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Victoria Cup 2019

SATURDAY 11/4/19

ASCOT 4.00

VICTORIA CUP

CLASS 2 HANDICAP

LAST 20 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 4 and second fav won 4 as well

17 came from the first 11 in the market

15 from the first 9

13 came from the first 6

Winners at 331, 25/1 three times and 20/1 twice – so surprises are no surprise.

The remaining 14 were 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-12 to 9-8

18 carried 8-5+

17 carried 9-1 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 77-104

19 were rated 83+

18 had OR’s of 99 or less

Age

ALL aged 4-7

4yo’s have by far the best record with 11 winners from 179 runners (6%)

The rest are all on 3%. 5yo’s are 5-147, 6yo’s 3-94 & 7yo’s 1-34 respectively.

Profile

17 had 4-10 runs in the past year

ALL had 3 runs or less that season (including 3 seasonal debutants)

12 had just the one run

16 posted a first 5 last time finish – 3 won

19 had won over 6F+

17 had won over 7F+

ALL had run over 7F+

17 last ran within the past 60 days

3 last ran 121-365 days ago

No horse has won this twice, (though RIPP ORF ran down the field in the best trial).

Draw

Stalls 1, 2 & 5 account for 5 winners

Stall 13 provided 4 winners

So four stalls accounted for nearly half the winners.

Best Trial

3 past winners came from the Newbury Spring Cup

Last Year’s winner, RIPP ORF, was 23L 16th

Trainers

David Elsworth has won this twice in the last 4 runnings (trains RIPP  ORF)

Roger Varian has had 11 winners rom 38 runners in the past fortnight

Ralph Beckett is 9/29 over the same period

CONCLUSION

RIPP ORF’s name crops up a lot!

5yo not ideal. No horse, so far, has won this more than once  and his duck egg last time is not good.

BUT

Only horse in the field to run in the Spring Cup (best trial) and trained by the race’s most successful recent trainer

I think he  has a good chance at a decent price, but there are better trends horses and this IS a tends blog.

Shortlist:

KYRNEN is the current 8/1 co fav,

A perfect trends profile except for age. 5yo's have only half the strike rate in this as 4yo's

BLUE MIST too has a perfect trends profile and is a 4yo

KIMIFIVE ditto

Selections

I am going to oppose the fav with the two 4yo's.

BLUE MIST looks just the type for this, and is 1-1 at Ascot.

Placed twice on Soft (though  the times suggest nearer Good than Soft going today – Friday).

Stepping up in class and needs to impove (no win but 5 places in 8 efforts above class 3), but looks the type to do so.

Never ran at this trip but is 2-6 over a mile and "forged clear" over that trip on his only visit here over a mile in October – winning 3.5L.

Ascot is a very stiff track and that stamina should hold him in good stead here.

KIMIFIVE is an interesting one from a small yard.

Only tried once over further than 6F once (decent fourth over 7F at Epsom last season, but seem to be outstayed).

However, sauntered clear on second attempt at this trip last time out in a £32K handicap at Goodwood.

Only beaten 1L here over 6F in an £18k  handicap here last season. Placed twice on Soft, 1 -2 and a place at the trip, and not too big a jump in class having won a class 2 last time.

Also 1-1 when attempting to win within a week of his last run.

Not got a good record in big fields, but seems to have strengthened up this season so that both this trip now suits better and is now better equipped to handle any rough housing in a big field.

If you are betting these from a bank I suggest you back half a point each way on them both.

BLUE MIST is 12/1 widely

KIMIFIVE is 18/1 with William Hill