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Imperial Cup 2019

SATURDAY 9/3/19

SANDOWN 2.25

THE IMPERIAL CUP

CLASS 3 HANDICAP HURDLE

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 7 but the second fav 0, implying the market gets it right between the first two

21 came from the first 10 in the betting

20 from the first 9

16 from the first 6

Winners at 33/1 and three won at 20/1, but the remaining 18 were returned 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 10-00 to 11-10

20 carried 11-2 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 114-138

The last 12 winners all had OR’s of 125+

19 were rated 133 or less

Age

ALL aged 4-9

4yo’s best strike rate with 2-12 (17%)

5yo’s next with 9-97 (11%)

6, 8 & 9yo’s all on 4% with 5-127, 2-45 & 1-24 respectively

7yo’s are 3-94 (3%)

Profile

ALL had 2-13 runs in the past year

21 ran 2-12 runs in the last year

19 had 2-9 runs in the past year

16 had 2-6 runs in the past year

20 had 2-5 runs that season

NONE had more than 5 runs that season

16 of the 19 last time finishers were in the first 4

Of the non finishers, 1-1 was brought down and 2-14 pulled up

20 had won over 2m but none further than 2m5F

ALL had run over 2 miles and half a furlong minimum

ALL last ran 8-120 days ago

No horse won this more than once

No runners from the best trial – the Betfair Hurdle

Trainers/Jockeys

The Pipes have dominated this with 7 winners (4 for Martin and 3 for David)

Nicky Henderson’s yard is in fine form with 10 winners rom 35 runners over the last 14 days. His runners have scored 41-145 at the course and 29-97 over hurdles here.

Daryl Jacob is 25-81 riding for him

Nico de Boinville is 129-445

Paul Nicholls is another inform trainer with 19-59 in the last 2 weeks.

Jane Williams is 1-1 over the past fortnight, 1-2 at the course and 1-1 with her hurdlers here.

Chester Williams is 5-17 for her

Fergal O’Brien is 8-26 here and 4-12 with his hurdlers

Nigel Hawke is 3-9 at Sandown

Charlie Hammond is 22-79 riding for Dr Richard Newland

Sam Twiston-Davies is 3-8 for Alistair Ralph

CONCLUSION

There is quite a small OR band, 125-138, which knocks the top 6 of the 16 runners out.

If we look for 5yo’s with the requisite number of runs and a first 4 finish, we have:

Shortlist

MALAYA who looks like going off second fav in a race where NO second fav has won for 21 years

EXTRA MAG (trained by David Pipe). Nb the first time cheek pieces.

MONSIEUR LE COQ who will probably go off fav.

Selection:

The trends have it between the last two named and I am going to choose EXTRA  MAG.

The record of the Pipes in this race swayed me.

9/1 with Hills 

Result:

EXTRA MAG was a non runner

MALAYA ended up fourth fav and, despite being hampered on the home turn  and nearly falling 2 out she kept on well to get up close home. She was shortlisted and only rejected on the  basis of being second fav. Won 7/1.

Ironically, the morning fav and sole other shortlisted horse, Monsieur Le Coq, was the one to carry the second fav hoodoo and just got collared by the winner up the hill to finish second at 7/2.

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