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Northumberland Plate 2019

SATURDAY 29/6/19

NEWCASTLE 3.35

THE NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE

HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Generally an open race with 5 favs winning and two second favs

16 winners came from the first 8 in the betting

2 winners at 33/1 and one at 25/1. All the rest were returned 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-13 to 9-10

20 carried 9-5 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 85-107

19 rated 102 or less

Age (represented Saturday)

ALL aged 4-9

8yo's have the best strike rate with 2 winners from 13 runs (14%)

6yo's have the next best strike rate but with more winners from a much bigger sample 6-79 (8%)

4yo's are next best with 7-153 (5%)

5 yo's are 4-99 (4%)  

7yo's are poor trends runners with just 1-48 (2%).

Profile

20 ran 3+ times in the past year

20 ran 0-3 times that season

19 finished in the first 5 last run

21 had won over 12F+

18 had won over 14F+

21 had run over 2 miles or more

21 had their last run 8-60 days ago

Best trials

4 came from the ASCOT STAKES in which TIME TO STUDY finished 4.75L third

3 came from the Chester Cup, won in good style by 6L by MAKING MIRACLES with WHO DARES WINS in second.

SPEEDO BOY was 15L further back in 7th with TIME TO STUDY another half length back in 8th

SHABEEB pulled up not long after 7 out.

DRAW

13 were drawn 1-7

9 came from the lowest 4 in the draw

Trainers/jockeys

Tom Geatrex is 1/2 riding for Saeed bin Suroor

CONCLUSION

Given that 19 of the  last 22 winners were rated 102 or less, I have concentrated on  this with racecards nuberered 9 to 20.

Applying all  the  trends leaves me with one that is very nearly a trends horse and another with a perfect trends profile.

Shortlist:

KING'S ADVICE has  had 3 runs and 3 wins this flat turf season, but  won in April on the all weather. So I am not sure if it qualifies on the 3 runs or less stipulation – as 20 of the last 22 winners did.

Also, no run over 2m – unlike 21 of the former winners.

TIME TO STUDY is the only horse in the race who has a perect trends profile.

Selection:

I love horses with the winning habit and KING'S ADVICE has won all his 6 runs (3 on the all weather and 3 on the flat turf) since moving to Mark Johnston's yard in March.

I am loathe to oppose, but he has been a little too busy lately (6 runs since March 2nd) to have a typical trends profile for this and his lack of a run – though staying well  enough when winning on his first attempt over 1m6F last time – over 2m are just  enough to put me off. 

Currently fav, and probably the one to beat.

However, this is a trends blog and I am going for the horse that fits the bill perfectly. There is not one trends doubt about  TIME TO STUDY, who was a good third in the best trial at Royal Ascot last time, and whose trainer has a good record with quick returners.

1 point each way TIME TO STUDY @ 14/1 with Bet365

RESULT

TIME TO STUDY wasn't helped by the wide draw of 15, in retrospect.Had to be tucked in near the back and never got into it.

Winner, WHO DARES WINS, ticked all the trends boxes but is a 7yo (1-49)

 

 

 

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