SATURDAY 10/4/21
DAY 3 RACE 1
AINTREE 2.25
MERSEY NOVICE HURDLE
GRADE 1
LAST 23 RUNNINGS
Market
An amazing 11 favs and 7 second favs
Winners at 22/1, 20/1, 16/1, 14/1 & 12/1, but the remaining 18 were 9/2 or less
Definitely a race where the trends speak in favour for those at or near the head of the market
Weigh
ALL carry 11-4
Official Rating (OR)
15 had an OR
ALL 15 were rated 130+
12 had OR’s of 148+ (including 11 of the last 13)
Age (represented)
ALL aged 5 & 6
5yo’s have the best strike rate with 12 wins from 84 runners (14%)
6yo’s are 8-98 (9%)
Profile
22 ran 3-8 times in the past year
22 ran 1-8 times that season
ALL finished in the first 7 last time
19 finished in the first 4 –9 won
Those that didn’t complete last time are 0-8
No need for proven stamina here as 11 had won over a maximum of 2m2F
12 had won over two and a half miles or further
Ditto with runs – 8 had never ran further than 2m2F
ALL last ran between 16-60 days ago
Best Trials
G1 Supreme Novice Hurdle at the festival gave 4 winners:
BALLYADAM was 24L behind Appreciate It but a bad mistake 2 out may have took it out of him and possibly better than that.
Trainers
Paul Nicholls has won 3 renewals of this and whose horses are bang in form with 15 winners from 43
Nicky Henderson has won this twice
Charlie Tizzard is another with 2 wins in the race and they were in the last 3 runnings
Sheila Lewis is 1-3 with her runners at the course and 1-2 with her hurdlers.
Denis O’Regan is 1-3 riding for Ronan McNally
CONCLUSION
As usual, it is best to start with the trial runners.
BALLYADAM has a near perfect trends profile. A last time win would have been better.
Rated officially 148, he is just within the 148+ minimum that has prevailed 13 out of the last 15 runnings.
Maybe happier on this flat track than last time at Cheltenham
Fav, MY DROGO, is the only other runner (150) above that minimum. Has a perfect trends profile.
Shortlist:
BALLYADAM
MY DROGO
Selection
MY DROGO’S status as fav and the last time win just shade it
1 point win MY DROGO – 7/4 @ BET365
TAKE BOG
SATURDAY 10/4/21
DAY 3 RACE 2
AINTREE 3.00
MAGHULL NOVICE CHASE
GRADE 1
LAST 23 RUNNINGS
Market
Another one for market leaders, with 8 winning favs and 9 second favs
Add the 4 winning third favs and 21 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
A winner at 28/1, but the other 22 were all 6/1 or less
The two that went off 1/2 or shorter both won
Weight
ALL carry 11-4
Official Rating (OR)
18 had an OR
ALL were rated 124+
15 had OR’s of 143+
Age (represented)
ALL aged 6 & 7
6yo’s have the best strike rate with 8-38 (21%)
7yo’s are 5-51 (10%)
Profile
22 ran 2-9 times in the past year
21 had 2- 8 runs that season
Of the 18 to complete, 17 finished in the first 3 last time
8 won and 7 were second
Non completers are 0-9
ALL won over at least two miles and half a furlong
22 ran over 2m1F+
ALL had run over further than today’s 2 miles
21 last ran 16-90 days ago
Best Trial
THE ARKLE CHASE
The winner of Aintree’s MAGHULL CHASE has come from the Arkle 13 times in the last 23 runnings.
It is by far the best trial and winners of the MAGHULL CHASE finished as follows in the Arkle:
322F123F12211F
So, a first 3 run or a fall in THE ARKLE is a good pointer for this G1 MAGHULL CHASE
Your shortlist should be:
SHISHKIN has a perfect trends profile and looks bomb proof barring accidents.
Trainers
Nicky Henderson won it twice
CONCLUSION
Given the record of the Arkle first three and fallers:
Shortlist
SHISHKIN won the best trial “easily”, has a perfect trends profile and surely only accident or injury can stop him here.
Selection
SHISHKIN will win barring accidents.
