SAT 27/7/19

YORK 3.15

Skybet York Stakes ( 3yo + )

Group 2 

Last 13 Runnings

Market

 Favs won 6 and second favs twice

ALL came from the first 7 in the betting

7 were retruned 4/1 or less.

Weight

ALL carried 8-6 to 9-6

11 carried 9-2 to 9-5

Official Ratings (OR)

All had an OR of 102+

11 were rated 112+

Age

6yo's have the best strike rate of 20% with 3-15

5yo's are on 15% with 4-27

4 and 7yo's have a 13% strike rate with with 4-30 and 1-8 respectively

3yo's are 1-10 (10%)

Profile

12 past winners had ran between 3 and 7 times in the last year.

ALL ran 4 times or less that season.

12 finished in the first 5 last time out 

10 finished in the first 3 – 4 won

9/13 winners had ran last time out between 16 to 30 days.

None won after a 7 day lay off or less lay off and 61-120 days

11 had won over 1m1F+

12 previous winners had ran between 10f and 12f 

Best trial

The Coral Eclipse ( San 1m 2f ) has provided  5 winners of this race. REGAL REALITY was 2.75L third.

Connections/Trainers/ Jockeys,

Daniel Tudhope is 35/109 riding for Willie Haggas

Dane O'Neill is 6/21 for Mark Johnston

Conclusion

Shortlist;

ADDEYB fits all the trends but the days since run is a weak spot.

Only one former winner last ran 31 – 60 days ago

REGAL REALITY has a flawless trends profile with his last run a good third behind wonder mare, Enabled, in the best trial – the Coral Eclipse.

That was 21 days ago and horses having their last run 16-30 days ago won 9 renewals.

Selection:

For the reasons above REGAL REALITY – 6/4 @ BET365 & BOYLESPORT (the only 2 big bookies who pay out on BOG terms on bets struck the night before racing).

Tke BOG

RESULT:

REGAL REALITY ran like a drain to finish a 5.25L fourth.

I don't think the ground could be blamed as  the race was run in a time just 0.57 secs per furlong slower than standard. May have wanted it faster – as in the Eclipse – but I suspect there is some temperament problem as he had to be led down to the start again.