THURSDAY 26/12/19

KEMPTON 3.05

KING GEORGE VI CHASE

GRADE 1

LAST 22 RUNNINGS

Market

Great race for the front of the market with 12 favs winning. 4 second favs won too

18 came from the first three and they ALL came from the first 5 in the betting

A 25/1 shot won but the remaining 20 were 12/1 or less, with 19 returned 8/1 or lower

Weight

ALL on 11-10

Official Rating (OR)

16 had an official UK/Irish handicap mark, including 11 of the last 12 winners

Of these, ALL 16 were rated 156+ and 14 had OR’s of 162+

Age (represented)

ALL aged 6-11 with the exception of 10yo’s who are 0-21

6 & 7yo’s have the best strike rate of 16% with 4-25 & 7-45 respectively

11yo’s are next best (Kauto Star’s fifth and last win, and 25/1 winner Edredon Bleu) on 15% with 2-13

9yo’s are next best with 5-37 (14%)

Profile

20 had 3-8 runs in the past year

ALL ran 4 times or less that season

20 finished in the first 4 last run – 15 won

18 won 3 miles or further

ALL had run over 3 miles plus

15 had won over further

16 were distance winners

20  last ran 16-60 days ago

Great race for multiple winners with four winning this twice and the great Kauto star winning it 5 times!

Best trial

The G1 Betfair chase over 3 miles one and a half furlongs at Haydock a month ago provided 10 past winners!

LOSTINTRANSLATION won.

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has won this 10 times (5 with Kauto Star) – including 6 of the last 11

Colin Tizzard is has won 2  out of the last 4 runnings

In fact, Nicholls, Henderson and Tizzard have won all the last 13 runnings!

Venetia Williams yard is in cracking form with 13 wins from 27 runner in the last 2 weeks

Willie Mullins is 5-16 over the same period with his runners

CONCLUSION

CYRNAME falls down on having never run further than 2m5F

FOOTPAD isn’t out of it either. Another with stamina to prove though only attempt at 3M+ was in the 2017 Irish Stayers Hurdle when a not disgraced 18L third to Uknowhatimeanharry & that year’s Stayers Hurdle winner,Nicholls Canyon.

Impressive when winning 15L in a 2m6F in a listed race at Thurles and trainer is on the record as saying this could be a possible future Gold Cup horse.

Still has stamina to prove, but at 11/1, could be one for the ‘each way thieves’

Shortlist;

CLAN DES OBEAUX won this well last year.

Ran a cracker when beaten 4L in an 80K G1 in Ireland on seasonal reappearance (usually needs a race)

Problem is that was his third loss running since winning a weak looking 4 runner renewal of this last season.

Didn’t quite stay in the Gold Cup, then beaten 9L at Aintree over 3m1F by Kemboy.

This is his stiffest test so far and I am not convinced he has the stamina for a slog over 3m at a fast pace on the forecast going – nor that he really has the class. We will find out.

LOSTINTRANSLATION has a perfect trends profile and looks the business to me/

We went against him with Bristol de Mai for the Betfair Chase but won’t make that mistake again!

Robbie Power sat quiet out the back and absolutely cruised into the race 2 out. Ooozed class and beat a hard fit horse that was third in last year’s gold Cup – and made the Betfair Chase his own – 1.25L.

That was Britol de Mai’s Gold Cup – but not LOSTINTRANSLATION’S!

I get the impression there is more to come from this horse who is barely out of novice company.

Has a perfect trends profile/

Selection:

LOSTINTRANSLATION is the selection for all the reasons above.

2 points win LOSTINTRANSLATION – 2/1 @ WIDELY

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