LAST 22 RUNNINGS
6 favs won and 5 second favs
19 came from the first 6 in the betting
Winners at 40/1, 33/1 & 25/1, but the remaining 19 were 14/1 or less
ALL carry 9-00
Official Rating (OR)
12 had an OR
All were rated 109+
6 of the last 8 winners had OR’s of 116+ (only 1 such horse here, showing that this is a sub standard renewal compared to recent years)
21 ran 5 times or less in the past year
17 winners from 185 runners (9%) were making their seasonal debuts
5-172 (3%) had 1 run that season
ALL posted a first 3 finish last time
20 had won over 6F-1M
17 had won over 7F-1M
ALL bar one had run over 7F-1M
Those 17 who won on seasonal debut are 17-180 (10%)
Those with a run all last ran 8-30 days ago and are 5-180 (3%)
DRAW – stall 1, 3 & 16 have a disproportionately higher chance with each scoring 4-22.
This could, of course, be pure chance. But a rail is handy for inexperienced 3yo’s and so it would make sense that low drawn and high drawn would do best.
3 winners have come from the G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 7F at Newmarket
ADVERTISE was 2.75L second to Winter fav for this, Too Darned Hot
2 past winners came from the G1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster
MAGNA GRECIA got up by a head, KICK ON was 3L sixth
2 past winners came from the Craven Stakes at Newmarket in April
SKARDU beat MOMKIN a neck with SET PIECE a further 1.75L back in third and ROYAL MARINE a further ¾ L back in 4th
2 winners came from the Greenham Stakes in April
GREAT SCOT was ¾ L second with URBAN ICON a further 2.25L third.
AP O’Brien has won this an amazing 9 times – including 3 of the last 4
His yard is bang in form with 9 winners from 26 runners in the last two weeks
His two runners have Ryan Moore (110-372 riding for him) and Donnacha O'Brien (125/420) on board
Charlie Appleby has a 49/178 winners at the course and is 24/82 with his 3yo's
Franke Dettori is 3/8 riding for Martyn Meade
William Buick is 102/337 for Michael Appleby
David Egan 2/3 for Kevin Ryan
Oisin Murphy 14/30 for John Gosden
PJ McDonald is 12/34 for James Tate
Sylvestre de Sousa 10/27 for Andrew Balding
James Doyle 64/225 for Willie Haggas
If we take the first 6 in the betting or at odds of 12/1 or less, 5 runs or less, seasoanl debut and won last time over 6-8F, we are left with the two O'Brien horses.
MAGNA GRECIA won one of the best trials, the 1 mile G1 Racing Post Trophy last Autumn. Only got up late on and looks as though a stiffer staminatest may suit. This is always run full pelt so that should suit fine.
Also got a wide (17) draw, so, as they will probably split into at least two groups, he will have the rail.
TEN SOVEREIGNS is top rated on everything, but that form was over 6F. Not absolutely certain to be as good over this trip.
I am going for MAGNA GRECIA on proven stamina, in-form yard who won 4 of the last 5 renewals , high scoring jockey with a 30% strike rate for his Dad ,and a good draw.