WEDNESDAY 31/7/19

GOODWOOD 3.35

SUSSEX STAKES

GROUP 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

11 favs and 4 second favs won

8 of the last 11 favs won

21 came from the first 5  in the betting

Two 20/1 winners,  but the remaining 20 were 9/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-13 to 9-8

Official Rating

17 had an OR and ALL 16 were rated 110+

16 of those 17 had OR’s of 113+

8 of the last 10 winners had OR’s  of 121+

Age

ALL aged 3-7

7yo’s are best on strike rate with 2 winners from 6 runners (33%)

3yo’s have have by far the  best overall record though, with 12-72 (17%)

5 & 6yo’s are next best with 3-24 (13%) and 1-9 (11%) respectively

4yo’s bring up the rear with 4-57 (7%)

Profile

ALL had 1-7 runs in the preceding year

ALL had 1-5 runs that season

ALL finished in the first 3 last run

20 finished in the first two last time – 13 won

ALL had won over a minimum of 7F

ALL had ran over a mile plus

Only 2 had won over further

18 were distance winners

ALL last ran 16-60 days ago

DRAW

9 winners came from the 3 widest drawn ( 6, 7 & 8 in this case)

Best trials (with runners)

The St James’s Palace Stakes has produced 8 winners of this.CIRCUS MAXIMUS won with TOO DARNED HOT just over 1L back in third.

PHOENIX OF SPAIN was a further 2.5L back in sixth.

The Queen Anne Stakes has produced 5 winners. LORD GLITTERS won a neck from BEAT THE BANK.

ACCIDENTAL AGENT refused to race

Galileo sired 4 out of the last 16 winners (2 were the all time great Frankel). CIRCUS MAXIMUS is the only representative

Trainers (represented)

Aidan O’Brien has won this 5 times

John Gosden  is 11-29 with his last fortnight runners

CONCLUSION

ALL of the last 22 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and were 9/1 or less. They also all posted a first 3 finish last time(13 won)

Shortlist:

TOO DARN HOT is the only  one with a rating of 121+. But a win in the Deauville G1 Jean Pratt over 7F is an unusual prep. Yard in red hot form though.

CIRCUS MAXIMUS, ON 117, (the last 2 winners were rated 110 and 119 respectively) won our best trial last time

LORD GLITTERS (OR 117) won the second best trial, the G1 Queen  Anne at Royal Ascot, last time.

Selection:

All the above 3 fit the trends bill but CIRCUS MAXIMUS has the advantage of winning our best trial, being trained by the race’s best trainer and sired by Galileo, whose offspring have by far the best record in this. Just the OR niggle, but the last 2 failed on that and it may be the start of a new trend.

Holds the fav on that form.

Drawn 6 is an advantage too.

5/2 widely but check terms.

Only take non runner  no bet

Or back BOG with Bet365 or Boylesport who will both payout on BOG ters for bets struck today for tomorrow’s racing.

Thursday 1/8/19

Goodwood 3.35

Qatar Nassau Stakes

Group1 ( 3yo + )

Last 22 runnings

Market

12 favs won

20/22 winners have come from the 1st 3 in the betting.

20/22 winners have won at odds of between 1/2 and 6/1.

Weight

17/22 winners have won carrying 8-13 or less.

All the 3yo fillies are carrying 8 -13.

Official Ratings

Of the 18 with an OR. ALL were rated 103+

14 were rated 110+

8 of the last 10 had an OR of 111+

Age 

ALL aged 3-5

3yo have won 16/22 runnings from 94 runners (17% SR)

4yo have won 4/22 runnings from 60 runners (7%)

5yo have won 2/22 runnings from 15 runners (13%)

Profile.

18/22 winners finished 1st – 2nd  or 3rd in their previous race (9 won)

NONE finished outside the first 8 and only 1 outside the first 6

ALL last ran between 16 and 90 days ago

21/22 winners ran between 2 and 7 times in the last year.

ALL ran 1-5 times that season

20/22 winners ran between 2 and 5 times in that season.

ALL had won over 1m+

DRAW

No  help as most renewals have had 6 or 7 runners max.

Best Trials (with runners)

The Coronation Stakes, a G1 over a mile at Royal Ascot, has provided 3 winners. HERMOSA was 1.5L second.

The Epsom Oaks gave us 2 winners. MAQSAD was 10L eighth.

Trainers (with runners)

John Gosden has won this 4 times and 12 of his last 21 runners have won in the past two weeks.

Aidan O’Brien has won this 4 times

Michael Stoute has won this 3 times

Conclusion.

Taking the first 3 in the betting and 6/1 or less as the starting point (but including the two other at 7/1 and 8/1 in case theyare backed):

Shortlist

Fav, 3yo  Coronation Stakes second, HERMOSA, ticks all the trends boxes but has had 8 runs in the last year. Only one of the past 22 had so many runs in the past year.

MEHDAAYIH drops backin trip but no tends problem other than an OR of 108. 8 of the las 10 had an OR of 111+

Well beaten Oaks 8th, MAQSAD is another with all the trends bar one. But only one horse has finished 8th or worse in its last run and gone on to win this. Also rated below 111,  on 109.

French raider, CHANNEL, has a perfect trends profile and won a half million pounds G1 at Chantilly last time.

RAWDAA is another with a perfect trends profile and her neck second in a Royal Ascot G2 last time was paid a complement today with the 2L third, I Can Fly, running a crakcing third behind Too Darned Hot and CIrcus Maximus in the G1 Sussex Stakes.

Selection

Both the above have an excellent chance on trends, but the age advantage tips it towards the French horse for me.

