WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT
LAST 21 RUNNINGS
Favourites have won 6 times and 2nd favs twice (13%)
3rd favs fare a little better with 4/22 ( 18% SR).
Overall 56% of winners have come from the first three in the betting ( including joints – co favs 2nd favs etc)
1st and 2nd favs have won with odds between 9/2 and 6/1 ( 25% S/R)
16 came from the first 5 in the meeting
Winners at 100/1, 28/1, 25/1 & 20/1. The remaining 17 were 16/1 or less
ALL carried 7-12 to 9-4
Official Rating (OR)
5 of the last 7 winners had an OR
ALL 5 had OR's of 75-88 while the other was rated 104
All are 2 year olds
All previous winners had ran between 1 to 5 times . Those who had 3 runs have yielded 11 winners from 125 runners (9% S/R), by far (double) the best record of the others.
ALL had won at the distance between once and four times.
ALL ran between 5f and 6f previously.
19 finished between 1st and 8th on previous run – 9 won
ALL ran within the last 8 to 60 days.
Best races to use as a guide for this race are three of the 2yo races at Ascot.
The Listed Windsor Castle Stakes has provided 4 winners.ELECTRIC LADYLAND was arond 3L 7th with TAXIWALA a further 1.25L back in 8th.
CHARLEMAINE was another 7L back in 18th.
The Norfolk Stakes has given us 3 past winners. VENTURA REBEL was a neck second
Trainers/Jockeys with runners
Richard Fahey has won this race 3 times in the last 6 runnings.
Richard Hanoon Jnr has won 2 of the last 5 runnings – and his dad won it 4 times!
Boring, but the fav, VENTURA REBEL, with his perfect profile including 3 runs) and his very near miss in one of the best trials the G2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot is unopposable.
You won't get rich backing him 11/8 generally, in from 13/8 this morning, but makes for a good banker in multiples.
2 points win VENTURA REBEL @ 11/8 bet365
Only 14/1 winner, BETTY'S HOPE spoiled the Fahey party with him having the second ,third and fourth!
Unfortunately our trends selection, VENTURA REBEL was 4th home at 5/4 fav.
Ascot and Newbury are nothing like each other. The latter is the stiffest flat track in the country whereas the former is a flat galloping track. Just under half the time Royal Ascot has been a good guide for this, but not today.
I don't think the softish ground made any difference, although he was never really travelling and was pushed along from a long way out,
They seemed to go no pace, which was borne out by the race being run 1.21 secs per furlong slower than Racing Post standard the slowest time of the day.
He didn't have great luck in running but, when he got daylight, he just plugged on.
Worth another chance over 6F now, I think.