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Royal Ascot Trends 2019 Balance Sheet

TUESDAY

TUESDAY 18/6/18

ASCOT 2.30

QUEEN ANNE STAKES

GROUP 1 (became so in 2003. Previously G2)

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 6 and second fav 7

First 4 in the betting won 20

Winners at 33/1, 12/1 & 10/1 but the remaining 19 were 17/2 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-11 to 9-7

8-11 to 9-00 since this became a G1

19 carried 9-00+

The two carrying 8-11 were top class fillies, GOLDIKOVA  & TEPIN (both French trained)

While only 2 fillies have won, only 18 have tried – an 11% strike rate that holds up well against the boys 9%

Both the fillies wins have been in the last 9 years

Official Rating

ALL 16 with an OR  were rated 109+

Of the 13 with an OR since this became a  G1, 11 had an OR of 115+

Age

Only 4 and 5yo's have won this.

4yo's best with 16-118 (14%)

 5yo's are not too far behind on 6-70 (9%)

Profile

ALL had 7 runs or less in the preceding year

ALL had 0-2 runs that season with those once raced having by far the best record – 13 wins

19 had one run or less that season

21 finished in the first 6 last time – 7 won

All bar one had won over a mile plus,  but only two had won over further, up to 10.5F.

ALL last ran in the previous 365 days except those whose last run was 16-30 days ago (0-31)

The French have won this 4 times

No horse has won this more than once over the last 22 years (MUSTASHRY fans beware!)

DRAW

8 runners or less has been the norm, so an unusually big  field of 16 tomorrow. 

Those drawn one or two from the inside rail (1&2) won 7

Those drawn 3 or less from the outside (15,16 & 17) won 9

So 16 winners came from just 5 stalls

Best trial

The Lockinge Stakes – 11 winners of this came from that race!

MUSTASHRY won impressively by 2.5L with LAURENS second and ACCIDENTAL AGENT a further 2.5L further back in third.

ROMANISED was a further 3/4 L fourth 

Trainers/jockeys (with runners)

Saeed bin Suroor has won this 6 times (3 times since it became a G1)

Aidan O'Brien has won it 3 times – all since G1 and Ryan  Moore is 107/377 riding for him

Sir Michael Stoute has won this 3 times – none since became a G1

Top French trainer J-C Rouget is 4-7 at the course and 1-3 with his 4yo+ runners

Irish trainer Kenny Condon is 1/2 here with his older horses

Charlie Appleby has had 4 winners from 8 runners in the past fortnight.

Kerrin McEvoy is 1/1 riding for him, while James Doyle is 52/163

Sylvestre de Sousa is 19/57 riding for Andrew Balding

Willie Haggas is 10/36 over the same period

CONCLUSION

20 past winners came from the first 4 in the betting and 20 were 10/1 – with 19 @ 15/2 or less

MUSTASHRY has won our best trial but would be the first to win this twice. Also a 6yo (0-28)

BARNEY ROY offends against the days since run trend  where those who last raced 16-30 days ago are 0-31

HAZAPOUR is currently 10/1 and has a good profile. But his OR of 110 is not ideal. Since becoming a G1, 11 of the 13 with an OR were rated 115+

LE BREVIDO has not won beyond 7F – something 21 of the last 22 had done.

This leaves a shortist of one:

Lockinge second, LAURENS who has a perfect trends profile.

Beaten fair and square by Mustashry that day but, unlike the winner, was making her seasonal debut. Trainer said she would come on "a length or two" for the run.

Three reservations and they all relate to her run at Ascot on Champions Day last October:

That was the first time she raced outside filies only company,on officially Soft (though more like Good to Soft  on the clock) going and her first and only run at Ascot. But it was also her worst run.

The course should  have been no  problem as she is 4-7 on a straight course and 4-8 on slight undulations.

The going/stamina would be no problem as she won the French Oaks over 10.5F and, the race before that, won a 10F G1 at Longchamp on  Good  to Soft.

The speculation that day was that it was one race too many in a busy season.

I am happy  to accept that, especially given how well she  ran against the males last time.  But we don't know what the going is yet (officially Good, but I don't trust official goings!),  until we see some race times, and she is an unknown quantity on genuinely  Soft going (though stamina is in no doubt).

For that reason the bet is LAURENS, only half a point each way @ 13/2 with bet365

TAKE BOG

RESULT

The first two, LORD GLITTERS 14/1 and BEAT THE BANK 20/1, finished 20.75L and 13.5L thirteenth and eleventh respectively behind MUSTASHRY and LAURENS in the Lockinge.

