SCOTTISH SPRINT CUP
CLASS 2 HANDICAP
LAST 19 RUNNINGS
Favs won 4 and second favs won once
Market not much of a help otherwise, with winners at 50/1, 28/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1 twice.
13 were returned 14/1 or less
ALL carried 7-11 to 9-11
16 carried 8-1+
15 carried 9-7 or less
Official Rating (OR)
ALL rated 64-106
17 were rated 99 or less
All aged 4-9
4yo’s have easily the best record in terms of both strike rate and winners, with 7 wins from 73 runners (10%)
6yo’s have the next best strike rate with 4-55 (7%)
5 & 9yo’s are 5-83 (6%) and 1-17 (6%) respectively
7 & 8yo’s are on 3% with 1-37 and 1-29 respectively
17 had 6-14 runs in the past year
ALL had 6 runs or less that season
Seasonal debutants are 2-18 (11%), second best strike rate
17 finished in the first 9 last time
12 finished in the first 4 – 7 won
ALL had won – between 5F – 6.5F
ALL had run over 6f-1m
17 were distance winners
18 last ran 90 days ago or less
There is a marked advantage for the 3 highest drawn horse, with 8 winners coming from those stalls.
The class 2 York 5F handicap last May.
FINAL VENTURE was half a length third. Would be higher in the handicap than 17 of the 19 former winners, a 203 day lay-off isn’t ideal – nor is aged 7
Michael Appleby has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
He is also 7/25 at the course and 6/21 here with his 4yo+ horses
The Easterby’s have won it twice (Mick and Tim once each)
David Griffiths has hit the ground running this flat turf season with 3/8 in the last fortnight
The trends make it difficult for the top 3 in the weights and the bottom 2.
Because the market is no real guide, there are several with a trends chance.
Last time winners have good trends. There are 3:
COPPER NIGHT has had 164 days of and has never run over 6F or further
MOKAATIL has everything going for him but his 3 runs at 6F have been modest at best
ORNATE fits the bill but has had 7 runs this year – NOT this flat season. I think the stats are based on the new all yearround season now.
We have the third from the best trial and one trained by a trainer who has won 2 of the last 5.
ORNATE ticks all the trends boxes except the questionable one about the number of seasonal runs
SAAHEQ has a perfect profile, his trainer has won 2 of the last 5 runnings, has a good record at the course and he has a very good draw in 15.
For the reasons above, SAAHEQ is the sole selection.
10/1 at Hills, Bet365, Boylesports and Racebets