5 points win SHISHKIN – 1/7 @ BET365
TAKE BOG
SATURDAY 10/4/21
DAY 3 RACE 3
AINTREE 3.35
LIVERPOOL HURDLE
GRADE 1
LAST 23 RUNNINGS
Market
12 favs and 5 second favs makes this another one for the backers
4 winning third favs make it 21/23 from the first 3 in the betting
Two 14/1 shots won, but the other 21 were 7/1 or less
Weight
All carried 10-12 to 11-10
The last 10 carried 11-7
Mares are 2-6
Official Rating (OR)
20 had an OR
ALL were rated 139+
20 had OR’s of 148+
Age (represented)
ALL aged 7-11
11yo’s (no win since 2003) equal best strike rate with 1-6 strike rate (17%)
Very close second, 7yo’s with 8-59 (14%)
9yo’s 2-27 (8%)
8yo’s 3-46 (7%)
The percentage call looks to be 7yo’s and the one 11yo
Profile
ALL had 1-6 runs in the past year
ALL had 1-6 runs that season
ALL completed last time
21 finished in the first 7 – 9 won
21 had won over 2m4F+
19 had run over 2m6F+
21 last ran 8-60 days ago
Best Trials
World Hurdle, Cheltenham Thursday
14 past winners came from that race and PAISLEY PARK was 1.75L back in third and LISNAGAR OSCAR fell when making headway at the last
The G2 Rendlesham Hurdle, Haydock in February
Provided 2 winners
Currently 14/1, THIRD WIND battled on gamely to hold off subsequent last hurdle faller in the Stayers Hurdle, LISNAGAR OSCAR, when receiving 6lbs, by 3/4L.
The latter has a 6lbs pull but the former may be improving
ON THE BLIND SIDE was another 1.75L back in third with EMITOM a further 28.75L sixth.
Trainers/Jockey (represented)
Nicky Henderson won it twice with Whisper
Previously a poor race for the Irish, but they have won it twice in the last 6 years.
Harry Fry has trained 2 winners from 7runners in the last 14 days
Sam Thomas is 2/7 with his horses over the same period
Tom Cannon is 1/1 riding for Hughie Morrison
CONCLUSION
Looking at those likely to go off at or near the first 4 in the betting, the four 9yo’s have a trends disadvantage. So I reluctantly ditch PAISLEY PARK, ROKSANA & last year’s winner IF THE CAP FITS (also his last time ninth goes against him)
Shortlist:
The two 7yo’s have perfect trends:
THYME HILL
THIRD WIND The Rendlesham Hurdle winner appeals each way as the possible improver.
Selection:
1 point win THYME HILL – 5/2 @ BET365
1 point each way THIRD WIND – 14/1 @ BET365
TAKE BOG
SATURDAY 10/4/21
DAY 3 RACE 4
AINTREE 4.15
BETWAY HANDICAP CHASE
LISTED
LAST 23 RUNNINGS
Market
Favs won 5 and second favs 4
20 past winners came from the first 8 in the betting
Winners at 50/1 22/1 and 20/1. The remaining 20 were returned 14/1 or less
Weight
ALL carried 10-00 to 12-00
Though two have carried 12-00, one 11-12, one 11-10 and another 11-8, the remaining 19 carried 11-3 or less.
Last running in 2019 was won by the 11-12 carrying winner but that was the end of an 11 years losing run for those carrying more than 11-3
The minimum weight of 10-00 was carried twice as was 10-2. But it is 14 years since a horse carried less than 10-4 won this.
So 10-4 to 11-3 looks like the weight band
Official Rating (OR)
ALL were rated 113-165
The 165 rated winner, Unguided Missile, was rated 2lbs better than the second highest – and that was way back in 1997!
Since then none of the 21 winners had OR’s greater than 145
22 were rated 121+
ALL the last 19 were rated 128+
The last 13 were rated 131+
So the sweet spot looks to be 128/131-145
Age (represented)
ALL aged 7-11
8yo’s are 8-89 (10%)
11yo’s are 2-24 (9%)
9yo’s are 4-66 (6%)
7yo’s are 3-64 (5%)
10yo’s are on 3% with 1-39
Profile
ALL had 1-9 runs in the past year
ALL had 1-7 runs that season
Only 1 failed to complete last time (last time fallers are 1-13)
19 finished in the first 8 in their last run
17 finished in the first 6 – 5 won
20 had won over two and a half miles plus
19 had run over 3 miles or more
ALL last ran 120 days ago or less
Best Trial
The Festival Plate at the Cheltenham festival gave us 4 past winners
TOP NOTCH was 6.25L third
Trainers
Nicky Henderson won it twice
Kayley Woollacott is 1/2
Brian Ellison is 3/9 with his chasers here
Sean Bowen is 2/3 riding for Olly Murphy
CONCLUSION
TOP NOTCH – carrying 11-9 and third in our best trial would be higher in the weights and handicap than ideal.
Shortlist:
Taking those that are currently from the first 8 in the betting (12/1 or less), rated 132 (minimum OR of the last 17 winners), carrying less than 11-3, rated no higher than 145, first 8 finish last time and fit the profile:
Only two:
FAGAN has a perfect trends profile.
CLOUDY GLEN too
Both seem to want a stamina test and I am not sure they will get it here. But they are certainly the trends horses.
