SATURDAY 18/8/18

RIPON 3.15

GREAT ST WILFRED

HERITAGE HANDICAP 

CLASS 2

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 5 but second fav only twice

18 came from first 8 in the betting

Winners at 25/1, 20/1 twice & 18/1. The other 17 were 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-13 to 9-10

18 carried 8-12+

19 carried 9-4 or less

Official Rating

ALL rated 75-101

18 had OR's of 98 or less

Age

ALL aged 3-7

4yo's are top, both in number of wins and strike rate, with 8-110 (7%)

Joint second on strike rate are 3yo's and 7yo's with 2-32 (6%) & 3-52 (6%) respectively

Next best are 5 yo's are 5-105 (5%)

6yo's are 3-78 (4%)

Profile

18 ran 3-13 times in the preceding year

!8 ran 1-9 times that season

18 posted a first 7 finish last time

14 were in the first 4 last time – 6 won

19 won over 6F+

ALL ran over 6F+

17 were distance winners

19 last ran 30 days ago or less

Best Trials

No stand out, but 3 past winners came from the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood. GROWL ran third in that race

The handicap here at Ripon, ran in early August,, has produced 2 winners. PIPERS NOTE won it this year

Trainers

Richard  Fahey has won this twice in the past 5 years

Clive Cox is 2-6 with his runners at the course

CONCLUSION

16/1 or less, carrying 8-12 to 9-4, rated 98 or less and a distance winner with a first 7 finish or better last time, narrows it down to two:

Shortlist:

PIPERS NOTE who was second in ths race last year and  won the second best trial. Two trends drawbacks are he has had 14 runs in the past year whereas 18 previous winner had ran no more than 13 times and aged 8. No horse older than 8 won this from 44 to try.

SHANGHAI GLORY was only a nose third behind the above in last year's race and has an ideal trends profile.

Selection:

By process of elimination SHANGHAI GLORY must be the trends selection.

12/1 with Hills, Paddy Power  and Skybet

SATURDAY 11/8/18

NEWMARKET 3.45

SWEET SOLERA STAKES 

GROUP 3

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

7 favs won and 8 second favs

First 5 in the betting won 20

First 3 in the betting won 17

One winner at 25/1 and another at 10/1, but the other 19 were all 7/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-8 to 9-00

Official Rating (OR)

Only 5 had an OR and ALL were rated 94+

Age

2yo's only

Profile

NONE had more than 4 runs

ALL finished in the first 5 last time

19 posted a first 3 finish – 13 won

19 had won over 6 of 7 furlongs

ALL had RAN over 7F

ALL last ran 60 days ago or less

Best Trial

Star Stakes , San 2.20, 26/8/18,  provided 4 previous winners, far ahead of the rest

The second and third in that race were AJRAR and LA JOLOSA with just a short head between them.

Trainers (with runners)

The  Hannons have won this tree times including the last twice

Saeed bin Suroor has won this three times and Al Zahrooni  trained two winners for Godolphin

John Gosden's runners are 8-29 here

CONCLUSION

Looking at the four priced 7/1 or less:

Top weight with 9-3 and fav, MAIN EDITION is ruled out on two counts. No horse has carried more than 9-00 to victory. and ALL posted a first 5 fiish last time.

Shortlist

AJRAR has a near perfect profile and is trained by the winner of the last two renewals, Richard Hnnon junior. Also second in the best trial, a listed race at Sandown over 7F.

LA PELOSA near enough dead heated in that race and is owned by connections who have provided 5 recent winners. Also a near perfect profile.

PENNYWHISTLE has the advantage of wining last time (13 past winners had  done so) and has the benefit of being trained by Gosden, sho has a 28% strike rate at the course. Last time win over C/D makes for a perfect profile.

Selection:

The latter is stepping up from class 4 company hand has it to prove.

I think one of the first two home in the best trial looks the likeliest and, as a believer in horses generally confirming places, I am going for AJRAR to confirm the placings.

