OLD NEWTON CUP
CLASS 2 HERITAGE
LAST 22 RUNNINGS
2 favs and 2 second favs won
18 came from the first 7 in the betting
Winners at 40/1, 25/1, 16/1 & 14/1, all the other 18 were 12/1 or less
ALL carried 7-12 to 9-10
21 (including the last 16) carried 8-6+
20 carried 9-4 or less
Official Rating (OR)
ALL rated 77-104
19 rated 97 or less
21 rated 85+
21 aged 4-6
4yo's are best with 14-150 (9%)
6yo's are next best with 3-47 (6%)
5yo's are 4-81 (5%)
There has been one winning 7yo from 24 to try (4%)
17 had 2-8 runs in the preceding year
19 had 1-5 runs that season
18 finished in the first 9 last time
11 finished in the first two – 7 won
21 had won over 1m2.5f +
20 had run over 1m4f+
ALL last ran 90 days ago or less
Not especially interesting.
The usual proximity to the rail looks to have a small advantage with 5 winners coming from the inside draw (1-3) and 4 from the widest 3. So, nearly half the winners from just over a third of the usual number of stalls.
Those drawn in the middle have won disproportionately too, with 2 and 3 each coming from stalls 7 and 8 respectively. That's 5 winners from around a tenth of the stalls.
These are kind of tie breaker stats. After checking all other trends and all other things being equal, I might decide on the basis of the draw.
Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot is by far the best trial with 5 winners coming from that race.
AQUARIUM was 4.5L seventh with BYRON FLYER just a nose (1L better off) further back in 8th.
LUCIUS TIBERIUS was a further 1.25L (1lb worse terms today)back in 10th.
Mark Johnston has won 3 of the last 6 runnings and has had 23 winners from 82 runners in the past 2 weeks
Charlie Appleby has had 10 winners from 24 runners in the past fortnight and is 3/10 with his 4yo+ winners at Haydock
John Gosden is 13/44 in the last 14 days
Willie Haggas is 15/51 over the same period and Daniel Tudhope is 35/105 riding for him.
James Given is 1/3
As is John Best
Alistair Rawlinson is 1/1 riding for Heather Main
This looks like a two horse race, on the face of it, with the first two in the betting at 4/1 and 9/2 then 12/1 bar.
However, they can be taken on from a trends perspective as the current fav, FIRST ELEVEN, would be winning off a 5lbs higher mark than any winner in the past 22 years. Yard in great form though.
Second fav, AL MUFFRIH, another whose trainer's horses are flying at present and whose jockey has a great record riding for him, also has trends negtives in that he has never won beyond 10F nor run over 12F+
If we look at the horses that are 12/1 or less at the moment, there is only one who look like possible trends picks.
With 19 of the past 22 winners rated 97 or less, 98 rated BOMBYX is the only horse priced 12/1 or less (19 of the last 22) with an otherwise perfect profile.
No real form or stats pluses, but first time visor may bring some improvement.
Backed in from 16/1 into 12/1 this afternoon (Friday).
Very much the least worst of the possible trends horses and minimum stakes advised. Therefore:
Half point each way BOMBYX – best priced 14/1 @ Bet365 and Boylesport (both pay out at BOG on bets taken the night before).