SAT 22/7/17

NEWBURY 3.35

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

6 favs won and 2 second favs

15 came from the first 5 in the betting

Winners at 100/1, 28/1, 25/1 and 20/1. The other 16 had SP's of 14/1 or less

Taking the first 5 in the current betting and those priced 14/1 or less, leaves us with 8 possibles

Weight

ALL carried 8-1 to 9-4

19 carried 8-5 plus

18 carried 9-0 or less

Official Rating (OR)

Only 3 had a rating. The minimum OR was 85

Profile

ALL had ran 1-5 times

10 ran 3 times and such runners have a far better record in this than those that ran more or less races

17 were distance winners

17 finished in the first 8 last run (8 won)

ALL ran 8-90 days ago

Trainers

Richard Hannon has won this 5 times (including the 100/1 winner!). His  others were returned 14/1, 6/1, 5/2 & 2/1. None of his three entrants tomorrow are priced within our 14/1 or less price  range. Dangerous to write off such a prolific winner of the race but his most  recent winners have been more sparse and were priced 5/2 & 2/1.

Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 4 winnings and he runs 5 tomorrow. 2 are from the trends betting range and are fav and co sixth fav.

The fav, Maggies Angel has a near perfect profile. One less run would be ideal – as would a last time win.

 Stablemate, and current 14/1 sixth fav, Bengali Boys, with 3 runs, has a slighty better profile. Only a win last time would make it perfect.

Willie Haggas has won this twice and he runs just one tomorrow – the 14/1 co sixth fav, One For June. Though a thrice raced last time winner, this one falls down on having an OR of just 73 and no distance win.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist

Maggies Angel – trends priofile discussed above

Debutant's Ball is an interesting, unrated, three times runner, who ran a close fifth in a Deauville G3 last time. In a good race for fillies, this 9/1 third fav could run a big race. But, carrrying 8-1, she would be the joint lowest rated winner of this in the last 21 years.

BENGALI BOYS has the best trends profile. Currently  best priced 16/1 with Boylesports, he is taken to give Richard Fahey his third win in the past 5 years.

SATURDAY 15/7/17

NEWMARKET 4.35

THE JULY CUP

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

8 favs have won as well as one second fav

16 came from the first 5 in the betting

Winners at 50's, 22's and 20's but the other 17 were returned 12/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-13 to 9-6

Official Rating

14 had an OR and all were rated 107+

12 of the 14 had a rating of 111 or more

Age

Dominated by 3 to 5yo's who have won 19 renewals

There isn't a lot in it but 3yo's are best with 7 wins from 89 runs (9%)

5yo's next best with 5-59 (8%)

4yo's marginally worse, strike rate wise, with 7-95 (7%)

Profile

17 had 2-7 runs in the past year

19 had 1-5 runs this season

14 had just 1 or 2 runs that season

17 finished in the first 5 last run

17 had won over 6 furlongs plus

14 had won over a longer trip

18 had run over 6F+

15 were distance winners

19 had their last run 16-60 days ago

No horse has won this more than once over the period

Trainers

Aidan O'Brien has won this 3 times and his yard has a 3/9 strike rate with his 3yo's at this track over the past 5 years.100/1 shot Intelligence Cross is surely there to ensure a good pace but Caravaggio has a fine trends profile which could be improved only by a win and/or run over further. Shortlisted.

William Haggas. has his horses in fine form with 13/39 winning in the past two weeks. His Tasleet has a near perfect profile. One less run would have been perfect – but shortlisted.

Jockeys

Ryan Moore is 77/255 (30%) when riding for AP O'Brien over the past two years and he rides Caravaggio.

CONCLUSION

The above two are definite candidates.

Limato has won this before, something no other horse over the period did before winnning this. He is discounted on that stat.

The Tin Man has all the trends bar a run over further. He beat Tasleet a neck last time in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot over tomorrow's trip. They both ran on very well but the latter was bumped and – with it looking as though some stamina as well as speed  is necessary to win this – i take Tasleet to reverse that form;

Harry Angel has all in his favour bar a run over further.

14 of the last 20 winners had won over further. This suggests speed alone isn't generally enough to win this.

