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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2019

FRIDAY 15/3/19

CHELTENHAM 3.30

THE GOLD  CUP

GRADE 1

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 8, second fav 3 and the thrid fav 5. So 16 came from the first 3 in the betting

19 came from he first 8 in betting

17 from the first four

Winners at 25/1 & 20/1 twice but the rest were 16/1 or less

17 of the last 18 were 7/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 11-10 to 12-00

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 16 with an OR were rated 152+

15 of those 16 were rated 166+

Age

ALL aged 6-10

6yo's have the best strike rate with 1-6 (17%)

7yo's are 5-44 (11%)

9yo's are 7-76 (9%)

8yo's are 7-84 (8%)

10yo's are just 1-50 (2%)

Profile

20 had 6 runs or less in the previous year

20 had 5 runs or less that season

ALL bar one  completed last time

Of which all finished in the first 6 last time

17 finished in the first 3 – 14 won

ALL had won over 2m4.5f+

17 had won over 3 miles+

ALL had run over 3 miles

Only 2 had won over further than the Gold Cup trip (3m2.5f)

ALL last ran 31-120 days ago

19 last ran 31-90 days ago

Best Trials:

The King George is best with 6 winners coming from  this race.

CLAN DES OBEAUX beat former Gold Cup  winner  THISTLECRACK 1.5L with last year's Gold Cup winner, NATIVE RIVER, a further 12L back in third.

DOUBLE SHUFFLE and MIGHT  BITE finished way back in fifth and seventh respectively.

BRISTOL DE MAI fell  at the 9th

The Denman Chase is next best having produced 4 winners.

CLAN DES OBEAUX won this too, As 2/5 fav, easily  by 11L .

Leopardstown's Lexus Chase has provided 3 winners.

KEMBOY won. SHATTERED LOVE was last over the line in tenth.

The Irish Gold Cup  has given us two Gold Cup winners.

BELLSHILL won.    .

The Cotswold Chase also gave us two winners.

 ELEGANT ESCAPE finished 3/4L second.

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has won 4 renewals of this and his yard is in flying form with 13/43 winners the past fortnight

Nicky Henderson has won it twice and Nico de Boinville is 131/452 riding for him

Patrick Kelly has a 1/3 strike rate here with his chasers and Davy Russel is 9/29 riding for him

Ruby Walsh is 106/353 , Paul Townend 140//488 and Mr PW Mullins 88/253  respectively, riding for Willie Mullins

CONCLUSION

Starting with the trend  of 17 of the last 18  winners being 8/1 or less and from  the first 4 in the betting:

King George and Denman Chase winner, currently vying for favouritism, CLAN DES OBEAUX has a perfect trends profile and is handled by the race’s  top trainer over the past two decades. Seems to be still improving.

Won the best and second best trials

Joint fav PRESENTING PERCY won the G1 Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Chase over 3 miles at last year’s festival.

Only one run this season and that wasn’t in any of the good trials  (the King George and Denman Chase combined produced 11 of the past 21 winners).

Also held by the formerCLAN DES OBEAUX on a line through RSA second MONALEE. Possibilities.

The only other horse 7/1 or less is King George third is NATIVE RIVER.

They don’t often come back. Only the very lightly raced BEST MATE and the all-time great KAUTO STAR have won  this more  than once.

Winning this race (even running close in it) seems to take a lot out of a horse. His runs this season would suggest this and only  3 horses have won this after a place effort.

Well held by the selection on  King George running.

Looking outside the first 3.

The next two, KEMBOY (who is 71 or less with a couple of bookies), and BELLSHILL, are trained by Willie Mullins who has an awful record in a race he is yet to win.

One I am interested in at a big price, is BRISTOL DE MAI.

Our trends selection for the Betfair Chase at Haydock over 3m, he had last year’s Gold Cup first and second behind him as well  as this season’s King George 1-2.

He has been thought of as a Haydock specialist (beat Cue card 57L in the same race  the year before!) but, had a wind op in the close season and was going ok when  he “endured a rough passage early on” (RP) and fell at the ninth in the King George.

According to his shrewd trainer (Nigel Twiston-Davies), the horse is a little  fragile and doesn’t  take too  much racing. Having had the wind op, only one and a half runs this season and holding all the top English horses on form (though the fav has improved since the Betfair Chase) he seems to have been laid out for this.

Last time fallers are 0-10 but with 3 placed the current 25/1 with Boylesport still looks generous.

Shortlist

PRESENTING PERCY

CLAN DES OBEAUX

BRISTOL DE MAI

Selections

CLAN DES OBEAUX to win – for all the reasons above – 11/2 at Boylesports

BRISTOL DE MAI each way for the reasons discussed – 25/1 widely

 

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