Winner and second seems to love it here having finished first and second  – MUSTASHRY prevailing by half a length – in this race last year.

21 past winners had finished in the first 6 lasttime and both winner and runner-up offended against that trend.So not one for the trends.

LAURENS, on the contrary, doesn't seem to like it here. This stiff track doesn't seem to suit her front running tactics. It is the second time she has run here and the second time she has flopped. That and the fact she pulled hard early. Here's what Racing Post analysis said:

"Laurens was rock-solid in the market and narrowly reversed her comeback form with Mustashry, faring best of those that raced handily. It's just so hard to pull off such tactics away from quick ground on this straight track, and she too could head back up in trip later on."

I wouldn't argue with that, but the race time was 1.2 seconds faster than Racing Post standard time – so not softish ground!

Running Profit/Loss (P/L) =  -1 point

 

WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY 19/6/18

ASCOT 3.40

PRINCE OF WALES STAKES

GROUP 1 

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

 7 winning favs and 8 second favs

19 came from the first 3 in the betting

Winners at 20/1 and 16/1 but the remaining 20 were 17/2 or less

Weight

ALL the last 19 winners carrried 8-11 to 9-00

Only 2, over the whole 22 year period, carried 8-11, but only 12 tried (17%)

By contrast, those carrying 9-00 won 17-156 (11%)

Official Rating (OR)

14 had an OR (including all the last 10)

ALL 14 were rated 109+

ALL the remaining 13 had OR's of 117+ (including the last 10 winners)

9 of the last 10 were rated 119+

Age

ALL aged 4-6

5yo's have the best strike rate of 9-60 (15%)

4yo's are 12-107 (11%)

6yo's are wll behind with 1-17 (6%)

Profile

20 ran 4 times or less in the past year

20 had 1 run or less that season

16 won last time

20 had won over 1m1F

18 had won over 1m2F

ALL had run over 1m2F

ALL last ran in the past 365 days

Best Trials

5 former winners came from the Tattersall's Gold  Cup (G1 @ the Curragh)

MAGICAL won this easily by 7L and none re-oppose!

2 came from the G1 Champion Stakes, here on Champion's Day last October.

CRYSTAL OCEAN was beaten 6L second by Cracksman.

Trainers/jockeys

AP O'Brien has won this 3 times and has current fav, MAGICAL along with two other entries.

Donnacha O'Brien is 131/443 riding for him and Ryan Moore is 107/377

Andre Fabre has trained two winners of this and he has WALDGEIST entered.

Pierre-Charles Boudot is 2/6 riding for him

Willie Haggas is 10/31 with his last 14 day runners

Frankie Dettori is 4/12 riding for Sir Michael Stoute

CONCLUSION

The trends are clear for the first 3 in the betting,who should come from  the following (in card order):

CRYSTAL OCEAN was a well beaten second in one of the best trials over 10F. 

Narrow second in the 2017 St Leger. 12F looks his optimal trip.

Trends negative is 2 runs this season (20 past winners had 1 run or less)

WALDGEIST, trained by Andre Fabre, but this 2017 French Derby runner up is a bit over-raced for this with 6 runs in the past year. 20 former winners had 4 runs or less. Other than that, good trends credentials.

MAGICAL won by far the best trial for this by 4L. Another who looks over-raced for  this having won all 3 runs this season.

SEA OF CLASS is very lightly raced (6 runs) only lacks a last time win. That defeat was a short neck defeat by the great Enabled in last season's Arc.

Ticks all the other trends boxes.

Shortlist:

There are none with a perfect trends profiles but these two have the least against them:

SEA OF CLASS didn't win last time (short neck second in the Arc).

Unknown quantity on ground worse than Good.

WALDGEIST is a 5yo (best age) who fits all the trends except he has had 6 runs over the past year (20 had 4 runs or less).

Held by above on Arc form (just over a length behind in fourth) and just failed here over 12F  in  a G3 last October on Champions day, on very similar ground to today's likely going.

However, race fit and in fine form. Beaten fav  twice  on Heavy and Very Soft going in France. All best form on Good or faster though has very good form on Good to Soft.

Selection:

The forecast thunder storms missed Ascot and just 0.5mm of rain fell  overnight.

