Aintree Grand National 2019
THE GRAND NATIONAL
LAST 22 RUNNINGS
Favs won 4 times and the second fav twice
13 came from the first 8 in the betting
A real mixture with ALL winners priced 7/1 to 100/1!
Winners at 100/1, 66/1, four won at 33/1, two at 25/1, but the remaining 14 were 20/1 or less
ALL carried 10-00 to 11-9
21 carried 11-6 or less
20 carried 10-3+
Official Rating (OR)
ALL rated 136-160
ALL aged 8-12
ALL the 8-11yo's have strike rates of 3%
8yo's have won 4-138
9yo's are 7-238
The only winning 12yo was trained by the great trainer of the great Grand National legend, Red Rum – Ginger McCain. His Amberleigh House won it in 2004.
So, I will look at 8 to 11yo's
ALL ran 3-10 times in the past year
20 ran 3-7 times that season
Only 1 failed to complete last time – a faller (1-18 of last time fallers won)
20 posted a first 8 finish last run
17 finished in the first 5
21 had won between 3m and 4m2F
ALL had run over 3m1F+
5 had run in this race before
21 last ran 16-60 days ago
Haydock Grand National Trial gave us two past winners
RAMSES DE THAIX was second
Glenfarcas Chase at Cheltenham provided two winners
Current fav, TIGER ROLL, won that. The easiest win at the festival
Midlands Grand National threw up two winners
FOLSOM BLUE was a a plugging on sixth.
The Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at Cheltenham has been responsible for two winner also
A TOI PHIL ran fifth
Gordon Elliott has won this twice
Nigel Twiston-Davies has had 2 winners as well.
Philip Kirby has had 4 winners from 14 runners over the past two weeks
Willie Mullins is 7/19 and Ruby Walsh is 99/342 riding for him. Paul Townend is 142/500
Philip Hobbs 8/26
Jane Williams 1/2
Jessica Harrington is 2-7 at the course
Robert Walford is 2/3 overall and 1/1 with his chasers here.
Daryl Jacob is 25/84 for Nicky Henderson.
Henry Brooke is 2/4 for NW Alexander
The Irish have a disproportionately good record in this, having trained 8 of the last 22 winners.
No horse other than Red Rum has won this more than once since 1974, but TIGER ROLL could be the one to end that run.
Would also be the shortest priced winner in living memory too.
But has had a perfect prep – won the same prep race last year, but this time was ultra impressive .
Other than those two trends negatives, has a good trends profile.
I can't help but wonder if he peaked at Cheltenham though.
From the trials:
Haydock runner-up, RAMSES DE TEILLEE is a 7yo – no winner over the period we are looking at
Midlands National 6th FOLSOM BLUE plodded on but is now 12.
Perhaps the other Gigginstown/Elliott horse, A TOI PHIL is more interesting, but he has never won beyond 2m6.5F.
Applying the trends to those that posted a first 5 finish last time and 33/1 or less leave:
TIGER ROLL could be the one to emulate Red Rum and win this more than once. the best chance I can recall of following up. Would have been caught in another stride last year by PLEASANT COMPANY in last year's race though, which does raise slight doubts as to whether he was at the limit of his stamina. Though the third was 11L back.
LAKE VIEW LAD is northern trained and Henry Brooke is 2/4 riding for NW Alexander. Beaten 3.5L third in the Ultima at the festival
DOUNIKOS another runner for dual winner Gordon Elliott
JURY DUTY yet another Gordon Elliott inmate
VINTAGE CLOUD (first run after a wind op) was beaten 1.25L second with LAKE VIEW LAD 2L back in third in the Ultima.
WALK IN THE MILL is trained by Robert Walford who has a 2/3 strike rate at Aintree and is 1/1 with his chasers.
I think TIGER ROLL is the most likely winner but there are those two trends negatives and a slight nniggle about the trip (the official going was Heavy last year but the clock said Good to Soft)
My outlook is that if he wins I enjoy watching history being made. That will be reward enough.
But he his NOT a selection.
There just aren't the hours in the day to thoroughly study the form, even of the shortlisted horse.
But, in a unique race like this, we are in the dark to a great extent.
I am going to go for horses that fit the trends AND have good trainer and/or jockey stats.
LAKE VIEW LAD -18/1 Bet365
DOUNIKOS – 33/1 with Paddy Power and Skybet
JURY DUTY – 16/1 generally
WALK IN THE MILL – 28/1 with Hills and Betvictor