SATURDAY 13/7/19

NEWMARKET 4.40

JULY CUP

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Good race for favs with 8 winners, but not so for second favs with just one. The market has consistently got it right between the top two in the betting.

18 came from the first 5 in the betting

Winners at 50/1, 22/1 & 20/1, but the other 19 were all 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-13 to 9-6

Official Rating (OR)

15 had an OR and ALL were rated 107+

9 of the last 10 had OR's of 113+

Age

ALL aged 3-6

3yo's best with 9 wins from 89 runs (10%)

5 & 4yo's not far behind on 5-63 (8%) and 7-102 (7%) respectively

6yo's have a poor record with 1-32 (3%)

Profile

19 had 1-7 runs in the preceding year

18 had 1-3 runs that season

19 finished in the first 5 last time – 7 won

18 had won over 6F+

19 had run over 6F+

17 were distance winners

21 had their last run 16-60 days ago

Best trials

6 ran in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. DREAM OF DREAMS was a head second with TEN SOVEREIGNS 2.25L back in fourth.

5 ran in the King's Stand Stakes where FAIRYLAND was 3L fifth. 

2 past winners ran in the Commonwealth Cup, which is quite a feat as that Royal Ascot G1 has only been run 5 times! ADVERTISE won.

Trainers/jockeys

AP O'Brien has won this 4 times and Wayne Lordan is 1/2 riding for him. 

Henry Candy is 6/18 in the past 14 days with his runners

Danny Tudhope is 6/16 riding for Sir Michael Stoute

Frankie Dettori is 4/1 for Martyn Meade

James Doyle is 58/180 for Charlie Appleby

Harry Bentley is 19/58 for Henry Candy

CONCLUSION

TEN SOVEREIGNS was our trends pick for one of the best trials for this, the Commonwealth Cup, when finishing 2.25L 4th .

Trained by the race's top trainer, so not lightly opposed. But it is hard to see why he would turn the form around with the winner, ADVERTISE.

The three 3yo fillies are rated less than 113 (minimum for 9 of the past 10 runnings)

3yo's have a small advantage in terms of strike rate and the one with the best chance looks to be current fav, ADVERTISE.

Shortlist:

On strike rate, runners in the Commonwealth Cup have the best strike rate and ADVERTISE represents that form.

DREAM OF DREAMS was a good second in the trial which is best in terms of numbers (6 former winners of this ran in that race)

CAPE BYRON (our first instinct when we sent out the trends the Tuesday before that race on Saturday – and 10/1 at the time!) was a facile winner of the Wokingham at Royal Ascot.

He is probably a Group 1  horse –  but this is a hot Group 1!

The clock is very interesting with the Commonwealth Cup and the Wokingham being won in exactly the same time, on the same day.

DREAM OF DREAMS, with a little more luck in running might have lowered the colours of Blue Point in a time of 1;14.42, exactly the same time as easy winner of the Wokingham;

CAPE BYRON (drifting like a barge now for some reason – probably misconceptions about going preferences)won in exactly the same time "easily"

Those races were on the Saturday, when the ground rode fast.

ADVERTISE won the Commonwealth Cup in a time of 1:11.48 on the Thursday, when there was more juice in the ground.

Selection:

On form and the clock, it may well be close, but the trends point clearly to the 3yo, last time winner who won what is turning out a great trial for this – the Commonwealth Cup.

1 point win ADVERTISE @ 3/1  everywhere. If betting tonight, use bet365 or Boylesport as they pay out at BOG on bets struck  the night before.The others only pay  on bets struck after 8 am on the day of the race.

TAKE BOG

RESULT

Right about 3yo's (5 ran and ALL finished in the first 5) right about the Commonwealth Cup as an upcoming trial. But wrong about WHICH 3yo and the fav was second (8 former favs .won).

TEN SOVEREIGNS had different, front running, tactics applied today to play to his stamina and never looked in danger to land the 10/1 into 9/2 gamble for 'the lads'.

Our horse, ADVERTISE, beat the rest fair and square, but I think we just saw this year's Champion sprinter today.