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Lincoln 2019

SATURDAY 30/3/19

DONCASTER 3.35

THE LINCOLN

CLASS 2 HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

 6 favs won and 2 second favs

20 came from the first 12 In the betting

Winners at 33/1 & 25/1, but the other 20 were 20/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-6 to 9-10

21 carried 9-5 or less

 

Official Ratings (OR)

ALL 86-107

21 were rated 104 or less

20 had OR’s of 102 or less

Age

ALL aged 4-8 – EXCEPT 7yo’s who are 0-56

4yo’s are best with 10 winners from 146 runners (7%)

6 and 8yo’s are on 5% with 5 -111 and 1-22 respectively

5yo’s are 6-149 (4%)

Profile

20 had 4-10 runs in the past year

ALL were making their seasonal flat turf debut

18 posted a first 9 finish last time

12 were in the first 4 – 8 won

ALL 20 that had previously won had done so over 7F+

18 had won over a mile or further

ALL had run over 1m+

18 last ran 121-365 days

4 last ran 8-15 days ago on the all weather

Draw

Those drawn 1-3 won 5 times

Those drawn in the highest three numbers (20, 21 & 22 in this case) won 4

Best Trials

The Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial produced two winners

ZWAYYAN won that with the 9yo BREDEN second, 7yo THIRD TIME LUCKY was 3rd, AQUARIUM was 5th,  MASHAM STAR 6th and WAHASH was 10th.

The Cambridgeshire also gave us two winners

MASHAM STAR was 12th, THIRD TIME LUCKY 14th, ZWAYYAN was 16th, WAARIF was 17th and VENTURA KNIGHT 24th.

Trainers

Richard Fahey has won this twice. Both in the last 7 runnings

Charlie Appleby has had 1 winner from 1 runner in the last week and is 4/14  with his older horses here.

James Doyle is 43/138 riding for him

Adrian McGuinness is 4/9 with his runners in the last fortnight

George Scott is 2/5 with his 4yo+ runners here

Syvestre de Sousa is 2/4 for Andrew Balding

Andrea Atzeni is 2/6 for Alan King

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow it down to 4

Shortlist

ZWAYYAN won one of the best trials at Wolverhampton. This last time winning 6yo ticks all the trends boxes. An age of 4 would have been ideal, but 6 is second best age.

Also drawn 1.

AUXERRE IS a 4yo, ticks all the trends boxes, won last time and is trained by an in-form yard, with a good record at the course with their older horses and a jockey on-board with a very good record when riding for this trainer.

KYRNEN was third in this last year. This 5yo has all the trends pluses (5 is good but not best age) and another with a plum draw (22).

BERINGER is an interesting Alan King raider with Atzeni having a good strike rate when riding for him.

All his best form seems to be over 10F, though he has won over 7F.

Selections

I like the look of the two last time winners and will split my small stake between them.

ZWAYYAN would be my choice if I had to name just one, because of being the best trial winner and having the plum 1 draw.

14/1 generally

But AUXERRE looks difficult to oppose given his profile and connections’ record at this course.

4/1 widely