With more thundery showers forecast, the official going on the round course is Soft, Good toSoft in places, but the ground was quicker than officially acknowledged yesterday, so I would predict Good to Soft at worst.

In that case, and given the interrrupted preparation of SEA OF CLASS (doubts about her running on this ground),  WALDGEIST is the trends selection.

Perfect trends prep (especially the one run – one win in the Prix Ganay this season) and only fals down on  the number of  runs in the last year.

This has been a head scratcher. There are no perfect trends runners, but this one is closest, and looks most likely of the two shortlisted to be fit, in form and handle today's conditions.

His trainer's two wins in this race also inspire some confidence.

Half point win @ 9/2 widely

RESULT

The time for the race was 6.25 secs slwoer than Racing Post standard, thus, in this classs, somewhere between Good and Good to Soft. So, I don't think there were any  excuses for any horse on the basis of the officially Soft going.

An inspired ride from Frankie (his second winner of the day) who kicked on early on Champions Stakes second, CRYSTAL OCEAN, to make use of his horse's assured stamina (second in a St Leger) to hold off our other best trials contender, MAGICAL by a length and a quarter,to record his first Group 1 win.

At 3/1 second fav, no great shock.

Both on the shortlist but the winner had run twice that season whereas 20 of the past 22 winners had run once or less.

Our trends selection, WALDGEIST, was dropped out the back and I think his jockey was caught out when Frankie kicked on early. Made steady headway under hands hand heels to finish 4.5L third.

I wouldn'tput defeat down to the ground. The race wasn't run to suit and maybe he ust wasn't good enough against two top Group 1 horses.Here's what the Racing Post analysis said:

"Waldgeist landed the Prix Ganay on his comeback last month, often a key pointer for this, and his master trainer had taken the race with Byword (2010) his only previous entrant in the past decade. A bit full of himself to post, he didn't find the race run to suit and, all considered, it was a decent effort on ground plenty soft enough. He too could now come back for the King George, when quicker going might level the playing field."

Unfortunately, having expected SEA OF CLASS to be withdrawn  because of the rain, thus turning it into a 7 horse race, we advised the trends selection to win only, so missed  out on the place.

NB, all the first 3 were onthe 3-strong shortlist.

Running P/L =  -2 points

 

THURSDAY

THURSDAY 20/6/18

ASCOT 4.20

THE GOLD CUP

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

 10 winning favs and 4 second favs

19 came from the first 6 in the betting

Two 20/1 winners and a 16/1, but the other 19 were 12/1 or less

Weight

ALL carrried 8-11 to 9-2

Official Rating

ALL 14 with an OR had one of 107+

Age

The stats are skewed by the 4 times consecutive winner of this, the great YEATS.

He was the only winning 7 yo and the only winning 8yo

Leave him out and the remaining 20 winners were aged 4-6

6yo's shade it with 6 wins from 52 runs (12%)

4yo's a close second with 10-95 (10%)

5 yo's have done about half as well on 5% with 4-75

Profile

20 had 1-7 runs in the preceding year

20 had 0-2 runs that season

18 finished in the first 3 last time

19 had won over 1m6f+

19 had run over 2 miles plus

19 last ran 8-60 days ago

This is a good race for repeat winners with 9 renewals won by 4 horses.

Best trial

The Henry II Stakes has been the best trial, providing 8 winners

DEE CEE BEE won

Saval Beg Stakes (Ireland)has provided 3 winners

CAPRI was 4.5L third with MASTER OF REALITY was 3/4 L back in 4th 

The Vintage Crop Stakes (Ireland) also produced two past winners.

MASTER OF REALITY won a length.

CAPRI was a further 5.25L back in fifth.

Trainers/jockeys

Aidan O'Brien has won this race 7 times and Donnacha O'Brien is 131/445 riding for him.

Ryan Moore is 109/382 for O'Brien

Godolphin have had 4 winners which augurs well for Charlie Appleby whose horses are also in fine form – 5/14 over the last 14 days at time of writing (Wednesday afternoon).

James Doyle is 53/167 riding for him.

Mark Johnston won it twice

Frankie Dettori is 79/266 riding for John Gosden

CONCLUSION

In a race so good for favs and repeat winners STRADIVARIUS must surely be the first port of call.

5yo is not the ideal age, but only a small trends negative.

The winner of our best trial, the 4yo DEE CEE BEE has a perfect trends profile. Also trained by double winner Mark Johnston.

