CHAMPIONS SPRINT CUP
LAST 22 WINNERS
5 favs won and 4 second favs
18 former winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Winners at 28/1 & 20/1 but the remaining 20 were 12/1 or less
ALL carried 8-9 to 9-4
20 carried 8-12+
21 (including all the last 19) carried 9-2 or less
18 had an OR and all of them were rated 100+
17 of the 18 had an OR of 107+
ALL aged 3-6
3 & 4yo’s have a 12% strike rate with 8-7 & 9-83 respectively
5yo’s are 4-57 (7%)
6yo’s have a poor record with 1-46 (2%)
ALL ran 3-9 times in the last year
21 ran 3-7 times that season
21 finished in the first 5 last time
6 won and 7 were second last run
ALL had won 6F+
20 were distance winners
ALL last ran 1-120 days ago
No discernible advantage
The HAYDOCK SPRINT CUP has provided 8 winners
HELLO YOUMZAIN beat the THE TIN MAN half a length.
BRANDO was a further 2L back in 4th
James Fanshawe has won this twice from 14 runners
Paul Hanagan has had 2 winners from 5 runners in this race.
If we take those from the first 8 in the betting and priced 12/1 or less, who ran less than 3-7 times this season and 3-9 times in the past year while finishing in the first 5 last time.
Given that 3 and 4 year olds have won 17 of the last 22 runnings, with a 12% strike rate compared to 7% for 5yo’s, we will concentrate on these.
I will be surprised if modern Ascot’s excellent draining course rides Heavy tomorrow.
HELLO YOUMZAIN is a winner on Soft, was 2.5L third behind ADVERTISE in the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot over C/D (much faster ground), and, most importantly, won by far the best trial.
The former is the selection with the latter (unproven on anything slower than Good to Soft) the danger.
1 point each way HELLO YOUMZAIN @ 6/1 @ Bet365