1 point each way with Bet65 or Boylesport @ 7/1

CHANNEL

TAKE BOG

FRIDAY 2/8/18

GOODWOOD 3.00

GOLDEN MILE HANDICAP

CLASS 2

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

4 favs won – but so too did 7 second favs!

19 came from the first 7 in the betting

17 came from the first 6

Winners at 25/1, 22/1 & 20/1, but the other 19 were 14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-1 to 9-10

19 carried 8-12+ (including all the last 11 winners)

21 carried 9-7 or less

Offiicial Rating (OR)

ALL rated 87-106

19 had OR’s of 95+

19 were rated 103 or less

Age

ALL aged 3-7

3yo’s have the best record with 5 winners from 56 runners (9%)

4yo’s are 10-148 (7%)

5yo’s  are 4-105 (4%)

6yo’s are 2-56 (4%)

7yo’s are 1-35 (3%)

Profile

18 had 4-10 runs in the preceding year

19 had 2-6 runs that season

17 posted a first 6 finish last time

12 finished in the first 3 with 5 winning and 5 finishing second

20 had won between a mile and 1m 3f

ALL had run between those two trips

21 were distance winners

ALL last ran 60 days ago or less

DRAW

15 past winners came from the first 5 stalls

Trainers/Jockeys (with runners)

Mark Johnston has won 5 renewals

David Menuisier is 2/5 with his runners over the last 14 days

Dominic FfrenchDavis is 1/3 with hers over the same period

Frankie Dettori is 3/8 riding for Willie Haggas

James Doyle is 59/194 for Charlie Appleby

Ryan Moore is 22/63 for Willie  Haggas

Sylvestre de Sousa is 2/4 for Nick  Littmoden

Best trial

Sandown Coral Challenge (1m handicap) on July 7th, has provided us with 5 winners in the last 21 runnings, by far the best trial.

MOJITO beat ESCOBAR 1.25L into second in that race.

KEY VICTORY  was a further half length back in 4th with HISTORY WRITER another 1.75L back in 5th .

ZHUI FENG was a further 2.5L 9th and LUSH LIFE was another 2L last of 14.

CONCLUSION

Choosing from the first 7 in the betting and/or priced under 14/1 (19 of the last 22 winners) :

I will kick  myself if ESCOBAR wins as he was our trends pick in this last year.

He fits all the trends again but for having had 11 runs in the past year. 18 had a maximum of 10 runs.

Not an impossible task but short of the perfect trends profile he had last year.

The fav falls on the number of runs trend too. Had just one run in the past year (ultra impressive win) which also offends against the seasonal runs trends.

This leaves a shortlist of 3:

Shortlist:

Mark Johnston has won this 5 times and his DARK VISION ticks all the trends boxes bar two – no distance win and no win between 1m and 1m 3F.

Was unlucky when 4th in a hot 50K Newmarket handicap last time over 10f. But 20 had run between those two distances and 21 were distance winners.

INDEED has a perfect trends profile.

WHAT’S THE STORY ran a cracker when a hampered 3rd last time in the 125K John Smith’s Cup over 10.5F at York.

He has a very nearly perfect profile, though a first 2 finish last time would be a little better than his third.

Also has a plum draw in 2

Selections:

I can’t split the latter 2 so:

1 pt each way INDEED – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Boylesport

1 pt each way WHAT’S THE STORY – 14/1 @  Bet365 & Boylesport

TAKE BOG

SATURDAY 3/8/19

GOODWOOD 3.40

THE STEWARDS CUP

CLASS 2

HERITAGE HANDICAP

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

6 favs won and 4 second favs

17 came from the first 6 in the betting

Winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 & 20/1 twice, but the remaining 17 were returned  14/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-2 to 10-00

ALL of the last 13 carried 8-9+

20 carried 9-9 or less

Official Rating (OR)

ALL rated 82-111

21 were rated 92+

9 of the last 12 were rated 100+

7 of the last 8 had OR’s of 102+

20 were rated 104 or less

Age

21 were aged 3 to 6

The remaining winner was 7 (from  58 seven year olds to try).

3, 4 and 5yo’s are joint best with 3-57 (5%), 8-177 (5%) and 6-146 (5%) respectively

6yo’s are 3-115 (3%)

Profile

ALL ran 4-13 times in the preceding year

ALL ran 2-8 times that season

17 finished in the first 9 and 16 in the first 7 last time out

12 finished in the first two with 8 winning

ALL had won over a minimum of 6F up to one mile half a furlong

Only 5 had won over further than 6F though

ALL were distance winners

21 last ran 60 days ago or less

DRAW

Gives no clue at all.

Best Trials

3 winners came from the Gigaset International Stakes at Ascot– LAKE VOLTA was 6L and three heads 9th

2 came from the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket in mid July. Spanish city was just over 1L 4th with  LAKE VOLTA  a neck back in fifth

Trainers

Richard Fahey has won this 3 times

Mark Johnston twice

CONCLUSION

As the race has got more valuable it has attracted better horses. As Matt Chapman would say, this is more like a listed handicap nowadays.

Consequently, as group class horses have been attracted by the prize money, the higher rated horses have done more and more well with 9 of the last 12 rated 100+

Then again, only 2 were rated above 104 which knocks out the top two (one of them a 6yo)

Looking for a 3, 4 or 5yo that meets all  the trends criteria, given the more recent OR trends, narrows it down to 2:

Shortlist:

AIR RAID

SUMMERGHAND

Selections:

Half point each way AIR RAID – 20/1 @ Boylesport (pay out at BOG on overnight bets)

Half point each way SUMMERGHAND – 14/1 @ Labroke  and Coral but, NB, they won’t honour prices taken before 8 am Saturday. Best to wait for Bet3565 and Boylesport to price up as they  will.

TAKE BOG