CROSS COUNTER is owned by 4 times winning connections – Godolphin and has the trends too, except for his 82 day layoff (19 last ran 8-60 days ago).

CAPRI won one of the best St Legers of recent times but has never got near that form in 9 runs since, barring an excellent close up, running on, fifth in last year's Arc.

Also, never ran over 2m+ (19 past winners had)

Shortlist:

Only two tick all the trends boxes.

STRADIVARIUS has  been there and got the tee shirt. Third in the St Leger mentioned above where Crystal Ocean (big race winner yesterday) was second – only half a length  down.

Won this last year (but on fast ground) and won a 2 mile G2 here on the Good to Soft/Soft going  he will  encounter tomorrow. Not proven over the combination of trip AND going but I am maybe splitting hairs.

This one has all the trends and – unless he fails quite to get home on the softer going at this trip – he looks banker material.

DEE CEE BEE was a good Derby second in what wasn't a vintage year. He has improved for the step up to two miles and won by far our best trial. The form of that race hasn't worked out well, neither has that of his other 2m win.

There are those who think he could be even better over a longer trip. We will find out tomorrow.

He is trained by a trainer who has  won this twice and has had some great stayers in the past.

Selection:

I am sticking with STRADIVARIUS as the proven quantity.

2 pts win @ EVENS with bet365

RESULT

The shortlist gave the 1-2 with "banker" STRADIVARIUS just doing enough to beat our best trial runner, DEE CEE BEE looking to fad on the run-in. but staying on again for second late on. Certainly stayed, on ground the clock said was Good.

I think class, rather than stamina, won out, and it wouldn't surprise me if he delivers the million pound bonus again this season!

Another great rid from Frankie at the meeeting – his fourth of the day!

Here's what the Racing Post said:

"Stradivarius emerged as the premier stayer last season, going unbeaten in five starts and winning this race on his favoured fast ground. There was a definite going concern this time around, but it will have been drying all day and with confidence flowing through Dettori's veins, the 5yo travelled oh so well in a perfect position. Although trapped away early in the straight, those on his outside couldn't keep him in and it was over in strides once asked for everything. He has such a likeable way about him, only doing what's required, and now will go down as one of the greats having logged back-to-back wins in the worlds premier staying race. Of course he's once again on course to land the big Million Pound bonus, with Goodwood the next stop."

Running total = Break Even (B/E)

 

FRIDAY

FRIDAY 21/6/19

ASCOT 4.20

CORONATION STAKES

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

GROUP 1

Market

10 favs won and 4 second favs

19 came from the first 4 in the betting

Winners at 25/1, 16/1 & 12/1 but the remaining 19 were 8/1 or less

Weight

ALL 9-00

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 17 with an OR were rated 100+

Of those, all the last 16 had OR's of 108+

Age

3yo only race

Profile

The profiles are skewed by the 4 French winners. I will say where this applies.

19 had 5 runs or less in the preceding year

20 had 0-2 runs that season

At least 18 had won over 7F+ (2 of the 4 French winners are included but the other 2 are not known)

At least 19 ran over a mile (again, we can't account for 2 of the 4 French runners)

19 finished in the first 7 last time (we don't know where 2 of the French winners finished)

14 finished in the first 5

7 won last time

19 last ran 60 days or less ago (no info for the same 2 French horses again)

DRAW

11 won from the widest 3 stalls (8, 9, & 10 this year)

Best trials

8 ran in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas which HERMOSA won with JUST WONDERFUL was  back in 6th.

Other than the winner is was a bunched finish for the places with around 1.5L separating the next 7 home.

6 ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas which was also won by HERMOSA – this time by 4L from PRETTY POLYANNA

Trainers/Jockeys

Aidan O'Brien has won this 3 times

John Gosden won it twice

As has Sir Michael Stoute

Ryan Moore is 103-334 when riding for  AP O'Brien

James Doyle is 24-82 for Gosden

CONCLUSION

It is very difficult to look beyond dual Guineas winner, HERMOSA. 14 past winners had won one or both Newmarket and/or Irish  1000 Guineas.

Has all the trends and even the draw in her favour.

2 points win @ 10/11 generally.

TAKE BOG

RESULT

Another shock winner (though, in retrospect his French Guineas effort gave hima good chance) at 20/1, WATCH ME was a revelation and simply brushed aside our 2 point win trends selection HERMOSA who finished a good one and a half lengths second. Here is what the Racing Post said:

"Hermosa had made all in both English and Irish Guineas, but being drawn in the outside stall meant she wasn't ideally berthed to get to the front this time. Ryan Moore had to accept sitting just off Pretty Pollyanna, and in the straight she was done for a turn of foot by the winner. She's more of a galloper than a quickener and setting her own pace and gradually winding things up probably suits her ideally."