The fav, Caravaggio, looks high class and we backed him last time. But I am going to oppose him this time with the only horse with a run (and win) over further  – 7 furlongs – TASLEET for the in form Haggas yard. Currently available at 10/1 with Skybet which looks over priced to me;

SATURDAY 1/7/17

NEWCASTLE 3.30

THE NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

Generally an open race with just 4 favs winning and one second fav

14 winners came from the first 8 in the betting

2 winners at 33/1 and one at 25/1. All the rest were returned 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-13 to 9-10

19 carried 9-5 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 85-104

18 rated 102 or less

Age

8yo's have the best strike rate with 2 winners from 12 runs

6yo's have the next best strike rate but with more winners from a much bigger sample 6-73 (8%)

4yo's are next best with 7-143 (5%)

5 and 7yo's have poor records with 2-86 (2%) and 1-41 (2%) respectively

Profile

19 ran 3+ times in the past year

ALL ran 0-5 times that season

17 finished in the first  5 last run

19 had won over 12F+

17 had won over 14F+

ALL had run over 2 miles or more

ALL had their las run 8-60 days ago

Trainers

None of today's trainers have won this more than once but there are two with very good records at the track.

James Fanshawe is 8/22 with his runners here over the last 5 years and is 2/5 with his older horses.

He runs three. Higher Power is too high in the weights and handicap plus is a 5 yo – an untypical trends profile.Jaameh had won over 1m6f but has no run over 2 miles or more, unlike all the past 20 winners. Lord George has no win beyond 11.5 furlongs and no win beyond 12.5f.

Saeed bin Suroor is another with a good record at Newcastle with 8/23 winning over the last 5 years and 2 of his 6 older runners winning. Both of his runners fall down on the same stat, regarding 8-60 days since a win. Natural Scenery has been off 78 days and Good Run has been off 63 days – both finished outside the first 5 last time.

CONCLUSION

Applying the trends narrows it to two.

SEAMOUR ran a cracker to finish a close second in this last year and is the right age. He is 4lbs higher this year though, but still ought to give a good account of himself. The only slight trends doubt about this 6yo (8% wins to runs in this race) is that his OR of 103 would be the third highest winning mark for 21 years. Currently 11/2 second fav.

The one with the near perfect trends is Sir Mark Prescott's last time out course and distance winner, and 9/2 fav, FLYMETOTHESTARS, who, as a 4 yo (5% record in this) comes from an age with the third best recod in this race – which is the one slight doubt. He is rated 100 so well within the OR range.

I can't split them as one has some OR stats against him but good age trends, while the other has not so good (though decent) age stats and fulfils the OR criteria, so i am going to back the pair of them at the above prices.

SATURDAY 24/6/17

ASCOT 3.40

THE HARDWICKE STAKES

LAST 20 RUNINGS

Market

Par for the favs with 6 winning and 2 second favs won

ALL came from the first 6 in the betting

No big shocks with winners at 14/1 and 12/1 twice  – the other 17 had SP's of 10/1 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL were rated 111+

18 were rated 114 or higher

Age

6 year olds are best on strike rate with 4 wins from 24 runners (17%)

4yo's have had the most winners with 13-94 (14%) winning

5yo's have roughly half the chance on strike rate than 6yo's with 3-25 (9%)

Profile

ALL had 1-7 runs in the past year

All ran 0-4 times that season with just the 1 seasonal debutant winning from 19 to try

ALL posted a first 6 finish last time

17 finished in the first 3 last time

17 had won over  10 furlongs plus

ALL had ran over 10F+

19 last ran 8-60 days ago

Trainers

Michael Stoute has won this 7 times including the last three. He trains the fav, Dartmouth, who ticks all the right boxes and has an almost perfect trends profile though, being either side of 5 years old would have made it  perfect.

His other horse, Across the Stars would be the joint longest priced winner of this in 21 years. A 4yo his 5th last time is not ideal and he has 3 seconds to find on the clock having won last year's G2 King Edward V11 stakes the day before Darmouth beat none other than this years Prince of Wales Stakes winner – Highland Reel (won the King George, Coronation Cup and Breeders Cup since then too!). His price represents his chance.

Roger Charlton is 7/24 wth his older horses here over the past 5 years. He runs the 6yo Second Step whose only trends blemish is  his OR of 110 – 1lb below the minimum. He has been rated as high as 118 in the past, as when beaten only half a length by none other than Big Orange over a mile and a half. For trends purposes though, we need to use the current ratings.

