SATURDAY 29/6/19

NEWMARKET 3.15 

THE CRITERION STAKES

GROUP 3

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market:

8 favs won and 3 second favs

ALL came from the first 6 in the betting

Winners at 25/1 and 16/1 twice, but the other 19 were all 10/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-7 to 9-11

21 carried 9-7 or less (9-7 was last carried to victory in 1998)

ALL of the last 20 carried 9-5 or less. 

Official Rating (OR)

ALL the last 20 winners had an OR and the minimum was 105

Age

ALL aged 3-6

5yo's are best with a strike rate of 6-35 (18%)

4yo's are next best, on a 14% strike rate, with 9-63 

6yo's are 3-25 (12%) respectively

3yo's bring up the rear with 3-34 (9%)

Profile

21 had 1-9 runs in the preceding year

ALL had 0-4 runs that season, with 20 having a maximum of 3

18 finished in the first 9 in their last run – 5 won

ALL had won over 6F+

16 had won over 7F+, up to 1 mile and half a furlong

ALL had ran over 7F+, up to 10F

19 last ran 8-60 days ago

Best trial (with declared runners)

2 winners came from the John of Gaunt Stakes – Haydock 4.00 9/6/18 – SUEDOIS (8yo) was a 1.75L second.

BRETON ROCK (9yo) was a  further 6.5L back in seventh.

Trainers/jockeys

Richard Hannon has taken this race 3 times

Tom Dascombe is 2/6 with his 4yo+ runners here

Harry Bentley  is 17/61 for Henry Candy

James Doyle is 55/173 for Charlie Appleby

CONCLUSION

Shortlist.

The trends narrow it down to two.

TABARRAK was our trends selection last year but was sent on too soon (same jockey Saturday) finishing a good 2.5L fourth and 4L clear of the rest. Has a fine trends profile  again. Same jockey tomorrow, so may wait a bit longer this year.

Plus trainer, Richard  Hannon  has won this 3 times.

Also the second fav, GLORIOUS JOURNEY, has a near perfect trends profile and is trained by Charlie Appleby, who has an excellent record here with his older runners at the course and with James Doyle riding for him.

Selection:

This could go either way as both have near perfect trends profilies:

GLORIOUS JOURNEY has only won once from seven starts in the UK and that was over 6F in a class 4 novice at this course on racing debut.

Seems to like travelling as subsequent two wins were in France – one of them a 34K seven furlong  G3 – from just 4 starts.

No wins, 1 place and 4 unplaced in higher grade in the UK, though last effort, when second in what has turned out to be a red hot Listed race at Windsor, was outstanding form.

This was won, by 1L at level weights, by none other than Dream of Dreams who gave Blue Point such a fright in the G1 Diamond Jubilee stakes at Royal Ascot.

Though Dream of Dreams improved half a stone on  RPR's in that subsequent race, the line through GLORIOUS JOURNEY pays a great compliment to the form.

Is 0-2 on Good to Firm in the UK but that last time second was run in a time just half a second slower than standard and has run well in France on fastish ground in group races.

Another interesting piece of form is last year's Craven Stakes over 1m on the Rowley  Mile course when not far behind future Derby  hero, Masar and only 4L behind third placed Roaring Lion.

TABERRACK has never won at this level , though has won 4 listed events. No win, one place and three unplaced in G3's.

Is 5-11 at this trip and 2-3 on Good (though I suspect it will be faster going tomorrow) and 3-10 on Good to Firm.

The doubt is the course. He is 0-5 at Newmarket but has placed 3 times.

As I said, he was our trends selection for this last year but, having vied for the lead, seemed to get outstayed up the hill. I put that down to maybe kicking on too soon, but could be he was just outstayed up this tough uphill finish.

I wouldn't want to put you off either, but, much as it pains not to try to recoup losses with the same horse as last year, I think GLORIOUS JOURNEY's form as a touch of class about it that nothing in this race has so far matched.

1 point win GLORIOUS JOURNEY @ 100/30 with Bet365

RESULT

2nd at 7/2, beaten a neck fair and square by the G1 7yo (not a stats horse) LIMATO