7/2 at Hills , BetVictor and Skybet

SATURDAY 4/8/18

GOODWOOD 3.40

THE STEWARDS CUP

CLASS 2

HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

6 favs won and 4 second favs

17 came from the first 6 in the betting

Winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 & 20/1, but the remaining 17 were returned  14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-2 to 10-00

19 (and ALL of the last 15) carried 8-9+

20 carried 9-9 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 82-111

20 were rated 92+

6 of the last 7 had OR's of 102+

20 were rated 104 or less

Age

20 were aged 3 to 6

The remaining winner was 7  (from  58 seven year olds to try). So no winner older than 7

3 and 4yo's are 3-54 (6%) and 8-169 (5%) respectively

5 and 6 yo's are 6-146 (4%) and 3-107 (3%) respectively

Profile

ALL ran 4-13 times in the preceding year

ALL ran 2-8 times that season

17 finished in the first 9 and 16 in the first  7 last time out

12 finished in the first two with 8 winning

ALL had won over a minimum of 6F up to one mile half a furlong

Only 5 had won over further than 6F though

ALL were distance winners

ALL last ran 90 days ago or less

Best Trials

3 winners came from the Gigaset International Stakes, 28/7/18 Ascot 3.00 – race won by Burnt Sugar

3 winners came from the Newmarket 6f handicap 12/7/18  at 3.00 – race won by Foxtrot Lady

Trainers

John Quinn has had 8 winners from 20 runners in the past 14 days

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow it down to 6:

SPRING LOADED

GEORGE BOWEN

TIS MARVELLOUS

GROWL

SILENT ECHO

FOXTROT LADY

Shortlist:

12 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 2 last time. This narrows it down further to 3:

SPRING LOADED who, at 6, is not the ideal age but has the OR stats on his side (6 of the last 7 winners had OR's of 102+)

GEORGE BOWEN, who has been almost too busy over the past year with 12 runs. Only 2 winners ran more times (both ran 13 times while 2 ran 12 times)

FOXTROT LADY has a near perfect profile as a 3yo. However, rated 100, she is 2 lbs under the above mentioned OR recent trend.

Selections:

SPRING LOADED is available at 8/1 with Boylesports

FOXTROT LADY is 8/1 with Paddy Power

SATURDAY 4/8/18

GOODWOOD 3.00

GOLDEN MILE HANDICAP

CLASS 2

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

3 favs won – but so too did 7 second favs!

18 came from the first 7 in the betting

16 came from the first 6

Winners at 25/1, 22/1 & 20/1, but the other 18 were 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-1 to 9-10

18 carried 8-12+ (including all the last 10 winners)

20 carried 9-7 or less

Offiicial Rating (OR)

ALL rated 87-106

18 had OR's of 95+

18 were rated 103 or less

Age

ALL aged 3-6

3yo's have the best record with 5 winners from 56 runners (9%)

4yo's are 9-141 (6%)

5yo's  are 5-101 (5%)

6yo's are 2-54 (4%)

Profile

17 had 4-10 runs in the preceding year

19 had 2-6 runs that season

17 posted a first 6 finish last time

12 finished in the first 3 with 2 winning and 2 finishing second

19 had won between a mile and 1m 2,5f

ALL had run between those two trips

18 were distance winners

ALL last ran 90 days ago or less

Trainers

Mark Johnston has won 5 renewals

Best trial

Sandown Coral Challenge (1m handicap) on July 7th. The winner of this has followed up in this 5 times in the last 21 runnings, by far the best trial.

ESCOBAR finished 1.25L second in that race,  with VIA SERENDIPITY a length back in third and MASHAM STAR a further length back in fourth. SOUTH SEAS was a further  2L back in sixth with ORIGINAL CHOICE a length and a  half back in tenth, ISOMER was a further 3.25L twelth. 

Trainers (with runners)

Mark Johnston has won 5 renewals

The Haggas yard is flying at the moment with 14 winners from 41 runners over the past fortnight

Michael Bell is 4-12 with his older horses here

CONCLUSION

Choosing from the first 7 in the betting and priced under 14/1 (18 of the last 21 winners) there is just one horse with a perfect trends profile,

Second in what is by a long way the best trial for this, the selection is ESCOBAR

6/1 GENERALLY

Thursday 2/8/18

Goodwood 3.35

Qatar Nassau Stakes

Group1 ( 3yo + )

Last 21 runnings

Market

19/21 winners have come from the 1st 3 in the betting.

19/21 winners have won at odds of between 1/2 and 6/1.

Weight

15/21 winners have won carrying between 8-6 to 8-13.

All the 3yo fillies are carrying 8 -13.

Official Ratings

As expected with a Group 1 race 17/21 winners have ran with OR's of betwen 103 and 121.

Age 

3yo have won 15/21 runnings from 91 runners (16% SR)

4yo have won 4/21 runnings from 58 runners (7%)

5yo mares have won only once in 21 latest runnings   (the only one being 3 times winner – Midday 2017 )

Profile.

17/21 winners finished 1st – 2nd  or 3rd in their previous race.

19/21 winners ran between 16 and 60 days before winning this race.

