SATURDAY 22/6/18

ASCOT 3.40

THE HARDWICKE STAKES

GROUP 2

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

7 winning favs and 3 second favs

ALL came from the first 6 in the betting

ALL 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-9 to 9-1

Official Rating (OR)

Of the19 with an OR, ALL were rated 111+

17 were rated 113+

Age

ALL aged 4-6

4 & 6yo's have the best strike rate of 15%, with 15-103 and  4-26 respectively 

5yo's are a poor third with 3-41 (7%),less than half that of the above.

Profile

ALL had 1-7 runs over the preceding year

ALL had 4 runs or less that season

ALL finished in the first 6 last time

18 finished in the first 3 – 8 won

19 had won over 10F+

19 had ran over 12F+

Only 5 had won over further

21 last ran between 8-60 days ago

DRAW

Usually a small field for this and not many clues

Best trial

By a long way, the G1 Coronation Stakes at the Derby meeting is the best trial, with 8 winners coming from that race.

DEFOE was the surprise winner this year but it was no fluke with last year's St Leger winner, Kew Gardens well and truly put in his place, beaten half a length.

The ultra reliable SALOUEN was 5L back in third, which gives the form a reliable look.

Looking down the list of winners I don't see any Derby heroes. But I am not sure any have tried.

Doyen won this in 2004 having finished second in the 2003 Derby and Idaho won this in 2017 having been 8L fourth in the 2016 renewal.

So, MASAR has taken an unconventional route, and this mut be considered a drop in class, having won last year's Derby with such authority.

Trainers/Jockeys

Sir Michael Stoute has won this 8 times – including 4 of the last 5 and 6 of the last 9! Great news for  MIRAGE DANCER fans!

Aidan O'Brien  has won it 3 times and Ryan Moore is 109/385  riding for him

 Mark Johnston also boasts 3 wins

James Doyle is 53/170 for Charlie Appleby

Frankie Dettori is 81/270 for John Gosden

CONCLUSION

Shortlist:

MASAR drops in class and is making his seasonal debut – only 1 of the last 22 runners did so

This Godolphin owned 4yo Derby winner over C/D has won on seasonal debut 2/2 and ticks nearly all the trends boxes.

The trends negative is his 382 day layoff. Only 4 have tried after more than a year off, but none even placed.

Was entered in the G1 Prince of Wales Stakes and this improver looks to have an easier task in this.

Why the long lay off though? It is a big trends negative –  but not many (if any) Derby winners have run in this.

DEFOE was impressive when winning our best trial, the G1 Coronation Stakes over  C/D. The time for that win was 0.99 seconds faster than MASAR'S Derby win.

Selection:

I think the former will be a possible star later in the season but, on this occasion,Iam going to go for fellow improver, DEFOE.

I am loathe to oppose the Derby winner as the form for that race has been franked all week.

But will a peak MASAR turn up? Appleby pulled him out of the G1 Prince of Wales Stakes on Wednesday because of the going (has dried out a fair bit since). More interesting was Appleby's remarks to the effect that he had to get a run into him for the Coral Eclipse.  Which rather suggests that – and not this – is the main early season target.

He has the class to win even if needing it a little, but the lay off is a big concern and, indeed,a trendsnegative.

DEFOE has won the same trial race as 8 former  winners, has a perfect trends profile, is hard fit – this will be his fourth run this season – and is also improving himself.

Scored his highest ever RPR by 7lbs in the Coronation Stakes last time and in a time 1 second quicker than last year's  Derby over the same C/D.

1 POINT WIN DEFOE @  4/1 365 & BOYLESPORT

TAKE BOG

 

SATURDAY 22/6/18

ASCOT 4.20

THE DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

4 favs and 5 second favs won. A poor race for short prices though with 0-5 for 9/4 shots or less

First 3 in the betting have won 10. The other half have been won by horse priced 33/1, 25/1 twice, 20/1 twice 16/1 twice, 14/1 & 11/1

A race where the only real market trends are that 20 were 25/1 or less and, of the limited (5) short priced favs (9/4 or less) none won.

Weight

ALL 8-11 to 9-4

20 carried 9-00+

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 17 with an OR were rated 108+

ALL the last 12 winners had OR's of 111+

Age 

21 aged 4-6

4 and 6yo's have the same strike rate with 10-111 (9%) and 5-56 9%)

5yo's are 4-86 (5%)

An outlier was one 7yo winner from 29 to try (3%)

Profile

ALL had 1-13 runs in the preceding year

ALL had 5 runs or less that season (11 had just one run)

17 finished in the first  7 last time

15 finished in the first 5

18 had won over 6F+

19 had runover 6F+

20 last ran 90 days ago or less

DRAW

Not many clues but stall 1, with just one placed fromm 21 runs, looks like the stall of death!

For reasons unknown, stalls 3,4 & 6 have won 4.4 & 3 respectively. So 3 stalls won half the runnings.

