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Swinton Handicap Hurdle 2019

SATURDAY 11/4/19

HAYDOCK 3.10

SWINTON HANDICAP HURDLE

GRADE 3

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 6 and second fav 3 times

21 came from the first 9 in the betting

16 came from the first 5

Winner at 25/1 and four at 16/1, but the remaining 17 were 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 10-00 to 11-11

20 carried 11-5 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 125-148

20 were rated 141 or less

Age

21 were aged 4-7

17 were aged 4-6

4yo’s have the best strike rate with 3-23 (13%)

6yo’s are next with 7-101 (7%)

5yo’s a close third on 7-112 (6%)

7yo’s are 4-102 (4%)

Profile

ALL ran 2-17 times in the past year

ALL were making their seasonal debut

16 finished in the first 7 last time

ALL RAN over two miles half a furlongs plus

18 were distance winners

ALL last ran 8-90 days ago

Only one horse has won this more than once. Not great for JOHN CONSTABLE fans.

Best trial

4 past winners came from the Conditional Jockey Handicap Hurdle at Aintree

NIETZCHE was 2.75L third

3 came from the Scottish Champion Hurdle

DINO VELVET was 7L second.

Trainers

Evan Williams has won this 4 times out of the last 6 runnings! He runs 8yo former winner JOHN CONSTABLE

Nicky Henderson has won this twice.

Olly Murphy has had 3 winners rom 10 runners over the last fortnight, is 1/3 at the course and 1/3 with his hurdlers here.

Seamus Mullins is 3/10 with his runners over the past 14 days

Richard Spencer is 1/1 in that  period.

Tom George is 5/15 with his hurdlers here

Mr C Williams is 1/2 riding for Nick Williams

CONCLUSION

This is an ultra competitive handicap and a case for at least 7 could qualify purely on trends.

I have whittled it down to a shortlist of 3 who have that little extra on top of a perfect trends profile:

Shortlist:

Paul Nicholls trains the only 4yo (best record in this), CHRISTOPHER WOOD.

This horse bring serious juvenile Grade 1 form to a handicap. Only beaten 7L in the G1 juvenile race at Aintree by impressive Triumph Hurldle winner, Pentlands Hills (form franked by the second – Fakir D'Oudaires – at the Punchestown festival next time)

NEITZCHE was a close third in the best trial, the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at Aintree.

Will like the going if there is any rain (1-8 on Good but 5-12 on Good to Soft)

Doesn't look to have the class of the above though.

DINO VELVET posted a career best when beaten 7L by Verdana Blue in the second best trial, Scottish Champion Hurdle, last time. Easily put in his place by that Champion Hurdle place class horse, he still had 13 more graded hurdlers behind him. He was getting 13lbs from the winner mind.

Is 3-8 on Good going and the above form has worked out well with 2 of the subsequent 5 winning – one in a G2

Selections:

CHRISTOPHER WOOD is G1 class and, given the strike rate of 4yo's in this, he the trends to back up his excellent form.

1 point each way CHRISTOPHER WOOD at 8/1 generally

 

 

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