20/21 winners ran between 2 and 7 times in the last year.

18/21 winners ran between 2 and 5 times in the season.

ALL had won over 1m+

11/21 winners had won once or twice at the distance ( 1m 2f).

10/21 winners had not won at the distance.

Best Trials (with runners)

The Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh ( 1m 2f ) and The Irish Oaks ( 1m 4f)  have thrown up 7 winners from the 21 races if they ran in these two races prior to this race. URBAN FOX won. the former,

Trainers

Aidan O'Brien has won this 4 times

Michael Stoute has won this 3 times

Last 14 days he has won  5/16 races (31% S/R)

Last 14 days he has won 13/39 races (34% S/R)

Conclusion.

Taking the first 4 in the betting and 8/1 or less as the starting point:

A former trends winner for us, RHODODENDRUM, is rejected on the grounds of no placing in the first three last time (a strange run when our trends selection, as she ran with her tongue lolling out all the way). Also 4yo's have a much inferior record in this race to 3yo's.

3yo VERACIOUS has only had 1 run this season and has never won beyond 7F, unlike ALL previous winners in our period.

Shortlist

If an older horse is to win, the trends say the Irish Pretty Polly stakes winner, URBAN FOX will  be the one. Only age goes against her.

WILD ILLUSION is 9/2 fourth fav and 19 past winners were from the first 3 in the betting.

So neither is a perfect trends pick.

Selection

WILD ILLUSION  seems to be being backed. Were she to end up in the first 3 in the betting she would be a near perfect trends horse.

A G1 winner in France , over !m as a 2yo, she is dropped back in trip from her 4L Oaks second and Ribblesdale second last time – both over 12F.

9/2 may look a good price come race time.

Best priced 5/1 with Skybet

WEDNESDAY 1/7/18

GOODWOOD 3.35

SUSSEX STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

11 favs and 4 second favs won

8 of the last 10 favs won

19 came from the first 4  in the betting

Two 20/1 winners,  but the remaining 19 were 13/2 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-13 to 9-8

Official Rating

16 had an OR and ALL 16 were rated 110+

15 of those 16 had OR's of 113+

8 of the last 9 winners had OR's  of 121+

Age

ALL aged 3-7

7yo's are best on strike rate with 1 winner from 5 runners (20%)

3yo's have have by far the  best overall record though, with 12-68 (18%)

5 & 6yo's are next best with 3-23 (13%) and 1-9 (11%) respectively

4yo's bring up the rear with 4-56 (7%)

Profile

19 had 1-6 runs in the preceding year

19 had 1-5 runs that season

20 finished in the first two last time (27% of last time winners & 24% of last time seconds). The other was third

ALL had won over a minimum of 7F

17 won over a mile plus – up to 10F (1 winner)

ALL had ran over a mile plus

Only 2 had won over further

17 were distance winners

ALL last ran 16-60 days ago

Best trials (with runners)

The St James's Palace Stakes has produced 8 winners of this.WITHOUT PARROLE won with 5yo LORD GLITTERS 1L back in second

The Queen Anne Stakes has produced 4 winners. LORD GLITTERS and LIGHTNING SPEAR finished second and third with BEAT THE BANK in sixth and SO BELOVED in ninth

Galileo sired 4 out of the last 15 winners (2 were the all time great Frankel). GUSTAV KLIMT is the only representative

Trainers (represented)

Aidan O'Brien has won this 5 times

The Gosden yard is bang in form with 9 of his last 28 runners winning 

CONCLUSION

19 of the last 21 winners came from the first 4 in the betting and were 13/2 or less

Fourth fav GUSTAV KLIMT has not won over a ile or more (unlike 17 of the last 21 winners). Also out of first 2 in last run (unlike 20 previous winners)

Second fav EXPERT EYE also lacks a win beyond 7F

Shortlist

BEAT THE BANK  ticks all the boxes. but has the one drawback of age, as 4yo's have the worst record of the horses aged 3-7 who have won this.

Unbeaten WITHOUT PAROLE ticks every trends box.

Selection

As the St James's Palace House Stakes winner at Royal Ascot, and given the amazing record of favs in this, WITHOUT PAROLE is a very strong trends selection and is taken to land this for the in form gosden yard.

At 7/4 with Hills, Paddy Power and Bet365, you won't get rich backing this one – but I don't see the point of backing good priced losers against rock solid favs.

Sat 28/7/18

Ascot 3.00

Gigaset International Stake (Heritage Handicap) 7F

Class 2

Last 20 runnings

Market

Just 2 each for the first and second favs

15/20 winners have come from the 1st 9 in the SP betting.

