SATURDAY 20/4/19

MUSSELBURGH 3.00

SCOTTISH SPRINT CUP

CLASS 2 HANDICAP

LAST 19 RUNNINGS

Market

Favs won 4 and second favs won once

Market not much of a help otherwise, with winners at 50/1, 28/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1 twice.

13 were returned 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-11 to 9-11

16 carried 8-1+

15 carried 9-7 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 64-106

17 were rated 99 or less

Age

All aged 4-9

4yo’s have easily the best record in terms of both strike rate and winners, with 7 wins from 73 runners (10%)

6yo’s have the next best strike rate with 4-55 (7%)

5 & 9yo’s are 5-83 (6%) and 1-17 (6%) respectively

7 & 8yo’s are on 3% with 1-37 and 1-29 respectively

Profile

17 had 6-14 runs in the past year

ALL had 6 runs or less that season

Seasonal debutants are 2-18 (11%), second best strike rate

17 finished in the first 9 last time

12 finished in the first 4 – 7 won

ALL had won – between 5F – 6.5F

ALL had run over 6f-1m

17 were distance winners

18 last ran 90 days ago or less

Draw

There is a marked advantage for the 3 highest drawn horse, with 8 winners coming from those stalls.

Best Trial

The class 2 York 5F handicap last May.

FINAL VENTURE was half a length third. Would be higher in the handicap than 17 of the 19 former winners, a 203 day lay-off isn’t ideal – nor is aged 7

Trainers/Jockey

Michael Appleby has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

He is also 7/25 at the course and 6/21 here with his 4yo+ horses

The Easterby’s have won it twice (Mick and Tim once each)

David Griffiths has hit the ground running this flat turf season with  3/8 in the last fortnight

CONCLUSION

The trends make it difficult for the top 3 in the weights and the bottom 2.

Because the market is no real guide, there are several with a trends chance.

Last time winners have good trends. There are 3:

COPPER NIGHT has had 164 days of and has never run over 6F or further

MOKAATIL has everything going for him but his 3 runs at 6F have been modest at best

ORNATE fits the bill but has had 7 runs this year – NOT this flat season. I think the stats are based on the new all yearround season now.

We have the third from the best trial and one trained by a trainer who has won 2 of the last 5.

Shortlist

ORNATE ticks all the trends boxes except the questionable one about the number of seasonal runs

SAAHEQ has a perfect profile, his trainer has won 2 of the last 5 runnings, has a good record at the course and he has a very good draw in 15.

Selection:

For the reasons above, SAAHEQ is the sole selection.

10/1 at Hills, Bet365, Boylesports and Racebets