SATURDAY 19/10/19

ASCOT 1.35

CHAMPIONS SPRINT CUP

GROUP 1

LAST 22 WINNERS

Market

5 favs won and 4 second favs

18 former winners came from the first 5 in the betting

Winners at 28/1 & 20/1 but the remaining 20 were 12/1 or less

Weight

ALL carried 8-9 to 9-4

20 carried 8-12+

21 (including  all  the last 19) carried 9-2  or less

Official Rating

18 had an OR and all of them were rated 100+

17 of the 18 had an OR of 107+

Age

ALL aged 3-6

3 & 4yo’s have a 12% strike rate with 8-7 & 9-83 respectively

5yo’s are 4-57 (7%)

6yo’s have a poor record with 1-46 (2%)

Profile

ALL ran 3-9 times in the last year

21 ran 3-7 times that season

21 finished in the first 5 last time

6 won and 7 were second last run

ALL had won 6F+

20 were distance winners

ALL last ran 1-120 days ago

DRAW

No discernible advantage

Best Trial

The HAYDOCK SPRINT CUP has provided 8 winners

HELLO YOUMZAIN beat the THE TIN MAN half a length.

BRANDO was a further 2L back in 4th 

Trainers/Jockeys

James Fanshawe has won this twice from 14 runners

Paul Hanagan has had 2  winners from 5 runners in this  race.

CONCLUSION

If we take those from the  first 8 in the betting and priced 12/1 or less, who ran less  than 3-7 times  this season  and 3-9   times in the past year while finishing in the  first 5 last time.

Given that 3  and 4 year olds  have won 17 of the last 22 runnings,  with a 12% strike rate compared  to 7%  for 5yo’s, we will  concentrate on these.

This leaves:

Shortlist:

ADVERTISE

HELLO YOUMZAIN

SELECTION

I will be surprised if modern Ascot’s excellent draining  course  rides Heavy  tomorrow.

HELLO YOUMZAIN is a winner on Soft, was 2.5L third behind ADVERTISE in  the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot over C/D (much faster  ground), and, most importantly, won  by far the best trial.

The former is the selection with the latter (unproven on anything slower than Good   to Soft) the danger.

1 point each way HELLO YOUMZAIN @ 6/1 @ Bet365