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2000 Guineas 2019

SATURDAY 4/5/19

NEWMARKET 3.35

2000 GUINEAS

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

6 favs won and 5 second favs

19 came from the first 6 in the betting

Winners at 40/1, 33/1 & 25/1, but the remaining 19 were 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carry 9-00

Official Rating (OR)

12 had an OR

All were rated 109+

6 of the last 8 winners had OR’s of 116+ (only 1 such horse here, showing that this is a sub standard renewal compared to recent years)

Age

3yo’s only

Profile

21 ran 5 times or less in the past year

17 winners from 185 runners (9%) were making their seasonal debuts

5-172 (3%) had 1 run that season

ALL posted a first 3 finish last time

16 won

20 had won over 6F-1M

17 had won over 7F-1M

ALL bar one had run over 7F-1M

Those 17 who won on seasonal debut are 17-180 (10%)

Those with a run all last ran 8-30 days ago  and are 5-180 (3%)

DRAW – stall 1, 3 & 16 have a disproportionately higher chance with each scoring 4-22.

This could, of course, be pure chance. But a rail is handy for inexperienced 3yo’s and so it would make sense that low drawn and high drawn would do best.

Best Trial

3 winners have come from the G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 7F at Newmarket

ADVERTISE was 2.75L second to Winter fav for this, Too Darned Hot

2 past winners came from the G1 Racing Post Trophy at  Doncaster

MAGNA GRECIA got up by a head, KICK ON was 3L sixth

2 past winners came from the Craven Stakes at Newmarket in April

SKARDU beat MOMKIN a neck with SET PIECE a further 1.75L back in third and ROYAL MARINE a further ¾ L back in 4th

2 winners came from the Greenham Stakes in April

GREAT SCOT was ¾ L second with URBAN ICON  a further 2.25L third.

Trainers/Jockeys

AP O’Brien has won this an amazing 9 times – including 3 of the last 4

His yard is bang in form with 9 winners from 26 runners in the last two weeks

His two runners have Ryan Moore (110-372 riding for him) and Donnacha O'Brien (125/420) on board

Charlie Appleby has a 49/178 winners at the course and is 24/82 with his 3yo's

Franke Dettori is 3/8 riding for Martyn Meade

William Buick is 102/337 for Michael Appleby

David Egan 2/3 for Kevin Ryan

Oisin Murphy 14/30 for John Gosden

PJ McDonald is 12/34 for James Tate

Sylvestre de Sousa 10/27 for Andrew Balding

James Doyle 64/225 for Willie Haggas

CONCLUSION

If we take the first 6 in the betting or at odds of 12/1 or less, 5 runs or less, seasoanl debut and won last time over 6-8F, we are left with the two O'Brien horses.

Shortlist:

MAGNA GRECIA won one of the best trials, the 1 mile G1 Racing Post Trophy last Autumn. Only got up late on and looks as though a stiffer staminatest may suit. This is always run full pelt so that should suit fine.

Also got a wide (17) draw, so, as they will probably split into at least two groups, he will have the rail.

TEN SOVEREIGNS is top rated on everything, but that form was over 6F. Not absolutely certain to be as good over this trip.

Selection:

I am going for MAGNA GRECIA on proven stamina, in-form yard who won 4 of the last 5 renewals , high scoring jockey with a 30% strike rate for his Dad ,and a good draw.

5/1 generally