Stayers Hurdle 2019
THE STAYERS HURDLE
LAST 21 RUNNINGS
Skewed a little by the record of the magnificent Big Bucks whose 4 straight wins 2009-12 included 3 as fav
7 favs won but just 1 second fav
ALL came from the first 9 in the betting
20 from the first 8
18 from the first 6
16 came from the first 4 in the market
Winners at 40/1, 20/1, 16/1 & 14/1. The other 17 were returned 12/1 or less
ALL carried 11-10
Mares are 0-6 in this with 2 placed.
Official Rating (OR)
17 had an OR of which ALL were rated minimum 148
16 of those 17 were rated 153 plus
ALL winners 6 to 9yo
5yo's are 0-18
Not much in it with 6yo's just best on 6 wins from 59 runs (10%)
7. 8 & 9yo's are all on 9% with 7-77, 5-57 and 3-35 respectively
6 to 9yo is a must. But which age of these would be a tie breaker.
20 had 2-6 runs in the preceding year
20 had 1-4 runs that season
Only last years winner, Penhill, won on seasonal debut. But only 6 had tried before.
ALL except a faller posted a first 4 finish last run with 11 winning
18 had won over two and a half miles or further
ALL had ran over two and a half miles plus
20 last ran 16-90 days ago
The Cleeve Hurdle is by far the best with 7 winners coming from that race. PAISLEY PARK won that 12L
The Long Walk Hurdle gave us 3 winners with PAISLEY PARK winning that too.
Willie Mullins has won it the last twice.
Mr WP Mullins, Paul Townend & Ruby Walsh are 88/252, 140/488 & 106/353 for Mullins respectively
Harry Cobden is 9/31 for Colin Tizzard
Daryl Jacob is 25/81 for Nicky Henderson
PAISLEY PARK won the Cleeve Hurdle (same C/D) in a time 21.2 seconds faster than PENHILL won last years Stayers hurdle!
This confims last years race was ran at a crawl and that PAISLEY PARK is classy. Worthy fav with a perfect trends profile.
Last years 2L second, SUPERSUNDAE would appreciate a stronger pace this season and – as one with all the trends bar a last time win – looks a decent each way prospect.
BLACK OP qualifies on all the trends too. Could be a lot closer to PAISLEY PARK than the 14L deficit last time on this softer ground.
Is 0-4 at Cheltenham but 2-3 place efforts here include a second in a G1 in January 2018 going under just 3/4L on heavy to Santini. Followed up with a two and a half lengths second to Samcro in the G1 Ballymore Hurdle at the festival, over 2m5F on soft.
PAISLEY PARK has a flawless trends profile has won both the best trials.
Improved markedly last time, butthat was on faster ground. Fine on soft though.
He is the win selection at 2/1 with Paddy Power.
Only lack of a win last time stops BLACK OP from having a perfect trends profile too and I get the feeling his return to hurdles last time was a reccy mission.
I will take a chance on his stamina and back him each way to get least closer this time. If he stays, this ground should suit him better than last time.
14/1 with Hills, Bet365 & Skybet