Best trial

7 winners came from the Duke of York Stakes

INVINCIBLE ARMY won by 2.25 with YAFTA a 3L third 

PROJECTION was 9L last of 9

4 came from the Kings Stand Stakes

BLUE POINT beat Bataash by 1.75L with KACHY 8.5L ninth

2 past winners came from the Listed Hamilton Stakes at Windsor

THE TIN MAN (our slightly unlucky trends pick in this last year when fourth) was a running on 2L third over this trip at a  sharp track that wouldn't play to his strengths.

Trainers/Jockeys

James Fanshawe has won this twice

James Doyle is 53/170 for Charlie Appleby

Sylvestre de Sousa is 19/64 for Andrew Balding

Danny Tudhope is 6/14 for SirMichael Stoute

Frankie Dettori 81/270 for John Gosden

PJMcDonald is 1957 for James Tate

RyanMoore 109/385

CONCLUSION

Shortlist:

INVINCIBLE ARMY has a perfect trends profile and won what is by far the best trial.

Former third in this (our 2017 trends pick) BLUE POINT also fits the trends bill and beat a top class horse in Battaash  to take the clear second best trial, the King's Stand, last season.

Beat the same horse in the same race just 4 days ago and horses reappearing within a week have a joint best strike rate of 4 wins from 45 to try (9%).

Is 4/5 here, 2-2 over 5F and 2-3 (close, fast finishing 3rd in the Commonwealth Cup of 2017 behid Carravagio and Harry's Angel – beaten 1.25L) but won two G3  over C/D.

Only tried a quick reappearance once, third run as  2yo, and was beaten a neck at by a very good horse- so quick reappearance is an unknown factor.

However, to win this after a 4 day lay off must mean he won the King's Stand with a lot in hand!

Our trends pick last year, THE TIN MAN won this in 2017 in a fast time, is 3-9 at Ascot (beaten only once here – this race last year when a close fourth having not much luck in running – on Good or faster going). 8/12 on going that is Good or faster.

2 of his 3 wins here were in Group 1's

The going seems to be going his way. Big each way chance.

Two trends negatives. No horse has won this more than once over the period and only one 7yo  won from 29 to try.

Selection

I very reluctantly oppose the  best horse in the race (BLUE POINT) with the horse with the best trends profile – INVINCIBLE ARMY

1 POINT EACH WAY widely @ 5/1

Take BOG Friday night with Bet365 or Boylesport or widely, ater 8am Saturday

 

ASCOT 5.00

THE WOKINGHAM

CLASS 2 HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 22 RUNNINGS (23 WINNERS)

Market

4 winning favs and 2 second favs

17 came from the first 8 in the betting

15 came from the first 6

Winners at 33/1 twice, 25/1 x 2 @ 22/1. The remaining 17 were 20/1 or less

Weight

ALL 8-6 to 9-10

20 carried 8-9 +

20 carried 9-6 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 87-106

20 were rated 91+

21 were rated 105 or less

Age

21 aged 4-6

5yo's are by far the best with 10 wins from 147 runners (7%)

4yo's are next best with 8-196 (4%)

6yo's are 3-120 (3%)

Not many 3yo's have tried, but of the 14 who did, none won

One 7yo, from 73, won.

Profile

ALL had 1-11 runs in the preceding year

ALL ran 0-4 times that season

22 posted a first 6 finish last time

19 finished in the first 4

ALL had won over 6F+

12 had won over 7F and one over a mile

19 were distance winners

20 last ran 60 days ago or less

Selhurstparkflyer won this twice, back to back in 1997/8

DRAW

Stall 1 has the best strike rate of 16% with 3 wins from 19 runs

Stalls 27 & 28 are next best on 2-20 (10%) and 2-17 (12%)

6 winners came from the 3 drawn nearest the inside

3 came from the 3 widest stalls

So, 9 of the 23 winners came from just 6 stalls

Best Trials

3 came from the 6F handicap at Epsom  on Derby day. Won by the 9yo, WATCHABLE

2 came from the York 6F handicap, mid May won by SOLDIER'S MINUTE

2 came from the 7F heritage handicap, the Victoria Cup, ar Ascot, won by current fav, CAPE BYRON

Trainers/Jockeys

Liam Keniry is 1/2 riding for John Ryan

Sylvestre de Sousa is 19/64 for Andrew Balding

Ryan Moore is 10/26 for Jeremy Noseda

CONCLUSION

I did like the look of  CAPE BYRON but he would be the highest rated winner in 23 years and only the third to carry more than 9-6

Shortlist:

With 5yo's having near twice the strike rate of 4  or 6yo's,andno other age winning, I narrowed it down to two;

TIS MARVELOUS is trained by sprint specialist Clive Cox and is a course as well as a distance winner.

Has a perfect trends profile (a run or, better still, win over 7F would have been a bonus)

The other with a perfect trends profile is SUMMERGHAND

Selections:

I can't split them so will back them both each way.

Half a point each way TIS MARVELLOUS @ 22/1 with Bet365

Half a point each way SUMMERGHAND @ 20/1 with Bet365 & Boylesport