12/20 winners have come from the 1st 7 in the SP betting.

6/20 winners have come from the 1st 3 in the SP betting.

Surprise winners at 50/1, 40/1, 33/1 (twice)& 25/1 but 15/20 winners have won at odds between 5/2 and 12/1

Best stats are 12/20 winners have won at odds of between 9/2 and 12/1

Weight

All winners have come from 7-12 to 9-7 , so it is relatively open.

14/20 winners carried 7-12 to 9-0.

Official Ratings

The OR range of winners has been between 88 – 106

19/20 winners come from this OR range.

Age

3 yo have only a 2% strike rate with 64 trying and only 1 winner.

4yo  have ran 171 times with 13 wins – an 8% S/R.

5 yo have ran 115 times with 5 wins – a 4% S/R

19/20 winners of the race have come from 4 yo and 5 y olds.

Profile

11/20 winners had between 5 and 8 runs in the last year.

18/20 winners had between 2 – 6 runs in that season.

15 finished in the first 9 last time

11 in the first 3, of which 6 won

All winners (the last 20/20 )  had last ran between 1 and 60 days.

13/20 winners had between 1 and 2 wins at the distance (7f)

11 winners of this race had competed in three races. The Bunbury Cup at Newmarket (7f) / The 1 mile Handicap at Newmarket (8f) and The Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot(8f).

Trainers

Richard Fahey has won this 3 times – in fact 2 of the last 3n- he runs 5

Mark Johnston has taken 3 renewals including 2 of the last 5 – so these two trainers have taken 4 of the last 5 runnings! His only runner is CARDSHARP

Willie Haggas  has had a 41% SR over the past 14 days with14/38 winners. MUBTASIM is his sole entry

Archie Watson has had 8 winners from 24 runners in the same period. He runs CHESSMAN

Conclusion

Assuming no shocks and working off the trend that 15 past winners were returned 12/1 or less, there is only one with a perfect trends profile – David Elswoth's course and distance winner RIPP ORF

Widely available at 10/1

SAT 21/7/18

NEWBURY 2.15

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT

CLASS 2

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

Favourites have won 6 times  and 2nd favs twice (13%)  

3rd favs fare a little better with 4/22 ( 18% SR).

Overall 56% of winners have come from the first three in the betting ( including joints – co favs 2nd favs etc)

1st and 2nd favs have won with odds between 9/2 and 6/1 ( 25% S/R)

16 came from the first 5 in the meeting

Winners at 100/1, 28/1, 25/1 & 20/1. The remaining 17 were 14/1 or less

Weight

The last 20 runs show no discernable advantage between the weight carried and the range is between 7 -12 and 9 – 4.

But only one winner has carried more than 9-1

Official Ratings (OR)

17 had no OR

3 of those 4 had OR's of  85-88 while the other was rated 104

Age

All are 2 year olds

Profile

All previous winners had ran between 1 to 5 times . Those who had 3 runs ihave yielded 11  winners from 125 runners (9% S/R), by far (double) the best record of the others.

17/20 winners have won at the distance between once and four times. 

17/20 winners ran between 5f and 6f previously.

18/20 winners finished between 1st and 8th on previous run – 8 won

19/20 winners of this race ran within the last 8 to 60 days.

Best Trials

Best races to use as a guide for this race are three of the 2yo races at Ascot. The Windsor Castle Stakes/ Queen Mary Stakes and The Norfolk Stakes. These three Ascot races  have produced 10/20 winners of The Weatherbys Sprint. 

TIN HAT was just over 3L fifth in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes

LITTLE KIM was beaten little more than a length when 8th in the G2 Queen Mary. RED BALLOONS was 14th and SNAZZY 17th

KINKS was beaten 4L sixth in the G2 Norfolk Stakes.

Trainers

Richard Fahey has won this race 3 times in the last 5 runnings.

Kevin Ryan: 2/7 winners at the course with his 2yo's 

CONCLUSION

Richard Fahey could make it 4 wins from the last 6 runnings with his unplaced Queen Mary runner, RED BALLOONS (won well since), the only runner with a perfect trends profile.

Best priced 12/1 with Bet365

SATURDAY 14/7/18

NEWMARKET 2.15

JULY CUP

GROUP 1

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Good race for favs with 8 winners, but not so for second favs with just one. The market has consistently got it right between the top two in the betting.

