SATURDAY 13/7/19

NKT 3.30

BUNBURY CUP

HANDICAP

CLASS 2 HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 22 RUNNINGS 

Market

5 favs have  won and 1 second  fav  has won.

18 came from the first 8 in the betting

Winners at 25/1 & 20/1 but the other 20 were 16/1 or less

Weight

All winners carried between 8 – 8  and 9 – 10.

Official Rating (OR)

All  winners had an Official rating between 86 – 105

Age

20 winners  were aged 4-7

4yo's are best for winners with 8 – 144 ( 6% )

5yo's are 5 -105 (5%)

6yo's have the best strike rate of 7% with 5-73

Profile

21/22 winners have run 5 – 13 times in the last year

All winners have ran between 2 and 6 times that  season.

20/22 won between 7f and 8 1/2f 

20/22 winners won at the distance (7f) 

All winners have last ran within . 8 – 60 days.

16/22 finished in the 1st 8 last time out.

14/22 finished in the 1st 6 last time out – only 2 won!

Only MINE won this more than once- as a 5, 7 & 8yo

Best trial race for the Bunbury  is The Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot ( 7 winners came from that race). 

VALE OF KENT was 2.5L seventh with SO BELOVED a further 3/4L ninth.

Trainers

Richard Fahey has won this 3 times in the last 8 years.

Michael Wigham is 4/12 at the course and his 4yo+ runners are 3/9 here

Mark Johnston is 12/39 here on the Newmarket July course

Shane Kelly is 1/3 riding for Roger Fell

CONCLUSION

Not an awful lot of clues really. I have a shortlist of 3 but, in truth, any one of 10 could win.

Shortlist:

Last year's winner, BURNT SUGAR has to be on the shortlist.

Mine landed this for the second of his three runs as a 7yo (2-37, 5%), so not impossible to win back to back

ZAP is trained by the race's top trainer, Richard Fahey, who has won 3 of the last 8 renewals. Fits most of the trends except , at the current price of22/1, would be the second highest  priced winner in 23 years.

Been backed from 33/1 though, and if going 16/1 or less would be very interesting.

VALE OF KENT finished a close seventh in by  far the best trial.

8th last time not ideal, but within the trends limits and is trained by Mark Johnston who is 12/39 here with his 4yo+ runners here. Als no harm  that Frankie takes the ride – as he did on one of Johnston's 2 winners today, to add to his winner on Thursday,

Selection:

In an uninspiring trends race (other than the good record (7 winners) runners from the Royal Hunt Cup, I am taking Mark Johnston to maintain his good record at the course and at this meeting.

Half point each way – VALE OF KENT @ 12/1 Boylesport (will pay out on  BOG prices on bets taken tonight.

RESULT

VALE OF KENT was backed in from 12's to 13/2. Made all and won with something in hand.

A good advertisement for the Ryoal Hunt Cup form.