CONCLUSION

There is no getting away from the almost perfect trends profile and top class form of the fav, DARTMOUTH, who is the selection at 9/4 with Bet365

If you are ooking for  bigger priced  each way shot, your best bet could be SECOND STEP at 16/1 generally. But for being 1lb short of the minimum OR, and a longer price than any winner in the last 20 years,  this classy  6 yo may have been the win selection.

FRIDAY 23/6/17

ASCOT 4.20

THE CORONATION  STAKES

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Please note that some of the trends are affected by the fact that 4 of the first 6 winners were Irish or French. In those days, they didn't get a UK OR. Other than the betting and some profile trends, these are not incuded in the stats.

Market

Decent guide with 8 winning favs and 4 second favs

First 4 in the betting won 17 times

Winners at 25/1 16/1 & 12/1 – the  other 17 all had SP's of 8/1 or less

Official Rating (OR)

15/16 had an OR, and all the last 14 were rated 108+

Profile

16/20 had run 2 to 8 times in the past year

19/20 had 2 runs or less that season – those who came into this having had 3 runs that season are 0/33

14/16 finished in the first 7 last time – 5 won

14/16 won over 7 furlongs plus

15/16 had ran over a mile

15/16 ran 60 days or less ago

Trainers

John Gosden has won this twice and he runs secod fav Dabyah who – other than having run 62 days ago rather than the ideal of 60 or less – has the perfect profile.

It should be noted though that the trainer of the 1/2 fav, Aidan O'Brien has only won this once

F Chappet has had 3 winners from 10 runners over the last 14 days  He runs 10/1 third fav, Precieuse the French 1000 Guneas winner. But she has had 3 runs and the record of such runners is shown above.

Mark Casse is 1-1 at Ascot but his La Cornel would be an unusually big priced winner and she  too has had 3 runs.

CONCLUSION

 Adian O'Brien's short priced fav, Winter, is undoubtedly the class horse, but two things put me off:

With just 1 winner of this, his record in the race is poor by his standards.

The 0-33 record of those raced thrice.

DABYAH is not a perfect trends fit but only falls down on the 60 days or less since a run rule – though it has been done once. Still she is only over by 2 days and I am going to take a chance on  another upset for the long odds on shotts this week. Currently 7/1 with Sporting Bet, this close G1 Marcel Boussac third (beaten less than a length over a mile) could cause an upset and give his trainer his third win in this race.

THURSDAY 22/6/17

ASCOT 4.20

THE GOLD CUP

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

Another great race for favs with 9 winning and 3 second favs too

The first 5 in the betting won 17 times

Two 20/1 shots and a 16/1 have won but the rest had SP's of 12/1 or less

Official Rating

All 12 with an OR were rated 107 plus

10 of the 12 were rated 111+

Age

6 & 4 yo's have the best record with 5-47 (11%) and 9-89 (10%) respectively

5 yo's are next best with 4-69 (6%), so 4 to 6 yo's have won 18

One 7yo and an 8yo won from  33 runs and 16 runs respecively

Profile

18 ran 1-7 times in the past year

18 had 2 runs or less that season

17 finished in the first 4 last run

Of which 11 won

17 had won over 1m 6f or further

17 had run over 2m or more

Trainers

Aidan O'Brien has won this race 8 times and his Order of St George has a near perfect profile. This is a decent race for previous winners and he has a massive chance.

Charlie Appleby's yard continues in fine form with 6 winners from 17 runners of the past two weeks. But his Endless Time, currently 20/1, would be the co longest priced winner in the last 21 years.

Roger Charlton is 7/22 with his older horses here at Ascot over the past 5 years;  His 7yo Quest For More, doesn't have a good trends profile with his last  two runs showing 97.

CONCLUSION

ORDER OF ST GEORGE was an impressive winner of this by 3L last year, but not on ground this fast (though it was Good to Firm). His chance of back to back wins is outstanding and only a suprise woud see him beaten, which makes the Evens on offer from Paddy Power  look value.

BIG ORANGE has a perfect profile, being a 6yo. He has never won beyond 2M but was "galloping on relentlessly" when winning a Sandown 2M G3 last time by 5L on fast ground in a fast time. The 8/1 on offer generally looks decent each way value against the fav.

.

WEDNESDAY 21/6/17

ASCOT 4.20

THE PRINCE OF WALES STAKES

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

 A good guide with 7 favs and 6 second favs winning

The first 4 in the betting have won 18 times

The two exceptions were returned 20/1 & 16/1, all the rest had SP's of 17/2 or less

Weight & fillies record

All fall within the weight band and the fillies, who carry 8-11, have a good record with 2 wins from 11 runners.