I thought WATCH ME was impressive and I wouldn't expect anythingin the field to turn the form round.

Running Total =  -2  points

 

SATURDAY

 

SATURDAY 22/6/18

ASCOT 3.40

THE HARDWICKE STAKES

GROUP 2

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

7 winning favs and 3 second favs

ALL came from the first 6 in the betting

ALL 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-9 to 9-1

Official Rating (OR)

Of the19 with an OR, ALL were rated 111+

17 were rated 113+

Age

ALL aged 4-6

4 & 6yo's have the best strike rate of 15%, with 15-103 and  4-26 respectively 

5yo's are a poor third with 3-41 (7%),less than half that of the above.

Profile

ALL had 1-7 runs over the preceding year

ALL had 4 runs or less that season

ALL finished in the first 6 last time

18 finished in the first 3 – 8 won

19 had won over 10F+

19 had ran over 12F+

Only 5 had won over further

21 last ran between 8-60 days ago

DRAW

Usually a small field for this and not many clues

Best trial

By a long way, the G1 Coronation Stakes at the Derby meeting is the best trial, with 8 winners coming from that race.

DEFOE was the surprise winner this year but it was no fluke with year's St Leger winner, Kew Gardens well and truly put in his place, beaten half a length.

The ultra reliable SALOUEN was 5L back in third, which gives the form a reliable look.

Looking down the list of winners I don't see any Derby heroes. But I am not sure any have tried.

Doyen won this in 2004 having finished second in the 2003 Derby and Idaho won this in 2017 having been 8L fourth in the 2016 renewal.

So, MASAR has taken an unconventional route, and this mut be considered a drop in class, having won last year's Derby with such authority.

Trainers/Jockeys

Sir Michael Stoute has won this 8 times – including 4 of the last 5 and 6 of the last 9! Great news for  MIRAGE DANCER fans!

Aidan O'Brien  has won it 3 times and Ryan Moore is 109/385  riding for him

Ditto Mark Johnston

James Doyle is 53/170 for Charlie Appleby

Sylvestre de Sousa is 19/64

Frankie Dettori is 81/270 for John Gosden

CONCLUSION

Shortlist:

MASAR drops in class and is making his seasonal debut – only 1 of the last 22 runners did so

This Godolphin owned 4yo Derby winner over C/D has won on seasonal debut 2/2 and ticks nearly all the trends boxes.

The trends negative is his 382 day layoff. Only 4 have tried after more than a year off, but none even placed.

Was entered in the G1 Prince of Wales Stakes and this improver looks to have an easier task in this.

Why the long lay off though? It is a big trends negative –  but not many (if any) Derby winners have run in this.

DEFOE was impressive when winning our best trial, the G1 Coronation Stakes over  C/D. The time for that win was 0.99 seconds faster than MASAR'S Derby win.

Selection:

I think the former will be a possible star later in the season but, on this occasion,Iam going to go for fellow improver, DEFOE.

I am loathe to oppose the Derby winner as the form for that race has been franked all week.

But will a peak MASAR turn up? Appleby pulled him out of the G1 Prince of Wales Stakes on Wednesday because of the going (has dried out a fair bit since). More interesting was Appleby's remarks to the effect that he had to get a run into him for the Coral Eclipse.  Which rather suggests that – and not this – is the main early season target.

He has the class to win even if needing it a little, but the lay off is a big concern and, indeed,a trends negative.

DEFOE has won the same trial race as 8 former  winners, has a perfect trends profile, is hard fit – this will be his fourth run this season – and is also improving himself.

Scored his highest ever RPR by 7lbs in the Coronation Stakes last time and in a time 1 second quicker than last year's  Derby over the same C/D.

1 POINT WIN DEFOE @  4/1 365 & BOYLESPORT

TAKE BOG

RESULT

As suspected, MASAR needed the run and the inform, fit and improving DEFOE did the business for the trends.

Yet again the Coronation Stakes at Epsom provided the winner but he needed to work a bit harder as the Chzech horse – who  had been impeded by the subling MASAR coming out of the stalls – made him work hard for his victory. But, as at Epsom, he seemed to find just enough and a reamtch with the second and a race fit MASAR (amongst others) in the King George will be interesting.

