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Stayers Hurdle 2019

THURSDAY 14/3/19

CHELTENHAM 3.30

THE STAYERS HURDLE

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Skewed a little by the record of the magnificent Big Bucks whose 4 straight wins 2009-12 included 3 as fav

7 favs won but just 1 second fav

ALL came from  the first 9 in the betting

20  from the first 8

18 from the first  6

16 came from  the first 4 in the market

Winners at 40/1, 20/1, 16/1 & 14/1. The other 17 were returned 12/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 11-10 

Mares are 0-6 in this with 2 placed.

Official Rating (OR)

17 had an OR of which ALL were rated minimum 148

16 of those 17 were rated 153 plus

Age

ALL winners 6 to 9yo

5yo's are 0-18

Not much in it with 6yo's just best on 6 wins from 59 runs (10%)

7. 8 & 9yo's are all on 9% with  7-77, 5-57 and 3-35 respectively

6 to 9yo is a must. But which age of these would be a tie breaker.

Profile

20 had 2-6 runs in the preceding year

20 had 1-4 runs that season

Only last years winner, Penhill, won on seasonal debut. But only 6 had tried before.

ALL except a faller posted a first 4 finish last run with 11 winning

18 had won over two and a half miles or further

ALL had ran over two and a half miles plus

20 last ran 16-90 days ago

Best Trials

The Cleeve Hurdle is  by far the best with  7 winners coming from that race. PAISLEY PARK won that 12L 

The Long Walk Hurdle  gave us 3 winners with PAISLEY PARK winning that too.

Trainers

Willie Mullins has won it the last twice.

Mr WP Mullins, Paul Townend & Ruby Walsh are 88/252, 140/488 & 106/353 for Mullins respectively

Harry Cobden is 9/31 for Colin Tizzard

Daryl Jacob is 25/81 for Nicky Henderson

CONCLUSION

Shortlist:

PAISLEY PARK  won the Cleeve Hurdle (same C/D) in a time 21.2 seconds faster than PENHILL won last years Stayers hurdle!

This confims last years race was ran at a crawl and that PAISLEY PARK is classy. Worthy fav with a perfect trends profile.

Last years 2L second, SUPERSUNDAE would appreciate a stronger pace this season and – as one with all the trends bar a last time win – looks a decent each way prospect.

BLACK OP qualifies on all the trends too. Could be a lot closer to PAISLEY PARK than the 14L deficit last time on this softer ground.

Is 0-4 at Cheltenham but 2-3 place efforts here include a second in a G1 in January 2018 going under just 3/4L on heavy to Santini. Followed up with a two  and a half  lengths second to Samcro in the G1 Ballymore Hurdle at the festival, over 2m5F on soft.

Selections:

PAISLEY PARK has a flawless trends profile has won both the best trials.

Improved markedly last time, butthat was on faster ground. Fine on soft though.

He is the win selection at 2/1 with Paddy Power.

Only lack of a win last time stops BLACK OP from having a perfect trends profile too and I get the feeling his return to hurdles last time was a reccy mission.

I will take a chance on his stamina and back him each way to get least closer this time. If he stays, this ground should suit him better than last time.

14/1 with Hills, Bet365 & Skybet

 

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