SATURDAY 17/8/19

RIPON 3.15

GREAT ST WILFRED

HERITAGE HANDICAP 

CLASS 2

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Fav won 5 but second fav only twice

21 came from the first 10 in the market

19 came from first 10 in the betting

Winners at 25/1, 20/1 twice & 18/1. The other 18 were 16/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 7-13 to 9-10

19 carried 8-12+

20 carried 9-4 or less

Official Rating

ALL rated 75-101

19 had OR’s of 98 or less

Agea

ALL aged 3-7

4yo’s are top, both in number of wins and strike rate, with 8-117 (7%)

Joint second on strike rate are 3yo’s and 7yo’s with 2-32 (6%) & 3-54 (6%) respectively

Next best are 5 yo’s are 6-111 (5%)

6yo’s are 3-82 (4%)

Profile

19 ran 3-13 times in the preceding year

19 ran 1-9 times that season

18 posted a first 7 finish last time

14 were in the first 4 last time – 6 won

20 had won over 6F+

ALL ran over 6F+

18 were distance winners

20 last ran 30 days ago or less

DRAW

Doesn’t seem much in it but the lowest drawn 10 have provided 12 winners compared to 8 who won form the highest drawn 10.

So a definite advantage for the lowest drawn half of the field.

Best Trials

No stand out, but 3 past winners came from the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood. SUMMERGHAND was 3L  4TH

The handicap here at Ripon, ran in early August, has produced 2 winners. LAHORE won it this year

Trainers/Jockeys

Richard  Fahey has won this twice in the past 6 years

David O’Meara has won 3  of the last 8

The Easterbys (Tim twice and Mick  once)  had 3 wins

Philip Makin is 1-2 at the course

Graham Lee is 1-2 riding for David Barron

CONCLUSION

16/1 or less, carrying 8-12 to 9-4, rated 98 or less and a distance winner with a first 7 finish or better last time, looks like it will be the most likely to find the winner if it is a trends winner.

If we add the 30 days or less trends (20), that leaves us with the following:

Shortlist:

LAHORE (drawn 19) who, having dwelt, and from a high draw, came from behind around the outside to win over C/D last time.

That race has been the second best guide to this. It was run on Good to Soft, which is the official going on Saturday.

Up in class here but has a perfect trends profile and his trainer is 1-2 at this course.

MUSCIKA (6) was only a length second in that race, having tried to front run. 3lbs better in.

The way the winner won, I can’t see the weight pull deciding things. But the draw might!

Another with a perfect trends profile and a trainer who has won this 3 times.

BELATED BREATH (16) is another with a perfect profile. But all 5 of his wins have been on flat tracks. Though he run well at Goodwood. Draw not ideal either.

CITRON MAJOR (1) Is a bit of an unknown quantity on ground with give in it. Not disgraced over 6.5F on G/S when third last season.

Seems to like it here though as he won over C/D as a 3yo by 5L in a time 1.38 seconds faster  than LAHORE’S win.

CONCLUSION

I wouldn’t want to put you off any of the 4 but I like the two course and distance winners.

If the clock is anything to go off, CITRON MAJOR looks to have a great chance.

But, I can only assume  the lack of runs on G/S or softer is because his trainer thinks faster ground is better (though has cheekpieces on for first time tomorrow)

Therefore I am going to chance the slight bias against high drawn horses and go for LAHORE who won with plenty in hand over C/D last time.

Half point each way CITRON MAJOR – 16/1 @ BET365 & BOYLESPORT

Half point each way LAHORE – 10/1 @ Bet365

TAKE BOG at the above two bookies

RESULT

Great run from one of our two trends picks, CITRON MAJOR (25/1 into 18/1 SP), who finished third. Fourth placed

MUSCIKA (14/1) was also on our shortlist of 4. Second placed

SUMMERGHAND (15/2) was our recent Stewards Cup pick 

The other trends selection, LAHORE, wasn’t helped by the draw (whether he would have been good enough to run into a place if drawn low is a moot point. 

The winner is group class. A trends buster in that the highest rated winner in the previous 21 years was rated 101 – DAKOTA GOLD won off 110! 

I don’t know if there was a draw bias or just the winner was so classy, but he won his side of the race by 6L! Did he win despite the draw (2nd, 3rd and 4th were all drawn 1-6) or was that just coincidence?