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Aintree Grand National 2019

SATURDAY 6/4/19

AINTREE 5.15

THE GRAND NATIONAL

HANDICAP CHASE

GRADE 3

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Favs won 4 times and the second fav twice

13 came from the first 8 in the betting

A real mixture with ALL winners priced 7/1 to 100/1!

Winners at 100/1, 66/1, four won at 33/1, two at 25/1, but the remaining 14 were 20/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 10-00 to 11-9

21 carried 11-6 or less

20 carried 10-3+

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 136-160

Age

ALL aged 8-12

ALL the 8-11yo's have strike rates of 3%

8yo's have won 4-138

9yo's are 7-238

10yo's 6-201

11yo's 4-138

The only winning 12yo was trained by the great trainer of the great Grand National legend, Red Rum – Ginger McCain. His Amberleigh House won it in 2004.

So, I will look at 8 to 11yo's

Profile

ALL ran 3-10 times in the past year

20 ran 3-7 times that season

Only 1 failed to complete last time – a faller (1-18 of last time fallers won)

20 posted a first 8 finish last run

17 finished in  the first 5

21 had won between 3m and 4m2F

ALL had run over 3m1F+

5 had run in this race before

21 last ran 16-60 days ago

Best Trials

Haydock Grand National Trial gave us two past winners

RAMSES DE THAIX was second

Glenfarcas Chase at Cheltenham provided two winners

Current fav, TIGER ROLL, won that. The easiest win at the festival

Midlands Grand National threw up two winners

FOLSOM BLUE was a a plugging on sixth.

The Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at Cheltenham has been responsible for two winner also 

A TOI PHIL ran fifth

Trainers

Gordon Elliott has won this twice

Nigel Twiston-Davies has had 2 winners as well.

Philip Kirby has had 4 winners  from  14 runners over the past two weeks

Willie Mullins is 7/19 and Ruby Walsh is 99/342 riding for him. Paul Townend is 142/500

Philip Hobbs 8/26

Jane Williams 1/2

Jessica Harrington is 2-7 at the course

Robert Walford is 2/3 overall and 1/1 with his chasers here.

Daryl Jacob is 25/84 for Nicky Henderson.

Henry Brooke is 2/4 for NW Alexander

The Irish have a disproportionately good record in this, having trained 8 of the last 22 winners.

CONCLUSION

No horse other than Red Rum has won this more than once since 1974, but TIGER ROLL could be the one to end that run.

Would also be the shortest priced winner in living memory too.

But has had a perfect prep – won the same prep race last year, but this time was ultra impressive .

Other than those two trends negatives, has a good trends profile.

I can't help but wonder if he peaked at Cheltenham though.

From the trials:

Haydock runner-up, RAMSES DE TEILLEE is a 7yo – no winner over the period we are looking at

Midlands National 6th FOLSOM BLUE plodded on but is now 12.

Perhaps the other Gigginstown/Elliott horse, A TOI PHIL is more interesting, but he has never won beyond 2m6.5F.

Shortlist

Applying the trends to those that posted a  first 5 finish last time  and 33/1 or less leave:

TIGER ROLL could be the one to emulate Red Rum and win this more than once. the best chance I can recall of following up. Would have been caught in another stride last year by PLEASANT COMPANY in last year's race though, which does raise slight doubts as to whether he was at the limit of his stamina.  Though the third was 11L back.

LAKE VIEW LAD is northern trained and Henry Brooke is 2/4 riding for NW Alexander. Beaten 3.5L third in the Ultima at the festival

DOUNIKOS another runner for dual winner Gordon Elliott 

JURY DUTY yet another Gordon Elliott inmate

VINTAGE CLOUD  (first run after a wind op) was  beaten 1.25L second with LAKE VIEW LAD 2L back in third in the Ultima.

WALK IN THE MILL is trained by Robert Walford who has a 2/3 strike rate at Aintree and is 1/1 with his chasers.

Selections:

I think TIGER ROLL is the  most likely winner but there are those two trends negatives and a slight nniggle about the trip (the official going was Heavy last year but the clock said Good to Soft)

My outlook is that if he wins I enjoy watching history being made. That will be reward enough.

But he his NOT a selection.

There just aren't the hours in the day to thoroughly study the form, even of  the shortlisted horse.

But, in a unique race like this, we are in the dark to a great extent.

I am going to go for horses that fit the trends AND have good trainer and/or jockey stats.

LAKE VIEW LAD -18/1  Bet365

DOUNIKOS – 33/1 with Paddy Power and Skybet

JURY DUTY – 16/1 generally

WALK IN THE MILL – 28/1 with Hills and Betvictor