SATURDAY 18/5/19

NEWBURY 3.40

LOCKINGE STAKES

GROUP 1

Last 22 runnings

Market

Fav won 12 and second fav won 5

20 came from the first 4 in the betting

A winner at 20/1 but the remaining 21 were 9/1 or less.

Weight

ALL carried 8-11 – 9-00

Fillies (carrying 8-11) are 4-14 (28%) – 3 times the strike rate of males

Official  Rating (OR)

16 had an OR

ALL were rated 113+

10 of the last 11 had OR’s of 117+

Age

ALL aged 4- 6

21 were 4 or 5

4yo’s have won 16 times out of 116 runs (14%)

5yo’s are 5-53 (10%)

6yo’s are 1-22 (5%)

Profile

21 had 2-7 runs in the past year

ALL ran 0-2 times that season

18-101 (18% – and by a mile the best strike rate) were making their seasonal debut.

ALL finished in the first 6 last time.

20 finished in the first 5

18 posted a first 4 finish

19 had already won over 1m-10F

ALL had run over 1m-12F

Only 3 had won over further than 1m (all at 10F)

18 were distance winners

4-81 (5%) last ran 16-30 days ago

18-84 (21%) last ran 121-365 days ago

Best Trial

7 former winners came from the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champion’s Day

I CAN FLY was beaten just a neck second

LORD GLITTERS was 5.5 lengths back in 6th with LAURENS another 8.5L 8th

 BEAT THE BANK was another 7.5L 11th

4 came from the G2 Sandown Mile  in April

BEAT THE BANK beat SHARJA BRIDGE half a length (level weights).

2 winners came from last season’s G1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood

LORD GLITTERS was 2L third with BEAT THE BANK  a further neck back in fifth.

Trainers/Jockeys

The Hannon’s have won this 4 times (twice each) with junior winning 2 of the last 5 runnings.

Michael Stoute has won 3 renewals

AP O’Brien has won this twice

Charlie Appleby is 5/13 with his runners in the past fortnight and 4-10 with his older horses here and James Doyle is 45/147  riding for him.

Sylvestre de Sousa is 13/37 riding  for Andrew Balding

Ryan Moore 108/375 for AP O'Brien

GeraldMosse 9/29 for David Elsworth

Frankie Dettori is 76/25 for John Gosden

CONCLUSION

There  are no prefect trends fit ,but the following are the nearest:

Shorlist:

BEAT THE BANK won our second best trial and one slight negative is age (5yo's have just under a third worse strike rate than 4yo's)

Also an OR of 115 would be the second lowest in the past 12 years (only 2 have an OR  of 117 in what looks like a sub standard renewal). 0-4 in G1's.

Add to the above the fact that winners of this having 2 runs this season is rare, and much inferior to the record of seasonal debutants, and you can see that, though these are smallish negatives they add up.

SHARJAH BRIDGE was second to the above in that trial but the exact same slight negatives apply as regards age, OR and not a seasonal debutant.

0-4 on Good to Firm (which today's race times indicate) but has clocked good ratings on it.

Never won above listed class,though great effort in G2  last time.

LAURENS is a filly and 4 of the 14 to try (28%) have won. This compares to strike rate of 9% for males.

Beaten on debut last season when running a scorcher to finish 1.5L second to 66/1 shock winner BILLESDEN BROOK in the 1000 Guineas.

But did nothing but improve (unlike the winner that day) taking in two French G1's (one over 10.5F which casts a slight doubt as NO past winner in our period had won beyond 10F), an Irish G1 and finally the G1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket.

Combination of softish ground and a long season were blamed for her disappointing run when finishing 8th in our best trial on Champions Day  at Ascot . Ran 24lbs below her best RPR (first timein mixed company).

Selection:

LAURENS looks like going off fav in a race won by 12 favs.

She is 4-6 in Group 1's, has all  the trends except a last time finish of 8th.

Close second in a Classic last season on debut ,she can go one better this season in what looks like a sub standard Lockinge (only she and Romanised have the minimum 117 OR of 10 of the last 11 winners).

She can continue the fine record of fillies in this.

9/2 withHills, Skybetand Boylesports