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WHITBREAD GOLD CUP 2019

SATURDAY 27/4/19

SANDOWN 3.35

THE WHITBREAD (SANDOWN GOLD CUP)

GRADE 3 HANDICAP CHASE

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won just once and second favs twice

ALL came from the first 13 in the betting

16 came from the first 8 in the betting

Winners at 40/1, 25/1 twice and 20/1. The other 17 were 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 10-00 to 11-12

7 carried 10-00

21 carried 11-7 or less

19 carried 10-13 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 126-154

20 had OR’s of 131+

19 were rated 148 or less

Age

ALL aged 6-11

7yo’s have the best strike rate with 5 winners from 50 runners (10%)

8yo’s are a very close second with 8-90 (9%)

11yo’s are 3-36 (8%)

6yo’s are 1-14 (7%)

9yo’s 4-95 (4%)

10yo’s 1-87 (1%)

Profile

21 had 1-9 runs in the last year

21 had 1-9 runs that season

17 completed last time

Unseated last time have a 3-38 record (8%) but other non finishers are 1-106

15 posted  first 5 finish last time – 3 won and 5 were second

19 had won over 3m+

ALL had run over 3m+

20 had run over 3m1F+

ALL last ran 60 days ago or less

Those that had their last run 8-15 days ago are just 1-88

Best Trials

The Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham festival has produced 5 winners

BEWARE THE BEAR won and  GIVE ME A COPPER fell.

The Scottish National  produced 3 winners

This year there is only a 14 day gap between that race and that one, which would not be good against the reocrd of horse with 8-15 days since their last .

RATHLIN ROSE was ninth and reserve, DOING FINE, was tenth.The Grand National gave us 2 former winners
JOE FARREL pulled up and ROCK THE KASBAH  was brought down

Trainers/Jockeys

Paul Nicholls has won this 4 times and his yard isin fine form with 12 winners from  31 runners in the last 14 days

MARTIN Pipe won it twice in 2002 and 2004

Dan Skelton is 15/49 with his runners over the past fortnight

Nicky Henderson is 42-151 at Sandown and Daryl Jacob is 25/85 riding for him.

Mark Bradstock is 2/4 at the course and 2/3 with his  chasers here

DAVID Pipe is 5/16 here with his chasers

Johnjo O'Neill Jnr is 3/7 for carlie tizzard

CONCLUSION

The trends narrow it down to two.

Shortlist:

CAPTAIN CHAOS ran a fine race in the  valuable Kim Muir chase at the Cheltenham festival over 3m2f

Caught for fifth close home that day but  has won over both 3m and 3m1F, so fits the trends.

The yard is in flying form. 

LE REVE loves it here at Sandown (4-13 and 3 places). Finished 4L third as an 8yo in this back in 2015 but then pulled up in 2016 and 17.

Comes into this as an 11yo (close third  best strike rate) in a lot better form then the last two efforts.

Never won in this grade , but that is why he get in on just 10 stone (a weight 7 of the last 22 winners carried)

Selections

I am splitting my stake on both.

CAPTAIN CHAOS is  an improving 8yo with a perfect trends record. He is untried at this trip and we shall find out Saturday if he gets it.

20/1 with Bet365

LE REVE is another with a perfect trends profile who is a course winner, a distance winner but not both (though went close in this  in 2015)

20/1 widely

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