The Racing Post said:

"Defoe took six attempts to win a Group 1, but did so in good style when running down Kew Gardens, with the pair clear, in the Coronation Cup and he followed up returned to Group 2 level. It was a race that didn't take much winning, with at least three of his key rivals below form and having excuses, and he was actually pretty fortunate to beat the complete outsider, but he's a likeable sort who ought to remain competitive in many of the top middle-distance contests. Whether he can win when the likes of Enable, Crystal Ocean and the pick of the 3yos square up against him is very doubtful, though. It'll be the King George next (Paddy Power go 8-1)."

Running Total =  +2 points

 

SATURDAY 22/6/18

ASCOT 4.20

THE DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

4 favs and 5 second favs won. A poor race for short prices though with 0-5 for 9/4 shots or less

First 3 in the betting have won 10. The other half have been won by horse priced 33/1, 25/1 twice, 20/1 twice 16/1 twice, 14/1 & 11/1

A race where the only real market trends are that 20 were 25/1 or less and, of the limited (5) short priced favs (9/4 or less) none won.

Weight

ALL 8-11 to 9-4

20 carried 9-00+

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 17 with an OR were rated 108+

ALL the last 12 winners had OR's of 111+

Age 

21 aged 4-6

4 and 6yo's have the same strike rate with 10-111 (9%) and 5-56 9%)

5yo's are 4-86 (5%)

An outlier was one 7yo winner from 29 to try (3%)

Profile

ALL had 1-13 runs in the preceding year

ALL had 5 runs or less that season (11 had just one run)

17 finished in the first  7 last time

15 finished in the first 5

18 had won over 6F+

19 had runover 6F+

20 last ran 90 days ago or less

DRAW

Not many clues but stall 1, with just one placed fromm 21 runs, looks like the stall of death!

For reasons unknown, stalls 3,4 & 6 have won 4.4 & 3 respectively. So 3 stalls won half the runnings.

Best trial

7 winners came from the Duke of York Stakes

INVINCIBLE ARMY won by 2.25 with YAFTA a 3L third 

PROJECTION was 9L last of 9

4 came from the Kings Stand Stakes

BLUE POINT beat Bataash by 1.75L with KACHY 8.5L ninth

2 past winners came from the Listed Hamilton Stakes at Windsor

THE TIN MAN (our slightly unlucky trends pick in this last year when fourth) was a running on 2L third over this trip at a  sharp track that wouldn't play to his strengths.

Trainers/Jockeys

James Fanshawe has won this twice

Has as AP O'Brien and Ryan Moore is 109/385 riding for him

James Doyle is 53/170 for Charlie Appleby

Sylvestre de Sousa is 19/64 for Andrew Balding

Danny Tudhope is 6/14 for SirMichael Stoute

Frankie Dettori 81/270 for John Gosden

PJMcDonald is 1957 for James Tate

RyanMoore 109/385

CONCLUSION

Shortlist:

INVINCIBLE ARMY has a perfect trends profile and won what is by far the best trial.

Former third in this (our 2017 trends pick) BLUE POINT also fits the trends bill and beat a top class horse in Battaash  to take the clear second best trial, the King's Stand, last season.

Beat the same horse in the same race just 4 days ago and horses reappearing within a week have a joint best strike rate of 4 wins from 45 to try (9%).

Is 4/5 here, 2-2 over 5F and 2-3 (close, fast finishing 3rd in the Commonwealth Cup of 2017 behid Carravagio and Harry's Angel – beaten 1.25L) but won two G3  over C/D.

Only tried a quick reappearance once, third run as  2YO, and was beaten a neck at 5/6 by a very good horse – so quick reappearance is an unknown factor.

However, to win this after a 4 day lay off must mean he won the King's Stand with a lot in hand!

Our trends pick last year, THE TIN MAN won this in 2017 in a fast time, is 3-9 at Ascot (beaten only once here – this race last year when a close fourth having not much luck in running – on Good or faster going). 8/12 on going that is Good or faster.

2 of his 3 wins here were in Group 1's

The going seems to be going his way. Big each way chance.

Two trends negatives. No horse has won this more than once over the period and only one 7yo  won from 29 to try.