17 came from the first 5 in the betting

Winners at 50/1, 22/1 & 20/1, but the other 18 were all 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-13 to 9-6

Official Rating (OR)

15 had an OR and ALL were rated 107+

8 of the last 9 had OR's of 114+

Age

ALL aged 3-6

3yo's best with 8 wins from 84 runs (10%)

5 & 4yo's not far behind on 5-63 (8%) and 7-97 (7%) respectively

6yo's have a poor record with 1-30 (3%)

Profile

18 had 1-7 runs in the preceding year

17 had 1-3 runs that season

18 finished in the first 5 last time – 7 won

17 had won over 6F+

19 had run over 6F+

15 were distance winners

20 had their last run 16-60 days ago

Best trials

6 ran in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. SIR DANCEALOT and REDKIRK WARRIOR ran down the field in that event

5 ran in the King's Stand Stakes  won by current fav, BLUE POINT

2 ran in the Commonwealth Cup, which is quite a feat as that Royal Ascot G1 has only been run 4 times! EQTIDAAR won that.

Trainers

AP O'Brien has won this 3 times

John Gosden has had 2 winners from 7  runners in the past fortnight

Sir Michael Stoute is 8-19 with his ru nners in the pst two weeks

CONCLUSION

Shortlist:

BLUE POINT is interesting as the fav who won one of the best trials last time.

However, I get the impression he may be better over the minimum trip, having won the G1, 5F, Kings Stand and, a head second in his penultimate race, an 800K G2 at Meydan. 

Last of 9 in between in a 6F G1 in Japan.

DREAMFIELD is stepping up from handicap company – albeit a half length runner up in the top class £109K Wokingham at Royal Ascot. The Wokingham has not provided the winner of this over the 21 year period we are studying.

Only his fifth run and open to improvement – but will need to. His in form trainer is a plus but his OR of 107 does illustrate he will probably have to improve around half a stone to win this

EQTIDAAR won the G1, £248K, Commonwealth Cup the day after the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, in a time 0.3 seconds faster – around 3 lengths – than DREAMFIELDS race.  

That race has only been run 4 times and yet has provided 2 winners of this!

Selection

EQTIDAAR is the confident trends selection, especially given the red hot form of the Stoute yard.

6/1 with Ladbrokes and Skybet and I will stick my neck out and say he may well go off fav

SATURDAY 7/7/18

HAYDOCK 1.45

OLD NEWTON CUP

HANDICAP

CLASS 2 HERITAGE

LAST  21 RUNNINGS

Market:

2 favs and 2 second favs won

17 came from the first 7 in the betting

Winners at 40/1, 25/1, 16/1 & 14/1, all the other 17 were 12/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-12 to 9-10

20 (including the last 16) carried 8-6+

19 carried 9-4 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 77-104

18 rated 97 or less

20 rated 85+

Age

20 aged 4-6

4yo's are best with 14-39 (10%)

6yo's are next best with 3-63 (7%)

5yo's are 3-78 (4%)

There has been one winning 7yo from 24 to try (4%)

Profile

17 had 2-8 runs in the preceding year

19 had 1-5 runs that season

17 finished in the first 9 last time

10 finished in the first two – 6 won

20 had won over 1m2.5f +

19 had run over 1m4f+

ALL last ran 90 days ago or less

No horse has won this more than once in the period we are examining

Best trial

Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (22/6/18, 5.35 at Royal Ascot) is by far the best trial with 5 winners coming from that race. CROWNED EAGLE finished 11L sixth.

Trainers

Marco Botti and Mark Johnston have won 2 each of the last 5 runnings!

There seems to be a trend for trainers to win this once again within 2 years, if they are going to have a second win. With that in mind David O'Meara (who won this the season before last) comes into the reckoning.

Roger Charlton has his horses in fine form with 7 winners from his last 20 runners

CONCLUSION

3 satisfy nearly all the trends but only one has a perfect trends profile.

Shortlist:

SOCIETY RED's trends downfall is that he has had 11 runs in over the past year. Another (non trends) concern is his 11L 9th of 9 in his only attempt over 12F.

GOLDEN WOLF has all the trends bar a lack of a win over 10.5F+. He will stay alright as he ran second over 1m6f last time and, the time before, finished 6L second, over a mile and a half, behind emphatic Duke of Edinbugh winner, Dash of Spice.

ATKINSON GRIMSHAW  has no trends flaws and ran a fine 3/4L second over 10F on seasonal debut and first run for Iain Jardine. No worries on trip as he won over 1m4.5f at Chester last season.

Selection:

ATKINSON GRIMSHAW has the perfect trends profile and is the selection.

14/1 with Bet365 & Racebets