SAT 20/7/19

NEWBURY 3.40

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT

CLASS 2

LAST 21 RUNNINGS

Market

Favourites have won 6 times  and  2nd favs twice (13%)  

3rd favs fare a little better with 4/22 ( 18% SR).

Overall 56% of winners have come from the first three in the betting ( including joints – co favs 2nd favs etc)

1st and 2nd favs have won with odds between 9/2 and 6/1 ( 25% S/R)

16 came from the first 5 in the meeting

Winners at 100/1, 28/1, 25/1 & 20/1. The remaining 17 were 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-12 to 9-4

Official Rating (OR)

5 of the last 7 winners had an OR

ALL 5 had OR's of  75-88 while the other was rated 104

Age

All are 2 year olds

Profile

All previous winners had ran between 1 to 5 times . Those who had 3 runs have yielded 11  winners from 125 runners (9% S/R), by far (double) the best record of the others.

ALL had won at the distance between once and four times. 

ALL ran between 5f and 6f previously.

19 finished between 1st and 8th on previous run – 9 won

ALL ran within the last 8 to 60 days.

Best Trials

Best races to use as a guide for this race are three of the 2yo races at Ascot.

The Listed Windsor Castle Stakes has provided 4 winners.ELECTRIC LADYLAND was arond 3L 7th with TAXIWALA  a further 1.25L back in 8th.

CHARLEMAINE was another 7L back in 18th.

 The Norfolk Stakes has given us 3 past winners. VENTURA REBEL was a neck second

Trainers/Jockeys with  runners

Richard Fahey has won this race 3 times in the last 6 runnings.

Richard Hanoon Jnr has won 2 of the last 5 runnings – and his dad won it 4 times!

CONCLUSION

Boring, but  the fav, VENTURA REBEL, with his perfect profile including 3 runs) and his very near miss in one of the best trials the G2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot is unopposable.

You won't get rich backing him 11/8 generally, in from 13/8 this morning, but makes for a good banker in multiples.

2 points win VENTURA REBEL  @ 11/8 bet365

RESULT

Only 14/1 winner, BETTY'S HOPE spoiled the Fahey party with him having the second ,third and fourth!

Unfortunately our trends selection, VENTURA REBEL was 4th home at 5/4 fav.

Ascot and Newbury are nothing like each other. The latter is the stiffest flat track in the country whereas the former is a flat galloping track. Just under half the time Royal Ascot has been a good guide for this, but not today.

I don't think the softish ground made any difference, although he was never really travelling and was pushed along from a long way out,

They seemed to go no pace, which was borne out by the race being run 1.21 secs per furlong slower than Racing Post standard  the slowest time of the day.

He didn't have great luck in running but, when he got daylight, he just plugged on.

Worth another chance over 6F now, I think.