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Aintree – Topham Chase 2019

AINTREE 4.05

THE TOPHAM CHASE

GRADE 3 HANDICAP

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won twice, as did the second fav.

16 came from the first 9 in the betting

Two 50/1 winners, 33/1, 25/1 and 22/1 twice.

The other 16 were all priced 14/1  or less

Weight

ALL carried 10-00 to 11-8

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 115-152

20 had OR's of 124+

20 were rated 141 or less

Age

ALL aged 5-11

5yo's have by far the best strike rate with 2 winners from just 10 runners (20%)

6yo's are 2-24 (8%)

10yo's are 7-135 (5%)

9yo's 6-144 (4%)

8yo's 3-119 (3%)

11yo's  1-62 (2%)

7yo's 1-70 (1%)

Profile

ALL ran 3-10 times in the past year

20 ran 3-7 times that season

21 completed last time (no completers are 0-91)

18 finished in the first 9

11 finished in the first 4

20 had won over 2m3F+

21 had run over 2m5F

ALL last ran 90 days ago or less

19 ran 30 days ago or less and that group have a  far higher strike rate

 

Best Trials

6 winners came from  the Festival Plate, where JANIKA finsiehd a close second

2 came from the Grand Annual Chase won by CROKO BAY

2 came from the Kim Muir won by ANY SECOND NOW

Trainers/Jockeys

Peter Bowen is the top trainer in this with 4 wins

Nicky Henderson has won it 3 times

Willie Mullins is 7/18 over the past two weeks

AMy Murphy is 1-3

Peter Fahey is 1-2 at the course and Barry Geraghty is 2/7 for him

Harry Whittington is 1-3 in chases at Aintree

Daryl Jacob is 25-83, Nico de Boinville is 12-44 & Jmes Bowen 30-107 riding for Henderson

Nick Sholfield is 7/22 riding for Paul Nicholls

Paul Townend is 142/499 for Willie Mulllins

Mark Enright is 2/7 for Ross  O'Sullivan

CONCLUSION

Shortlist

JANIKA ran a fine second in the best trial and has a good profile.

The only problem is his handicap mark of 162. He would be the highest rated winner of this by 10lbs in the last 23 years!

20 of the last 22 winners were rated 141 or less.

When we look at that weight group, the only one with a perfect profile is  CALL IT MAGIC

Selection

CALL IT MAGIC is the only one who meets all the trends criteria 

9/1 with Ladbroke, Coral and Betway