YOU TOO CAN CHANGE HALF YOUR LOSERS INTO NON RUNNERS EASILY, LEGALLY AND PROFITABLY!

Learn How With This Free Ebook

  • INSURE your bets against losers
  • DRASTICALLY SHORTEN YOUR LOSING RUNS - THEORETICALLY TO ZERO!
  • LENGTHEN YOUR WINNING RUNS - THEORETICALLY TO INFINITY!
  • Recover Your 'Losing' Stake AFTER Your Selection Has 'Lost'

First 200 - NO SHARING!

FREE DOWNLOAD

YES, PLEASE, SEND ME THE FREE EBOOK. ALSO SIGN ME UP FOR YOUR ONCE OR TWICE WEEKLY BULLETINS INCLUDING FUTURE FREE OFFERS.

Your personal information and privacy is 100% safe and secure!

Your personal information and privacy is 100% safe and secure!

Old Newton Cup 2019

SATURDAY 6/7/19

HAYDOCK 3.15

OLD NEWTON CUP

HANDICAP

CLASS 2 HERITAGE

LAST  22 RUNNINGS

Market:

2 favs and 2 second favs won

18 came from the first 7 in the betting

Winners at 40/1, 25/1, 16/1 & 14/1, all the other 18 were 12/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-12 to 9-10

21 (including the last 16) carried 8-6+

20 carried 9-4 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 77-104

19 rated 97 or less

21 rated 85+

Age

21 aged 4-6

4yo's are best with 14-150 (9%)

6yo's are next best with 3-47 (6%)

5yo's are 4-81 (5%)

There has been one winning 7yo from 24 to try (4%)

Profile

17 had 2-8 runs in the preceding year

19 had 1-5 runs that season

18 finished in the first 9 last time

11 finished in the first two – 7 won

21 had won over 1m2.5f +

20 had run over 1m4f+

ALL last ran 90 days ago or less

DRAW

Not especially interesting.

The usual proximity to the rail looks to have a small advantage with 5 winners coming from the inside draw (1-3) and 4 from the widest 3. So, nearly half the winners from just over a third of the usual number of stalls.

Those drawn in the middle have won disproportionately too, with 2 and 3 each coming from stalls 7 and 8 respectively. That's 5 winners from around a tenth of the stalls.

These are kind of tie breaker stats. After checking all other trends and all other things being equal, I might decide on the basis of the draw.

Best trial

Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot is by far the best trial with 5 winners coming from that race. 

AQUARIUM was 4.5L seventh with BYRON FLYER just a nose (1L better off) further  back in 8th.

LUCIUS TIBERIUS was a further 1.25L (1lb worse terms today)back in 10th.

Trainers

Mark Johnston has won 3 of the last 6 runnings and has had 23 winners from 82 runners in the past 2 weeks

Charlie Appleby has had 10 winners from 24 runners in the past fortnight and  is 3/10 with his 4yo+ winners at Haydock

John Gosden is 13/44 in the last 14 days

Willie Haggas is 15/51 over the same period and Daniel Tudhope is  35/105 riding for him.

James Given is 1/3

As is John  Best

Alistair Rawlinson is 1/1 riding for Heather Main

CONCLUSION

This looks like a two horse race, on the face of it, with the first two in the betting at 4/1 and 9/2 then 12/1  bar.

However, they can be taken on from a trends perspective as the current fav, FIRST ELEVEN,  would be winning off a 5lbs higher mark than any winner in the past 22 years. Yard in great form though.

Second fav, AL MUFFRIH, another whose trainer's horses are flying at present and whose jockey has a great record riding for him, also has trends negtives in that he has never won beyond 10F nor run over 12F+

If we look at the horses that are 12/1 or less at the moment, there is only one who look like possible trends picks.

With 19 of the past 22 winners rated 97 or less, 98 rated BOMBYX is the only horse priced 12/1 or less (19 of the last 22) with an otherwise perfect profile.

No real form or stats pluses, but first time visor may bring some improvement.

Backed in from  16/1 into 12/1 this afternoon (Friday).

Very much the least worst of the possible trends horses  and minimum stakes advised. Therefore:

Half point each way BOMBYX – best priced 14/1 @ Bet365 and Boylesport (both pay out at BOG on bets taken the night before).

TAKE BOG

Next post:

Previous post: