WEDNESDAY 31/7/19

GOODWOOD 3.35

SUSSEX STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

11 favs and 4 second favs won

8 of the last 11 favs won

21 came from the first 5  in the betting

Two 20/1 winners,  but the remaining 20 were 9/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-13 to 9-8

Official Rating

17 had an OR and ALL 16 were rated 110+

16 of those 17 had OR's of 113+

8 of the last 10 winners had OR's  of 121+

Age

ALL aged 3-7

7yo's are best on strike rate with 2 winners from 6 runners (33%)

3yo's have have by far the  best overall record though, with 12-72 (17%)

5 & 6yo's are next best with 3-24 (13%) and 1-9 (11%) respectively

4yo's bring up the rear with 4-57 (7%)

Profile

ALL had 1-7 runs in the preceding year

ALL had 1-5 runs that season

ALL finished in the first 3 last run

20 finished in the first two last time – 13 won 

ALL had won over a minimum of 7F

ALL had ran over a mile plus

Only 2 had won over further

18 were distance winners

ALL last ran 16-60 days ago

DRAW

9 winners came from the 3 widest drawn ( 6, 7 & 8 in this case)

Best trials (with runners)

The St James's Palace Stakes has produced 8 winners of this.CIRCUS MAXIMUS won with TOO DARNED HOT just over 1L back in third.

PHOENIX OF SPAIN was a further 2.5L back in sixth.

The Queen Anne Stakes has produced 5 winners. LORD GLITTERS won a neck from BEAT THE BANK.

ACCIDENTAL AGENT refused to race

Galileo sired 4 out of the last 16 winners (2 were the all time great Frankel). CIRCUS MAXIMUS is the only representative

Trainers (represented)

Aidan O'Brien has won this 5 times

John Gosden  is 11-29 with his last fortnight runners

CONCLUSION

ALL of the last 22 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and were 9/1 or less. They also all posted a first 3 finish last time(13 won)

Shortlist:

TOO DARN HOT is the only  one with a rating of 121+. But a win in the Deauville G1 Jean Pratt over 7F is an unusual prep. Yard in red hot form though.

CIRCUS MAXIMUS, ON 117, (the last 2 winners were rated 110 and 119 respectively) won our best trial last time

LORD GLITTERS (OR 117) won the second best trial, the G1 Queen  Anne at Royal Ascot, last time.

Selection:

All the above 3 fit the trends bill but CIRCUS MAXIMUS has the advantage of winning our best trial, being trained by the race's best trainer and sired by Galileo, whose offspring have by far the best record in this. Just the OR niggle, but the last 2 failed on that and it may be the start of a new trend.

Holds the fav on that form.

Drawn 6 is an advantage too.

5/2 widely but check terms.

Only take non runner  no bet

Or back BOG with Bet365 or Boylesport who will both payout on BOG ters for bets struck today for tomorrow's racing.

RESULT

One off the shortlist won – but the wrong one!

TOO DARNED HOT proved he had trained on and gets a mile well. He saw our selection, CIRCUS MAXIMUS (9/2), off by half a length with a length and a quarter back to the third.