Scottish National 2019
LAST 22 RUNNINGS
Fav won 3 and the second fav ditto
17 came from the first 12 in the betting
Winners at 66/1, 40/1, 33/1 twice, 25/1 & 20/1 twice, make the market a poor guide to this
ALL carried 10-0 to 11-12
21 carried 11-10 or less
Official Ratings (OR)
ALL rated 124-150
21 had OR's of 148 or less
ALL aged 7-11
8yo's are best with 8-132 (6%)
11yo's next best, strike rate wise, on 3-64 (5%)
7 and 9yo's are next on 4% with 3-81 & 5-115 respectively
10 yo's are 3-91 (3%)
ALL ran 2-8 times in the preceding year
20 ran 2-6 times that season
20 had won over 2m7.5F+
ALL had run over 3m1f+
ALL bar one completed last time
20 of those 21 finished in the first 6
14 finished in the first 3 – 7 won
ALL last ran 120 days or less ago
The 4 miler, the Challenge Chase at the Cheltenham festival has bene the best guide, providing 3 winners.
IMPULSIVE STAR pulled up and SKIPTHECUDDLES unseated at the fourth.
The Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster has given us two winners of this.
CHIDSWELL won it 9L, current 8/1 fav, DINGO DOLLAR, was second and BRIAN BORANHA (1lb better off) was a further 4L back in third.
Nicky Richards is 1-3 with his runners over the last 2 weeks and Sean Quinlan is 1/3 riding for him
Graeme McPherson is 2-3 at the course and 1-1 with his chasers here.
Sean Thomas-Doyle is 1-1 at the course (a chaser)
Peter Niven has a 1-1 record here too
Michael Scudamore is 1-2 with his chasers here
Callum Bewley is 2/3 for Nigel TwistonDavies
With such a wide weight and ratings range, this doesn't look a race to go in big on.
Only one falls down on the weights trends. Ditto with the days since runs
The two that ran in the best trial didn't complete least time (21 had done so last time)
However, all the first 3 from the second best trial renew rivalry. As below:
The 7yo second in that race, DINGO DOLLAR
The 8yo third, BRIAN BORANHA
The 10yo winner, CHIDSWELL
As an 8yo, BRIAN BORANHA gets the verdict. 8YO'S have twice the strike rate of 7yo's and a 50% superior strike rate than 10yo's.
33/1 with Paddy Power and Betvictor