GREAT ST WILFRED
LAST 22 RUNNINGS
Fav won 5 but second fav only twice
21 came from the first 10 in the market
19 came from first 10 in the betting
Winners at 25/1, 20/1 twice & 18/1. The other 18 were 16/1 or less
ALL carried 7-13 to 9-10
19 carried 8-12+
20 carried 9-4 or less
ALL rated 75-101
19 had OR’s of 98 or less
ALL aged 3-7
4yo’s are top, both in number of wins and strike rate, with 8-117 (7%)
Joint second on strike rate are 3yo’s and 7yo’s with 2-32 (6%) & 3-54 (6%) respectively
Next best are 5 yo’s are 6-111 (5%)
6yo’s are 3-82 (4%)
19 ran 3-13 times in the preceding year
19 ran 1-9 times that season
18 posted a first 7 finish last time
14 were in the first 4 last time – 6 won
20 had won over 6F+
ALL ran over 6F+
18 were distance winners
20 last ran 30 days ago or less
Doesn’t seem much in it but the lowest drawn 10 have provided 12 winners compared to 8 who won form the highest drawn 10.
So a definite advantage for the lowest drawn half of the field.
No stand out, but 3 past winners came from the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood. SUMMERGHAND was 3L 4TH
The handicap here at Ripon, ran in early August, has produced 2 winners. LAHORE won it this year
Richard Fahey has won this twice in the past 6 years
David O’Meara has won 3 of the last 8
The Easterbys (Tim twice and Mick once) had 3 wins
Philip Makin is 1-2 at the course
Graham Lee is 1-2 riding for David Barron
16/1 or less, carrying 8-12 to 9-4, rated 98 or less and a distance winner with a first 7 finish or better last time, looks like it will be the most likely to find the winner if it is a trends winner.
If we add the 30 days or less trends (20), that leaves us with the following:
LAHORE (drawn 19) who, having dwelt, and from a high draw, came from behind around the outside to win over C/D last time.
That race has been the second best guide to this. It was run on Good to Soft, which is the official going on Saturday.
Up in class here but has a perfect trends profile and his trainer is 1-2 at this course.
MUSCIKA (6) was only a length second in that race, having tried to front run. 3lbs better in.
The way the winner won, I can’t see the weight pull deciding things. But the draw might!
Another with a perfect trends profile and a trainer who has won this 3 times.
BELATED BREATH (16) is another with a perfect profile. But all 5 of his wins have been on flat tracks. Though he run well at Goodwood. Draw not ideal either.
CITRON MAJOR (1) Is a bit of an unknown quantity on ground with give in it. Not disgraced over 6.5F on G/S when third last season.
Seems to like it here though as he won over C/D as a 3yo by 5L in a time 1.38 seconds faster than LAHORE’S win.
I wouldn’t want to put you off any of the 4 but I like the two course and distance winners.
If the clock is anything to go off, CITRON MAJOR looks to have a great chance.
But, I can only assume the lack of runs on G/S or softer is because his trainer thinks faster ground is better (though has cheekpieces on for first time tomorrow)
Therefore I am going to chance the slight bias against high drawn horses and go for LAHORE who won with plenty in hand over C/D last time.
Half point each way CITRON MAJOR – 16/1 @ BET365 & BOYLESPORT
Half point each way LAHORE – 10/1 @ Bet365
TAKE BOG at the above two bookies
Great run from one of our two trends picks, CITRON MAJOR (25/1 into 18/1 SP), who finished third. Fourth placed
MUSCIKA (14/1) was also on our shortlist of 4. Second placed
SUMMERGHAND (15/2) was our recent Stewards Cup pick
The other trends selection, LAHORE, wasn’t helped by the draw (whether he would have been good enough to run into a place if drawn low is a moot point.
The winner is group class. A trends buster in that the highest rated winner in the previous 21 years was rated 101 – DAKOTA GOLD won off 110!
I don’t know if there was a draw bias or just the winner was so classy, but he won his side of the race by 6L! Did he win despite the draw (2nd, 3rd and 4th were all drawn 1-6) or was that just coincidence?