Official Rating OR)

11 of the 12 with a rating had an OR of 117 plus. The exception was the 20/1 winner, way back in 1998, Lear Spear who had an OR of 109.

ALL the last 8 were rated 117+

Age

As there are only 4 & 5 year old entered there is nothing in it.

4yo's won 12 from 100 runners (12%)  and 5yo's are 7-53 (13%)

Profile

19 had only 4 runs or less in the last year

19 had 1 run or less that season

NONE ran more than twice that season and such runners have a record of 1-33

18 posted a first 4 finish last time

14 of whom won

18 had run and won over 9 furongs plus

All ran within the last year

Trainers

AP O'Brien has won this twice(which seem below par for him!). His top class Highland Reel is grossly over raced, with  8 runs in the past year, and is another with 2 runs this season.

Charlie Appleby has his horses in fine form with 6 winners from 18 runners this past fortnight. His Scottish, currenty 25/1, would be the longest priced winner in 21 years.

Jean-Claude Rouget has sent 8 horses to Ascot in the last 5 years and 3 have won – all 3yo's though!  His Mekhtaal, with an OR of 115 and having had 2 runs this season, does not appeal  as a trends horse, though the trainer's record here must be respected.

CONCLUSION

Current fav, Ulysses, has everything going for her but her rating of 116 – just a pound below the minimum.

However, there is one horse wiith a flawless trends profile and that horse is JACK HOBBS. The form of his G1 Meydan Sheema Classic Turf last time out (Highland Reel 12L back in last) has worked out really well with the second from that race – Seventh Heaven –  winning by   5L in the G2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket next time.

The selection wasn't disgraced on Champons day here last Autumn when chasing home Derby winner Almanzor and Arc winner, Fouund (beaten just 3.25 lengths).

This one has kept company in the highest class, having finished second to subsequent Arc winner, Golden Horn twice, as well as winning the Irish Derby by 5 lengths. So, finishing close behind two Derby winners and two Arc winners looks good enough form for me.

This is the trends horse, without doubt, but he is no cert as he is up against at least  3 other talented horses. Current best odds of 3/1 with Ladbrokes and SKYBET are not exactly generous, given the dangers, but not prohibitive either.

TUESDAY 20/6/17

ASCOT 4.20

THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES

Market

Great guide with 12 favs winning and one second fav

The first 4 in the betting won 19

Max price of winner was 9/1 (which narrows it down to 3)

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 10 with a rating, and all the last 7 winners, had an OR of 115+

Profile

17 has 2-6 runs in the preceding year (third fav Thunder Snow has had 8)

16 had 2 or 3 runs this season

17 finished in the first 4 in their last run

11 won last time

17 won over 7 furlongs or further

Only one won over further than a mile (10 furlongs)

16 had ran over 1 mile

16 had their last run 16-60 days ago

Trainers

AP O'Brien has won this 7 times

CONCLUSION

Boring, but we are looking for the winner on the trends indications and that makes this a one horse race. English and Irish 2000 Guineas winner, CHURCHILL, couldn't have a better profile and, with his trainers record in the race, is a very confident trends selection – as he should be at his current price of 4/6 generally.

SATURDAY 3/6/17

EPSOM 4.30 THE DERBY

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

 7 favs won and 5 second favs

5 winning third favs and 2 fourth, mean the first 4 in the betting have won 19  renewals

20/1 and 11/1 winners but no horse was returned 7/1 or more since 1998

Weight

All carried 9-0 and no filly from only one to try has been placed, let alone a 500/ shot!

Official Rating

Of the 13 to have an OR, all were rated 108 plus

10 of those 13 were rated 113+

12 of the last 13 renewals were won by a horse with a handicap rating

Race Profile

18 had 2-5 runs in the preceding year

ALL had 1-3 runs that season

19 had just 1 or 2 runs that season.

None finished outside the first 3 last time

18 posted a first 2 place last time

15 won their last race

16 had won  over a mile or further

All had run over a mile or more

All last ran 8-60 days ago

15 last ran 16-30 days ago

Trainers & Jockeys

Aidan O'Brien has won this 5 times (includind 3 of the last 5 runnings) and he saddles 6, while John Gosden has won this twice and  has 5 runners. So they have 11 of the 19 runners between them.

I am not going to list the chances of all 11 but only those from the first 5 in the betting form  where the winner has come 9 of the last 20 times.