Selection

I very reluctantly oppose the  best horse in the race (BLUE POINT) with the horse with the best trends profile – INVINCIBLE ARMY

1 POINT EACH WAY widely @ 5/1

Take BOG Friday night with Bet365 or Boylesport or widely, ater 8am Saturday

RESULT

Well, I was right be reluctant to oppose BLUE POINT who justified the wads of money that came in for him – though he was coming to the end of his rope at the line with DREAM OF DREAMS running a screamer and gaining with every stride.

Our trends selection, and winner of easily the best trial, INVINCIBLE ARMY who, as in last year's race, ran way below par (though has won a G3 here) and letme down for a place 5-fold!

Looks better suited by fasttracks like York last time. Here is the Racing Post's take:

"Invincible Army had every chance but couldn't pick up. Impressive when defeating Major Jumbo in a Group 2 at York last month, he ran a long way below that level of form without an obvious excuse."

Running Total = B/E

 

ASCOT 5.00

THE WOKINGHAM

CLASS 2 HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 22 RUNNINGS (23 WINNERS – one dead heat)

Market

4 winning favs and 2 second favs

17 came from the first 8 in the betting

15 came from the first 6

Winners at 33/1 twice, 25/1 x 2 @ 22/1. The remaining 17 were 20/1 or less

Weight

ALL 8-6 to 9-10

20 carried 8-9 +

20 carried 9-6 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL 87-106

20 were rated 91+

21 were rated 105 or less

Age

21 aged 4-6

5yo's are by far the best with 10 wins from 147 runners (7%)

4yo's are next best with 8-196 (4%)

6yo's are 3-120 (3%)

Not many 3yo's have tried, but of the 14 who did, none won

One 7yo, from 73, won.

Profile

ALL had 1-11 runs in the preceding year

ALL ran 0-4 times that season

22 posted a first 6 finish last time

19 finished in the first 4

ALL had won over 6F+

12 had won over 7F and one over a mile

19 were distance winners

20 last ran 60 days ago or less

Selhurstparkflyer won this twice, back to back in 1997/8

DRAW

Stall 1 has the best strike rate of 16% with 3 wins from 19 runs

Stalls 27 & 28 are next best on 2-20 (10%) and 2-17 (12%)

6 winners came from the 3 drawn nearest the inside

3 came from the 3 widest stalls

So, 9 of the 23 winners came from just 6 stalls

Best Trials

3 came from the 6F handicap at Epsom  on Derby day. Won by the 9yo, WATCHABLE

2 came from the York 6F handicap, mid May won by SOLDIER'S MINUTE

2 came from the 7F heritage handicap, the Victoria Cup, ar Ascot, won by current fav, CAPE BYRON

Trainers/Jockeys

Liam Keniry is 1/2 riding for John Ryan

Sylvestre de Sousa is 19/64 for Andrew Balding

Ryan Moore is 10/26 for Jeremy Noseda

CONCLUSION

I did like the look of  CAPE BYRON but he would be the highest rated winner in 23 years and only the third to carry more than 9-6

Shortlist:

With 5yo's having near twice the strike rate of 4  or 6yo's,andno other age winning, I narroewd it down to two;

TIS MARVELOUS is trained by sprint specialist Clive Cox and is a course as well as a distance winner.

Has a perfect trends profile (a run or, better still, win over 7F would have beenna bonus)

The other with a perfect trends profile is SUMMERGHAND

Selections:

I can't split them so will back them both each way.

Half a point each way TIS MARVELLOUS @ 22/1 with Bet365

Half a point each way SUMMERGHAND @ 20/1 with Bet365 & Boylesport

RESULT

As I half expected CAPE BYRON (who, on my initial trends conclusion was my only mention – then 10/1!) our trends selection in last year's Royal Hunt Cup over a mile, bolted up and looked the proverbial group horse in a handicap. Backed off the boards to so so too!

Our trends selection and last year's fourth in this, TIS MARVELLOUS, was only beaten one and a half lengths but caught a tartar.

The other trends selection finished very close behind in fifth (which I am going to count as placed as some bookies were paying out on the first 8!)

Racing Post Analysis:

"Tis Marvellous, fourth off 2lb lower a year ago, was well placed down the middle of the track and ran a fine race, just not being able to match a horse who is clearly better than a handicapper. He'll presumably be back for another crack next year."

"Summerghand, runner-up on both previous starts this season, remained on a competitive mark and he made swift headway from off the pace to reach a challenging position, only for his effort to fall off late"

Running total = +4.25 points

Staked           = 11 points –

ROI                = 135.1%