G2 at Longchamp.
Will love the going if it is as soft as they predict but has a slight trends negative as a 4yo.
However, form like his and a top class G1 like this are two different tings and, at current odds of 5/2, he is a false fav in my opinion.
KING OF COMEDY is the other 3yo in the race and was 66/1 runner-up in the 2000 Guineas. So, held on that form.
Had a lay-off and came back to win a listed race last time. Will need to improve but could be the each way play around 10/1.
To me it is between the in-form and classy BENBATI and the classic winner MAGNA GRECIA;
I am going for the former on his age edge and a last time win.
He is also third fav at present whereas the latter is second fav (0-22 last 22 runnings)
Both trainers have won this race 4 times but it wouldn’t surprise me if O’Brien worked the oracle again!
1 point each way BENBATI @ 7/1 Boylesport
QIPCO CHAMPION STAKES
LAST 22 RUNNINGS
Up till 2011 this was the Group 1 Dubai Champion Stakes run at Newmarket. This race was won by the likes of Pilsudski, back to back winner Alborada, Kalanisi, Rakti, Pride, New Approach and back to back winners, Twice Over and Cracksman. Just a glance down the ratings list shows there has been no change in the class of horse needed to win this.
Favs won 7 (including the last 3 runnings) and second favs 4, so account for half the winners
21 came from the first 6 in the betting
17 came from the first 4
Other than a 25/1 winner, the rest were returned 14/1 or less
ALL carried 8-8 to 9-5
Official Rating (OR)
ALL rated at least 115 (the 25/1 winner), the rest were rated 117+
5yo’s have the best record with 5 wins from 42 runs (12%)
4yo’s are next best with 8-84 (10%)
3yo’s are 8-93 (9%)
6yo’s 1-13 (8%)
ALL had 7 runs or less in the past year
ALL had 0-6 runs that season (seasonal debutants 3-29)
17 finished in the first two last time – 12 won
19 won 1 mile plus
19 ran 10F+
ALL ran 8-365 days ago
No obvious bias
The Irish Champion Stakes has been by far the best guide to this with the 5 past winners coming from that race.
MAGICAL won this well by 2.25L with DEIRDRE nearly 3L back in fourth.
Michael Stoute has won this twice.
John Gosden has won it the last twice with Cracksman and Frankie is 92/291 riding for him
None have a perfect trends profile.
MAGICAL will be having her eighth run of the season (NONE ran more than 6 times). She also doesn’t have a first two finish last time.
Ran below par last time in the Arc (a stone below peak)
DEIRDRE fails on the last time place point. Though was an unlucky 4th in the best trial for this.
Of those past winners with OR’s, only one won with a lower rating than 117 and that was off 115 – which does for the 114 rated ADDEYBB.
That leaves us with one. The 115 rated CORONET who gave 6lbs weight for age to MAGICAL in last year’s Fillies and Mares race on this same card and was unlucky (given too much to do by Olivier Peslier) to be beaten just a length.
I am assuming that AP is bringing Magical to the well once too often this season (a dangerous assumption against AP!) and that CORONET will be given a better ride by Frankie this time 1 point win CORONET @ 7/2 with Bet365 & Boylesport
CHAMPION FILLIES AND MARES STAKES
LAST 22 RUNNINGS
This was a Group 1 race up to 2008, until 2011 when it became the G2 Pride Stakes. In 2011/12 it was run as the Qipco Champion Fillies and Mares (G2) for the first time, upgraded to a G1 in 2013.
4 favs and 5 second favs won
ALL came from the first 8 in the betting
16 came from the first 4
16/1 was the biggest priced winner, but the other 21 were returned 14/1 with 17 having SP’s of 12/1 or less
ALL declared runners are within the weight range
Of the 20 with an OR, all were rated 93+
Since becoming a G2, 98 was the minimum OR
Since becoming a G1 the lowest was an OR of 99. That was the longest priced winner of this over the period and the next lowest rated was 109
3 yo’s are on 10% with 15-138
4yo’s are -6-66 (9%)
5yo’s are no forlorn hope either with their 1-14 (7%) record although this is obviously a much lower sample
No horse older than 5 has won this over the past 22 years
ALL had 1-8 runs in the preceding year
ALL had 0-6 runs that season
18 finished in the first 7 last time – 8 won
17 had won over a minimum of 10F
20 had run over 10F+
16/22 had already run over 12F
ALL ran 8-365 days ago or less
13 were drawn amongst the 3 highest
The Park Hill Stakes has provided 3 winners
DELPHINIA was a short head second
Michael Stoute has won this 3 times
Aidan O’Brien has won the last two and Donnacha is 140/503 riding for him
John Gosden is 12-43 in the last 14 days Frankie is 92/291 riding for him
Oisin Murphy is 18/45 riding for Gosden
If we take all those priced 12/1 or less, rated 109+ with less than 6 runs this season and a win last time, we are left with 2:
I can see no chinks in the armour of the fav, who is a G1 winner and a C/D winner and has won on the sort of ground anticipated.
Not original, but STAR CATCHER is the selection.
2 points win STAR CATCHER @ 7/4 with Bet365