Ryan Moore is 74/240 for O'Brien while Gosden has a 7/25 with his 3yo's at Epsom and Frakie Dettori is 4/13 riding for him.

The O'Brien/Moore team have the fav, Cliffs of Moher, who has an almost perfect profile except he is rated a pound below the minimum OR of 108;

The Gosden/Dettori team have  the close second fav, Cracksman, who has a near perfect profile. A slightly more recent run (16-30 days ago) would have put the icing on the cake.

Third fav Eminent is trained by the bang in form Martyn Meade stable who have had 2 wins from 5 runs in the past fortnight. His sixth place last time does for his trends chance though as no horse has finished outside the last 3 in its last run and   gone on to win this.

CONCLUSION

Excluding fourth fav and top rated Permian on the grounds he has run 4 times this season, one more than any other past winner, the only remaining possibilty is CRACKSMAN who can win another shoot out between the O'Brien vs Gosden yards, as today with Enable. His 109 OR trumps the more recent run of CLIFFS OF MOHER who falls down (just) on the ratings.

CRACKSMAN is 9/2 with Hills, Corals and Paddy Power

FRIDAY 2/6/17

EPSOM 3.10

THE CORONATION CUP

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

9 favs won along with 3 second favs

ALL came from the first 5 in the betting (19 from the first 4)

ALL were priced 11/1 or less

Official Rating (OR)

All 12 with an OR were rated 115+

Age

5yo's have the best record with 9 wins from 45 runners (20%)

6yos not far behind in percentage terms with 3-19 (16%)

4yo's are ok but lagging a bit perentage-wise with 7-67 (10%)

Ony one winner over 6 has won -but only 7 have tried. Given the only one in this bracket is a 40/1 shot, it would be a big surprise if this age group improves its tally.

Profile

17 had 5 runs or less in the preceding year

ALL had 3 runs or less that season (7 were making their seasonal debut which is no obstacle to winning this)

NONE finsihed outside the first 3 last time

14 (7 each) finished in the first 2 last time)

 17 had won over 12F plus

13 ouf of 83 had last run between 8-60 days ago

5-37 last ran beteen 121 and 365 day since

None had run between 61 and 120 days ago

Trainers and Jockeys

Aidan O'Brien has won this 3  times and he runs three. He also has a 1/3 record with older horses at Epsom and Ryan Moore, who rides fav Highland Reel, as a 29% strike out of hundreds of rides. So i willl start with this one.

Favs and 5 year olds have a great record in this. But horses that finished outside the first 3 last time do not and no other horse has even tried to win this after a lay off between 60 -120 days. I will pass on this one, mainly because of its seventh last time.

The same thing goes against stablemate Idaho, who has anotherwise perfect profilebut finished fifth last time.

US Army Ranger will be no stranger to readers as i have backed and tipped him nearly every time since he he made up amazing ground from the home turn to get to the whithers of Harzand, (who later beat Arc winner, Found on Champions day at Ascot), before naturally getting outstayed (beaten only around a length) having done all his work getting there.

I thought – and said – i had seen the Arc winner that day. But his susequent perfomances have been well below that. He would – at 16/1 – be the longest priced winner of this in 2 years. He won't carry my money as i think he has mental problems but, given his career best performance was over this C/D on almost the same day last year, he could spring a surprise! But not a trends horse and not for me (so pile in!)

Charlie Appleby has his horses in fine form with 10 winning from 24 runners in the last 14 days. He runs two progressive types – both around the 10/1 mark.

Frontiersman falls just a pound below the lowest rated winner of this and has had 7 runs in the last year rather than the normal maximum of 5. These two are trends negatives and he is passed over.

Hawkbill has a perfect profile except he too has been busier than the typical winner of this with his 7  runs.

Frankie Dettori has a 29% strike rate for John Gosden and their Journey is a 5yo with a perfect profile – except she is a filly and no fillies from 24 to try.. Her OR of 120 puts her only 3lbs below the fav and, having had only 4 races 4 times (winning the last 3) she could improve past the fav.

CONCLUSION

There are question marks against all these. I am very tempted by the filly Journey but i think I iwll opt for one of the Appleby pair, HAWKBILL, who, though he seems to prefer some cut in the ground, won't be found wanting for speed – having won last years Coral Eclipse.

This is a tentative selection but you won't need to put a big stake on for a good retrun as he is available at 10/1 generally.