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Aintree – Red Rum Handicap Chase 2019

WEDNESDAY 4/4/19

AINTREE 4.40

RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE

GRADE 3

LAST 22 RUNNERS

Market

Fav won 5 and second fav 2

19 came from the first 10 in the betting 

16 came from the first 6

Winners at 33/1, 25/1 & 20/1 twice. The other 18 were 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 10-00 to 12-00

18 of the last 20 winners carried 11-5 or less

20 carried 10-2+

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 129-154

20 were rated 143 or less

Age

ALL aged 5-11 EXCEPT 10yo's who are 0-34

5yo's have won once from just 7 runners (14%)

7 & 9yo's are both on 9% with 6-70 and 7-75 respectively

6. 8 & 11yo's are on 7% with 2-28, 5-71 and 1-14 respectively

Profile

ALL had 1-11 runs in the last year

ALL had 1-10 runs that season

17 completed last run

16 of these finished in the first 9

15 finished in the first 7

13 in the first 5

21 won over between 2m – 2m4.5F – no further

20  ran over 2m1F+

19 had  won over further than this 2 mile trip

17 were distance winners

ALL last ran 8-365 days ago

Best Trial

7 came from the Grand Annual Chase at the festival.

BRELAN D'AS was about 4L third, FOREST BIHAN fourth and WHATSWRONGWITHYOU seventh

Trainers

Philip Kirby has had 6 wins from 12 runners in the past 14 days and is 1/2 with his chasers here.

The David Pipe yard is bang in form with 5/18 winners in the past fortnight

Nico de Boinville is 127/446 for Nicky Henderson

D Meyler is 3/8 riding for Sean O'Brien

CONCLUSION

Shortlist

BRELAN D'AS has a perfect trends profile.

Particularly important is his 4L third in the best trial – the Grand Annual  at Cheltenham.

Next best was one of our two Cheltenham Plate picks (the other won), EAMON AN CNOIC, who was just 3.5L fourth behind Siruh de Luc.

Perfect trends proifle as the weights stand but the Plate is not a good trial for this.

Selection:

I can't split them so am backing both:

BRELAN D'AS is 8/1 generally

EAMON AN CNOIC is 11/2 with Bet365 Paddy Power & Boylesport

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