Selection:
Half point each way FAGAN – 14/1 @ BET365
Half point each way CLOUDY GLEN – 15/2 @ BET365
TAKE BOG
DAY 3 RACE 5
SATURDAY 10/4/21
AINTREE 5.15
THE GRAND NATIONAL
HANDICAP CHASE
GRADE 3
LAST 23 RUNNINGS
Market
Favs won 5 times and the second fav twice
14 came from the first 8 in the betting
A real mixture with ALL winners priced 7/1 to 100/1!
Winners at 100/1, 66/1, four won at 33/1, two at 25/1, but the remaining 15 were 20/1 or less
Weight
ALL carried 10-00 to 11-9
22 carried 11-6 or less
21 carried 10-3+
Official Rating (OR)
ALL rated 136-160
Last 6 rated 143-160
Age
ALL aged 8-12
ALL the 8-11yo’s have strike rates of 3%
8yo’s have won 4-138 (3%)
9yo’s are 7-250 (3%)
10yo’s 6-214 (3%)
11yo’s 4-144
The only winning 12yo was trained by the great trainer of the great Grand National legend, Red Rum – Ginger McCain. His Amberleigh House won it in 2004.
That is out of 67 runners
So, I will look at 8 to 11yo’s
Profile
ALL ran 3-10 times in the past year
21 ran 3-7 times that season
Only 2 failed to complete last time – a faller (1-18 of last time fallers won) and one pulled up (1-139)
21 posted a first 8 finish last run
18 finished in the first 5
22 had won between 3m and 4m2F
ALL had run over 3m1F+
22 last ran 16-60 days ago
Best Trials
Haydock Grand National Trial gave us two past winners
LORD DU MESNIL won half a length with POTTERS LEGEND the tailed of last of 6 finishers.
Glenfarcas Chase at Cheltenham provided three winners (Tiger Roll accounted for 2 of those wins)
The first 4 pulled 72L clear but only two of those 4 have shown up here.
SOME NECK was beaten 20L (only 2.25L behind a below peak Easyland for second) in third
ALPHA DES OBEAUX finished 21.75L fourth. Connections of Tiger roll are going to be a bit peeved if that one wins!
Premier Chase (Listed) at Kelso
Two winners came from this race
CLOTH CAP won 7.5L “impressive” from ASO (non runner?) with LAKEVIEW LAD beaten 22.5L last of four
Trainers/Jockeys (represented)
Gordon Elliott has won this 3 times
Nigel Twiston-Davies has had 2 winners as well.
Paul Nicholls is 12-35 with his last 14 days runners
Mrs Jessica Harrington is 2/6 over the same period
NW Alexander is 3-9 overall and 2/4 in chases at the course
Denise Foster is 2/4 at the course (both Tiger Roll)
Brian Ellison is 3/9 with his chasers at the course
Katy Price is 3/6 at Aintree with her chasers
Mr PW Mullins is 65/205 for Willie Mullins
Tom Cannon is 3/7 for Alan King
Aidan Coleman 5/12 for Henry de Bromhead
Sean Quinlan 3/9 for Nicky Richards
Conor O’Farrell 4/7 for David Pipe
Tom Scudamore 4/5 for Jonjo O’Neill
CONCLUSION
The first 8 in the betting have provided the winner in 15 of the past 23 runnings – in odds terms, that is shorter than 1/2.
Apply the trends to those 8and you get the following:
BURROWS SAINT won the Irish National in 2019 and has a perfect trends profile.
MAGIC OF LIGHT was runner up to Tiger Roll in this in 2019 having made a mistake at the last. Would almost certainly have gone closer than the 2.75L beaten.
Very fast time (3secs faster than standard). Huge chance if reproducing that form.
ANY SECOND NOW won the G3, 3m2F Kim Muir at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival before falling in the Irish National too early to say if he would stay or not.
Has a perfect trends profile though and goes for a small yard (Ted Walsh) who know what it takes to win this.
CLOTH CAP looks a handicap blot and if he gets round and stays 5/1 is going to look a big price.
Close third in the Scottish National on this sort of going (Good) 7.6 secs faster than standard.
Selections:
The Irish dominated Cheltenham and are dominating this Aintree Festival with their reserves!
However, I think the Brits look like winning this with their own handicap blot – CLOTH CAP
In case I am wrong, I am backing what I think is the best of the Irish each way at a good price.
MAGIC OF LIGHT, from the in-form Harrington yard has done it before and could even have beaten Tiger roll back in 2019.
They don’t often come back , that’s true. But the two years off might work in our favour.
2 points win CLOTH CAP – 9/2 @ BET365
Half point each way MAGIC OF LIGHT – 20/1 @ BET365
Take BOG
MULTIPLE
£1 DOUBLES
£1 EACH WAY 5-FOLDS
2.25 MY DROGO
3.00 SHISHKIN
3.35 THYME HILL
3.35 THIRD WIND
4.15 FAGAN
4.15 CLOUDY GLEN
5.15 CLOTH CAP
5.15 MAGIC OF LIGHT
TAKE BOG